Live Roster Cut Tracker: Day 2 - 2021 Offseason: Cap Hell + Week 6 Preview: Los Angeles Rams

I don't know how Paraag and Lynch plan to navigate next year in cap space, but I want to see them try.

San Francisco 49ers/YouTube

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The unexpected off-day has hit, and it feels like the calm before the storm of roster cuts that we are going to see. The decisions have already been made: by canceling Friday’s practice, Shanahan and Lynch effectively admitted they don’t need an extra day to evaluate the roster. Whether that is good, or bad, remains to be seen. As mentioned yesterday, Fred Warner’s girlfriend is currently sick, which one could only assume means Warner is either COVID-19 positive, or he came in contact with her and is quarantining. NFL protocols require Warner to pass three tests in a row, and from what I understand, if he does not pass all three by Monday, his status for Week 1 could be in doubt. The process is a little weirder for players already on the COVID-19 list, but we will see.

Roster Tracker: Day 2 - Updated throughout the day

• Tavon Austin -> IR, knee injury, out for the season

• Richie James Jr. -> active roster

• Jamar Taylor -> released

• Jonathan Kongbo -> released, through injury settlement off IR

Clowney Watch

Another interesting tidbit from yesterday: Jadeveon Clowney is now being pursued by the Saints, Titans, Seahawks, and “monitored” by the Jaguars. Why the Jaguars are even involved, no idea, but the other three make complete sense. The Saints are already in cap hell, so I have no idea how they plan to fit a 1 year, $10,000,000 deal on the books, especially with the Kamara extension looming. Leaks indicate they have asked other players to take pay cuts to fit Clowney, and they are going all out on the pursuit; they have sent a representative to Clowney’s home in Houston to pitch New Orleans, and players from both the Titans and Saints have messaged him.

The problem: If the leaks are true that Clowney will sign for $10,000,000, Seattle’s offer is by far the best at 1 year, $12,000,000. With the sheer amount of leaks that came out yesterday alone, to national reporters and beat reporters, this smells like a massive leveraging move by Clowney and his agents. Clowney likely wants more from Seattle, and is threatening to sign with the Saints or Titans as leveraging.

Dianna Russini @diannaESPN

The New Orleans Saints are all in on landing Jadeveon Clowney. Sources tell me they are sending a member of their coaching staff to Houston, where Clowney lives to meet and discuss why New Orleans is the best spot.

Jim Wyatt @jwyattsports

.@Titans HC Mike Vrabel on Jadeveon Clowney: We have an offer out, and we've been in contact with him and his agent. "That's all I can report"

Around the NFL

• Raiders cut Damarious Randall. That just speaks volumes about their confidence in the 2nd year safety Jonathan Abram.

• Browns sign OT Brady Iello. UDFA out of Oregon, not much about him.

• WFT cut Adrian Peterson. The 35 year old former MVP now hits unrestricted free agency. Teams have already shown interest.

• Cowboys cut Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The former Packers standout has bounced around from team to team, a lot of good safeties on the market now. Randall, Ha Ha, Earl.

• Buccaneers cut Dare Ogunbowale and kicker Matt Gay today. Two tough cuts, but unsurprising. Ogunbowale is a talented RB and a special teams ace, but with Leonard Fournette entering the RB room the writing was on the wall.

• Reports out of Houston indicate they want to give DeShaun Watson an extension that looks more like Aaron Rodgers, or Russell Wilson. Still a ton of money, not Patrick Mahomes money, which makes sense. Watson is great but still is injury-prone and has turnover issues, so a contract like Mahomes would make no sense.

• Updates: The Bengals are sending LB Austin Calitro to the Broncos for DL Christian Covington. Expect a lot more moves as Saturday gets closer. Broncos also released long-time starter Todd Davis at LB. Davis would be a solid depth piece for any team.

• The Cardinals are releasing last year’s 4th round pick, Hakeem Butler. There were a lot of Butler fans pre-draft last season, he is raw but talented. Released due to hand injury.

• The Rams have made a boatload of releases over the past few hours.

In 49ers news:

• Tom Compton’s contract was reconstructed so that he is now being paid 1.05M. Smart move by Lynch, as Compton was severely outplayed by nearly every OL during camp. Brunskill will start.

• Jason Verrett has been confirmed to have sustained a hamstring injury. A tough break for the talented former Charger, he was competing for a starting spot. The injury timetable has not been disclosed.

• Robert Saleh, on that same note, admitted that the 49ers still have not decided who will start opposite Richard Sherman at CB, Week 1. Go with the safe pick, give the guy who earned it a 2nd chance. Moseley.

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Cap Hell: A Course of Action

I don’t want to be the one to raise the alarm, or anything. But seriously, the salary cap situation next year is terrifying. Spotrac has the 49ers at exactly… $289,276. Yeah. That is brutal. Even adjusting for 2020 Cap rollover, currently at about $8 million, that is still terrible. Especially when considering just how much talent the 49ers are set to lose:

• Trent Williams

• Richard Sherman

• Jaquiski Tartt

• Solomon Thomas

• Kyle Juszczyk

• Jerick McKinnon

• Jason Verrett

• Ahkello Witherspoon

• Trent Taylor

• DJ Jones

• Emmanuel Moseley

• Nick Mullens

• Tevin Coleman

Do I need to go on? This is terrifying for a couple of reasons. Losing Williams, maybe the best OT in the league, and Sherman, still a top 10 corner in the league would be an absolute disaster. I’m not even looking at the other players yet. How are the 49ers supposed to navigate what this pandemic has brought? Because of COVID-19, the 2021 salary cap was reduced from around $215 million, to $175 million. The 49ers lost almost $40 million in cap space from that alone. A plan:

Determine expendable players: of that list, Verrett, is the 1st one that we would likely not need long term. One of Witherspoon or Moseley would need to be kept. Coleman is expendable.

