The Day After: We know what went wrong. Can it be fixed?
The reason the 49ers lost. Breaking down what went wrong, and asking the question: is the 49ers season all but finished? Plus, just when you thought the injuries were over, more have arrived.
San Francisco 49ers/YouTube
Find the transcript of Shanahan’s presser here.
Well then. That was a ride. A violent one. If you did not hear, the 49ers got blown out of the water by the Miami Dolphins in a terrible showing, the worst of the Shanahan-Lynch era. To summarize, all one has to do is look at the box score:
Jimmy Garoppolo was playing one of the worst defenses in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing statistically one of the best defenses in the league this season, and last season.
Jimmy G: 7/17, 77 yards, 4.5 yards per attempt, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 fumble, and a QBR of… 1.4.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 22/28, 350 yards, 12.5 yards per attempt, 3 TDs, 0 INTs or fumbles, and a QBR of 99.1.
I don’t need to tell you that Fitz outplayed Jimmy - anyone with a working brain could see that. But what is most troubling, is we averaged 6.9 yards per carry and only rushed a total of 19 times. Why? For the running game master known as Kyle Shanahan, this is not only uncharacteristic, it just flat out makes no sense. He knew the running game was working, he knew his QB was “injured” (We will get to that"), he knew Miami had a good secondary but a terrible run defense. And the worst part is, he admitted it.
The following observations might sound overly pessimistic, critical, and more - but these are simply observations. Kyle Shanahan is a top 5 HC in this league, and the best playcaller undoubtedly. As far as I’m concerned, he has no semblance of insecurity regarding his job - and he is younger than some players in the league. The 49ers lucked out with him - they may very well have found their HC for the next two to three decades. You can’t expect a young, inexperienced HC to not make mistakes - but you can point them out. And in Shanahan’s case, he got overly confident in himself and it bit us, in the worst way. But he will get better as an HC - firing Shanahan is not only crazy talk, it is just stupid. That would be a firing Harbaugh-esque move.
Regarding Saleh, he’s a fine DC. One does not luck themselves into the best defense in the league, regardless of the talent on that defense - but he also has shortcomings, flaws, just like anyone else - and in this case, they are eerily similar to Shanahan. Both are so confident in their gameplans that they do not make proper adjustments, and both are very confident in their players - which is a blessing and curse.
The 49ers have a severe case of being overconfident, in their players, their coaches, everywhere. John Lynch thinks he cannot do any wrong (See: Ford, Dee and Alexander, Kwon). Kyle Shanahan thinks he is the smartest coach in the league (which may be true), and that his gameplans do not need adjustment. This team thought that they could breeze past Miami, just like they thought they could breeze past Philadelphia. The “Super Bowl Hangover talk”? It is not unreasonable. Yes, losing Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, and more were devastating. We also added Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Kinlaw, Trent Williams, etc.. And if the experience narrative is true, why has Jimmy clearly regressed since 2017 instead of progressing? This team took stuff for granted.
The Jets and Giants games were mirages. People want to point to one or two plays that changed the outcome of the game - that’s why we lost the Super Bowl as well. It’s not as simple as being one or two plays from winning - it’s missing so many opportunities that got you into that position in the first place. The two wins the 49ers have had this season have come against the two worst teams in the league, both of whom were missing their best or second best players. Mirage. Shanahan clearly thought that we could run the ball down Miami’s throat - guess what, the run game worked. Problem was, he did not anticipate being punched in the mouth before it. They underestimated this Dolphins team, whether they will admit or not, and it backfired miserably, to the tune of 26 points. When you have a player as talented as Brandon Aiyuk, play 97% of the snaps and only have 3 touches despite playing incredible vs. the Jets and Eagles, there is a problem with the gameplan. When you have the best TE in football, and he garners just 8 targets and 4 catches for 44 yards vs. a bad defense, with bad LBs and safeties, there is a problem with the gameplan. Deebo Samuel, the star WR for the 49ers last year, just had 3 touches for just 22 yards. Bad gameplan.
What happened to Shanahan’s creative playcalling yesterday? He did not plan to use it. Which is also an indictment on….
