QB Breakdown: Trey Lance - Part 1: Fundamentals and Fit with Kyle Shanahan
In a QB class filled with generational talent - the 4th QB? He is the guy the 49ers want to get? The answer is yes.
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(Santa Clara) - Trey Lance is legitimately the most unique prospect I have seen at QB. Unique background, unique playstyle, unique statline, unique eyetest - it’s so hard to evaluate these guys. 6 foot 4 inches, 226 pounds, athletic, strong arm, but inexperienced.
When was the last time you have ever seen a statline like this?
2786 passing yards on 287 attempts, 66.9% completion, 28 TDs, 0 INTs, 180.6 rating
1100 rushing yards on 169 attempts, 14 TDs, 1 fumble lost
In one season! These are unheard of at any collegiate level, FCS, FBS, whatever - and while his level of competition is not amazing - 0 INTS! He comes from a school that has produced Carson Wentz, and most recently Easton Stick - and this school is the royalty of the FCS. He won the FCS championship and Game MVP in his final season at NDSU, before opting out this season.
Regardless of competition, that should not be discounted. 42 total TDs, 1 total turnover. He enters the draft as the only pro-style QB who has operated under center, despite, as you can see, being an elite QB in rushing production. But the stats would suggest Lance is a Lamar Jackson, or Cam Newton, a Colin Kaepernick. He is much more than that - and the only way to show you, is through a breakdown of his play.
If you want to skip to the exciting part of this breakdown, I suggest Part 2.
Fundamentals
When evaluating a unique QB like Lance - he’s from an FCS school with little experience vs. D1 competition, the first thing you need to see is if he has his fundamentals down. Dual-threat QBs tend to take-off when they do not need to, impatience is a defining factor. For 49ers fans, the most famous example of this - Colin Kaepernick. One of his worst traits was that he would be a deer in the headlights under pressure, and even with a clean pocket, bail when he did not have to. Being able to be patient in the pocket is key. Even today, players like Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and to an extent, Lamar Jackson will sometimes bail on a play that is still developing. The more extreme example would be the most familiar to us, Colin Kaepernick. He never looked comfortable sitting back in the pocket, and letting the play develop in front of him - it’s a problem, as mentioned, especially prevalent in mobile QBs which the league is shifting towards. Lance has no problem sitting back in the pocket, going through his reads, and delivering. Good base, keeps his feet moving, keeps his eyes downfield. This is textbook.
Don’t get it twisted, this is not a mind-blowing play. But there is a lot more nuance to this throw. One of Kaepernick’s worst traits, and Garoppolo’s to a certain extent as well, is the tendency to lock onto the read they target. Lance, as most college QBs, will do this from time to time. But simply showcasing his ability to even make this read is very encouraging. Watch him progress from the deep read, to the check down, to the intermediate throw. This is a tough throw as well - many QBs don’t have the touch, nor the velocity to get that throw over the LB, but also throw with enough velocity to give the WR a chance to get yards after the catch. Lance does both. If you float that over the LB, you risk pressing your WR to the sideline and giving the DB a shot to break this up, limiting yards after catch too. If you flatten this pass, it easily can get picked, not unlike Nick Mullens’ boneheaded interception yesterday. Great throw, good read, and quick release.
Fundamentals are key. Another fundamental, as I alluded to in the play above, is his release. I’ve seen some complain that his release is prolonged, and he stretches the ball too much. That does not matter if the release, overall, is still fast - and that is the case with Lance. He does sometimes hold the ball out, as if he is throwing a baseball, but the overall release? Great. Fast, compact, and generates a lot of power. Being able to push the ball to the sidelines is necessary - and something that the 49ers have lacked for a while. Garoppolo since his ACL injury has lost most of his arm strength/footwork, making him focus on the middle of the field. He can’t drive the ball to the sidelines, for one reason or another - but Lance… the ball jumps out of his hand. You want to open up Shanahan’s offense, get a guy who can make all the throws in the book. This is an elite throw, and a throw that Shanahan will see and love - because it’s a throw that he does not have to scheme. We know Shanahan loves his robots at QB, but one of the most valuable attributes to a coach is the ability for his QB to bail him out. This is a bail-out throw; he is under pressure, on a long-developing route on a secondary read, and has to fit the ball into a tiny slot. And he does. Arm strength, quick release, multiple reads, it’s all present in this throw.
Another example of his release - this is not an issue. Good mechanics, good footwork (especially because he operates under center which is a huge bonus, and a very fast decision, release. Placement is great too.
He’s got good footwork fundamentals - he always steps into his throws, his dropback is crisp, and he’s got good pocket presence to feel pressure. However, it can improve mechanically as he tends to overstride and drop his pads on occasion.
The velocity he gets on his throws, despite having a fast release is a big positive. Now, granted, someone like Zach Wilson has a faster release - but in terms of velocity, arm strength, all of it - Lance is up there. Velocity is good if you have touch as well - which in this case, he does. I’ve got no questions about Lance’s release - it’s quick, compact, consistent, and very strong.