Strictly talking next season, the biggest issues with our salary table:

• Dee Ford with a $17.6 million cap hit

• Kwon Alexander with a $16.5 million cap hit

• Weston Richburg with $11.4 million cap hit

All three of these players are good players, no doubt, but to be brutally honest, have not played up to the value of their contract. So how would this plan work:

Trades:

• Trading Dee Ford before June 1st, 2021, would clear a massive $12,800,000 in cap space. Trading Ford for a mid round draft pick would be ideal, as that money gained would then directly go towards Trent Williams.

• Reconstructing Kwon Alexander’s contract would clear 9.3 million off the books, and Alexander would only be taking about a $1,500,000 pay cut.

• Reconstructing Weston Richburg’s contract would clear about 5.2 million off the cap, and he would only be taking a $1 million pay cut.

Right off the bat, making those three moves now gives the 49ers about $28 million to work with in salary cap space.

Ford’s replacement would likely be an edge-rusher in the draft, some candidates include:

• Quincy Roche, DE, Florida - speedy edge rusher with an elite first step and with room to grow, Roche is projected to go in the 2nd to 4th round.

• Carlos Basham Jr, DE, Wake Forest - the best of the two, Basham has size, quickness, and production - he can go late 1st.

Extending Sherman and Williams would render the 49ers with almost no cap space left even after making the moves above. Backloading and messing with guaranteed money would allow the 49ers to likely keep DJ Jones, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Solomon Thomas. I have complete faith that Juszczyk will resign and for less as well. Trent Taylor as well. Outside of Jones, all of these guys will be cheap and easy to fit in.

But that means Jaquiski Tartt, Nick Mullens, Emmanuel Moseley, Coleman, Verrett, McKinnon, etc. will all likely walk. Maximizing value is key. Trading Coleman at this second, right now, 2020, would give us a fresh $4 million to work with this year while we also recoup whatever value left from him. The same goes for Mullens, who likely could fetch up to a 3rd rounder if the 49ers are lucky. Tartt is the biggest loss, but fortunately the draft looks to be strong at safety, with a candidate in the early rounds:

• Hamsah Nasirildeen, SS, FSU - He is 6 foot 4 inches, 212 pounds, and he can run for a safety. He’s a consistent tackler and is a fumble-forcing machine, and while his man coverage skills need work, he can handle TEs and or RBs. Really good fit.

I actually have a full mock draft coming on Monday.. so stay tuned for that.

Trading Mullens this season would also recoup the most value, because his asking price will be too high. Beathard is not what I want at backup QB, but if it is for 1 season, live with it. Mullens, as mentioned earlier, fetching a mid round pick would garner much more value than keeping him this season and letting him go.

The conclusion however is: cap management is key, and the 49ers have gotten into a mess of it. Paraag will work his magic, but mistakes like giving Kwon Alexander so much money, giving Dee Ford that same amount, extending Ward over Tartt, giving Richburg so much money - that’s what causes decisions like DeForest Buckner being traded to happen, and that is what will likely result in the 49ers losing a massive part of their team next year. Time and time again, do the 49ers overpay or overdraft players, and while I’m not doubting their talent evaluation ability, I am criticizing their ability to value said players. There is still plenty of time to fix it, but right now, the lack of proper value has lead to next offseason which is going to be brutal.

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Week 5 Preview: Los Angeles Rams

I’ve already reviewed the Rams offseason, but in case you missed it - The Rams are no longer the Super Bowl contender they were two years ago. They will be good, not playoff worthy, especially in the toughest division in the league. Two of the best defensive players in the league, in Donald and Ramsey, along with two great wideouts, a young QB, and a young RB - it’s simply not enough. In any other division they could challenge for a wild-card, not this one.

Their future is bleak. They traded most of their picks away in the Jalen Ramsey acquisition, and while Van Jefferson and Cam Akers are exciting, this team is entering a rebuild phase, not a reload phase.

The Matchup

Richburg is not expected to return by Week 5, meaning Aaron Donald will likely have a field day against the 49ers interior line. The quick passing game will be of utmost importance, in addition to the play-action play calling. Deebo and Aiyuk will need to have big games against the Rams secondary, and I expect Jalen Ramsey to take on Kittle. Ramsey is one of the few players who is actually physical enough and fast enough to guard Kittle one-on-one. Make no mistake, the Rams pass-rush will give Jimmy a tough day, so the YAC monsters will have to step up. Run game will likely not work either.

Defensively, this is an easy win. Goff is not built to withstand pressure or hits, and while Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods might have a couple big plays, I don’t see anything coming from this Rams offense. Their OL has severely declined, and Goff is going to be running for his life from Bosa and Ford all game.

There is not much to be said really.

X-Factor: Jimmy Garoppolo

As is the case with any divisional game, the QB will always have to play good. The interior pressure from the Rams will prevent any pocket presence or interior run-game, so Garoppolo is going to be using his legs a lot, and that quick release will come in very handy. Quick decisions and accurate throws outside the pocket will win this game.

Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers - 31
Los Angeles Rams - 20

This game won’t be in doubt. The 49ers likely improve to 6-0, behind a big game from the defense. Divisional games will always be physical and hard-fought, but in these games depth is key. The 49ers depth is vastly superior to the Rams.

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Leave a like and comment to support us if you like the article and our content, or if you have criticism, or simply for discussion. Check out Part 1 and Part 2 of an in-depth look into Jimmy Garoppolo, where we look at what his issues were last season. Take a look at our latest roster projection, and a in-depth look into the Kittle vs. Kelce argument.

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