Evaluation Period: Tarvarius Moore, Colton McKivitz, and more. + Sounding the alarm on Javon Kinlaw - Is it time to worry?
With no hope remaining for this season, the 49ers look to the future - but that does not mean this season is a wash. This season will be an important evaluation period.
(Santa Clara) - Fresh off a blowout loss to the Packers, expectations for this season, the so-called Revenge Tour, have fallen short. With a massive list of 49ers players unavailable, and no light at the end of the injury tunnel - outlook is bleak for this season. For Warriors fans, a sense of deja vu has fallen upon us. The Warriors:
Went to the championship and lost.
Lost seemingly every player to injury.
Are now armed with a high draft pick and ready to reload and contend next season.
The 49ers have gotten to the first two steps. And it’s getting worse:
Kendrick Bourne was once again placed on the COVID19 list, after reportedly testing negative the past few days, then positive today. This is a weird saga - after the inital positive and following negatives, he was activated off, as popular belief was that it was a false positive. Then this happened. Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and Brandon Aiyuk need to be monitored closely.
The 49ers also signed Chris Finke to the practice squad, after waiving him last week. Interesting turn of events, as people thought that Finke was part of a leak to Steelers WR Chase Claypool which resulted in Finke getting cut.
Richard Sherman’s practice window has been opened - a sign of hope. Sherman and Verrett together will be fun to watch. He aims to return by this week, but the most likely outcome remains after the bye.
It sure does feel like the season is over. That does not mean it’s not important. Why? With a massive 49ers player pool hitting free agency next offseason, the 49ers need to look at replacements. The first option - in house replacements. Guys like Tarvarius Moore, JaMycal Hasty, Colton McKivitz, Richie James Jr, Kevin White, River Cracaft, the list goes on. The 49ers aren’t short on young, cheap, or unproven talent. But they need to realize who they should keep, and who they should not - because without that, mistakes will be made.
Look at Kwon Alexander. After receiving a mega-deal in 2019, Alexander struggled to both perform up to expectations and to even stay on the field, and after reconstruction and reported trade attempts in the offseason, the 49ers got Alexander out, sending him to the Saints for a 5th round pick and injured LB Kiko Alonso. The 49ers have shown precedent - they realized that Dre Greenlaw was the same level of player Alexander was, arguably better, and much cheaper. No brainer.
Similarly, this dilemma comes into play when discussing players like Emmanuel Moseley, Jimmie Ward, DJ Jones, and more. The 49ers have plenty of talent - for each position they have, there is a young guy waiting to take over.
The biggest example of this - Tarvarius Moore. 49ers fans know by now - Moore is a ballhawk, and arguably the best playmaker in our secondary. His speed and instincts far exceed Jimmie Ward’s in the same department. Last season, one could make the argument that the gap was not big enough to warrant Moore starting over Ward, and don’t forget that Moore is a bad tackler. Ward, on the other hand, is an elite tackler. That is not the case this season. Ward has arguably been the worst player in the secondary thus far - he has lost the burst, speed, and functional versatility that he had last season. His speed being gone has hurt his ability to switch from safety to slot CB, and it does not help that his tackling has also suffered.
Moore on the other hand, at least this season, has shown out. PFF grades aside (which Moore blows Ward out of the water in), Moore has not missed a single tackle all season, and that’s in addition to the plays that we see him make on the field. It’s no coincidence that when Moore got in the game, the 49ers DBs had their best game yet. It’s because of his speed. Moore’s range on the backend allows the 49ers DBs, like Jason Verrett, to be able to take risks and make plays on the ball - because they are confident that Moore can help them over the top.
This is exactly what made the Seattle 4-3 so successful during the Legion of Boom days, and it’s the same effect to this day. Ward does not afford DBs that luxury. And he did not do that last season either - the reason why it worked was because of the historic pass rush the 49ers had. That is not present this season, and it’s clear why Ward’s play has dropped. Worse, Ward’s contract is brutal, with cap hits upward of ten million starting next season. The 49ers both cannot afford to play Ward over Moore, and cannot afford to keep Ward over Moore. This is the exact dilemma the 49ers had with Kwon Alexander, and it’s clear what decision needs to be made. The argument that Ward affords Robert Saleh versatility is asinine - he has been horrendous in man coverage this season. Part of that is the scheme and DC’s fault, moving a player so much does not always equal better results. Instead, Marcell Harris, Jonathan Cyprien, and Brian Allen get starting nods before Moore does. It’s inexcusable. If those players were better fits, or playing better, sure it would make sense. They are not.
The offensive line is another massive problem this season - Mike McGlinchey has regressed yet again in his 3rd year. While he remains an elite, maybe best in the league, run blocker, McGlinchey’s pass protection prowess is limited at best. He simply does not have the functional technique, nor the strength to play as one - Shanahan wants athletic run blockers. Unfortunately, most of the time that results in a trade off of weaker pass protectors. McGlinchey is the poster child of this. And for a top 10 pick? Not worth the investment. He is not even the biggest problem. Daniel Brunskill has played just as bad, if not worse at RG, and although he is now playing at center, with Hroniss Grasu’s on and off injuries - it’s clear that last season was a mirage at best. The 49ers selected rookie guard Colton McKivitz this year. Rather than not affording him any playtime, even opting to start Tom Compton over him in a puzzling move - Compton is universally considered the worst OL on the 49ers - they must give him that opportunity. If McKivitz can prove that he deserves a longer look next season at guard, or maybe even center, it makes the 49ers job and John Lynch’s job a whole lot easier. They would not have to address that position, at least early or expensively, in free agency or the draft - allowing them to focus on more pressing needs.
