Is Mac Jones really the pick at #3?

Reputable sources expect the 49ers draft choice to be Mac Jones. I say... not so fast.

(Santa Clara) - Friday afternoon, noted NFL insider Mike Silver - a known Shanahan associate, dropped this barrage of info on Twitter, setting 49ers social media ablaze with renewed fears of Jones becoming the 3rd overall draft pick next Thursday.

I’m not going to embed each tweet here, but here’s the general gist:

As per NFL Network policy, I am not allowed to "tip picks"... and, in any case, this is not a report. But I've been asked a lot, on here & elsewhere, which player I think the 49ers are targeting with the third pick, and I've had some conversations w/ people who know things.

I have not talked to Kyle Shanahan, who will make the ultimate decision, as he should. He's got a much envied offensive system and a very specific idea of what kind of QB can thrive in that system, and the Niners just made perhaps their boldest trade in history to get to 3.

It is my belief that the player the Niners were targeting when they made the trade--under the assumption that Lawrence & Wilson would go 1-2 to the Jags and Jets--was Alabama QB Mac Jones. (Obviously, you only make this move if you also are very high on Lawrence and Wilson).

Once they made the trade, Shanahan, GM John Lynch & other important decision-makers had the luxury of doing some extra digging. Both Ohio State's Justin Fields & North Dakota St.'s Trey Lance have many attractive qualities, and there's no reason not to continue the process.

I'd expect, in all likelihood, that Shanahan will stick with his original inclination and won't end up deciding he likes Fields or Lance more than Jones... and that he'll never get a shot at Lawrence or Wilson, who will be off the board.

Why Jones? Among other things, the Niners believe he has uncanny pocket skills, especially out of the shotgun formation, and next-level footwork. He can slide in the pocket to either side and react quickly to onrushing defenders, even unblocked ones.

Jones comes from a tennis-playing family and spent some time on the hardcourt as a kid, and that seems to correlate with the exceptional footwork. He clearly has absorbed a lot of football knowledge, and the synchronization of his throwing motion and footwork is impressive.

Again, this is not a report; just telling you what I perceive to be going on. Unless and until Kyle proclaims it, there will be enough drama to keep us at least a little on edge until the pick is announced next Thursday night. 

Right away, people picked up on the first sentence - which had the opposite effect of what Silver intended. Why specify that you aren’t allowed to tip picks, and then continue with a “not-report”?

Silver has had connections to the Shanahan tree for years, he covered Mike for a long time. It’s hard not to take this report seriously - as many reports from seemingly everyone have come out over the past couple weeks, pertaining to any of the three QBs expected to be available at #3 overall, this might be one of the more important ones if not the most notable.

Now, he clearly says he “believes” something, not that something will happen. But it’s clear that Silver does think the pick will be Jones.

Caution is needed with this however. Silver says his sources (in another video) are former Shanahan associates and people “familiar” with Kyle Shanahan.

The problem is, these are the same types of sources used to justify the recent surge of Justin Fields and Trey Lance speculation. An example would be of former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff, who worked with Shanahan in his time in “the A”. Dimitroff believes the pick would be Fields. Recently, Matt Barrows polled four executives who unanimously believe the pick is Fields. Rich Eisen talked to people that believe this trade up was (WandaVision theme) for Trey Lance all along!

So while this report is somewhat notable, considering who it’s coming from - I don’t believe Silver has sources with direct knowledge. Which again, would make his report similar to most of the others. Silver has not had any knowledge of any picks, pre-draft, dating back to 2017, but he did break the actual hiring of Kyle Shanahan. It’s unlikely he has direct knowledge of the most important decision in the last two decades with this franchise.

Back to Fields, Jones, and Lance.

Let’s be clear. Mac Jones is not a bad QB. He’s actually a pretty good QB. Generally accurate, quick to make decisions, great at avoiding pressure - a high-level ball distributor. But that’s exactly the problem.

You see, Jones isn’t the end of the world. He’s often compared to Kirk Cousins or Matt Ryan - personally, I don’t see either comps as particularly accurate. Cousins excels on the boot-action, Jones barely did it, and when he did, he was bad. Matt Ryan has special arm talent and can drive the ball very well to the 10-20 yard range, outside the numbers. Jones cannot do that on film. Rather, I see a fair comparison to Jones as an Andy Dalton - a good QB that will stick around for a good amount of time, an accurate ball distributor with not many high level traits.

And that’s exactly why the 49ers should not draft him. You see, that may be intriguing to many. It’s also not different from what the 49ers already have in Jimmy Garoppolo. Mac Jones flashes the same zone awareness issues with regards to interceptable passes that have plagued Garoppolo, and as game-speed gets faster, and receivers aren’t so much better than DBs (Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle are spectacular), that issue is going to become a lot more visible.

To Jones’ credit, he’s more athletic and also better at throwing the deep ball than Jimmy G.

It’s highly unlikely he becomes Brady or Brees. Those two have been good for so long due to a feedback loop - more experience leading to higher football intelligence. The same reason Richard Sherman, without his speed and old explosiveness, was great in 2019, is the same reason Brady remains great, and Brees was great (til this season). The only way Jones reaches their level is if he develops like them mentally, and that requires years, and years, and years. Tom Brady and Drew Brees weren’t exactly what they are now when they entered the league.

