Trade Market: Heating Up + Jordan Willis: What does he bring to the table?

Laken Tomlinson gets a reconstruction, as the 49ers complete a trade for Jets pass rusher Jordan Willis. What does John Lynch have up his sleeve? Vetting possible trades Lynch can make.

Oct 22, 2020

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(Santa Clara) - The trade market is heating up, and with it, the 49ers have already made some moves. Earlier today, the 49ers announced a couple moves, and the 1st trade of the season for the reigning executive of the year, John Lynch.

LB Joe Walker was promoted to the active roster. Walker has 82 tackles, 1 PD, 1 FF, and 18 tackles on special teams in his 4 year career with the 49ers, Eagles, and Cardinals.
LB Jonas Griffith was also promoted to the active roster. Griffith was originally part of the 49ers’ UDFA crop this season, and was poached by the Colts earlier this season. The 49ers poach him back, about a week after he was released from the Colts practice squad.
TE Daniel Helm was signed to the practice squad - likely as a replacement for Walker.
Ben Garland was officially placed on Injured Reserve.
Parnell Motley passed all COVID-19 protocols and is now on the active roster.

Practice Participation Report:

Did Not Participate In Practice

LB Kwon Alexander (ankle)
RB Raheem Mostert (ankle)
S Jaquiski Tartt (groin)
T Trent Williams (ankle)

Limited Participation in Practice:

CB Dontae Johnson (groin)
RB Jeff Wilson Jr (calf)

First things first, Walker and Griffith were promotions, not “flexes” like Kevin White and Brian Allen, signifying that Kwon Alexander’s injury may be more serious than previously thought. Of course, we will not know until Shanahan truly updates us, but the thought that Walker and Griffith are permanently on the roster for the time being does not bode well for his short-term outlook.

Worse, Richard Sherman who was expected back this week, has now been downgraded to a Week 10 return - a devastating blow for an already hurting defense. Jason Verrett looks like a bonafide star, but regardless, having Sherman back would have been massive for this defense.

Read the transcript of Kyle Shanahan’s press conference here.

Asked about Sherman, Shanahan updated the media saying:

“Yeah, he got those, I think it was last week. Now he's in a boot just taking care of it, making sure it heals and let those take course. I thought it would be, I'd have more answers this week, but I still think it's going to be a few weeks on that. It's obviously going a little longer than we expected. Got to play it smart with him, but I don't see it being week-to-week right now. I see it being probably until around our Bye week.”

Then, there is the mixed bag - Dee Ford finally has a timetable. When asked about him, Shanahan replied:

“I'm not sure on that. I would still throw it similar into that category after our Bye week. He's gotten the work he's needed, he's gotten the shots he's needed, he's rested it and now he's just starting to get back into some things, but still a ways away on that.”

While even having a timetable on Ford is massive, there are a couple things to keep in mind:

The nature of Ford’s injury is unpredictable. He could be ready by the bye week, or he might not play all season.
There is no guarantee he comes back as an effective or even replacement-level player. We saw him last season after his initial injury: a shell of himself.

But if Ford comes back and is truly healthy? By Week 10? The 49ers are in business. Don’t get excited though.

Finally, the biggest news of the day:

Jordan Willis: What does he bring to the table?

If you talk to 49ers fans, they are ecstatic about this move. The 49ers surrendered a 2022 6th round pick in exchange for Jordan Willis, and an additional 2021 7th round pick.

On paper, this looks great - the 49ers get a talented EDGE rusher albeit with no production and a late round pick for a late round pick 2 years in the future.

But talking to Jets fans, they are ecstatic about it too - The Jets are the worst team in the NFL, and worse, they have no pass rushers - and Jordan Willis was a healthy scratch for most games. He only has 3 career sacks in 3 seasons. But there is no loser in this deal: this was a clear win-win - the 49ers get a young athletic EDGE that can possibly be coached up and much needed depth, while the Jets trade up a round as a rebuilding team.

