I'm cool with Fields or Lance (or Wilson). Not a fan of Mac Jones. I don't like the Kap/newton comps being handed out for Fields and Lance (i know you aren't, just general comment)... feels kinda lazy. They are much more advanced prospects than people give them credit for.
I completely agree in all points of your comment. I will be very upset if we draft Mac, but I honestly don’t think that that is the route we’re headed.
The Kaep = Lance comparisons are lazy. I am not completely on board with Lance because his lacking of experience concerns me, but I’m sure with a year of sitting behind Jimmy he’d be fine.
Lance also has the concern of playing against much lower competition. He's the guy I'd feel the least comfortable taking. At least with Jones you know there's a really good chance he'll be at least mediocre (Kirk Cousins). Lance is a guy who could be HOF, or out of the league in 5 years.
hard disagree. the competition stance is HIGHLY overblown, the DBs and LB play he faced was on par with the competition Wilson faced at the FBS independent level.
Never, never, never settle for the "safe pick". It always ends up bad.
Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson were dangerous, raw picks.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were "high bust probability".
Justin Herbert was a complete reach at #6 overall.
Josh Rosen was a safe pick. Trubisky was the consensus #1 as was Sam Darnold. Jared Goff was a safe pick, Wentz was risky. Even with Wentz's bad season, his career far surpassing Goff to this point.
People fall into these narratives every draft without taking a step back and looking at history which undoubtedly proves: traits > perception.
I've watched every snap of these guys. I'd be 100% comfortable with taking Lance over Fields.
People perceive high floor as someone who's a good passer and that's it.
The actual high floor QBs are the ones that have instantly translatable skills. The skills that are translatable?
- Experience under center
- Decision-making/limiting mistakes
- Short accuracy
- Running ability
Lance has the best short accuracy in this class by Derrik Klassen and my own charting system. He's also the best decision maker, he's also the best runner, and he's also got the most experience under center.
Those four traits will give you the highest floor because those work in any and every offense.
what makes a QB elite is if they can go past it.
I really don't understand these competition arguments because the competition that BYU faced was on the same level that Lance faced at NDSU. And Lance didnt have a top 2 in the nation graded OL and WR corps (Wilson did).
Jones floor is far lower than any of these 5 QBs, why? because he is going to have to develop so far mentally to make up for the lack of high level traits. He can't make drive throws, he can't push the ball to the sidelines, his "accuracy" is good but his ball placement? shoddy, especially downfield. His footwork is sloppy, he drops his eyes against pressure which makes him look good navigating the pocket, but it also makes him miss wide open reads downfield.
I disagree heavily with Jones having a really good chance of becoming Kirk Cousins, because Jones' arm and mechanics while on the move are terrible. Jones threw a total of 10 times on the bootleg, and was bad. Kirk Cousins is statistically a top 5 bootleg QB in the league.
Don't fall for the same old draft narratives that get proven wrong time and time again. Jones is not a safe pick, he has the same amount of starts as Lance, he works in an incredibly easy offense where 1 in three throws are screens shovels or RPOs. And he was pressured the least of all the top 5 QBs.
You'd be relying on Jones developing into a Brees-like processor, and that is impossible at a young age for QBs. He'd need 5 to 6 years of expeirence before he gained that, and even then , its not a guarantee. Garoppolo had 6 years in the league, under Brady, Belichick, and Shanahan. He still throws picks at a top 5 rate in the league.
Jones perceived CEILING would be that of a Kirk Cousins or Matt Ryan, I favor the latter due to lesser athleticism.
His floor? Blake Bortles. Jameis Winston.
Vs. Fields or Lance, where it's like, even if they don't develop as passers, their floors are something like Marcus Mariota, Tyrod Taylor. Their ceilings? Far higher than Cousins or Ryan.
You don't trade three 1sts and a third and then play it safe.
Josh Allen and Carson Wentz are from similar levels as Lance. Both are arguably the best QBs in their respective classes (if Wentz bounces back).
Patrick Mahomes played in the Big 12. Kyler Murray played in the big 12. Those aren't semblances of defenses.. Justin Herbert played in an incredibly weak Pac 12. So did Goff.
The competition applies for guys like Watson, Haskins, Lock, Tagovailoa, Burrow, and Trubisky. Only one has really panned out on that list, the jury is out on Burrow and Tua (though I think they will eventually pan out).