Jimmy Garoppolo
If you listen to the popular narrative, Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off an high ankle sprain and his mechanics were off, which is the primary reason for his poor play. I challenge that narrative - just 3 weeks ago, when Garoppolo got injured, people praised him for playing through injury, even going to lengths of saying “The injury made him better. It forced him to step into throws which is why he played well vs. the Jets.”
His injury has not changed. It’s a right ankle sprain, on his backfoot. This changes nothing about him being able to step into throws, in fact, as pointed out in Week 2, it makes him have to step into throws because he can’t put weight on his backfoot. It can’t be both ways. He was already practicing before the Eagles game in a limited fashion, and was practicing fully all week with players saying he was fine and ready to play. Then, suddenly during the game his issues pop up and he has to exit the game? Fine by itself, but this quote shines a light on Shanahan’s decision to pull him after the first half.
That explains Shanahan’s decision to pull Jimmy more than anything else. What does “the game was going a little bit differently” mean? It means that Shanahan and Garoppolo both expected to breeze through this game, and they did not expect to be down 4 possessions at half. This is corroborated by Shanahan “wanting to run the ball more” and not expecting to pass it as much. If the health affected him to the point of a 1.4 QBR, Shanahan would have clearly held Garoppolo out of this game - but he said Jimmy was fine during practice. If it effects him to the point where a QB has a 1.4 QBR, why is Jimmy already been anointed as the starter vs. the Rams, who are the best team we will play this season so far, when Shanahan says this:
If his health will be similar on Wednesday to what it was last Wednesday, why is he getting played? Because it’s not the reason why Jimmy played bad. Does it affect some throws? Absolutely. Does the OL playing abysmal affect Jimmy? Absolutely. But blaming an injury over the OL’s play, the WR’s drops, the QB’s play, and your own play calling is a red flag.
When you have a disappointing loss like this - the blame is on the whole team, but specifically on 3 pieces of the team. The HC/OC, the DC, and the QB. All three were terrible on Sunday. All three underestimated the Dolphins just as they did the Eagles, and all three did not expect to get punched first instead of being the first to draw blood.
Jimmy Garoppolo could not step up when the 49ers needed him to, with 2 turnovers, nearly a 3rd. The reason why the 49ers lost the offensive battle and defensive battle lies with Jimmy and Kyle, and Saleh to a lesser degree.
The 49ers ran 11 drives, the Dolphins ran 12 drives. So why did the Dolphins have nearly 14 more minutes of possession!!! That’s almost a full quarter. The answer:
In the 1st half, the 49ers ran the exact amount of drives as the Dolphins, yet 3 resulted in turnovers, 3 were punts, and 1 was a touchdown. The Dolphins were the opposite, scoring on 6 of their 7 drives, with 3 TDs and 3 FGs. Complementary football is key, and for a 49ers offense that was supposed to blow Miami out, fully healthy and all, they simply did not. And that’s what lead to the defense completely being overwhelmed.
Robert Saleh and Kyle Shanahan are not without fault on the defensive side of the ball. They expected this game to be a cakewalk, so they used it as a “tryout game” for Kevin White, for Brian Allen, for Ken Webster, and got cute instead of starting the corner who was healthy enough to play, although limited, in Ahkello Witherspoon. Worse, you let Allen get burned for 2 straight quarters, destroying any confidence a young DB can have, while giving him zero safety help and playing him in press like he is Richard Sherman vs. talented WRs like DeVante Parker and Preston Williams. The guy had not played in 2 years, and Saleh and Shanahan were so confident, dare I say cocky enough, to play Allen thinking they could get away with it. You might say, well, they did not have much of a choice. Tim Harris Jr is sitting on the practice squad, waiting for a chance. Ahkello Witherspoon was healthy enough to play. Tarvarius Moore had played corner before and could have played. Jimmie Ward had experience at CB and could have played. Instead, they underestimated Fitz and the Phins and it destroyed them.
