24 Hours Later: Analysis of the 49ers loss to the Cardinals

Thoughts on the disaster that was yesterday + looking at the rest of the league.

Sep 14, 2020

San Francisco 49ers/YouTube

Yesterday was a day filled with overreactions, there’s no doubt - but can you blame anyone for that? Going from the dominant NFC West champs to losing in a low-scoring, low energy defeat is about the fastest way one can go from “Revenge Tour!” to “Trade Jimmy”. After sleeping on it, I’ve gathered my thoughts on what happened yesterday - and it’s bad. Let’s start off with the positives.

Defense

Say what you want, the 49ers defense played well - holding Kyler Murray and that explosive offense to just 24 points, especially being forced to play their highest snap total ever as a unit - that’s good football. Murray however, picked the 49ers apart, especially throwing outside the numbers and with his scrambling ability. The 49ers had 2 sacks and 4 TFLs the entire day, a massive shift from last season - that is not just DeForest Buckner being gone, that’s Dee Ford being utterly ineffective and slow for most of the game while barely playing above 40 snaps, whereas the rest of the defense nearly doubled that.

It’s embarrassing to even have this conversation, but it needs to be said: the 49ers traded a 2nd round pick and gave an $85M contract to a part-time player. Ford was available for a reason - he was not a good player against the run, he wanted a new contract, and most of all, he had knee arthritis. And still, the 49ers paid him, and now, he may be the reason why we are not able to resign Trent Williams or Richard Sherman next season. Ford will not make it as a 49er to next season - a failure by John Lynch and Co. He looked slow, and got stonewalled multiple times by a below average line at best. Melvin Ingram is on the market as we speak - If I’m John Lynch, I would go and try to get Ingram. Simply having a player play half your defensive snaps renders them useless. Dee Ford got shut down by D.J. Humphries.

Javon Kinlaw ironically also has knee arthritis, and he played a limited number of snaps where he had one assisted run stop. He also got pancaked and generally looked like how a rookie would, out of sorts and nervous, but he flashed as well. Bosa as usual was great, DJ Jones was decent, and Solomon Thomas had a couple flashes but nothing more. Kwon Alexander was borderline unplayable, another FA overpay by John Lynch, missing routine tackles and missing assignments. 'Warner looked a step too slow but that’s expected coming off the COVID list. Tartt might have been the best 49ers defensive player not named Bosa, he held his man, Dan Arnold, to just 21 yards on 2 catches. Ward didn’t miss any tackles which is what you want from your FS. Emmanuel Moseley was burnt toast all day, as the Cardinals exploited the Hopkins match-up to the fullest, and Sherman was OK but got burned by Fitz and Christian Kirk, he got lucky that Murray missed his throws to them.

Offense

The 49ers did not miss a beat on offense and continued their momentum, and by that I mean they played like how they did in the 4th quarter of the biggest game of their lives. Trading or cutting Jimmy/starting Mullens is an overreaction, that does not change just how terrible Jimmy was yesterday.

And let’s make this clear: after taking some time to reflect on it, it’s scary but needs to be said - the reason why there were so many overreactions to Jimmy G yesterday, is because he fulfilled our deepest and most engrained fears about him. If Jimmy G went out yesterday and was bad because he missed all his short throws, or didn’t execute any throws over the middle, everyone would be fine: Why? Because we know Jimmy G is good at those throws and we could easily attribute it to an off-game. This was different. Garoppolo has a couple of main criticisms in his game:

Staring down receivers
Throwing outside the numbers
Pushing the ball downfield
Stepping into throws
Pocket presence
“It”

He routinely missed receivers, Pettis and Bourne got behind the defense multiple times, but Garoppolo’s refusal to step into a throw renders his arm useless in the deep passing game. When he does not step into throws, he throws wobblers like the one that got broken up by Patrick Peterson. Throwing outside the numbers? He didn’t do it at all outside of a couple attempts, and most of them were broken up including a key throw to Trent Taylor which was extremely late. Pushing the ball downfield? He did it barely at all, with his only deep attempts coming from when he threw up prayers while rolling out. That’s another issue - despite playing 62 snaps, Jimmy Garoppolo exited the pocket a grand total of 3 times. The entire game. He was a statue, and Chandler Jones and the rest of that DL took advantage. Even more, those 3 times - one was a 9 yard gain, the other two were prayers he threw up. Of those two prayers, one nearly was intercepted, one was intercepted but called back due to a defensive pass interference, which if we are being real, had no effect on whether the ball would be picked.

The 3rd down factor, otherwise known as “it”. Despite being good on 3rd down last season, the 49ers were 2 for 11 on 3rd down yesterday. Abysmal.

The reason we all overreacted yesterday is because this game only confirmed his biggest criticisms and his biggest flaws - he looked like a below average game manager.