At the end of the day, the film > everything else, and it's hard to ignore what I see on film with Lance - an elite processor with elite physical gifts and inconsistent accuracy stemming from small mechanical issues.
Is Fields better? Yes. but I'd be 100% comfy taking Lance.
I think the questions about Lance are:
- can he fix the mechanical inconsistencies and intermediate accuracy
- how quickly can he be ready after not playing for a year
- can he learn to protect himself as a runner?
- how quickly can he adjust to faster game speed overall (faster DBs, but faster WRs too.)
The sample size doesn't matter to me because certain traits stay consistent within a QB, others do not. People often correlate sample size with success because with higher sample size comes lesser possibility of flukey results. With Lance, on tape, I don't see flukey results, and I don't expect higher sample size to change what he did.
Excellent work as usual. The slower processing, while overblown in the MSM, does give me pause when considering fields versus Lance; Particularly in a complex NFL offense, with more responsibility and increased game speed. Will we deal with Beathard like sacks? He has the arm to make up for late decisions, as well as pinpoint accuracy...but why not start with the prospect who’s shown these abilities (albeit against lesser comp)?
Excellent article Riqo, as ever. Fundamentally, having elite accuracy is going to take Fields far in his career and I think coaching and scheme can improve his weaknesses (even if you need to invest in superior OL over receivers).
No QB is a sure bet, ever, but this guy should be qb1 almost every year (including this one) someone taking him outside of top 2 picks is daylight robbery! If Shanahan likes him, we're set for multiple playoff and SB runs. If he doesn't, it's because he values the pocket Presence, decisiveness and short area Accruacy - all of which are strengths of Lance and then once again, we'll be set!
I honestly think we can't go too wrong with this pick if its Fields or Lance, whoever Shanny prefers!
Many thanks for all your work, it always very very interesting. He needs a further step for the next level, I think it will depend most by what we can't see on tapes : his personality and attitude. He has all the tools, if he will understand how much work he will need he can be one of the best. It is the same for all of them of course. He showed mental ad physical toughness too, and I'm 51% Fields and 49% Lance just for what you call "gut feeling". Hope to be happy on April 29th
I'm not super invested in who we take (beyond really being scared of the bust potential on Lance) but Fields really seems to be the complete package. He's who I'd take if it were my call.
Over the last 2 days I've watched every 2020 snap by Fields & Jones, and quite a bit by Lance.
Going into it I thought I would like Fields, Jones, and then Lance. After watching it, I like Jones & then Lance.
Fields isn't even in the conversation for me any more. He's the Kyler Murray you bought on Wish. He does nothing well that this system requires.
Jones is a clone of Matt Ryan. I can see exactly what he looks like in the KS system, and it's really good.
Lance though, is just a big pile of raw material. He's Kaepernick back when we thought Kaepernick's potential was HOF if he just keeps improving. It's really a question of whether Shanahan wants the pocket QB he's had before, or if he wants to attempt to mold raw talent into his ideal QB.
I don't think Lance is Kap, mainly because: post snap processing, short accuracy, and the decision making. Lance's downfield accuracy is questionable but his short accuracy (Derrik Klassen) is elite. And then he goes through his progressions a lot better than Kap.
I've felt he's the pick for a while, but it does look like it could be Mac. I don't know if Fields is that bad as you seem to think though, Fields is still incredibly talented. I do agree that he's probably the worst fit right away among the three, a lot of what QBs show is based on their system, and Fields is probably hurt the most by that.
I don't think Jones has the arm talent that Ryan does... I see more Dalton than Ryan. They also ran a really heavy RPO offense at Bama, we ran like... 15 total RPOs last season. So he's not as seamless of a fit as you think, also taken the least snaps under center among the three. But you are right that the ability to play under pressure and his overall intermediate accuracy + quick decision making is easy to project to the offense.
Lance is just impossible for a plebe like me to really evaluate. Way too many games with only 10-15 pass attempts. It's not clear enough how what he does fits what we do. We're not asking a QB to run 40% of the time and I sure as hell can't see Shanahan signing up for RG3. So it's just looking at traits and wondering if Shanahan believes he can build a QB from raw traits.
I read internal clock as a weakness and immediately thought of all of those stupid delay of game penalties with Kaep!
Keep in mind that this is not a comp between Fields and Kaep, just made me reminisce. I really, really hope it’s Fields.