Worse, they all but admitted this, when they announced that they would be trying Jimmie Ward out at CB this week. This literally means - they did not consider the Phins a worthy enough opponent to warrant that course of action, instead opting for Brian Allen, but as soon as we play a “good team”, suddenly that is the course of action.
The Future: Is this season over before it even really started?
Pessimists will tell you: yes. Optimists will tell you: no. Both sides have good points. It’s just Week 5. The 49ers could make a move, or they could get on a run, and suddenly the 49ers are back in the hunt - after all the 49ers are just one game behind the coveted 3rd wild card spot this season.
But I (unsurprisingly) side with the pessimists here. Why? The 49ers have the toughest remaining schedule in the league. Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Rams, Bills. You can bet one thing: the 49ers are going to be underdogs in every single one of those matchups, and rightfully so. There is a real shot that the 49ers will be 2-10 going into the WFT game in December, which might be one of the few games the 49ers will still be favored in. You might say, well the 49ers can pull out a win vs. the Rams, or the Patriots, or the Packers. We own the Packers right?!
Maybe. Is it likely? Hell no. It comes down to two players: Nick Bosa and Jimmy Garoppolo. Bosa being out has destroyed this defense - we managed just 2 sacks, and 5 QB hits vs. a team that was already a terrible OL, let alone missing their best offensive tackle. Simply put, that is not going to cut it against these types of teams. We play the two leading MVP candidates in Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, we play a future HOFer (although playing worse) in Drew Brees (who also will have Michael Thomas back), we play Cam Newton who is a mobile QB who we struggle against, and Josh Allen, another MVP candidate with mobility. The only non-mobile, non HOF, non MVP candidate player we play is Jared Goff in the next 7 weeks. And he has an elite OL, elite defense, the best defensive player of this generation, and elite WRs. Oh, and the 2nd best play caller in the league.
The players we get back from injury? Are not coming back soon. Richard Sherman has had a setback according to Shanahan:
Sherm, we were hoping to get him back this week. Some setbacks last week. The healing hasn't gone the way we were hoping for. So, I know we're going to try a few different procedures this week, but I know I'm not counting on him this week. We'll see how that goes with the new stuff we're going to try.
New stuff is referring to shots that Sherman has got in his calf, to relieve inflammation. Worse, Kwon Alexander may have sustained a high ankle sprain during Sunday’s game - which likely means a couple of weeks missed. That injury is much more impactful for a LB in the trenches than a QB.
[LB] Kwon Alexander, didn't have it last night, but he has a possible high ankle sprain. We don't know the severity of it yet. We'll find out more on that by Wednesday. [DL] D.J. Jones, eye. I expect him back at practice Wednesday. Go ahead.
Ronald Blair and Jullian Taylor are not going to solve our pass rush problems - both are coming off ACL tears. Blair may provide some juice, but he is not providing a big change. Moore and Ward getting looks at CB suggest that Sherman’s injury may extend further than known. Richburg returning will be big, but even he is coming off a major injury, and he was not playing amazing to start with before it. He will still be an upgrade.
So there are a lot of unknowns - but right now, all eyes are on Jimmy Garoppolo. Can he step up? Franchise QBs are paid because they are your franchise: they are the ones you think of first, they step up when needed, they elevate their team. Jimmy needs to do that if this 49ers team is going to compete.
The 49ers will be missing, at least til Week 7:
Weston Richburg
Jullian Taylor
Ronald Blair
K’Waun Williams
Jordan Reed
Tevin Coleman
Kwon Alexander
And additionally will miss these players for the rest of the season:
Nick Bosa
Solomon Thomas
Jalen Hurd
And will likely miss Richard Sherman for some more time as well. This is put up or shut up time for the 49ers, especially Garoppolo, Shanahan, and Saleh. And the stakes are high, and the stage is big. The 49ers play the Rams at home on SNF this Sunday, and are 0-3 at home so far. They cannot afford another national embarrassment.
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Can't be fixed this year, I don't think. Too many injuries to key players, along with the atrocious o-line play, have really crushed us. Will need to take the year to evaluate and see who can stick around next year, what needs replacing.
Enjoyed the article even more than most times. I usually enjoy them and learn quite a bit.