…the fact that he ended the game with the fifth-worst negatively graded throw rate and worst positively graded throw rate of the week says a lot about today's performance. - PFF

I saw a tweet yesterday the encapsulates the feelings of Jimmy G from yesterday.

dumb baseball and other stuff guy @whatmoney3000

@bomani_jones Looked like Jimmy G Not enough mistakes to make you think he's bad, not enough positive plays to make you think he's good. Classic 17th best QB in the game game

Kendrick Bourne was the best 49ers WR yesterday, both Dante Pettis and Trent Taylor were almost non-existent; however, both Pettis and Bourne got open multiple times with no targets, yet another issue with Jimmy G from yesterday. For someone with so much hype around them, Trent Taylor was invisible - zero impact on 3rd down. Garoppolo, in yet another negative, placed a simple screen pass to Kittle high, which ended up getting Kittle injured - thankfully, it does not appear to be serious though it easily could have been.

Now, many are quick to point out about Jimmy G, and frankly the entire 49ers performance:

We were missing our starting and backup C.
We were missing both starting WRs.
The air quality was terrible.
It was Week 1.

Grasu allowed zero pressures the entire day - surprisingly good, especially compared to the egg that Mike McGlinchey laid, and Grasu played better than Daniel Brunskill as well. The air quality was also terrible for the Cardinals, if anything the 49ers were used to it and should have been less affected. It was also Week 1, surprise, for every team in the league. Yet none of the big contenders in the NFL lost other than… the 49ers and Buccaneers, if you count them.

The WR argument is the only valid argument, and even that is shaky - Garoppolo even without 2 starting WRs still had his starting slot WR, the best TE and FB in the league, a good replacement in Bourne, and a top 3 LT at worst in Trent Williams. Not to forget Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, and Jordan Reed as well. He had absolutely zero shortage of weapons, a QB should not need two good to great WRs, the best TE in the league, the best FB in the league, one of the best LTs in the league, one of the best RB rooms in the league, and the best play caller in the league, as well as the best defense in the league last season - just to eke out a win against a young and inexperienced team like Arizona.

This game should not have been close, but it was. That’s why we pay Garoppolo excess of 25M per year. Not for him to game-manage and simply do his job, but for him to step up when the team is weak like yesterday. And he didn’t - and that is fundamentally the problem.

With that being said, it’s Week 1. Jimmy G has two very easy games against the Jets and Giants in the next two weeks, as well as a harder but still favorable matchup against the injury-devastated Eagles. 3 easy games to not just get back on track but do a 180, get better instead of worse. This team goes where Jimmy goes, and if last year’s Jimmy is his ceiling… I am not sure that is enough as this team is due for a massive talent exodus next season. Great QBs make up for good teams, that’s why Seattle, New England, etc. have been so good for so long, and that’s why teams like the Rams, Eagles, and more have not gotten back since. Jimmy is not in that category yet. But let’s be clear: there should not be talks about cutting Jimmy, or starting Mullens. No. As bad as Jimmy was, Jimmy at his best is still a good QB and there’s plenty of time for that to change.

The one thing not mentioned yet: playcalling. Both Saleh and Kyle Shanahan started off hot and cooled off, big-time especially in the 4th quarter. Hopkins didn’t draw a double team despite torching Moseley - you would think they would try and put Sherman on him to combat but nope. Shanahan abandoned the run as the game went on, and the passing game inside and that hurt the 49ers a lot; Raheem Mostert was destroying the Cardinals as was Jerick McKinnon but we simply did not see enough from them.

Around The NFL

As mentioned earlier, Brady and the Buccaneers took a big loss against the Saints in his first game - you might be asking? What’s the difference between that loss and ours? Brady just played his first game with the entire team. Jimmy has been here for 3 years.

Aaron Rodgers was on fire as was Russell Wilson, Rodgers threw for 364 yards and 4 TDs en route to a blowout of the tough Minnesota Vikings - Wilson threw for 322 yards and 4 TDs as well while completing a ridiculous 31 of 35 passes.
Gardner Minshew and Dwayne Haskins both led their teams to shock upsets over the Colts and Eagles respectively. Philip Rivers is done as a QB, as if last year was not enough proof. Minshew in particular played outstanding, completing 19 of 20 passes for 173 yards and 3 TDs.. Haskins started off bad but as the game went on got into rhythm, especially at the end - his arm talent is incredible, the ball jumps out of his hand.
Every team in the NFC West won, except us. Jared Goff looked good vs. the Cowboys with a couple usual mental lapses, Russell Wilson has started his MVP campaign, and we know the Murray story.
- Seahawks: Even with the price paid for Adams, he may play up to that value. 12 tackles, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits, a sack, and only one reception allowed. Incredible, especially with how clutch he seems to be, making big plays and tackles exactly when they need it. Wagner played well. On the offensive side, Chris Carson was elite especially in the passing game, 66 all purpose yards and 2 TDs. DK Metcalf had nearly 100 yards and caught a late TD on 4th and 5, and also dropped a TD as well - he’s only scratching the surface.
- Rams: Malcolm Brown had 100+ all purpose yards and 2 TDs, Robert Woods casually had 105 receiving yards, and Cam Akers looked good with some big runs and got stuffed a lot too. They have weapons. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey as usual dominated the game, Ramsey drew a questionable OPI call that ended up deciding the game, but nevertheless, the Rams defense looked very good as well.
- Cardinals: We know the story, but new addition Hopkins terrorized the 49ers secondary with 151 yards on 14 receptions, Kyler Murray nearly had a 100 rushing yards by himself, and in general the Arizona team beat the 49ers at every spot.

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