A Comprehensive Look into Jimmy G (Part 1) and Training Camp Day 6: Redemption and Revenge
Players have stepped up this offseason, will it translate in the regular season? Looking at some cut candidates. And a deep dive into the performance of Jimmy Garoppolo.
San Francisco 49ers/YouTube
(Scroll down if you want to skip the training camp summary) - Day 6 of training camp has wrapped up and boy, can the season start already? Jokes aside, the past few days have been hectic but promising, especially for a lot of young players and players with something to prove. We have already mentioned Dante Pettis as taking a massive step up so far, with Shanahan and Jimmy both complimenting his aggressiveness and physicality this offseason, and while the past 2 days for Pettis haven’t matched his five catch extravaganza 3 days ago, Pettis was targeted 7 times today. He did not catch any, but simply being targeted that much… shows Garoppolo is trusting him again, regardless of it being caught. Some people are quick to point out that this could be a regression to the mean, but a regression would be not being targeted. Being targeted means he was either getting open or Jimmy trusted him to come down with it, and while he didn’t catch any, that does not change the stark difference from past. Catches will come soon enough, he did not explicitly drop any targets and one was off a penalty as well.
Another player who stepped up in the past few days is Solomon Thomas. Niners fans have been waiting for a breakout season for a while, but in the absence of both DJ Jones and Jullian Taylor, Thomas has gotten snaps both at NT and the three-tech, and he played very well today. He “sacked” (non-contact) Jimmy during 11 v. 11 drills and had a TFL as well, showcasing the quickness and strength that got him drafted at #3. Even Grant Cohn, a known Thomas doubter, listed him in his “winners”, saying in his article:
Thomas replaced starter D.J. Jones, who has an injured shoulder -- more on him later. Thomas is much smaller than Jones, but still played surprisingly well against the run during team drills. The 49ers offense struggled to gain yards on the ground all morning, and Thomas was a major reason why.
Nick Wagoner, the 49ers website, all agreed that Thomas showed out. Another guy was Kentavius Street, who Nick Bosa complimented:
Another player stepping up is Tavon Austin. In my opinion, the favorite to win the final WR spot between JJ Nelson and Jaron Brown, Austin again played well with 2 big receptions including a toe-tap. Fun and explosive, Austin fits the Shanahan type of a versatile WR with YAC ability.
Finally, Jerick McKinnon had a great day, with a couple good runs and two impressive receptions. Since training camp begun McKinnon has looked 100%, with great speed and cutting ability. Even with Mostert likely getting the starting job, I would not be surprised to see McKinnon split snaps. Garoppolo and the rest of the QBs love having him in the backfield, he positions himself well, almost like a WR for his QB.
Kendrick Bourne also had a great practice with multiple targets and catches, including burning both Sherman and Witherspoon pretty bad. A classic Shanahan UDFA gem, Bourne has made himself a lock at WR.
Around the League
In the Stidham v. Cam battle up in the Northeast, Stidham has distanced himself. And by distanced, I mean that he has thrown 7 interceptions in the last 3 days and that the battle is over. Cam Newton as long as he is healthy will start. If that wasn’t already a guarantee.
Former 49ers defensive end/outside linebacker Aldon Smith has been turning heads at Cowboys training camp. For a guy who has not played since 2015, and has had too many issues off the field, the simple fact that Smith is now a legit candidate to start across DeMarcus Lawrence should speak for itself. 49ers fans know how good Smith is when healthy and locked in, and while he will 99% not be the same he was earlier in his career, personally I will root for him to turn his playing career and life around.
Yannick Ngakoue, who reports had indicated was supposed to be traded by yesterday, is… still a Jaguar. Either the “deal” fell through or it was never there, and chances are it was the latter, used as a negotiation tactic by the Jaguars FO. The Raiders have shown interest, but still no deal.
Candidates to be traded or cut on the roster
We are fast approaching the regular season, and some tough moves will have to be made by the Niners FO. Let’s take a look at some guys that may be under risk:
C.J. Beathard, QB - It’s been 3+ years and Beathard has shown… no improvement. He does not have any endearing qualities or traits outside of taking hits like a champ, but at this point, he takes too many, most of which are his fault. He has a strong arm but terrible timing and accuracy, limited to no mobility, and in general has been outplayed by UDFA Nick Mullens. If by some miracle the 49ers can get a late round/conditional pick, they have to take it. Beathard is what he is at this point, he is not going to step up.
Tevin Coleman, RB - He’s a great vet RB and a tough runner. But that cap hit is a lot, and with McKinnon healthy, Mostert taking over the #1 spot, Jeff Wilson Jr. playing his way into more snaps, and undrafted guys like JaMychal Hasty playing well during TC, Coleman may be expendable. A team like New Orleans, or even Los Angeles (Rams) would be a good fit, since he is ideally a 2nd RB who still gets a decent carry share. The Jets would also be a good fit.
