QB Breakdown: Trey Lance - Part 2: Playmaking, Explosive Passing, and Negatives
Trey Lance is a special, unique prospect. But he comes with some issues as well.
All rights to images and videos used in this go to the FCS, North Dakota State, Draft Breakdown on YouTube, and the NCAA.
Access Part 1 of the breakdown here.
What makes Trey Lance special?
This is not a one-word answer. And that is good.
Most QBs can do what Jimmy Garoppolo does. Although his release is still elite, the difficulty of throws that Garoppolo attempts is not anything to write home about. The Shanahan offense needs the extra boost - either with a dual-threat QB, or with a deep passing game. Neither of those are present with Garoppolo or Mullens under center. Young and Elway excelled at extending plays with their legs and throwing deep. Matt Ryan was statistically one of the best deep ball throwers in the league under Kyle Shanahan. This offense cannot reach it’s potential without the extra side that a mobile QB or deep ball adds. You can see the effect this season and even last season. Defenses knew that Garoppolo was not going to throw deep or outside the numbers much - which he attempted at a bottom 5 rate in the league among starting QBs. They knew he would not challenge them downfield. And they knew his legs were not a threat. SO the offense became predictable.
And this point, is exactly why Trey Lance is such an exciting fit in this offense. Because he can do both, at an extremely high level.
Deep Ball
The margins between the big four in Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields in terms of this deep ball are minuscule, and depending on who you like more, this will change. But Lance has an elite deep ball. You can’t really go wrong - Lawrence edges out Wilson and Lance, but they all have incredible deep balls in their own ways. Lance is up there, I would place him above Wilson for his deep ball.
Great touch. Great arm strength. Great placement.
Uncanny ability to give his WR chances at 50/50 balls. Go up and get it - and as a result, a ton of defensive pass interference calls are called. Some QBs have a skill which lets them get DPI for their WRs - Joe Flacco was one of the best at it. Lance is also really good at it.
An absurd amount of his passes were dropped. Routine passes that NFL WRs will catch, but that his low quality of WRs cannot. You will not see the beauties he throws that are dropped by his WRs on highlight reels. But they are there.
He’s got the touch, and he’s got the consistency on deep balls too. The above is an example of throwing the 50-50 ball - something that divisional adversary Russell Wilson has made a living out of.
It’s especially maddening because on paper, Lance’s yard totals and passing TDs do not jump off the screen. But with the sheer amount of drops, not only tough catches like these, but just straight up drops - I would estimate at least a couple hundred yards passing, and multiple scores. Annoying.
And as mentioned before, his ability to throw downfield and give his WRs chances at the ball results in a ton of DPI being called - guys like Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco - they’ve mastered this art. Lance already is showing this. He knows how to give his WRs and TEs chances to go up and get the ball - and he has the ability to put it “only where they can get it”. Bigtime. This is an incredible throw. Under pressure, far side of the field, tight coverage, he reads the coverage scheme, realizes he has man, takes a shot to the corner of the endzone and drops an absolute dime where only his WR can get it, for the score. This is the type of throw that the 49ers have not had a QB make in quite some time, and it’s the type of throw that Russell Wilson has killed them with for 8 years now. Rare ability.
Playmaking
Without a doubt, Zach Wilson is the best in the class at doing this - but Lance is right there behind him.
This is where his physical gifts take over. He breaks tackles like nobody’s business. And his ability to throw while evading pressure and on the run is elite. His elite pocket presence helps him a lot here - he seems to sense pressure before it even comes and it helps him when extending plays. A lot of young QBs rarely have this skill so early, especially dual threat QBs, but Lance already has this - a big plus.
He can throw off a variety of platforms, and his arm is strong enough to do so while throwing across his body.
He’s got great accuracy, especially moving to his right where he can use his arm strength and good mechanics to make tough throws like these. This throw looks easy, but think of it this way. Lance needs to get the ball there fast enough to let the TE score, but also with enough touch to get it over the LB, while also fitting it in before the sideline and before 24 gets there, while on the run.
This is a throw that few QBs will attempt, especially guys like Nick Mullens for example - who do not have the prerequisite arm strength nor athleticism to try this. And it goes the opposite, a QB like Kaepernick, with his prolonged throwing motion, gets this ball there late and it can be broken up.
I can’t stress this enough, but young QBs rarely have the maturity to both limit turnovers and also push the ball downfield. Lance already has this, and it bodes very well for him when he plays on Sundays.
