I very much enjoyed this article, sir. Very well written. I respect the skills of Fields, Jones and Lance but am rooting for Fields. I worry about Lance’s accuracy. I agree with you regarding Jone’s comps. If Jones is the pick I believe the Niners must trade Jimmy this year because when the beat writers ask Kyle in what ways is Jones, who is a ‘pocket passer’ like Jimmy, better than Jimmy, for the price of two future firsts and a third, and Kyle answers ‘pocket presence, footwork, accuracy and the deep ball’ Jimmy’s morale is going to go South and the locker room may divide.
I wouldn't worry about Lance's accuracy. If we take Lance, it's because Shanahan will be changing everything about him as a passer, aside from natural physical traits. The worry is that he doesn't develop. That's the big risk.
There is no time for caution. I can't see anything Mac jones do so much better than Fields or Lance could do with the right attitude and work ethic, and I would bet on a successful career for both. My main regret is we can only chose one of them. I can't believe KS will pass on both to take Mac Jones. It would be much worse than Alex Smith/Aaron Rodgers.
At this point it is not Mac the problem. It is Shanahan. I saw the same situation in european soccer many times, HCs obsessed by his "system", mortifying players abilities and their special qualities because they don't fit "the system". It is wasting draft capital for a Pettis, or taking Deebo over AJ Brown, don't scout Mahomes or Watson waiting for WTF Cousins, now the cherry on the top, 2 1st and a 3rd for the new Andy Dalton. It is the same mentality, the System over everything. This kind of HCs has usually a good and very good success in very particular circumstances, often with average or below average players or maybe in teams with huge economical availability (there is no cap in european soccer), but always for a short time. In the long run the playmaking ability is by far superior to "the system" at top level, and this kind of HCs maybe are remembered as innovators, but not winners (or not so much winners). I'm afraid Shan didn't learn anything by his SB losses, and the possible fracture between him and the FO part leaning to Lance/Fields could be a bad issue if Jones will not be a new Breese or Joe Montana (as I already red this comparison this morning). We will see, it is all we can do. Hope to see your website very soon.
Honestly I have a hard time seeing any of these 3 being worth the trade we made. Do you really trade that high for a guy who is limited to "pure pocket passer"? Do you really trade that high for a full blown project? Fields is at least projected that high, but watching every snap from 2020, I don't see it. I don't see Shanahan being so wowed by Kyler Murray that he throws out his system and trades a huge haul for a lesser version of that.
I pray that Shanahan has some sort of insider info from the Jets and we actually end up with Wilson.
I will say, I think you make the same mistake dismissing Jones/Ryan comparisons that you point out in Brady/Brees analogies: Comparing the veteran NFL player to the college prospect.Go look up Matt Ryan scouting reports. Knocks on his lack of arm strength are all over. And they're exactly the same as Jones: Good, but not great arm talent. And arm strength is virtually guaranteed to improve with age, as muscle density naturally increases between the age of 21-28. And his arm is good enough now to deliver NFL throws to every part of the field. I just don't believe that's a legitimate criticism (unlike, say his DUI, his absolute lack of athletic ability, or questioning his work ethic based on his physique).
It's fair, but I'm not really into comparing scouting reports... when I release the Mac breakdown i'll have video example, but there were countless times on the all-22 angle where Jones had to step into/use nearly two hitches to drive the ball downfield like, 25-30 yards. the problem with that is even if he made the decision to throw it on time, he still takes a bit to actually get it out.
Sports Info Solution actually charts how quickly the ball gets there, and Mac's is the slowest in the class - a 15 yard throw by each Lawrence and Mac, if they threw it - Lawrence's would reach the 20 yard mark about 1.5 yards. It may seem trivial, but in a fast NFL game, it's really important.
Matt Ryan I actually think has similar arm talent, but Ryan is a lot better at keeping the ball trajectory low and getting it there a bit quicker/without two to three hitches. Arm talent isnt just about the actual throw, its about the base and what came before.
Another stat that would be useful - Jones targeted outside the numbers the least among the top 5 QBs, and had the least amount of targets from the far side to outside the numbers as well.
You can argue that it's not as integral in this scheme, but go back and look at Matt Ryan 2016 heat maps - those were areas of the field that saw decent usage in that offense. I don't see why Shanahan needs to self-limit himself with playcalling, and with Mac, it's going to need to be done, to a lesser degree however.
Yeah, realistically Jones' ability will likely limit the offense unless he takes some big strides forward. But I see those steps are more likely than the ones Fields or Lance would need to make just to be functional in this system, let alone great.
"If you want to believe that Jimmy G is staying this season, Adam Schefter is your guy. If you want to believe that the 49ers are picking Mac Jones and moving on from Jimmy, enter Mike Silver. If you want to believe that Justin Fields is the guy, then you’ll be happy to know that at least four high ranking officials in other front offices believe so as well. If you want to believe that Trey Lance is the guy, than Rich Eisen, John Middlekauf, and others are your guys. And if you think it’s Kyle Pitts - Grant Cohn."
I think this “Fields is no longer being looked at at 3” and “it’s Lance or Jones at 3” is just a huge smokescreen put out by the FO and their buddies. I think the pick has been Fields all along.