Dee Ford, OLB/DE - He is elite when healthy. But he never is healthy. With guys like Yannick Ngakoue and Melvin Ingram available for trade, as well as someone like Jadeveon Clowney still a free agent, you have to assume the 49ers may be looking to get better at EDGE while getting rid of that contract. Ford’s cap hit is massive for a part-time player with knee tendinitis. But the bottom line is, Ford won’t be lasting till next season. If he somehow stays on the roster and healthy throughout this season, his cap hit is way too big to keep for his play, especially with extensions like Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, McGlinchey, and more coming up soon.
Ahkello Witherspoon, CB - Ideally he would be the #2 corner next to Sherman. But with the Niners looking to add some more man-to-man looks, as well as Moseley thoroughly outplaying Spoon last season, and now Verrett getting looks at CB before Witherspoon, the writing is on the wall. He can’t move inside to the slot CB, he is too long and not quick enough to stick with it inside, and he is not good enough on the outside to beat anyone else out. If a team comes calling, or an injury to a corner happens somewhere else, Witherspoon may be available.
Richie James Jr, WR - He is currently rehabbing, but with Trent Taylor, Kendrick Bourne, Dante Pettis, Jauan Jennings, and Tavon Austin all playing well this offseason, there is not a fit for him on the roster right now. A WR needy team like the Jets or Redskins could really use James, and the main reason James was kept, was for special teams. Austin, Pettis, Aiyuk, and Taylor all can play special teams/return kicks. He is a good player but there is no space on this roster anymore.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Confusing
I’ve had this article coming for a while. Part 1.
When you look at Jimmy Garoppolo’s stats on the surface, the criticisms don’t make sense. Garoppolo is called a game-manager while being the only QB that is top five in passer rating, TDs, completion percentage, and yards per attempt this season. Garoppolo statistically was one of the best QBs in the league last season, and easily one of the most accurate despite this dragging him down:
6 of his interceptions bounced off a WR’s hands
8th most drops despite being 29th in attempts
Lost the 2nd most yards to drops out of any QB in the league
The 26th ranked offensive line in pass block rate (per ESPN Stats)
And most of all, having barely any experience and coming off an ACL tear
By all means, Garoppolo played incredible. So why did I title this section “confusing”? Is it because he is not “clutch”? Wrong.
Tied for the most 4th quarter comebacks among all QBs
Best QB rating while trailing
Top 5 passer rating and QBR in the 4th quarter
3rd down conversion percentage: 1st
7-1 on the road
I don’t need to show more stats. Jimmy Garoppolo is a good QB. A great QB, and more than likely on his way to becoming an elite one, considering he was barely mobile last season coming off an ACL, and was in his 1st full season as a starter.
You might be wondering by now. Why did I title this section “confusing”?
Let’s break it down. Part 1 of this series is the statistical analysis, Part 2 will be more stats and some film breakdown as well.
One of the first things that sticks out to me is the difference between Shanahan this season and in 2016. I don’t think Shanahan is a run-first guy, contrary to popular belief, and his refusal to put the ball in Jimmy’s hands… hurt us.
The Falcons ran 574 passing plays in 2016.
The 49ers ran 514 passing plays this year.
That is nearly a two game!!!! difference in passing attempts, considering Jimmy G averaged about 30 passing attempts a game. More stats:
Matt Ryan had 68 deep ball attempts in 2016.
Jimmy Garoppolo had 36 deep ball attempts this season (29th in the NFL).
32! 32 more deep ball attempts. That is not just whether a QB is a gunslinger or not, it is if a QB has deep ball plays drawn up for them. Clearly a big difference. Jimmy G’s deep ball completion percentage was the best in the league this season. That is not necessarily because he is good at it, it’s because he barely did it at all.
Confusing. Jimmy Garoppolo had the 2nd (or 1st depending on your source) best completion percentage under pressure last season. Great! He was top 5 in yards per attempt against pressure. Even better! But then you see this:
Passer Rating from clean pocket: 109.4
Passer Rating under pressure: 63.8
That is a whopping 45.8 passer rating difference under pressure, 3rd most in the league. These stats change upon source but the difference is painfully clear.
Worse, from PFF:
One other stat, however, better shows how impacted he was when the pass protection broke down. The 49ers quarterback committed 12 "turnover-worthy" plays on only 174 drop-backs last season, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the league.
Jimmy G’s playoff (not just Super Bowl) passer rating under pressure: 3.5
Yes you read that correctly. 3.5.
