What does Kyle Shanahan do for his QBs, and what do his QBs do for him? + Looking at non-QB options at #12 overall.
An interesting playcalling difference with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
Santa Clara, CA - Most 49ers fans for years have heard the narrative that Kyle Shanahan’s offense is complicated, hard to run, and one of the best schemes in football. The latter of which, is unequivocally true. But this offense, at it’s core, is very QB-friendly. With a high percentage of screen passes, short passes, one-read throws, the eye-test would not support this being a “complicated offense”. Sure, the terminology is definitely tough. But Kyle Shanahan, let’s face it, makes his QBs better. Much better.
Matt Ryan is the primary example of this. While he’s been a very good QB for most of his career, he was never thought of as an MVP-caliber player - until Kyle Shanahan arrived in 2017.
That tells the story, doesn’t it. Ryan had two seasons under Kyle Shanahan before Shanahan headed to SF - his first was considered average, his second - his MVP season. And the statistical discrepancy is quite clear. Everything goes up: completion, yards, TDs, lesser INTs, more yards per attempt. Ryan’s intended air yards were far higher than Garoppolo in 2019.
However, while looking closer into playcalling, I found something troubling about 2019’s offense under Jimmy Garoppolo. To demonstrate this, I looked back at all of the offenses that Shanahan playcalled for in recent history, without Garoppolo as the majority of the starter.
SF in 2020: 593 passes, 444 rushes (57.18% vs 42.82%) - Most of the season was with Mullens or Beathard at the helm, with injured Jimmy G making a few appearances. They had a top 10 defense.
1st down: 218 passes vs 252 rushes (34 more rushes)
SF in 2018: 563 passes, 415 rushes (57.57% vs. 42.43%) - After the first three games, Mullens and CJ Beathard took over as the full-time QBs. The majority of the time, it was not Jimmy Garoppolo.
1st down: 221 passes vs. 242 rushes (21 more rushes)
SF in 2017: 624 passes vs. 409 rushes (60.41% vs. 39.59%) - The QB at the helm was Brian Hoyer, then CJ Beathard, until Garoppolo came in for the final 5 games.
1st down: 237 passes vs. 223 rushes (14 more passes)
ATL in 2016: 564 passes, 415 rushes (57.61% vs. 32.39%) - This was MVP Matt Ryan, along with the best RB duo in football and a great defense.
1st down: 239 passes vs. 245 rushes (6 more rushes)
ATL in 2015: 663 passes (61.33%) vs. 418 rushes (38.67%) - This was the “bad” Matt Ryan, who threw 21 TDs to 16 INTs. He wasn’t really that bad, but regardless, the common outlook on 2015 was that it was not a successful season.
1st down: 255 passes vs. 237 rushes (18 more passes)
As you can see, pretty consistent numbers. This isn’t a run first offense. Based on five years of sample size with good and bad QB play. Based on 2015 through 2020, with the exception of 2019 (Being a Garoppolo as the starter for the majority of the time season), the numbers come out to be as such.
Shanahan offenses from 2015-2018, and 2020:
3007 passes (58.9%) vs. 2101 rushes (41.1%).
1st down: 1140 passes (48.7%) vs. 1199 rushes (51.3%)
It’s pretty on par with the average for each season, there’s not much volatility, with the pass percentage hovering around 58% and the rush percentage around 41%. I include first down numbers because one of the hallmarks of a non-predictable offense is not running it every time on first down, and as you can see, there wasn’t much of a big difference, with it being pretty even - although Shanahan favored the run a bit more. This stayed consistent throughout the bad QBs, good QBs, bad running game, good running game.
Now, for the 2019 numbers.
453 passes (50.96%) vs. 436 rushes (49.04%)
1st down: 159 passes (39.9%) vs. 239 rushes (60.1%)
This was with Jimmy Garoppolo fully healthy. With George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, and Deebo Samuel. These numbers trouble for a couple of reasons: Shanahan in those previous years, with all sorts of combinations of bad offenses, bad run games, good run games, and good passing games - his playcalling largely remained almost the same.
But with Garoppolo at the helm and healthy, the pass rate on both all downs, and specifically 1st down, drops eight percent! That might seem little, it’s not. It’s not because the 49ers were playing ahead of all teams either, otherwise, the 2015 and 2016 Falcons would be around the same numbers.
So when someone like Steve Young, who worked in this offense, or “anonymous” NFL GMs mention that the offense that Kyle runs now is not what he wants to actually run… I don’t doubt it. Again, 8% is massive.