Running The Ball
This is honestly an extra - Shanahan does not need a true rusher at QB, only one that is mobile and can buy time. Lance can easily do that, but what puts the cherry on top for Lance as a prospect is his ability to run the football - best in the class. He was rushed 176 times, an absurd amount - and these aren’t read options or scrambles, these are QB powers. It was borderline dangerous for the NDSU OC to do this, but Lance took a beating - he never slid, always diving for extra yards. That’s bad because it means there is more mileage on Lance, but it’s good because he never got injured - a sign that he can take the NFL season’s toll with his 6 foot 4, 226 pound frame.
There are plenty of examples of Lance’s ability, all one needs to do is look at his gametape. He is a devastating runner, fast, strong, physical, and will fight for extra yards. And he’s got some elusiveness to him as well. Shanahan would likely dust off the old RG3 option plays for Lance, at least to get him comfortable in the NFL, and his ability to run will be a boon on 3rd down and in the redzone.
Negatives
Finally, we get to the negatives. And well, there are a couple negatives that is really just nitpicking, and a couple that are alarming. It’s hard to find fault in a guy that has turned the ball over a total of three times in his entire career and also completed 67% of his passes, but there are faults.
Sample size - Lance only averaged about 160 passing yards a game last season. Not amazing, although his rushing production and TD production were great. So there are questions about his ability to be a passer who can throw it 40 times a game. The film suggests he can, but again, small sample size. We won’t know til he gets to the NFL, but it bodes well that the college he is from, happens to be one of the few QB-producing small schools in the country. The pro-style offense experience also helps.
Staring down receivers - Lance is actually really good at going through his reads, but he has a tendency to stare down WRs and TEs sometimes, especially over the middle. It’s weird because for most QBs, it’s the opposite - they stare down when throwing outside the numbers, and go through their progressions with middle of the field reads. Lance does the opposite, and while he still makes some great throws and reads - it is something to be aware of. Most college QBs will do this.
The 2nd point relates to the 3rd - Lance, although an elite decision maker, has trouble especially with vertical passes over the middle. These types of plays are not in Shanahan’s offense, but he sometimes misses the safety streaking or LB getting back into the play, resulting in a couple near interceptions and one actual interception, in his only game that he played this season. He does need to improve his awareness when throwing over the middle, but again, 1 career interception. Hard to do. He won’t get away with this in the NFL.
He does overthink some deep throws. He has overthrown and underthrown targets multiple times, but in general, the deep ball is great - nobody will be perfect on a deep ball. But there’s a reason why he is behind someone like Lawrence, and it’s because there are throws he messes up. This one is particularly egregious, his worst miss as a college player. Impressive that he even got the ball that far, considering he was hit as he threw, but this won’t slide in the NFL - Mullens-esque miss.
It really is hard to find any other flaws with Lance’s game. He is not like Mitch Trubisky in the sense that he has shown he’s got the ability to manipulate safeties, use his eyes as weapons, and go through his reads quickly and correctly. He is not like DeShone Kizer where there seems to be no mental capacity to adjust to the NFL game.
The biggest issue is of course sample size. 1 INT total is great, but that number will jump in the NFL, no matter what. That is of course, the reason he is considered #4 in the big four.
If you want to make your own evaluation: his worst game ever happened to be his exhibition game vs. UCA, and you can find the film on YouTube.
Keep in mind that even with his poor passing performance, it being his first game, he still combined for 300 yards and 4 TDs in total. This is a guy that can win in multiple ways.
His best film… is basically every other game. Seriously. Check out this breakdown too. Kyle Shanahan and George Kittle get name-dropped multiple times in this.
Sample size, sample size, sample size. If the 49ers do indeed take a QB in April, they may not be in range for Fields or Lawrence. Lance is not a consolation prize, although he is a risk. But if Kyle Shanahan can develop him correctly, and the 49ers have the supporting cast to do so, this guy can be a bonafide superstar. He is one of the few QBs that will come out of the draft, ready to play in the NFL day 1, but also with massive questions about if he can adjust to NFL gamespeed. A unique prospect.
The next QB breakdown is Zach Wilson, but that is a long way out. Thank you for reading this whole thing!
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Meant to ask. Any idea on his hand size? Serious question. I'm becoming a believer that matters maybe even more than people talk about it.
The more I study Lance, the more I like him in Shanahan's offense. This kid looks like the full package for what we need, and honestly, even beyond that.
Riqo - have you ever checked out the You Tube series JT O'Sullivan (yeah, that one) does called QB School? He's got one on Lance. It's pretty good stuff.