Willis is not all bad though. First things first: definition of a combine warrior. Willis went so high because he was advanced in his technique and extremely athletic - his SPARQ score places him in the 97.5 percentile of the NFL. For whatever reason, Willis has not worked out in the NFL despite having the requisite tools to do so, and part of the reason is mismanagement. While on the Bengals, they forced Willis, traditionally around 250 to 260, to bulk up to 275 which caused him to lose some of that incredible burst and speed - which likely played a part in his poor play so far in his career. I don’t expect Willis to be anything more than a decent depth EDGE, but then again, this guy has the tools to be more. This is a buy-low move.

Career PFF Grades:

2017 - 76.6
2018 - 53.6
2019 - 73.2
2020 - 56.2

Keep in mind - Willis was not exactly some wanted commodity. The Jets didn’t call offering Willis, the 49ers called wanting Willis in all likelihood. Kris Kocurek has a golden track record, so I would not be surprised to see Willis contribute. He will likely play the Dion Jordan, Dee Ford role - not the Nick Bosa role on defense.

What he does best:
High-motor, high-energy player who brings it down after down. Played 841 snaps, ninth-most of any defensive lineman in the country.
Explosive get-off for size. Can stress the offensive tackle’s upfield shoulder and counters that with an effective inside spin move.
Already proficient with an outside swim move. Easily his go-to. Has the height and strength to effectively swat away an offensive lineman’s hands on a consistent basis.
Flashes power to be a consistent threat as a bull rusher and collapse pockets.
Possesses enough flexibility to play from an extremely low stance and win initial leverage battle.
Can get skinny around edge and force offensive tackle to open up the gate.
Biggest concern:
Despite his power, Willis all too often wants to dance with offensive linemen. Plays patty cake in run defense and will cede ground.
Plays far too high at times which leads to balance problems. Can get absolutely washed out of runs.
When he loses the first punch battle he’s finished. Almost never won with a secondary move.
Stopping/starting and changing directions is an issue. Would not want him playing in any kind of space.
Stiff around the corner, falling to the ground regularly even after he’s won.

Based of this scouting report by PFF - his biggest problem is likely his pad positioning and leverage. Enter Kris Kocurek. Buy low, like I said - and do not expect much from Willis. But don’t be surprised if something comes of this either.

Around The NFL

The Seattle Seahawks, contender in the NFC, have expressed interest in troubled WR Antonio Brown, who has been cleared to play after Week 8 this season.
Le’Veon Bell is officially on the roster of the Chiefs, giving Pat Mahomes yet another weapon.
Former 49ers OT Trent Brown tested positive for COVID-19, and as a result, the Raiders offensive line was sent home today as contact tracing begins.
Another former 49er: Aaron Lynch, the former pass rusher, came out of retirement and has joined the Jaguars active roster.
Miami HC Brian Flores has announced that #5 overall pick Tua Tagovailoa, one of the most hyped prospects of the last couple years, will start after their bye week (this week) vs. the Rams. Ryan Fitzpatrick who was playing great is moved to the bench, and don’t be surprised if the Phins get a call for him - Cowboys?
Seattle also brought back troubled LB Mychal Kendricks, who was arrested for insider trading last year - he reverts to the practice squad where he prepares with Damon “Snacks” Harrison to join the active roster.
The Bills released their starting guard, Quinton Spain for undisclosed reasons. The 49ers could very well take a look - Spain is a fine option at guard.

Trade Market: Not Done Yet

Keep in mind, the 49ers just reconstructed Laken Tomlinson’s deal and that likely is not going to be the last you hear of something like that being done.

As of right now:

Zach Ertz
Julio Jones
Alex Mack
David Njoku
John Ross III
Ryan Kerrigan
Odell Beckham Jr
AJ Green
Haason Reddick
Matt Ryan

All of these players have massive rumors circling them regarding trades - especially Njoku, Ross, Kerrigan, Green + the three Falcons, Jones, Ryan, and Mack. There is a ton of talent that is supposedly available. But that does not mean that John Lynch should press the trigger.