Obviously, this is a highly nuanced discussion and there are far more factors that go into this playcalling discrepancy, although QB might be the biggest one. 2019 is the outlier season here. The 49ers had the best defense in the league in 2019, but they also had a top 10 defense in 2020, and a very good defense for the Falcons back in 2016.
It’s clear that Kyle Shanahan simplifies the game for all of his QBs, through the easy difficulty of throws and reads, the reliance on the run game to set up the passing game, the lack of downfield passing or outside the numbers passing - and letting the game come easier. My question is that if that’s true, and there’s pretty sound evidence that suggests this is not what he wants to do, do the 49ers consider that in their discussion about the QB position? The answer is a yes. Consideration isn’t amounting to a full decision, and clearly, there is far more to this debate than “Jimmy is good” vs. “Jimmy is not good”. But it shouldn’t be understated that a HC should have the utmost confidence in their QB to go out there and execute. I’m not sure Kyle Shanahan has that with Garoppolo, yet. It could still come. But it’s unlikely with Garoppolo’s age and four years of learning this offense.
Non-QB Options with the #12 overall pick
49ers fandom has spent months talking about Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, and as of recent, DeShaun Watson and Matthew Stafford - the #12 overall would be key. But the possibility of Garoppolo being the starter remains high, if not certain after the Stafford news.
If the 49ers were to keep the #12 overall, their options would still be very good.
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Farley, in my opinion, is the best CB in the class. Most 49ers fans who are in favor of a CB believe that the big name, Patrick Surtain, is the guy to draft. I disagree. While Surtain is a good fit with the 49ers and certainly isn’t a bad player, his long speed paired with his questionable man coverage makes him more of a zone corner than man. And that’s OK. But when you draft this early, you look for someone who can do both - Farley is that guy. He’s a rare big corner who can flat out fly, with elite ball skills, foot speed, and ability to turn his hips. He’s physical, and he’s easily the best man cover corner in this class. He reminds me of one of the 49ers’ biggest foes - Jalen Ramsey. Farley can be the best corner in the league. However, if Farley is off the board and Surtain isn’t, Surtain would be just fine. It is worth mentioning that Farley tore his ACL in 2017, and had some back spasms in 2019. It’s been three years since he’s had a major injury however, and so I doubt that this is an injury-prone situation. Still, that may already be enough for most 49ers fans to take him off their board.
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Slater is easily the best (non-Penei Sewell) lineman in this class. Although his length/size isn’t impressive, his technique, strength, and athleticism is very impressive - he is still one of the only players, ever, to go against Chase Young during a game and win that matchup. Slater can play every position on the OL, but is likely going to be an interior lineman in the NFL because of his length being below standard. He’s an elite run blocker, elite pass protector, and would be a stalwart for years if the 49ers drafted him.
Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
He’s probably the only true EDGE rusher worth taking early. Rousseau and Paye are popular, but they are more “Armstead”, then they are “Ford”. Ojulari’s bend, motor, strength, and even some versatility to be able to drop back should make him an instant contributor in the NFL with a high-ceiling. Ojulari would likely be a slight reach at #12 overall, but I believe he’d be well worth it, even as a late-season riser, it’s clear that Ojulari is a freakish DE and I wouldn’t be surprised if we took him at #12. This front office loves the trenches.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Pitts has caught fire over the last couple weeks as people have salivated over an offense with Pitts, Kittle, Samuel, and Aiyuk - easily one of the best lineups in football. Pitts is the best TE prospect to come out in a while, he’s got WR speed, great route-running, ability to high-point and catch anything, he’s athletic, and he’s a pretty good blocker. While I have reserves about drafting another TE (he could play slot WR) to be the 4th option in a run-heavy offense, it’s clear why he’s so touted.
But if the 49ers were to draft him, it would be a luxury pick. Can the 49ers afford that? Possibly. But with the CB situation, the OL situation, and of course, the QB situation, it’s questionable for:
Pitts even falling to #12 overall.
The 49ers taking him with so many other needs.
Good breakdown riqonator. Ya know, you should really make a full blown blog, NN-style (but maybe NOT bring all the Hag trolls).
On the rookies, there is no way we draft Pitts, esp not at 12. Why? Because he doesn’t block. Immediate no-no for Shanny. I really like Ojulari but am concerned about his injury history, and I also saw him lining up on Bosa’s side (left) rather than Ford’s (right) so he would have to switch. I really like Surtain, Farley, and Horn and think they’ll all be great.
Side question: Which QB in this draft to you think is “Shanny’s guy”?
I noticed Azeez Ojulari was both standing up and playing from the left/Bosa's position. Any evidence that he will transfer to the right/Ford's position and get his hand in the dirt?