Diving into the stats with Jimmy Garoppolo: Controversial, but for good reason.

Why is Garoppolo so polarizing in NFL circles?

Twitter arguments have been rampant. Reporters have asked Kyle Shanahan the question point blank. His response:

“Yes, I do believe Jimmy's going to be our quarterback next year.”

But for every seemingly point blank, set in stone answer like that, in the same press conference even, Shanahan would add:

"You look into every avenue and you see if there's something out there that can get you a ton better, that's the same answer for every position."

No coach is going to explicitly say their QB is not the guy (unless he’s really bad, or they really need to move on). And both of these statements are true. Based upon all that we’ve heard, from 49ers FO, from 49ers reporters, from NFL reporters, whatever, it has become clear that the 49ers will take an angle towards Jimmy Garoppolo which goes something like this:

If there’s an upgrade, they will look into it, and possibly take it. Otherwise, they are just fine with keeping Jimmy.

This isn’t about who replaces Jimmy, as much is it is about should we replace Jimmy. For all the fans that say “What’s your plan”, let’s make something clear - the regular 49ers fan shouldn’t be expected to have a plan. But if the 49ers organization decides to move on from Jimmy… they will have a plan. That should not be the main concern. If you are moving on from a QB, yes, you will have to take a risk. There’s an inherent risk. It’s evaluating the risk and reward and you can’t win by always playing it safe.

The main concern is do you move on from a QB, that let’s face it, the 49ers have had success with. You can argue how much of that success is because of Garoppolo, but one thing is for certain - they have had success, with him.

It’s not as simple as looking at wins and saying, we win with this QB, we should keep him. It’s not as simple as looking at one or two stats while ignoring others either.

This topic has divided 49ers fans for months already and there’s still 100 days left til the draft, which is likely when we will know for sure, Jimmy Garoppolo’s fate with this team, in the near future. An unbiased look at Garoppolo would be taking into account every positive and every negative he brings to the table, supporting each with empirical evidence, and most of all - perspective. It’s hard to find good starting QBs. It’s harder to find great ones. Garoppolo isn’t a great QB, but he’s good. Let’s dive into it.

For the sake of argument, we will only be using 2019 as a season to evaluate Garoppolo. 2017 was far too long ago to make judgements, 2018 he barely played, and 2020 he played injured. It’s unfortunate that we have to rely on a one season sample size, but there is too much conflict if we include other seasons.

Let’s be clear. It’s not crazy to be in favor of moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo. Not only has he been seriously injured in three of his five seasons that he’s been a Week 1 starter, he’s only played 32 of 57 games that he was projected to be a starter in.

The evidence is overwhelming with regards to players with injuries like his, serious lower body injuries like his ACL tear and multiple high ankle sprains. A team can afford to lose an OL for the season, a RB, a WR, a TE, pretty much any position but QB. The 49ers have lost two projected seasons of contention or competitiveness in the last three years, and Garoppolo’s injury struggles are at the center of why.

But what about the play?

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Let me make one thing extremely clear. Jimmy Garoppolo is a limited QB. He’s very limited in what he can do, what play-calls he enables, and what he can do outside of play structure. That’s OK. Most QBs have some limitations. Garoppolo unfortunately, has quite a few. And I hate to say it, but in most places, a QB with that many limitations in a scheme that accentuates his strengths and masks his weaknesses is commonly referred to as a system QB. There are only a rare handful of QBs in this league that aren’t system QBs. It’s not a bad thing. But again, Garoppolo’s limitations are particularly egregious.

His first, and arguably worst limitation: attacking the entire field. Defenses are not scared of Garoppolo’s arm, not because it’s a weak arm, but because it’s seldom used - even with deep routes in the scheme and playcalls.

On passes traveling more than 10 yards in the air, Garoppolo was 20th in the league for pass attempts, behind other QBs in similar or the same offenses - including Jared Goff (2nd), Philip Rivers (4th), Matt Ryan (5th), Aaron Rodgers (8th), Mitchell Trubisky (13th), and Patrick Mahomes (14th).

