Justin Fields: Future 49ers QB? A film and statistical breakdown.
Fields has been the consensus #3 QB throughout this draft process. We take a look at his tape and breakdown the all-22.
This year’s draft process has been a testament to how popular draft media has not learned from past years.
Fields has one of the most extensive resumes of any player in this draft. He was a five star prospect and consensus #1 overall QB - above Trevor Lawrence in the ESPN 300. He signed with Georgia, but after a QB controversy between Fields and Jake Fromm, the latter of whom had just come off a CFP Championship appearance with Georgia, Fields transferred after Fromm got the job.
Many misunderstand this as Fields losing a QB battle. There were unfortunately political factors here - Fromm had just led Georgia to the National Title game as mentioned earlier, and Kirby Smart reportedly did not want to bench a QB who just dd that.
So Fields transferred to Ohio State, and finished 3rd in Heisman voting in 2019. Fields was the consensus QB2 and it felt like that would not change at all. And Fields followed up 2019 with an outstanding 2020 season, with some hiccups - but culminating in one of the best performances ever against Trevor Lawrence in the Sugar Bowl.
Fields. Is. Big. Time.
Let’s get into why, in our first full breakdown of each of the three prospects in play for the 49ers at #3 overall - Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Mac Jones. Zach Wilson will be broken down later if possible.
Accuracy
Let’s get it out of the way. Justin Fields is the most accurate quarterback in the class. Not only by PFF’s numbers, by Derrik Klassen’s Quantifying QBs, and by other lesser known charting systems - but by my own. What do I mean?
Well, over the past couple of months, prior to even the trade up - those who have followed me on the Slack server have been getting updates on a grading system I’ve put together. This system allows for each and every notable throw to be graded. What do I mean by notable?
I frankly do not see any necessity to grade screen passes, shovel passes, throwaways, batted balls - it makes no sense to have those weigh positively or negatively against one’s numbers.
So after going through Justin Fields’ most recent eleven games, or roughly 278 throws - I tried to take the most recent 300 throw sample for each player in this grading system, I’ve come up with results.
Every throw, graded. There are situational factors kept track of - like quarter, down, distance. There is also whether the QB was pressured, what formation (under center or not), and the window to make the throw (open, uncontested, contested, tight). Finally, the area of the throw (outside the numbers to the right, right and inside the numbers, left and inside the numbers, outside the numbers to the left). And then the actual throw - whether it was accurate, catchable, neutral, inaccurate, or a bad throw. And using that, I’ve created an entire database of throws with data that has already can be extrapolated, and data that can be further derived from it - you can play around with it. I’ve also linked the video to each throw - but not in the all-22 format that I primarily watch games in.
Back to Fields. Again, I could not believe my ears when I heard that Chris Simms called Justin Fields inaccurate. It was mind-blowing. Fields is deathly accurate, especially to the intermediate and deep accuracy. Actually, if there’s any place he needs work on - it’s the short area, where Fields was only accurate on 68.8% of his attempts - for reference, Trey Lance is around 76.4%. But everywhere else, Fields is just outstanding.
He’s got a ridiculous 74.7% accuracy rate to the intermediate part of the field, and it shows up on film.
Fields is basically reading the outside corner, #2 - NFL prospect Patrick Surtain. This is commonly referred to as a high-low concept - if Surtain stays in the flat, Fields throws to #2 - Chris Olave. As you can see, because it’s Cover 6 - Surtain stays in the flat, meaning that the free safety here has to deal with Olave and cover him on the sideline. There is a small window to make this throw - and the decision needs to be quick, along with the actual throw velocity. Fields throws a dot to Olave outside the numbers. There’s basically one route that was going to work on this play, and Fields made the correct decision. It’s little things like these that go a long way in the league.
Simply put, these are the types of throws that Garoppolo could not make - lack of velocity to throws towards the outside being the main reason. Fields along with the three other consensus top 4 QBs - Lawrence, Wilson and Lance - can make this throw consistently.
It’s hard to understate how many good things are in this. This is 3rd and 22 - basically, Fields has no intention of throwing this ball to #2 because there’s no chance of getting a 1st down that way. Instead, Fields progresses to #5, Garrett Wilson over the middle. And he throws an absolute laser in between the LB and DB, and does so perfectly - getting Wilson a chance to get the rest of the yardage after the catch.
Some may see this throw as an interception in the NFL. And yes - Fields is not a quick decision maker (but he goes through his progressions. make no mistake), and his slower release doesn’t help. But Fields knows that #3 is lurking. How do I know that?
The placement of this ball if Fields did not recognize #3 would have been to lead Wilson right across, and that throw would have been directly into the LB. Instead, it was intentionally placed a bit behind of Wilson, to fit that in there where the LB couldn’t get it, and where Wilson could. And while the decision and throw motion could have been quicker, the velocity on the ball is elite.
I mean wow. When I say pinpoint, I mean it - Fields when he’s in rhythm can throw some straight dimes. This is just recognizing a one on one and putting a perfect ball right in front and to the outside, this ball has enough touch that #11 catches it with one hand while he’s hand-fighting with the other. There was no better spot that this could have been placed.
Again, there was one spot Fields could have put this pass that results in a TD - and he made the perfect throw, hitting his guy in stride and getting the ball there, in between the DBs. I love the pocket movement here, it’s subtle, but it’s there, and the use of the pump fake freezes the two safeties that end up helping on this deep route for half a second.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and tell you Fields is perfect in this department. By my charting, he’s relatively good downfield and elite intermediate - but he’s below average to the short area.
Now, this is just one extreme example. But I will say this - this is the area Fields needs to work on most in the accuracy department. He’s not terrible, but he’s not exactly great - and short accuracy is at a premium in the west coast offense.