But let’s say, Jones really does become the Kirk Cousins-Andy Dalton type. Drafting Mac Jones would be a career-limiting move.

First, you are losing two future first round picks. Talent offsets talent, the only way this trade is worth it is if the QB is worth it. Strike one against Jones, because I’m not sure there are many that would trade three first round picks, and a third round pick, for Kirk Cousins.

Second, you are going to have to pay Jones. Let’s say he ends up good. Now it’s extension time, and he’s asking for more than 35M. Now, that’s with the cap increases factored. It’s well known that paying/extending mediocre to above average QBs, is a death sentence in the NFL. Does anyone want to add Kirk Cousins for $35M per year on our team right now? It requires a perfect, 2019 49ers-esque roster around them to win. Strike two.

Strike three, or the most obvious one: what happens when the play doesn’t work? Dalton and Cousins aren’t making plays for their HC, their HC is making plays for them, which they execute. Jones is the same. It’s not one or the other, you can find a QB that does both.

So the main problem with Mac Jones is not that he is bad. It’s not that he lacks anything. The main problem is that even if he develops, it’s highly unlikely that he will ever be the level of player that justifies the price tag to acquire, nor the price tag to extend. Which essentially would leave the 49ers, right back to square one. Paying a mediocre to above average QB, a lot of money, to execute a scheme.

Jones targets outside the numbers the least of the top 5 QBs. He’s also the worst at throwing outside the numbers in terms of accuracy. Jones threw a whopping 85 screens last year, or 21.4% of his passes. Jones ran RPOs 18% of the time at Bama. For reference, Joe Burrow ran them only 5% of the time. He did well under pressure, but considering he was pressured the least among the top 5 QBs, again, that’s an issue.

His advanced accuracy is not representative of his actual accuracy because he’s got one of the easiest jobs in the nation, not only in supporting cast, but in scheme. He’s distributing the ball and executing. That’s it.

I don’t believe a player as such is worth three firsts and a third round pick. I would think he would be worth, arguably, the #12 overall.

Perhaps I’m wrong. But Jones’ tape, while impressive, is also filled with subtleties that make me think twice. How many times does Mac Jones make his WR adjust? How many times do they have to come back to the ball? How many times, especially on deep routes, did they have to break off their routes and adjust to the ball, or have to “moss” a DB to make a catch. The answer to all of those questions is quite a bit. Now, that’s not to say that the other QBs don’t have similar issues.

The simple fact of the matter is, trading three firsts and a third for a QB should in theory mean trading for a QB with elite traits, someone who can eventually get an extension and still outplay their contract, the way that previous QBs have. Even if that’s “riskier” (it’s not, there’s no such thing as a less risky pick when it comes to quarterbacks), what’s even worse is almost guaranteeing that you won’t be getting a quarterback that’s going to be worth a big-money extension.

Mac Jones presents the same limitations Garoppolo does, to a lesser degree. It frankly is not the move that I believed the 49ers to be making when they moved up, but nevertheless, it seems to be the likely scenario.

He’s likely going to be a decent QB in this system, but I don’t like the long-term prospects with Jones at QB, the same that most teams would not want to have Kirk Cousins or Andy Dalton at QB for a long time. Mac Jones is the enigma of this class, because there’s a good shot he is going to be a serviceable quarterback in the NFL in this 49ers system. Trey Lance is the unknown, so young, so talented, yet so measured in his decision-making. Justin Fields is the obvious, the big-name, big-time playmaker.

If Kyle Shanahan believes he can win a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins, he probably believes the same about Mac Jones. But we won’t know til Thursday. Until then, it’s picking and choosing which source you want to believe.

If you want to believe that Jimmy G is staying this season, Adam Schefter is your guy. If you want to believe that the 49ers are picking Mac Jones and moving on from Jimmy, enter Mike Silver. If you want to believe that Justin Fields is the guy, then you’ll be happy to know that at least four high ranking officials in other front offices believe so as well. If you want to believe that Trey Lance is the guy, than Rich Eisen, John Middlekauf, and others are your guys. And if you think it’s Kyle Pitts - Grant Cohn.

One thing I cannot wrap my head around - how is it that this front office doesn’t leak a single thing about:

• DeForest Buckner trade

• Trent Williams trade

• Jimmy Garoppolo trade

• Drafting Javon Kinlaw, Brandon Aiyuk, and others.

• Trading up to #3 overall

All of these are massive moves with big implications - but not a thing was said about, for example, the 49ers actually trading up to #3. The same people that had no idea about that move… they know exactly who the pick is going to be?

I just don’t know.

One thing is for certain - whoever the 49ers pick will be entering almost a perfect situation, team-wise, that a rookie QB can enter. There’s a veteran QB already on the roster, a good offensive line, two great WRs, the best TE in the game, and the best playcaller in the NFL. It’s hard to get better than that.

For what it’s worth, my gut feeling since last summer (I had a feeling we’d be looking for a QB this season) has been that the 49ers will draft North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. I would be ecstatic with Justin Fields at the same time. But Mac Jones… while not exciting, isn’t going to stink it up in all likelihood either.

Mac Jones breakdown coming later this week, pre-draft, I’ve got plenty of content on the way.

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