His adjusted passer rating on these attempts (adjusted accounts for dropped passes and interceptions) was 14th. Not bad.

How about passes traveling 10 or more yards in the air, with the pass direction going towards the left or right?

24th in attempts, 26th in passer rating.

The main purpose of throwing downfield is not to complete every pass, it’s to threaten the defense, to make them respect the downfield passing game, the outside the numbers passing game, to cover the whole field. Garoppolo not only inhibits that ability, he actively makes it tougher. Next-Gen Stats had three 49ers RBs in the top 11 of all NFL RBs (among qualifiers) with regards to percentage of 8-man boxes.

In short, that lack of ability to push the ball to the sidelines and downfield is exactly what causes the 49ers RBs to continually have their life harder. No other team had even two RBs in the top 11 for eight or more defenders in the box percentage - let me stress it, the 49ers had three. Coleman was #1, Mostert #9, Breida #11. This year, with Garoppolo injured for most of the season and Beathard or Mullens back there, the 49ers only had one in the top 11 (Wilson Jr at #7). And Mostert, who’s percentage last season was 32%, dropped all the way to 18% this season. Why?

Because even Beathard and Mullens, the latter of whom has a weak arm to put it lightly, still were willing to push the ball downfield and to all parts of the field, more often. This is not a joke: Nick Mullens, in his eight games this season, threw 71 passes that traveled 10 or more yards in the air and were towards the left or right. Adjust that to 16 games, it’s 142. That’s not just a fluke. In 2018, the same number for Mullens was 74 in a similar sample size of 8 games. Adjusted to 16 games, that’s 148, and again, on a much worse team. Garoppolo on a much better team, with healthy Kittle, Samuel, and a healthier OL: 109 attempts. That’s simply just unacceptable. And for the ultimate proof that this is not what Shanahan wants to do, Matt Ryan in 2016 had 157 such attempts.

We’ve already gone through Garoppolo’s struggles to throw and throw with volume to the outside, but no stat better says that story than this:

Garoppolo was 25th in attempts to receivers (any, not just WRs) lined up out wide, but was last in completion percentage (36th) and last in adjusted passer rating. Behind Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, and others. That is a massive problem and it’s part of, as explained, the reason that defenses stack the boxes against our RBs so much. If those aren’t damning enough, Garoppolo also had a TD% of 1.1 on those throws - lowest in the league among qualifiers. And an INT% of 6.7 - 3rd highest in the league behind Devlin Hodges and Eli Manning.

He makes up for it with his outstanding performance when throwing to RBs, TEs, and to the slot - with a top 10 completion percentage and independent passer rating. But that is… the definition of limited.

Nick Mullens in 8 games in 2018 had 61 attempts to WRs lined up outside. Garoppolo in 16 games in 2019 had 89. There is your playcalling difference, if you haven’t already noticed. It’s unfair to compare Garoppolo’s numbers to Matt Ryan - but it has to be done, Ryan had 41 more attempts than Garoppolo did in the same amount of games - and was top 10 in completion and independent QB rating - not last in both categories.

Intended Air Yards (per attempt)

1. Garoppolo in 2017 with a 9.2 IAY

2. Ryan in 2016 with a 9 IAY

3. Hoyer in 2017 with an 8 IAY

4. Mullens in 2018 with a 7.4 IAY

5. Beathard in 2017 with a 7.4 IAY

6. Beathard in 2018 with a 6.8 IAY

7. Mullens in 2020 with a 6.6 IAY

8. Garoppolo in 2019 with a 6.5 IAY

9. Garoppolo in 2020 with a 6.2 IAY

Completed Air Yards (per attempt)

1. Ryan in 2016 with 7.2 CAY

2. Garoppolo in 2017 with 6.8 CAY

3. Mullens in 2018 with a 5.8 CAY

4. Hoyer in 2017 with a 5.8 CAY

5. Mullens in 2020 with a 5.6 CAY

6. Beathard in 2017 with a 5.6 CAY

7. Garoppolo in 2019 with a 5.4 CAY

8. Beathard in 2018 with a 5 CAY

9. Garoppolo in 2020 with a 3.9 CAY

Air Yards to the Sticks (per attempt)