Stressing fundamentals, it’s also important to protect the football. Lance is the best in the class at doing that, without a doubt. With an absurd 0 interceptions over his first two seasons, and just one lost fumble, compared to 42 total TDs, passing and rushing, he both knows how to protect the football and how to take risks as well. For that “robot” that Shanahan likes, he needs to know when to take the sack, or take the checkdown. Lance differs from both the rest of the big three because he is already so mature as a QB to do this. Checking down a pass is nothing special at all, but it highlights NFL-readiness. He reads the field, steps up to avoid the pressure, and instead of forcing a deep throw, takes the easy completion. Easy, but often you will see players in college not do this. One of the worst traits of Zach Wilson is trying to do too much - and it’s not easily coachable. Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Carson Wentz, even Russell Wilson to a degree; they all try to do too much at times, and it hurts them.
That is not to say, however, that Lance does not try and extend plays and force balls - he does, but in terms of decision making, he’s the best in class. Justin Fields and Mac Jones are very close to him however.
The Execution
A lot of members on FTN have expressed doubts about Lance’s NFL-readiness. Is he even a fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense? Can he start in his rookie season and do what we need him to do?
The 49ers offense, at least the last two years is not that hard to execute. Frankly, the amount of easy reads, short throws, screens, sweeps, and in general being a run-first offense is not that hard to execute. Sure, there are obviously some advanced passing concepts sprinkled, but Shanahan’s bread and butter is with his misdirection and setting up the pass-game with running the ball.
With that being said, expecting a rookie QB to learn the offense in a year is unreasonable. But it’s becoming extremely common. Guys like Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Tua, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen - they come into the league raw, especially Herbert and Allen, and they have not had any bumps in the road. But for all of those guys, there are also QBs like Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, who for a variety of reasons have struggled in the NFL.
Does Lance fit this offense, and can he execute the plays this offense needs at minimum? Meaning, can he do the things that Jimmy Garoppolo can do? The answer is a resounding yes.
In fact, I’ll make a bold statement; the NFL-readiness of Lance is only lower than Trevor Lawrence in this draft. More than Justin Fields, and more than the fan-favorite in Zach Wilson. And especially with the Kyle Shanahan offense.
This is a concept that looks straight out of the 49ers playbook. Bootleg to the right with the TE coming across the formation to pick up the free EDGE rusher. If you have watched any 49ers game, you have seen this play, or at least a variation of it.
Right away, a couple of things jump off the screen. First, the effortless motion and throw. That velocity is jumping off the screen, he gets that ball to the sidelines quick, and with ease. This is a half field read with a shallow crosser, the second TE, and the receiver on a comeback - and Lance has to make a tough decision. The TE over the middle has been played beautifully by both LBs - meaning he can either take off with the ball and risk a sack, throw it away… or somehow fit the ball in that tiny sliver of space. This is the art form known as “throwing someone open”, and Lance exhibits this right here.
This is Lance bailing out his coach. Playcall not working, under pressure, and he delivers a strike to the sidelines. Perfect throw. Good catch.
Another play - and one that should look awfully similar to 49ers fans.
This play has sadly been phased out of the 49ers playbook following Garoppolo’s ACL injury. But before that had happened, when Garoppolo had previously had some mobility and ability to throw on the run, this was a staple in that magical stretch at the end of the 2017 season. And you can bet that with an athlete like Lance at QB, that’s going to be back - and it diversifies the 49ers playbook at the goal line, which they have desperately needed for a while. Throwing across the body, and throwing someone open. Jimmy G had this ability once upon a time, but it seems to be gone now. But for that magical run, we remember the inevitable Montana comparisons that were brought out. Trey Lance is not Joe Montana, but it’s hard not to think of that play when seeing this, just as we did three years ago.
Pocket presence is also an important trait - Shanahan preferred pocket passers for a decade as an OC, and only now seems to be changing his mind ever so slightly. But it’s still important - and Lance’s pocket presence is also one of his best traits, if not his best - he is really one of the best in the draft at it. He excels under pressure, with a great ability to sidestep pressure and keep his eyes downfield.
Having a player that can effectively execute play-action while also being comfortable in the pocket is exactly what Shanahan wants - essentially, someone who can do what 2017 Jimmy Garoppolo did. Lance does that and adds way more to the package.
A similar play, and watch him again manipulate the safety with his eyes. Make no mistake - Lance knows that his TE has a wide-open left side, he just needs to get that safety to bite on any one of the routes going towards the right side of the field, and he does that exactly.
This offense is heavily based upon play-action - so having a QB who has operated under center for his entire career in college, and knows how to run play-action plays is a massive boon to a team that cannot afford a gap year.
He is also one of the best in the class, if not the best, against the blitz. He will stand in the pocket, keep his eyes downfield, and take hit after hit and deliver.
For the crowd that believes Trey Lance is not ready for the NFL, he absolutely is, especially when we get into the next part of this breakdown.
I'm already sold before reading part 2.
Count me in on the Trevor Lawrence train.
Awesome write-up and exactly what I've seen from him too. I'm trying to not get my hopes up with him, but if we do end up drafting him, I think Lance in Shanahan's offense is going to be a perfect match for a decade.