This is a trend I noticed with Fields - his short accuracy is spotty. Most of the time, it’s pretty good, but he has a handful of misses/throws that are behind his target, where you are like… what happened there? Is that the same guy?
And it shows up a lot in his more… average performances. Alabama, Clemson 2019, Northwestern 2020, Indiana - this is pretty much the one area he needs to improve on in terms of accuracy - and it’s very fixable. Most of his issues come with hesitation and letting his feet get a bit lackadaisical in the short passing game. But he just has some weird misses regardless.
Either way, it’s not to take away from his elite intermediate accuracy and good deep accuracy.
Decision Making
Let’s be clear - Justin Fields can go through his progressions. In fact, statistically, he was one of the best (if not the best) in the class at doing so.
And he does it quite well on tape. I’m really not sure where the narrative began that Fields is a “one-read” QB. Let’s get one thing clear. Justin Fields is NOT a one-read QB, not a one-read and run QB, nothing. That narrative needs to end.
This is his third progression that he throws to here, and besides the incredible placement and touch on this ball, to let this TE haul it in with one hand - it’s also great recognition. The two safeties are playing really wide, and Fields recognizes that Wilson (#5) and Olave (#2, lined up at the top) going downfield will garner the attention of both safeties. What that means is the middle of the Field is going to be open for Fields to float this ball in, even in tight coverage, to his TE - which he executes perfectly.
When Fields actually has to read the field, he does it well. Now, is he the best in the class at it? No. But you don’t need to be the best in the class.
Again, third progression, an absolute dime downfield. This is a laser. Nice subtle pocket movement here as well, he feels #99 on the defense getting a little push, slides, fires downfield, and hits his guy perfectly in stride.
There are issues however with his speed of processing.
A lot of it is due to Ohio State’s offensive scheme, which is filled with option routes and long-developing routes - not supportive of a quick release time.
But even independent of scheme, Fields was slow at getting rid of the ball. A lot of times, he could get away with it - Fields is elusive and really strong, shaking off tacklers in the pocket all the time. But especially under pressure and when defenses try to confuse him.
So there are a lot of problems on this play.
I mean, I didn’t need to circle it. But either way, Fields had two throws he could, and should have thrown. His first progression looks to be Olave on this out-route - which Fields turns down for whatever reason. It’s a tougher throw because he has to layer it over this DB, but Fields has made that throw before. As have the other QBs in this draft. And Olave is comfortably open in addition.
Fields turns it down and goes to his 2nd option here - which is #11. The ball should already be out on the frame below. Instead, Fields - who has the arm strength to throw this, decides to use two hitches and then by then, the safety has flipped their hips and it’s too late. Now things go wrong, at this point, Fields is out of options. His checkdown isn’t open, and Garrett Wilson failed to separate over the middle. But instead of tucking it and running, or throwing this away, Fields decides to try to make something happen, tosses it up into tight coverage while being hit, and it results in a tip drill interception.
If Fields had made the decision to progress to #11 down the sideline quicker, this might not only be a completion, it could be a TD. But the general slowness of decision making and lack of decisiveness hurts. A lot. And Fields has a lot to do with it - as much as his scheme was harmful, he also was part of that habit of holding the ball.
Of the 5 QBs in this draft, Fields took the longest average time to throw. Even worse, when Fields is blitzed - he takes even longer to release the ball, which is… crazy.
So again - Fields’ problem isn’t going through progressions. Fields’ problem isn’t making bad decisions - although he has his fair share. His problem is speed of the game.
If you give Fields time in the pocket, he will pick you apart - but I question how quickly Fields will speed up this ability. Again, he’s not bad at it. But he needs work, as most college QBs do. It’s just speeding up the process, not making the process better.
In fact, I like Fields’ pure decision making better than guys like Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson - his problem is not reading the field, or getting baited into throws - it’s just getting quicker at the process.
Which is fixable. He’s just a half-tick slow on decisions, but he’s not bad at actually determining the decision - to put it more eloquently. And this also comes to the point of anticipation - Fields isn’t a great anticipation thrower. Not many college QBs are. But he’s going to need to develop that anticipation, because that will help with quicker decisions and anticipating windows opening or closings. He does show good anticipation throwing to the sidelines at times, but he’s clearly got room to improve - which is to be expected. He’s just gotta be more decisive. But being late on these throws to the outside and not throwing with anticipation will get you intercepted in the NFL. Fields can throw with anticipation, he shows it - it’s just about consistency in that department.
My biggest problem with Fields is his pocket presence and internal clock. He’s almost Beathard-like in the pocket, he can be oblivious to the pass-rush at times and he takes some nasty hits as a result. It’s not that he doesn’t have the ability to slide and reset, or step up in the pocket - when he does it, he does it really, really well.
But as you can see, he can do it. But he runs into far too many sacks and sometimes is just oblivious to what happens around him. It’s a blessing and curse. For all you know, this is what Shanahan could love most about Fields - keeping his eyes downfield.
Fields just needs to get better at feeling when the pass-rush gets there, not at the actual evading of the pass rush. He needs to get better at identifying when to stand tall and take a hit, and when to duck out of the pocket. And again, part of this is speed of decision-making. He just needs to be a tick faster.
This is a play where it’s like - Fields has the arm to throw this two seconds before he gets hit. I don’t know why he felt the need for two hitches. But this is an example of Fields just not feeling the pressure. If he stops earlier and throws this earlier, it’s a big gain because I mean - his guy is wide open at the bottom of the screen here. And this is also a lack of anticipation - this ball could have been released earlier, but Fields only decided to release it once he saw the WR for sure open.
This is what contributed to his astronomically high sack rate at Ohio State. Again, a lot of it was scheme, and often, his OL didn’t really help. But a lot falls on him too.