1. Garoppolo in 2017 with a +0.4 AYTS

2. Ryan in 2016 with a -0.2 AYTS

3. Hoyer in 2017 with a -1.1 AYTS

4. Mullens in 2018 with a -1.4 AYTS

5. Beathard in 2017 with a -2.2 AYTS

6. Beathard in 2018 with a -2.3 AYTS

7. Garoppolo in 2019 with a -2.5 AYTS

8. Mullens in 2020 with a -2.5 AYTS

9. Garoppolo in 2020 with a -2.5 AYTS

All one needs to do is look at these numbers. These are the best evaluators of downfield passing: intended air yards per attempt, completed air yards per attempt and air yards to the sticks (positive means past the sticks, negative means behind).

All of these players worked in the Shanahan offense.

Garoppolo in 2019 and 2020 is two of the bottom three in all three of these statistics. And you can see: this wasn’t the Garoppolo we extended in 2017. All you have to do is take a glance at the top: Garoppolo in 2017 is there. Let’s be clear: 2017 Garoppolo may look the same, his playstyle - or at least the numbers, tell a different story.

Sure, the running game was still #2 in the league last season and was outstanding. How sustainable is that? Especially with defenses becoming more and more used to the outside zone that Kyle Shanahan employs, spreading across the NFL - and especially with defenses adjusting to Jimmy Garoppolo.

Limitations. Another limitation is quite literally what you can playcall. This is… egregious.

For The Niners @forthe9ers

Jimmy Garoppolo in the shotgun: - 5th in passer rating - 4th in completion % - 7th in on-target % Jimmy Garoppolo not in the shotgun: - 21st in passer rating - 11th in completion % - 27th in on-target % [2019] If the #49ers are staying with JG, they need him in the shotgun.

“Not in the shotgun” - means under-center. This offense’s bread and butter is under center. And as you can see, he’s just not that good under center. Shanahan has already incorporated a ton of shotgun in his offense to help Garoppolo, but I ask one question: what, really, makes people think Garoppolo is an incredible fit with Shanahan? The answer is that Shanahan crafted a perfect offense around Garoppolo to suit his strengths, even going as far as to acquire specific personnel that fit his exact archetype.

Mullens in 2018 averaged nearly 6 more non-play action attempts per game than Garoppolo in 2019, 5 more non-play action attempts that were more than 5 air yards, and nearly 2 more attempts to receivers lined outside instead of in the slot.

Limited. We know this offense loves play-action, but it also loves straight drop-backs from under center. On passes outside of play-action, Garoppolo sports a 93.9 adjusted passer rating - 19th in the league.

On specifically five-step and seven-step drops, Garoppolo has a passer rating of 85.8 (23rd in the league among qualifiers), and an adjusted passer rating of 93.3 (21st in the league among qualifiers). Limited.

Many 49ers fans believe that the OL is the key to unlocking Garoppolo. If that was true, he should perform relatively well when in a clean pocket, correct? When Garoppolo was in the pocket, and not under pressure - in 2019, he had an adjusted passer rating of 104.4. 20th in the league.

What about the opposite? Extending plays, under pressure, outside the pocket. The classic rollout under pressure and firing a dart for a first down… that we all loved seeing during the 2017 season. In 2019, Garoppolo didn’t even have enough pass attempts under pressure, and outside the pocket, to even show up on the leaderboard. Lowering the qualifier threshold, he had just 19 attempts all season, in 16 games. His adjusted passer rating was decent, at 13th. But his attempt number was tied for 31st with Mason Rudolph. Rudolph played 8 games. Garoppolo, again, played 16. Limited.