Another player the 49ers have to afford an opportunity - Kentavius Street. With Dee Ford likely gone after this season, the 49ers need to find rotational DL that can help alleviate the pain - and Street is talented enough to be that. The 49ers drafted him in 2018, hoping he could be just that - a good, strong, rotational DL who can play at end or tackle. Instead, he’s averaged just 24 snaps a game, while the 49ers opt to sign guys like Ezekiel Ansah, or play guys like Kevin Givens and more. It’s no knock on Givens, but Street’s draft spot warrants some more playing time - and he cannot get ahold of it.
The 49ers have repeatedly shown that they can and have developed mid to late round talent. Fred Warner was drafted in the same draft, the same round, as Tarvarius Moore. Yet Warner, who is already considered the best LB in the league - got opportunity. Why has Moore not gotten the same, especially when his competitors are not playing well, and Moore is?
George Kittle - 5th round pick. Homegrown talent. How about Dre Greenlaw? Same thing. DJ Jones - same story. Even last week’s breakout, in Richie James - same thing. Give these guys a chance - it worked out with other guys, and there is not much to lose - but there is a lot to gain.
Javon Kinlaw: Alarm Bells
49ers fans did not expect Kinlaw to contribute much this season. He was one of the most raw prospects in the draft. Most believed that as the season progressed, Kinlaw would get better and better, and begin to show some of that talent that got him picked at #15 this year. He’s done exactly the opposite.
Player A: 28 tackles, 8 TFLs, 9 QB hits, 2 sacks, 16 pressures through Week 9 in his rookie season
Player B: 19 tackles, 0 TFLs, 1 QB hits, 0 sacks, 3 passes defensed, 6 pressures through Week 9 in his rookie season
Player B is Javon Kinlaw this season. Not very good, but sure, we can attribute it to a raw player with a lot to learn.
Player A is Solomon Thomas in his rookie season. Yeah. Not good. At all. Kinlaw plays in the interior, but Thomas also did while getting some snaps on the EDGE. While that may result in more pass rushing opportunity than Kinlaw, it does not explain the massive margin - both in TFLs, QB hits, sacks, and pressures. And interior DL are supposed to have more TFLs and run stops - yet Kinlaw is also lagging behind both in tackles and TFLs. 0 TFLs and 0 sacks says one thing, clearly - Kinlaw is not ready. He is currently not a disruptive player and has not flashed it either. While Brian Baldinger and Tony Romo may say that Kinlaw is going to be a beast - it’s clear that he has not shown much of that in Year 1. Outside of a handful of plays.
And here comes the real problem. Solomon Thomas, with higher expectations, was called a bust in Year 1 by most 49ers fans. Yet Kinlaw gets off - because he was raw? Players rarely develop pass-rush arsenals in the NFL. It takes time and experience. Most 49ers fans assumed he will be ready by year two or three. But there is a problem with that: expecting KInlaw, who came into the NFL with almost no pass-rush arsenal at all, to develop an entire repertoire in… two years? Unreasonable and impossible. If it was this easy, physically gifted prospects like Robert Nkemdiche would do it all the time. Kinlaw came out of college with some of the same knocks that Thomas had - underdeveloped technique, won in college using brute force, and no pass-rush plan. Thomas has been with the 49ers for 4 years - it went nowhere, sadly.
Javon Kinlaw is nowhere near a bust. But expectations need to be tempered - he is not going to be a big contributor for a while, certainly not this or next season. Year 3 is where you make a complete evaluation on Kinlaw. Til then, stay patient. But as mentioned - alarm bells are ringing, and a sense of familiarity comes with it.
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Last year I thought we had a couple of weaknesses. We signed all our starts except Buck and Sanders. We now have weaknesses all over the shop. It's somewhat unfathomable how much the world has crashed around us.
I didn't like the Kinlaw pick just as the Solly pick, same issues and worse Lynch even said they didn't really want him it was Koureck. Screams the Joe Williams problem and early day noise of our FO undermining scouts. I don't think we're approaching the top end of the draft correctly, at all. Mid-late rnd picks are fine but we're wasting potential talent with these 1st rnd picks failing (hopefully Aiyuk will break the mold).
What are your thoughts on Armstead? I think he's been a ghost and without Bosa taking attention away at edge, Armstead just isn't scary enough to free up Kinlaw.
I think we could easily cut 20 players this year and not get worse (well, we're pretty much down 20 players now anyway)
I think Kinlaw is fine. Thomas had Buckner beside him, while Kinlaw is expected to replace Buckner. People cut Thomas some slack for arriving at Camp late, but Kinlaw had no camp/preseason at all. Maybe deduct his first 4 games from the tally for preseason and redo this assessment in week 13? The comparisons are even less fair than justifying Armstead’s shitty drop off in form for the injuries around him. He’s enough of a vet to do WAY better. Just yesterday there was an article on how Buckner had massively elevated the Colts D-line. Kinlaw doesn’t have that help. And he’s lost what would have been his greatest supports in Bosa, Ford and Thomas—and Armstead is playing like his mother!
In fact, I’m so happy with Kinlaw, I think I might buy his jersey! 🙌