I'm cool with Fields or Lance (or Wilson). Not a fan of Mac Jones. I don't like the Kap/newton comps being handed out for Fields and Lance (i know you aren't, just general comment)... feels kinda lazy. They are much more advanced prospects than people give them credit for.
I completely agree in all points of your comment. I will be very upset if we draft Mac, but I honestly don’t think that that is the route we’re headed.
The Kaep = Lance comparisons are lazy. I am not completely on board with Lance because his lacking of experience concerns me, but I’m sure with a year of sitting behind Jimmy he’d be fine.
Lawrence
Fields
Wilson
Lance
Jones
Lance also has the concern of playing against much lower competition. He's the guy I'd feel the least comfortable taking. At least with Jones you know there's a really good chance he'll be at least mediocre (Kirk Cousins). Lance is a guy who could be HOF, or out of the league in 5 years.
Yup!
hard disagree. the competition stance is HIGHLY overblown, the DBs and LB play he faced was on par with the competition Wilson faced at the FBS independent level.
Never, never, never settle for the "safe pick". It always ends up bad.
Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson were dangerous, raw picks.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were "high bust probability".
Justin Herbert was a complete reach at #6 overall.
Josh Rosen was a safe pick. Trubisky was the consensus #1 as was Sam Darnold. Jared Goff was a safe pick, Wentz was risky. Even with Wentz's bad season, his career far surpassing Goff to this point.
People fall into these narratives every draft without taking a step back and looking at history which undoubtedly proves: traits > perception.
I've watched every snap of these guys. I'd be 100% comfortable with taking Lance over Fields.
People perceive high floor as someone who's a good passer and that's it.
The actual high floor QBs are the ones that have instantly translatable skills. The skills that are translatable?
- Experience under center
- Decision-making/limiting mistakes
- Short accuracy
- Running ability
Lance has the best short accuracy in this class by Derrik Klassen and my own charting system. He's also the best decision maker, he's also the best runner, and he's also got the most experience under center.
Those four traits will give you the highest floor because those work in any and every offense.
what makes a QB elite is if they can go past it.
I really don't understand these competition arguments because the competition that BYU faced was on the same level that Lance faced at NDSU. And Lance didnt have a top 2 in the nation graded OL and WR corps (Wilson did).
Jones floor is far lower than any of these 5 QBs, why? because he is going to have to develop so far mentally to make up for the lack of high level traits. He can't make drive throws, he can't push the ball to the sidelines, his "accuracy" is good but his ball placement? shoddy, especially downfield. His footwork is sloppy, he drops his eyes against pressure which makes him look good navigating the pocket, but it also makes him miss wide open reads downfield.
I disagree heavily with Jones having a really good chance of becoming Kirk Cousins, because Jones' arm and mechanics while on the move are terrible. Jones threw a total of 10 times on the bootleg, and was bad. Kirk Cousins is statistically a top 5 bootleg QB in the league.
Don't fall for the same old draft narratives that get proven wrong time and time again. Jones is not a safe pick, he has the same amount of starts as Lance, he works in an incredibly easy offense where 1 in three throws are screens shovels or RPOs. And he was pressured the least of all the top 5 QBs.
You'd be relying on Jones developing into a Brees-like processor, and that is impossible at a young age for QBs. He'd need 5 to 6 years of expeirence before he gained that, and even then , its not a guarantee. Garoppolo had 6 years in the league, under Brady, Belichick, and Shanahan. He still throws picks at a top 5 rate in the league.
Jones perceived CEILING would be that of a Kirk Cousins or Matt Ryan, I favor the latter due to lesser athleticism.
His floor? Blake Bortles. Jameis Winston.
Vs. Fields or Lance, where it's like, even if they don't develop as passers, their floors are something like Marcus Mariota, Tyrod Taylor. Their ceilings? Far higher than Cousins or Ryan.
You don't trade three 1sts and a third and then play it safe.
You look at the competition arguments....
Josh Allen and Carson Wentz are from similar levels as Lance. Both are arguably the best QBs in their respective classes (if Wentz bounces back).
Patrick Mahomes played in the Big 12. Kyler Murray played in the big 12. Those aren't semblances of defenses.. Justin Herbert played in an incredibly weak Pac 12. So did Goff.