For a guy with the 19th most pass attempts, the 29th most deep attempts, and the 3rd highest (or easiest) expected completion percentage - a number that correlates with the completion that Next-Gen Stats would expect on each throw, based on the passes difficulty - Garoppolo has a pretty easy job. Just get it to the playmakers and let them do the work - Garoppolo had the highest percentage in the league of his passing yards coming from YAC, and correspondingly, the lowest from air yards (among qualifiers) - only 44.8% of his passing yards were air yards. That’s not a bad thing, but you have to be able to do other things once in a while.

He’s not being asked to throw tough throws, or downfield either. Drew Brees is most similar when it comes to the difficulty and air yards per throw. He’s been in decline over the past three seasons, but Brees was still very accurate in 2019. Brees also threw 27 TDs. Here’s the difference: Brees was attempting similar difficulty of passes as Garoppolo - but Brees only threw 4 interceptions.

Garoppolo threw 13 interceptions. You might say, well many of Garoppolo’s interceptions were off of a WRs hands. So how about adjusted interceptions instead, a stat that is defined as such:

Unlike the NFL's raw interception totals, these numbers account for plays when a defender drops a pass that he should have caught, or when a wide receiver makes a big play to turn what should have been a turnover into an incompletion instead. On the other hand, sometimes quarterbacks are charged with interceptions that aren't really their fault -- passes that bounce off a receiver's hands and straight to a defender -- or interceptions that don't matter, like Hail Mary passes.

Garoppolo threw 17 adjusted interceptions for an adjusted interception rate of 3.6%. Brees threw 10 adjusted interceptions for an adjusted interception rate of 2.7%. That’s a big difference.

Brees was ranked 35th in dangerous plays, 25th in interceptable passes, and 12th in money throws in 2019. Garoppolo was ranked 7th in dangerous plays, 7th in interceptable passes, and 22nd in money throws in 2019.

That relationship is terrible - the relationship between difficulty of throw and turnovers. It should not be that high. And let’s be clear, Garoppolo’s interceptions aren’t him missing throws, or his arm not being strong enough - it’s him being blind to a safety or LB streaking, or throwing an out-route late. These are fixable. But it’s been 6 years in the NFL and he hasn’t fixed it. It’s possible he still can given his lack of experience. But is it likely? Who knows.

This is the most QB-friendly offense in the NFL. High amount of play-action, easy passes. It inflates numbers. All one needs as proof is this:

Nick Mullens averages the most passing yards per game, in 49ers history.

I’m not the only one with this view. In fact, it’s almost a universally accepted view, outside of 49ers land. Check this excerpt from a fantastic breakdown done by USA Today’s Steven Ruiz:

Before we dive into those numbers, I have a question: When you think of an offense that is designed to shelter the quarterback, what kind of plays come to mind?

Here’s my list:

• A whole lotta play-action, especially when throwing downfield.

• Short passes around the line of scrimmage that lead to more yards after the catch.

• Play designs that get the quarterback out of the pocket and provide him with a clearer view of the field.

• More passes to tight ends, slot receivers and running backs over the middle and fewer throws to receivers outside of the numbers.

Welp, I pretty much just described the 49ers offense in 2019. Some stats, via Sports Info Solutions…

• No quarterback threw play-action passes at a higher rate (31 percent of his passes), while about 66% of Garoppolo’s total Expected Points Added this season came on play-action attempts.

• Among quarterbacks who logged at least 10 starts, Garoppolo finished last in non-play-action attempts that traveled further than five yards downfield.

• 85% of his EPA on completed passes came AFTER the catch. Only three starting quarterbacks — Kyler Murray, Kyle Allen and Jacoby Brissett — had a higher percentage.

• Nearly 40% of Garoppolo’s passing EPA came on designed rollouts. Only Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff had higher percentages.

• On 5- and 7-step drops without play-action, Garoppolo averaged -0.52 EPA per attempt, which ranked dead last among full-time starters. His success rate of 31.5% also ranked at the bottom of the league.

• Garoppolo ranked 25th in the league with 94 attempts to receivers lined up out wide and produced a total EPA of -11.8. Among starters, only Mitchell Trubisky produced a lower number but the Bears QB did have a higher success rate.

