49ers Fact or Fiction: The First Quarter of 2020 Season - Overreaction Edition

The FTN Staff discusses everything from the future of the 49ers in the playoffs, to the defense under Robert Saleh. And the answer on if the QB "controversy" is over.

, and

Oct 09, 2020

Welcome all to another edition of 49ers Fact or Fiction. The post where we argue some points and if we think it’s true or not.

Our contributors this go around are:

Riqonator: The new boss around these parts because Pat is far too lazy to do anything unless if he’s paid. Well, Riq’s too cheap to give him the $2 a month the old place paid him too…
Shanafandom: The other untold prophet that said there could be another 49ers blog in a world full of 49ers blogs. The good news about this particular blog is Shanafandom hasn’t made it corporate.
El Shorts: The moderator from the old place is now going to be arguing with everyone over stuff that probably isn’t that important with an election coming up and a lethal virus running around. Shorts is—

Shorts: “DID SOMEBODY SAY SHORTS?!”

Yep, he’s doing pretty damn well. Welcome to Thunderdome.

And as always, Patrick Holloway is your moderator: Shoot me. Stupid 49ers can’t beat a hobbled Eagles team and the Cardinals. This season already sucks. Hey, last year I knew I was getting fired, but the 49ers were doing well in December. Last year gets the advantage.

Pat: If the best they can claim is a wild card spot in the playoffs, the 49ers do not have the assets available to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Riqonator: Fact?

Anything can happen in an NFL season, and things are guaranteed to change with COVID-19, injuries, in general players stepping up, whatever. But these first four games trouble me because we struggled to eke out a win against two… average teams. Never say never, but teams like the Packers or Buccaneers this season? They are getting hot and I don’t see how we can keep up. Whenever Jimmy comes back, he is going to have to play out of his mind for the 49ers to weather the storm of their upcoming schedule. Losing Nick Bosa was devastating. Losing Dee Ford as well? Catastrophic. EDGE rush was the thing that transformed this defense from the bad one in 2018 to the top of the shelf unit that it was in 2019. Without it, how do we deal with MVP candidates like Rodgers or Wilson - who will be inevitably faced? If we get lucky and play a weak division winner, say, Dallas/Philadelphia, maybe Jimmy gets hot and we make a run.

Shanafandom: Fiction

The first step is to obviously make the playoffs. If that happens, any team can get hot at the right time. Look at the 2012 Ravens who made it at 10-6, or the 2019 Titans who almost beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. I think it’s unlikely, but no playoff team should ever be overlooked. Especially when only one team per conference gets a bye. For it to happen, the Niners need to start getting luckier with injuries. Garoppolo needs to come back and play consistently, his line needs to play better, and our stars on defense need to actually stay on the field. Like Riqo said, the biggest challenge is edge because of its importance as a position and Bosa being out for the season. Ford’s health is be the biggest factor in the Niners’ postseason hopes. Without him, San Francisco is relying on guys like Dion Jordan, Kerry Hyder, and Ronald Blair. Barring a new mid-season acquisition, these guys need to step up.

El Shorts: Fiction

If the 49ers are able to claim a wild card spot in the playoffs, then I believe that the team would be able to at most make a deep playoff run. While we should consider the likelihood that the top two seeds have made the Super Bowl every year for the last 7 years, we have seen a wild card team make the Championship game just last year in the Tennessee Titans. While a slew of injuries have hampered this 49ers squad, this is still (mostly) the reigning NFC Champions that went to the Super Bowl just a year prior. With the lack of an awesome pass rush, this postseason run will have to rely on some more innovative play calling from Shanahan, better execution from Garoppolo and the offensive line, and for Deebo and Aiyuk to grow up into the starting roles fast. With the assumption that the Niners are even in the playoffs to begin with, I think they have the potential to still be any team’s nightmare matchup.

Pat: While Robert Saleh is not solely to blame for Sunday’s loss against the Eagles, 2020 is beginning to show that he may be a bit overrated as a defensive coordinator

Shanafandom: Fiction

While I do think Saleh was slightly overrated last year, my opinion on him has not changed this season. My two biggest issues were always difficulty scheming around mobile QBs, and his tendency to let teams catch up late in games when the Niners have the lead. The first issue certainly still exists. Kyler Murray destroyed us, but our defense was exhausted because offense couldn’t stay on the field. Defense was fantastic against both New York teams. And offense was once again the issue against Philadelphia. Defense gave up just 18 points with our starting corners and edge rushers all hurt. And my second issue hasn’t been relevant so far this season. I’m not saying Saleh is one of the best DCs in the game, but he is competent and I see no reason for the Niners to move on anytime soon.