I very much enjoyed this article, sir. Very well written. I respect the skills of Fields, Jones and Lance but am rooting for Fields. I worry about Lance’s accuracy. I agree with you regarding Jone’s comps. If Jones is the pick I believe the Niners must trade Jimmy this year because when the beat writers ask Kyle in what ways is Jones, who is a ‘pocket passer’ like Jimmy, better than Jimmy, for the price of two future firsts and a third, and Kyle answers ‘pocket presence, footwork, accuracy and the deep ball’ Jimmy’s morale is going to go South and the locker room may divide.
thanks! and yeah. i can't imagine the plan is to keep Jimmy and Mac on the same roster
I wouldn't worry about Lance's accuracy. If we take Lance, it's because Shanahan will be changing everything about him as a passer, aside from natural physical traits. The worry is that he doesn't develop. That's the big risk.
My hope is Fields because he’ll be able to start if/when Jimmy gets hurt.
dont think Jimmy would be in picture if it was Fields, tbh
There is no time for caution. I can't see anything Mac jones do so much better than Fields or Lance could do with the right attitude and work ethic, and I would bet on a successful career for both. My main regret is we can only chose one of them. I can't believe KS will pass on both to take Mac Jones. It would be much worse than Alex Smith/Aaron Rodgers.
I dont think Mac is that bad, but it does feel awfully similar to Trubisky over Watson and Mahomes.
At this point it is not Mac the problem. It is Shanahan. I saw the same situation in european soccer many times, HCs obsessed by his "system", mortifying players abilities and their special qualities because they don't fit "the system". It is wasting draft capital for a Pettis, or taking Deebo over AJ Brown, don't scout Mahomes or Watson waiting for WTF Cousins, now the cherry on the top, 2 1st and a 3rd for the new Andy Dalton. It is the same mentality, the System over everything. This kind of HCs has usually a good and very good success in very particular circumstances, often with average or below average players or maybe in teams with huge economical availability (there is no cap in european soccer), but always for a short time. In the long run the playmaking ability is by far superior to "the system" at top level, and this kind of HCs maybe are remembered as innovators, but not winners (or not so much winners). I'm afraid Shan didn't learn anything by his SB losses, and the possible fracture between him and the FO part leaning to Lance/Fields could be a bad issue if Jones will not be a new Breese or Joe Montana (as I already red this comparison this morning). We will see, it is all we can do. Hope to see your website very soon.
Honestly I have a hard time seeing any of these 3 being worth the trade we made. Do you really trade that high for a guy who is limited to "pure pocket passer"? Do you really trade that high for a full blown project? Fields is at least projected that high, but watching every snap from 2020, I don't see it. I don't see Shanahan being so wowed by Kyler Murray that he throws out his system and trades a huge haul for a lesser version of that.
I pray that Shanahan has some sort of insider info from the Jets and we actually end up with Wilson.
I will say, I think you make the same mistake dismissing Jones/Ryan comparisons that you point out in Brady/Brees analogies: Comparing the veteran NFL player to the college prospect.Go look up Matt Ryan scouting reports. Knocks on his lack of arm strength are all over. And they're exactly the same as Jones: Good, but not great arm talent. And arm strength is virtually guaranteed to improve with age, as muscle density naturally increases between the age of 21-28. And his arm is good enough now to deliver NFL throws to every part of the field. I just don't believe that's a legitimate criticism (unlike, say his DUI, his absolute lack of athletic ability, or questioning his work ethic based on his physique).
It's fair, but I'm not really into comparing scouting reports... when I release the Mac breakdown i'll have video example, but there were countless times on the all-22 angle where Jones had to step into/use nearly two hitches to drive the ball downfield like, 25-30 yards. the problem with that is even if he made the decision to throw it on time, he still takes a bit to actually get it out.
Sports Info Solution actually charts how quickly the ball gets there, and Mac's is the slowest in the class - a 15 yard throw by each Lawrence and Mac, if they threw it - Lawrence's would reach the 20 yard mark about 1.5 yards. It may seem trivial, but in a fast NFL game, it's really important.
Matt Ryan I actually think has similar arm talent, but Ryan is a lot better at keeping the ball trajectory low and getting it there a bit quicker/without two to three hitches. Arm talent isnt just about the actual throw, its about the base and what came before.
Another stat that would be useful - Jones targeted outside the numbers the least among the top 5 QBs, and had the least amount of targets from the far side to outside the numbers as well.
You can argue that it's not as integral in this scheme, but go back and look at Matt Ryan 2016 heat maps - those were areas of the field that saw decent usage in that offense. I don't see why Shanahan needs to self-limit himself with playcalling, and with Mac, it's going to need to be done, to a lesser degree however.
Yeah, realistically Jones' ability will likely limit the offense unless he takes some big strides forward. But I see those steps are more likely than the ones Fields or Lance would need to make just to be functional in this system, let alone great.
I loved this bit by the way:
"If you want to believe that Jimmy G is staying this season, Adam Schefter is your guy. If you want to believe that the 49ers are picking Mac Jones and moving on from Jimmy, enter Mike Silver. If you want to believe that Justin Fields is the guy, then you’ll be happy to know that at least four high ranking officials in other front offices believe so as well. If you want to believe that Trey Lance is the guy, than Rich Eisen, John Middlekauf, and others are your guys. And if you think it’s Kyle Pitts - Grant Cohn."
1000% spot on.
I think this “Fields is no longer being looked at at 3” and “it’s Lance or Jones at 3” is just a huge smokescreen put out by the FO and their buddies. I think the pick has been Fields all along.