• Meanwhile, Garoppolo led the league in EPA on throws to players lined up in the slot, at tight end or in the backfield.

Advanced statistics are not kind to Jimmy Garoppolo. But if there’s one saving grace, it is Garoppolo’s general accuracy and ability to complete passes. He had the 5th highest completion percentage, compared to the 3rd highest expected completion percentage. His CPOE (completion percentage over expected) was 1.7%, which was ranked 9th in the league. That’s great. He was top three in catchable percentage and on target percentage in 2019 among qualifiers.

He’s incredibly accurate in the short area of the field, and on three-step drops. He’s great as a bootleg/designed rollout player, and he’s very good on 3rd down. Or is he?

Garoppolo had the highest 3rd down conversion and had the highest completion percentage on 3rd down in 2019. His adjusted passer rating on 3rd down in 2019 was ranked 15th.

However, there’s a hidden positive. When you increase this query to 3rd down and 5 or more yards to go, Garoppolo keeps his completion percentage high (2nd best), while also sporting a top 10 adjusted passer rating. 3rd down and 10 or more yards to go? Garoppolo has the highest completion in the league and has the 13th highest adjusted passer rating.

Although his conversion percentage when passing on 3rd down is elite, it is again a question of how much is it is him?

On 3rd down, according to Sharp Football Stats, Garoppolo’s average first down rate when passing was 45%, tied with Lamar Jackson in 2019 for 1st in the league. They also measured how many passes Garoppolo threw short of the sticks (in terms of air yards). That percentage was 65%, 30th in the league among qualifiers - only Tom Brady and Joe Flacco were lower.

We already went through air yards to the sticks, but to reiterate, Garoppolo on average attempted passes that were -2.5 yards to the sticks (negative) - 2nd worst in the league.

His short accuracy is elite, there is no doubt - but there are even question marks with this. Garoppolo threw the 4th most screen passes in the league in 2019. His completion percentage on those was 80% - sounds good right? That’s tied for 31st among qualifiers. The players above him: Jared Goff (tied), Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield all had 3.3% or higher completions, with Rodgers and Goff above 90%. Garoppolo’s adjusted/independent passer rating on these screen throws was 22nd among qualifiers.

Garoppolo on passes that were ten or less air yards completed 74.1%, which is #8 in the league - great. His adjusted passer rating on those throws: 16th in the league.

These discrepancies between completion percentage and passer rating - what does that mean? I’d say it confirms the belief that efficiency isn’t only how many passes you complete. It’s what type of passes you complete.

Garoppolo had the 4th highest completion percentage under pressure. Great! His adjusted passer rating on those throws: 14th in the league. Garoppolo’s TD% under pressure was 4.3%. His INT%? 4.3%. He threw TDs as much as INTs when under pressure. His sack percentage when under pressure was ranked 7th highest in the league - he’s not able to escape or avoid pressure as much as other QBs.

PFF supports this evaluation:

-45.8 difference in PFF passing grade when pressured, 30% pressure rate

Garoppolo is the first of two quarterbacks to end this list who saw massive splits when kept clean compared to when under pressure, yet faced pressure at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. A time to throw of 2.58 seconds (fourth-lowest in the NFL) had something to do with that. The problem for Garoppolo wasn’t necessarily efficiency when pressure did get home; it was the big mistakes he made.

His 7.3 yards per pressured pass attempt ranked seventh among all quarterbacks, but his 12 turnover-worthy plays on only 174 pressured dropbacks ranked in the bottom 10 in the NFL. Cleaning up some of those mistakes is the next step in his progression as the team’s franchise quarterback. 

Clutch Factor

What about the clutch factor?

Garoppolo was great - he was tied for 1st in 4th quarter comebacks and tied for 2nd in game-winning drives. The stats back it up, although they don’t reflect him being that good - in the 4th and overtime, Garoppolo had the 10th highest completion percentage, and the 16th highest adjusted passer rating. Decent.