El Shorts: Fact?

If you’ve always found Saleh to be overrated, does that count? I’ve honestly never seen the appeal of Saleh aside from being the “rah-rah“ animated guy that the players want to play for. He feels like he is the epitome of a players coach, much like Dan Quinn, Gus Bradley, and ole Jimmy Tomsula. If 2020 is showing that he is overrated as a defensive coordinator, it’s because of the loss of talent. Losing Sherman, Mosley, Witherspoon, Greenlaw, Bosa, Ford, and Thomas is a ridiculous slew of injuries, and you can’t blame the defense for faltering at least slightly. If one believes that Saleh is overrated, it could be argued then that the defense is mostly good because of its talent. For the most part, the talentless defense was able to keep a very hampered Philadelphia in check, but the same tendencies continued to show that are consistent with Saleh-giving up leads late in the game, allowing huge third down conversions, and being unable to stop mobile quarterbacks. When even Carson Wentz is gashing you with designed QB runs, literally any QB in the league can do it to you, and that will be picked up on. With or without the talent, these tendencies have existed throughout Saleh’s tenure, only this time without the talent, it will translate to more losses.

Riqonator: Fiction

This can change, but defensively, outside of a few bad play calls, the 49ers have limited every team they have played. I may have my own reservations about Saleh, but so far: the criticisms are nitpicked. The real test and evaluation of Saleh will be in the coming weeks with all the high-powered offenses we play, including the Rams, Seahawks, Packers, and Saints. Saleh likely won’t just be coaching for the 49ers - that stretch of games will likely determine his job opportunities in the future. Can he make do with lesser talent? Can he maximize what he already has? Talented players like Dre Greenlaw and Tarvarius Moore sit on the bench - if he can find a way to utilize them to mask some of the shortcomings, for example, our EDGE rush: then he has done well.

Pat: Fact

I’m jumping in on my own prompt because I have many thoughts on this. I love Robert Saleh the person and I think his story is flat-out inspiring. Robert Saleh the coach I am not a fan of. The 49ers have many issues on defense right now: no Nick Bosa, no Dee Ford (it’s almost like having him is like having a “Guest” character in Final Fantasy Tactics), the secondary is a mess, etc. Here’s the problem: They gave up 18 points to the hobbled Philadelphia Eagles. Two of which was a walk-in two-point conversion. If that was the Green Bay Packers, it would have been much worse. He allowed 18 points? Against a shitty offense? Um, congrats?
Once again, the team had communication issues (Why? Why in Saleh’s fourth season are there communication issues?); that’s a Saleh problem, not a talent problem. Once again, numerous third and longs/fourth downs are converted; that’s a Saleh problem, not a talent problem. And once again when elite talent goes down, the entire defense shifts into the depths of mediocrity. That’s a Saleh problem, NOT a talent problem.
Yes, I get the offense was absolutely awful and isn’t doing favors. I get that there’s practice squad players and the like and learning that scheme takes time due to the bludgeoning of injuries (did I do that right?), but the Saleh Special (3rd/4th downs converted) was being handed out on the regular in Week 1.
Also, before you point the finger and say, “dude, he lost the starters,” I’ll respond with, “remember when Vic Fangio lost both Patrick Willis AND NaVorro Bowman and STILL turned in a top-15 defense?” The 2014 49ers certainly had issues, but when you have good coaching, you can make up for the large holes masked. Fangio took Chris Borland and made him a superstar. Good coordinators mask their issues. Bill Belichick had LT and then took the other 10 guys to make a ridiculous defense with the New York Giants. Fangio? He has elevated every terrible defense (except the one he’s the head coach of, the Denver Broncos).
What or who does Saleh elevate? The 49ers elevate him by giving him a Contra code of sorts where he has the best players in the NFL and when he loses all of his star players he’s exposed. Should there be a drop? Absolutely, but the conversions and dumb play calls are absolutely maddening. Saleh should have had the Eagles at 0 touchdowns, period. And while Jimmy Garoppolo is under the microscope for the 4th quarter turd he turned in for the Super Bowl, I give equal blame to Robert Saleh because Wasp is on HIM. Not Moseley, HIM. He should have had that thing coached up period and he didn’t.
Furthermore, he’s been with the 49ers for four years and he still doesn’t have a gameplan for running QBs? Russell Wilson has to be licking his chops on that one.
Saleh is not a bad coordinator, but he’s just an underwhelming one. Ok, I’m back to moderating.