Jimmy G’s PFF grade when not pressured is 90.2. When pressured, that drops to 45.6.
Taking all of these into count, the reason why we lost the Super Bowl becomes more and more clear. It’s not because he got “injured”, or because of bad calls, or because of the defense. In fact, if you really look at the stats, Jimmy Garoppolo outplayed Patrick Mahomes up until the 4th quarter, with Mahomes throwing 2 picks, and fumbling (but not losing) twice. Why did he play so bad in the 4th?
The Chiefs knew two things.
Kyle Shanahan did not trust Jimmy Garoppolo to throw deep and the Chiefs dared Jimmy to throw deep, and it paid off (Sanders overthrow).
Jimmy Garoppolo under pressure is a different player.
And it’s clear. They waited for it. They lulled Jimmy and Kyle until the 4th quarter and boom, they hit them with the pressure and it paid off massive dividends.
I said earlier that Garoppolo by most if not all metrics is one of the most accurate QBs in the league. And it’s true. But one phrase that clearly comes to mind with Jimmy is “hit or miss”.
Despite being 19th in total pass attempts, 29th in passing plays per game, and 29th in deep ball attempts per game, Jimmy Garoppolo had:
43 dangerous throws (7th in the league)
28 interceptable passes (also 7th in the league)
That is very bad especially considering how often he does not take risks. He does not throw the ball downfield, his coach calls a below average amount of passing plays, and he is below average in pass attempts, yet he is 7th in these metrics.
Average Air Yards Differential (AYD)
Air Yards Differential is calculated by subtracting the passer’s average Intended Air Yards from his average Completed Air Yards. This stat indicates if he is on average attempting deep passes than he on average completes.
Next-Gen Stats has a statistic that is pretty cool, called Average Air Yards Differential. It evaluates if the player’s deep passing is proportionate to their completion percentage. At the top of this list are players like Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, along with other names. At the bottom of the list. Literally the last player.
Jimmy Garoppolo with a -1.1 differential. Not good.
Another statistic people point to: yards per attempt. The issue is that this is a flawed statistic. It only takes into account yards and.. attempts. This includes things like yards after the catch, and more. Jimmy was top 5 in this metric. Switch to Average Intended Air Yards, which is defined by Next-Gen Stats as:
IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’. Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass.
This is a much more accurate indicator of how much a QB throws downfield. At the top of this list are guys like Matt Stafford, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers, hovering around 10 IAY (give or take about 1.).
Jimmy G? 6.5 IAY, 3rd worst in the league.
Every metric man. Every advanced metric tells a whole different story. Us 49ers fans love to tout his ability to convert on 3rd down and move the sticks. Next-Gen Stats has a stat for that too. Air Yards to the Sticks, or AYTS.
Air Yards to the Sticks shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer. The metric indicates if the passer is attempting his passes past the 1st down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to make yards after catch.
The best players by AYTS include Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, hovering around 0 to 1. Jimmy G?
-2.5 AYTS, 2nd worst in the league, only behind Teddy Bridgewater.
So what is the point of all this? A lot of these stats can be attributed to:
Garoppolo coming off an ACL injury and being inexperienced.
Shanahan running a West Coast offense predicated on YAC.
Jimmy G is 28 years old. He has been in the league for more than 6 years now, even if he has not had much starting experience, he damn well has had experience in this league. One would think within 6 years that you have adjusted to the level of competition and speed of the game. The ACL injury? A legit argument, a lot of recovering is learning to trust that knee again. He was already 1 year past his injury for most of the season.
As for the West Coast argument? Fair, but take this into account. According to this, the teams that run the West Coast offense include:
The Colts, Rams, Raiders, Chargers, Eagles, Falcons, Vikings, Packers, Bears, WFT, Giants, Chiefs, Broncos, Bengals, and of course the 49ers.
Those QBs and those offenses weren’t close to Garoppolo in most of these metrics. I don’t consider that argument strong.
Conclusion:
Jimmy Garoppolo is a top 15 QB in this league at the moment. He also has a ton of work to do, and while he does not have much game experience, he does have NFL experience (if that makes sense). For every stat or good statistic I find, there is an equally damning one on the other side. The “game manager” label? Not entirely inaccurate although definitely not the full story. That’s why I use the word confusing. Part 2 will have some more eye-test and more stats to back up the argument, but for now, this is it. Jimmy has a ton of potential and for his first full season as a starter coming off an ACL tear, it was pretty good. But there is a lot that remains to be seen.
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Awesome article, a lot of this is ringing true...
One thing you left out on Jimmy, well two, though his beauty has probably been discussed enough. To our knowledge, he's never diddled a goat. A quality that should be respected and appreciated in your teams QB.