What about when it’s the 4th quarter or overtime, and it’s a close game: within 7 points, either way (down or up) - Garoppolo has the 5th highest completion and the 11th highest adjusted passer rating. He can come back - even if it’s not all him. The Super Bowl was a disaster (he had a 2.8 passer rating in the 4th quarter of the SB) - but he’s been pretty good outside of that in his career.

Rollouts, Play-Action, and Bootlegs

One place where Garoppolo absolutely shines is in designed rollouts - as seen earlier. He had the highest adjusted passer rating and highest completion percentage on designed rollouts in 2019 - but the 49ers didn’t call that play nearly enough. This offense has already been shifted to the max to accommodate Garoppolo - unless the 49ers want to move to a complete shotgun offense, it is what it is.

On pure play-action throws, Garoppolo was pretty average. Despite having the 5th most attempts off play action, he had the 22nd highest completion percentage and 16th highest adjusted passer rating.

However, on bootleg throws, Garoppolo was also outstanding - with the 5th highest completion, and tied for the highest adjusted/independent passer rating in the NFL.

Results

QB wins aren’t exactly a good statistic. There’s no statistic measuring how much a QB has in the success of in his team, and as you can see on the top - it doesn’t seem to be Garoppolo as much as other parts of that Super Bowl roster.

But it’s hard to argue with results. He’s doing something right.

Top 10 in:

• Yards per attempt

• Completion percentage

• Adjusted yards per attempt

• TD%

• 4th quarter comebacks

• Game-winning drives

• Passer rating

• 3rd down conversion percentage

And the only QB to be top 5 in yards per attempt, TDs and completion percentage. It’s hard to argue with results.

He gets the job done. It’s easy to move on from him at the moment, but do we really want to? You mess up on the replacement and you could be back in QB purgatory. And even though Garoppolo might just be an average QB, that’s still hard to find.

So I ask this. When the statistics are clear and support these points:

• Kyle Shanahan has altered his offense, a lot, to accommodate Garoppolo.

• This is the easiest or one of the easiest offenses to play in.

• Garoppolo is a shotgun QB that works in an under-center offense.

• You are limited in your playcalls. Easy, one-read throws over any others.

• The limitations are making it harder to run the ball (speaks to how good the run game is, that it is so effective over the most stacked boxes in the league).

• He’s got some positives, but a lot of negatives that don’t show up in traditional box scores.

I’ve got one question: does he not represent the definition of a… (bad word incoming) system QB? The most similar QBs I kept finding next to Garoppolo in 2019 were: Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, Mitch Trubisky. It’s not an amazing list.

So from the perspective of one that is in favor of moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason:

• He’s injury-prone. Are we really going to risk the fourth season of contention in a window that can close very quickly, on a QB who’s already cost us two of those seasons.

• He costs too much and is too easy to cut with our cap scenario.

• We have a high 1st round pick in the most QB-talented draft in two decades at minimum.

• We have a ready-made team for a rookie QB.

• He’s not even that good to warrant keeping him at his salary, especially considering he was not asked to do much, was in the most QB-friendly and stat-inflating offense in the league, and still limited the offense and was just above average.

• A lot of QBs can do what he does. The average, #15 to #25 range starting QB is also able to throw the shortest and easiest passes in the league and let his WRs do all the work, while throwing a disproportionate amount of interceptions to touchdowns.

• His best season came with the best team in the league outside of the Chiefs. What happens when that talent is no longer there?

From the perspective on one in favor of sticking with Garoppolo:

• He’s proven. We know what he is. We know we can win with him.

• The last time he was fully healthy and played with a good team, he was pretty good.

• He’s still only around 29 years old. He’s got some room for growth - but it’s unlikely based on precedent.

• His salary is not that bad, and the Salary Cap is projected to be around 185M, not 175M.

• What’s the plan to replace him?

My point is - it’s not up to me, or you, or any other random 49ers fan to determine what the plan is to replace Garoppolo. We don’t know. But what we can evaluate is what type of QB Garoppolo is. And if one word comes to my mind then any others, it’s “limited”. What word comes to mind for you?

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