Justin Fields: Future 49ers QB? A film and statistical breakdown, and summary of his fit with the 49ers.
Looking at what makes Fields the odds-on favorite to go #3 overall to the 49ers, and summarizing the prospect through data and film.
Playmaking
By now, I’m sure you guys have watched multiple Fields, Wilson, Lance, even Jones’ highlight reels and gotten the fix you needed. Fields, Wilson, and Lance excel at playmaking - and Fields brings the exciting element to this offense, that frankly, has been lacking since Steve Young - although prime Colin Kaepernick might have something to say about that.
30 yard down flick, off-platform, on the move, across the body, tight window. I mean this is crazy. People love to look at these throws done in the pro-days, but Fields has done it - in game.
Fields isn’t extremely elusive, but he’s got great straight line speed and a nasty spin move that he uses all the time, whether it’s spinning into the endzone or out of the pocket. There should be no questions about his playmaking ability. He can playmake outside of the pocket (and inside) - while I criticized his pocket presence and internal clock, Fields shows that he can be very good at those two at times. It’s proof that he can improve in those areas, and you won’t get a better example than this.
He gets to his final (non-checkdown) progression, fires an absolute beauty of a deep ball downfield for the TD, and does so while stepping up in the pocket, feeling a bit of pressure, and standing and taking the hit.
Again, he can roll both ways, and make really tough throws, both with touch and velocity. His physical tools and instincts really shine here.
In addition to playmaking as a passer, he’s an outstanding runner. Fields can be a game-breaker with his legs or with his arm, a dual threat that is a passer first - which is so valuable and effective in this league.
There should be zero question about Fields’ ability to make wow plays. He can do it. He’s also incredible balanced and strong as a ball-carrier, consistently shaking off tacklers in the pocket and on the move. Going for the legs on Fields doesn’t work all that well.
Summary
If the 49ers pick Justin Fields, you should be ecstatic. This is one of the most electrifying players in college football - and simultaneously, one of the most efficient players in college football.
I think he could definitely improve his pocket presence, his internal clock, and how quickly he can speed up his decision-making. I have zero questions about his playmaking ability, his incredible accuracy, his physical traits, and his ability to limit turnovers - save for a couple of bad moments this season. He doesn’t have problems with not seeing a LB in the flat or a safety breaking, he simply is late on decisions at times.
Strengths
Intermediate accuracy
Deep accuracy
Playmaking
Touch throws
Drive throws
Rushing ability
Neutral
Short accuracy
Anticipation to all parts of the field
Weaknesses
Being consistently decisive
Pocket presence
Internal clock
I think Fields has been given a really bad shake this offseason - and when comparing his tape and advanced stats to guys like Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance - I can’t seem to figure out why Fields isn’t firmly in the conversation for QB1. Whatever the reason may be, if the 49ers select Fields, they will be getting a player that would go #1 overall in many drafts.
Per the charting model that I linked in part one, Fields is without a doubt the most accurate QB in this class. While he has quite a bit of bad throws stemming from holding the ball too long and trying to make something out of nothing, one cannot ignore the outstanding intermediate accuracy that Fields displayed. Fields was also great on 3rd down/4th down, while being aggressive - as approximately 64% of his attempts traveled beyond the 1st down marker on the money down. That would be 3rd in this class, behind Lawrence who is around 67%, and Trey Lance who is around a stunning 84%.
Fields was also quite accurate under pressure, although I don’t believe this is as representative of his performance - because Fields often looked to his checkdowns and wasn’t pushing the ball downfield. However, he was the most pressured QB in this class by a large margin, and again, was not helped by scheme - so there are reasons to be OK with that.
Fields spread the ball out, targeting outside the numbers and was quite accurate at doing so. And while his tight window accuracy wasn’t Zach Wilson level and was more on par with Trey Lance, his contested and uncontested window accuracy was outstanding.
If there’s one word to keep in mind with Fields, it’s accurate. If you give him time, he will pick you apart.
How does he fit in the Shanahan offense?
Well, his elite intermediate accuracy suggests he will fit very well. While I think Fields needs to get a lot quicker at getting rid of the ball, a lot of that is scheme - it’s just hard to project that without having seen it yet. Short answer: yes, Fields fits the Shanahan offense quite well.
He may struggle his rookie year with pressure and will likely take a lot of sacks, but I believe if you stick with him, you will be rewarded.
And while he’s not as experienced as Trey Lance under center, he’s more experienced than both Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones, and has similar experience to Zach Wilson. I honestly don’t get this pro-ready obsession, but both Fields and Lance are more ready to compete Year 1 than Jones - even if that’s not the narrative that you hear everywhere. Fields was quite good in his limited sample size under center, so I look forward to seeing more of that.
My comparison (really, a ceiling) for him, although I find comparisons to be more for fun rather than useful, would be something in between DeShaun Watson and Carson Wentz, pre-injury. I think Watson is a lot more instinctual and a quicker decision maker, but Fields does remind me quite a bit of a pre-injury Carson Wentz - although he’s much faster.
He’s aggressive but calm in the pocket, a tough, fearless player that can take over a game with his arm or when nothing is working, his legs. He’s one of the most accurate prospects in years but combines it with a 4.4 40 yard dash, and while he’s got his own fair share of question marks, pairing him with Kyle Shanahan could be a defensive coordinator’s worst nightmare.
In general, this is a premier talent. And should the 49ers do the expected and select Fields, 49ers fans should be very, very excited. If the 49ers do select him, this is an A+ pick, without a doubt.
I'm not super invested in who we take (beyond really being scared of the bust potential on Lance) but Fields really seems to be the complete package. He's who I'd take if it were my call.
Over the last 2 days I've watched every 2020 snap by Fields & Jones, and quite a bit by Lance.
Going into it I thought I would like Fields, Jones, and then Lance. After watching it, I like Jones & then Lance.
Fields isn't even in the conversation for me any more. He's the Kyler Murray you bought on Wish. He does nothing well that this system requires.
Jones is a clone of Matt Ryan. I can see exactly what he looks like in the KS system, and it's really good.
Lance though, is just a big pile of raw material. He's Kaepernick back when we thought Kaepernick's potential was HOF if he just keeps improving. It's really a question of whether Shanahan wants the pocket QB he's had before, or if he wants to attempt to mold raw talent into his ideal QB.