The competition applies for guys like Watson, Haskins, Lock, Tagovailoa, Burrow, and Trubisky. Only one has really panned out on that list, the jury is out on Burrow and Tua (though I think they will eventually pan out).
At the end of the day, the film > everything else, and it's hard to ignore what I see on film with Lance - an elite processor with elite physical gifts and inconsistent accuracy stemming from small mechanical issues.
Is Fields better? Yes. but I'd be 100% comfy taking Lance.
I think the questions about Lance are:
- can he fix the mechanical inconsistencies and intermediate accuracy
- how quickly can he be ready after not playing for a year
- can he learn to protect himself as a runner?
- how quickly can he adjust to faster game speed overall (faster DBs, but faster WRs too.)
The sample size doesn't matter to me because certain traits stay consistent within a QB, others do not. People often correlate sample size with success because with higher sample size comes lesser possibility of flukey results. With Lance, on tape, I don't see flukey results, and I don't expect higher sample size to change what he did.
Please, for the love all that is holy, pick Fields.
Excellent work as usual. The slower processing, while overblown in the MSM, does give me pause when considering fields versus Lance; Particularly in a complex NFL offense, with more responsibility and increased game speed. Will we deal with Beathard like sacks? He has the arm to make up for late decisions, as well as pinpoint accuracy...but why not start with the prospect who’s shown these abilities (albeit against lesser comp)?
Excellent article Riqo, as ever. Fundamentally, having elite accuracy is going to take Fields far in his career and I think coaching and scheme can improve his weaknesses (even if you need to invest in superior OL over receivers).
No QB is a sure bet, ever, but this guy should be qb1 almost every year (including this one) someone taking him outside of top 2 picks is daylight robbery! If Shanahan likes him, we're set for multiple playoff and SB runs. If he doesn't, it's because he values the pocket Presence, decisiveness and short area Accruacy - all of which are strengths of Lance and then once again, we'll be set!
I honestly think we can't go too wrong with this pick if its Fields or Lance, whoever Shanny prefers!
Nice work Riqo!
Many thanks for all your work, it always very very interesting. He needs a further step for the next level, I think it will depend most by what we can't see on tapes : his personality and attitude. He has all the tools, if he will understand how much work he will need he can be one of the best. It is the same for all of them of course. He showed mental ad physical toughness too, and I'm 51% Fields and 49% Lance just for what you call "gut feeling". Hope to be happy on April 29th
I'm not super invested in who we take (beyond really being scared of the bust potential on Lance) but Fields really seems to be the complete package. He's who I'd take if it were my call.
Over the last 2 days I've watched every 2020 snap by Fields & Jones, and quite a bit by Lance.
Going into it I thought I would like Fields, Jones, and then Lance. After watching it, I like Jones & then Lance.
Fields isn't even in the conversation for me any more. He's the Kyler Murray you bought on Wish. He does nothing well that this system requires.
Jones is a clone of Matt Ryan. I can see exactly what he looks like in the KS system, and it's really good.
Lance though, is just a big pile of raw material. He's Kaepernick back when we thought Kaepernick's potential was HOF if he just keeps improving. It's really a question of whether Shanahan wants the pocket QB he's had before, or if he wants to attempt to mold raw talent into his ideal QB.
I don't think Lance is Kap, mainly because: post snap processing, short accuracy, and the decision making. Lance's downfield accuracy is questionable but his short accuracy (Derrik Klassen) is elite. And then he goes through his progressions a lot better than Kap.
I've felt he's the pick for a while, but it does look like it could be Mac. I don't know if Fields is that bad as you seem to think though, Fields is still incredibly talented. I do agree that he's probably the worst fit right away among the three, a lot of what QBs show is based on their system, and Fields is probably hurt the most by that.
I don't think Jones has the arm talent that Ryan does... I see more Dalton than Ryan. They also ran a really heavy RPO offense at Bama, we ran like... 15 total RPOs last season. So he's not as seamless of a fit as you think, also taken the least snaps under center among the three. But you are right that the ability to play under pressure and his overall intermediate accuracy + quick decision making is easy to project to the offense.
Lance is just impossible for a plebe like me to really evaluate. Way too many games with only 10-15 pass attempts. It's not clear enough how what he does fits what we do. We're not asking a QB to run 40% of the time and I sure as hell can't see Shanahan signing up for RG3. So it's just looking at traits and wondering if Shanahan believes he can build a QB from raw traits.