Pat: If anything from the last two weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo’s status as a full-time, NFL starting QB has been proven thanks to the play of Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard

El Shorts: Fact

It’s absurd to believe that Jimmy Garoppolo is not a starting caliber QB in the NFL. The guy executed an incredibly complex offense to the point of it being one of the best offenses in the league last season. He’s beaten great teams, delivered in the clutch, and is a true leader. Nick Mullens can run the offense in a semi-competent manner but he’s too inconsistent to be a full time starter. Beathard ain’t it. The Niners need their starting QB back, and there’s no doubt it’s Jimmy, based on his consistent play and natural talent.

Riqonator: Fact

I don’t think this was ever in doubt. While I am not as down on Mullens as most were after Sunday, Jimmy Garoppolo was always going to be the starter. No question. Unless Jimmy comes back and stinks up the bed in the next, what, 12 games, there is no question that Jimmy G is one of the better QBs in the league and easily a starter on most teams. Like Shorts said, he beats good teams, delivers in the clutch, and elevates his teammates. I don’t think Mullens playing like he was Aaron Rodgers on Sunday changes things either - this, like Shanahan said, is not a scenario.

Shanafandom: Fact

Garoppolo’s role as a starting QB was already known. Yes, he played terribly against the Cardinals. He has his down games. But his typical game is much better than what we’ve seen the past three weeks. He’s carried the team when needed, such as against the Saints last season. He’s a good leader and brings out the best of our other players. Compared to Mullens last week, Jimmy just seemed a lot more poised. Not to mention his physical skills, such as his quick release. Sure, Beathard looked good against soft coverage but that won’t last. I can’t say if Garoppolo has already hit his ceiling, but he currently is good enough to start for a NFL team.

Pat: After this weekend is another brutal stretch, AKA: The Gauntlet Part II: Return of the Gauntlet. If the 49ers fall to Miami, the season is pretty much over.

Shanafandom: Fiction?

That’s a difficult question (good job Pat). But I’m optimistic regardless of this game. One one hand, the schedule is brutal. After dropping the Eagles game the Dolphins game is very important. On the other, it’s unlikely Garoppolo will start. How can you declare a season is over during a backup’s last (hopefully) start of the season? And even if he does play, he’ll still be hurt and limited. The Niners are a different team when a healthy Garoppolo starts and should be held to a different standard. You can’t tell me Jimmy would lose to the Eagles. When Jimmy and other guys like Sherman come back, the team will be better prepared to handle the tougher competition. And that team has the capability to earn a playoff spot.

El Shorts: Fact?

It depends on how they lose. If they lose because there’s a ton more injuries, then it’s pretty much over. If they lose in a contest fight in which they look mediocre, then it’s upsetting, but not necessarily over. There’s a lot of guys that could come back from injuries, but the team even at its current form should be able to defeat the Dolphins. If they are still having performance issues with them, just imagine how much they’ll struggle against the gauntlet teams.

Riqonator: Fact

If you haven’t already noticed, I’m not exactly the most enthusiastic of people. With that being said, if we are 2-3 going into this stretch - we have a shot at finishing last in the division. The brutal schedule includes the Rams twice, the Seahawks, the red-hot Packers, the high-powered Saints, the Patriots, and the Bills. Those may very well be all losses, although getting players like Richard Sherman and Weston Richburg back will change things. I don’t think we go winless in that stretch, but those teams are going to be extremely tough matchups. Almost all of them have got better from last season, while the 49ers due to injuries have arguably regressed. Never say never, but this Miami game should be a cakewalk - if it’s not, we lose one of the easiest games on the schedule which will hurt us when it comes down to playoff time.

Leave a like and comment to support us if you like the article and our content, or if you have criticism, or simply for discussion. Check out our best content, including Part 1 and Part 2 of an in-depth look into Jimmy Garoppolo, where we look at what his issues were last season, and a in-depth look into the Kittle vs. Kelce argument.

For The Niners

Discussion about this post