Matt Ryan is simply not happening - not this season at least. Next season gets interesting if Ryan does in fact hit free agency, but let me make it clear: with the 49ers cap scenario right now, there is no way they trade for Matt Ryan. Ditto for Zach Ertz, David Njoku - there is simply not a need nor a spot for those players regardless of their talent.

Bargain Bin

But here is when it gets interesting. Ross and Kerrigan are relatively reasonably priced and would not cost much to acquire. Kerrigan is more on the expensive side, but trades as such:

Dante Pettis, Tevin Coleman, 2022 5th round pick for Ryan Kerrigan, Bryce Love - suggested by Bill Barnwell
2021 6th round pick for John Ross III

These trades would likely be accepted - and would be big wins for both sides. Washington desperately needs WR talent and Pettis, as invisible as he is, would legitimately start on that team - and with a young QB like Dwayne Haskins, if he gets a shot again, he needs some support. Coleman brings the veteran presence they lack with AP gone, and they garner a decent draft pick - all for Kerrigan, a redundant pass rusher who with Chase Young and Montez Sweat did not have a starting role in the cards. Kerrigan expires after this season as well. Love is buried (and injured) on the depth chart, and likely would not contribute this season for the 49ers, but once he gets healthy, would be a nice piece next to Mostert for next season. The 49ers have all backup RBs hitting FA next season - Love is a flier that could work, and he does not jeopardize the roster spot of say, JaMycal Hasty. Love’s value is as low as it can get, especially with Antonio Gibson being the RB of the future in Washington - this would be a win-win.

Trading a 6th might actually be too much for Ross at this point, who is in a Pettis-esque scenario, but regardless - Ross has speed for days and we know he can play with his time at Washington. He has produced, big time, when given the opportunity, and although he would be expiring this season - he provides a big play element the 49ers have lacked thus far, although Brandon Aiyuk also fits the bill.

Blockbusters

Now to the big boys: AJ Green, Odell Beckham Jr, Alex Mack, and oh, Julio Jones. To be honest, we can rule Green out right away. He would be the cheapest to acquire, but at his age, his injury history, and salary, he simply is not worth it anymore. Beckham is interesting, and although his locker room issues are overblown - I don’t see the 49ers making a move for him with Aiyuk, their own version, already on the roster. Mack and Jones are the most interesting, and by far.

Mack would be a seamless fit on the 49ers and would not come at a high cost to acquire - he is in his last year, old, and declining albeit still an elite interior offensive lineman. The issue: Mack simply does not fit salary wise on the 49ers this season. However, there is a slight possibility a deal as such could work:

2021 5th round pick, Jimmie Ward, Kentavius Street for Alex Mack

The Falcons desperately need any defensive help they can get - especially in the secondary, and Ward would be a decent option for them. With the 49ers’ Tarvarius Moore who can instantly slot in as the starter behind Ward, the 49ers can afford to let their best safety from last season walk - and the Falcons would be hard pressed to find a better available DB. Ward has not played well this season but was arguably a top 10 safety in the year prior, and god knows the Falcons need secondary help, as suggested before. Street is a low-cost depth lineman for them, and they get their late round pick which is their rumored asking price for Mack as well. Ward can slot in at S or CB - and both positions the Falcons need help at.

The most shocking possible trade we can discuss - Julio Jones. Unlikely, but damn, if it is not intriguing. We know what Jones can do with Shanahan at coordinator, and god help the rest of the NFL if Julio Jones and George Kittle get on the same offense. But alas, two roadblocks remain - the cap, and well, the cap. What I mean is, if the Falcons traded Julio, they would take a massive dead money hit which I am not sure they would consider for anything less than a 1st round pick. The 49ers would already struggle to fit Julio even if they were able to dump Dee Ford on the Falcons (unlikely), meaning the only possible trade would involve multiple high picks and Ford for Julio.

I sadly, do not see a scenario in which either team agrees to a deal as such. Kyle Shanahan has said he wants to keep his picks, and one could reasonably assume that means a trade like this is not likely.

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