2020 Roster Projection and Evaluation: Who will be the unexpected hero for the 49ers this season?
FanPost Author: SportyMiner + Roster Projection: Riqonator -- Evaluating the roster, looking at some candidates to surprise, and a full roster projection including practice squad.
San Francisco 49ers/YouTube
WARNING: BIG POST
We all have our favorite players, our favorite plays and favorite games of the season. For me, one of the things I enjoy the most is an underrated player balling out during the season and becoming a cult (or real) hero for the team. A couple years ago, this was Kittle letting us know he might be HOF-level TE rather than a 5th round blocking specialist. Another example: Nick Mullens, showing the "noodle-armed" UDFA QB has good accuracy, great processing of the playbook, football IQ, and work ethic. As a 3rd string UDFA QB, he took over in a season of turmoil, and played very well for a young QB in one of the most complex offenses the NFL has ever seen.
Last year, two names fit the description of unexpected hero quite well. Witherspoon was meant to be our CB of the future, but he once again faltered through inconsistency, lack of physicality, and loss of confidence. Enter Emmanuel Moseley, who lacked any elite traits, and was assumed to be at best a depth player, coming in as a rookie UDFA. Jason Verrett’s injury and bad play last season thrust Moseley into the spotlight, where he took the bull by its horns and showed out, playing outstanding while being targeted often, considering he was playing across the best CB in the past decade. He's more than a solid option at #2 corner, a very instinctive and aggressive player who plays the ball, blows players up while tackling, and prevents big plays. Moseley is the favorite to win the #2 CB spot.
But the award goes to Dre Greenlaw, who was not expected to get much playing time and was less hyped than the other rookie/backup LB by some, in Azeez Al-Shair. Kwon Alexander gets injured and suddenly the former Razorback is forced to enter the game, and he takes the opportunity. Statistically, Greenlaw was the surest tackler on our team, putting up a gaudy 2.1% missed tackle rate, the best on the roster. His clutch stop against the Seattle Seahawks and Mr. Unlimited in Week 16 (not to forget his clutch interception in Week 11) was the biggest play all season, catapulting us to the Super Bowl with a 1st round bye and home field advantage.
But back to the point:
Who will be the unexpected hero of the Niners' 2020 season?
The Kittles, Bosas, and Warners of the world do not count. They are stars for the best team in the league, we expect them to be elite and the leaders on this team. We're looking for bottom of the roster or practice squad players who do not carry the expectation of being a game changer going into the season.
Special Thanks to SportyMiner for this article. The roster projections at the top of each section were done by me, the evaluations were done by SportyMiner, as well as any added commentary.
Offense:
Quarterback:
Starter:
Jimmy Garoppolo
Backups:
Nick Mullens
Practice Squad:
C.J. Beathard
Can it get more obvious? Nothing much to be said here. Beathard is a popular cut candidate, but chances are during the season Lynch gets a ton of calls for Mullens as injuries pile up. Beathard is not good by any measure, but he’s better than asking a QB to come off the street and become backup in this complex offense. Still would rather see someone else.
Running Backs:
Starters:
Raheem Mostert
Jerick McKinnon (3rd down)
Backups:
Tevin Coleman
Jeff Wilson Jr.
Practice Squad:
JaMychal Hasty
Unless Coleman gets traded, the committee at RB is set. I think McKinnon is going to shine, we're finally going to see Kyle unleash that part of his play book for a real pass catching running back and it's going to be glorious. He's probably obvious of a player to be an unexpected hero though.
The biggest battle here is Wilson vs. Hasty. I like what Hasty has done in camp but I expect Kyle to go with Wilson's experience - he's a trusted back and that means a lot. Hasty will be on the PS, hopefully he won't get poached although he is talented enough to get attention. But if an injury occurs to one of the four during the season, which is likely at some point with the beating RBs take (especially in this offense), look out for Hasty. The former Baylor Bear has great speed and elusiveness, and although he is not as fast as another UDFA RB by the name of Matt Breida, he is very similar in playstyle.
Tight End and Fullback:
Starters:
George Kittle (TE)
Kyle Juszczyk (FB)
TE Backups:
Jordan Reed (TE)
Ross Dwelley (TE)
Charlie Woerner (TE/FB)
Kyle Nelson (emergency TE)
Practice Squad:
Chase Harrell (TE)
Josh Hokit (FB/TE)
Kittle and Juszczyk are the best players in their position in the entire NFL. Let that sink in a bit. The BEST. At TWO positions. That's very hard to pull off. It's even harder to be a backup to these guys. Reed is playing really well in camp and I think he's a lock at TE2, particularly in passing plays, but Reed when healthy could start on almost every other team. He's supplanted Dwelley, who was serviceable last year and can still improve to be a capable backup in the future. However, we have no true backup to Juice and Dwelley clearly wasn't the answer. Kittle could, but then you stunt Kittle, which isn't what you want to do with your star player.
As the 2020 draft rolled closer, myself and a few others were screaming for a backup to Juszczyk, someone who is more than key to this offense, and realistically a backup TE too. John Lynch obliged, drafting Georgie TE Charlie Woerner in the 5th round. He’s more of a TE who can play FB, but he is a very talented blocker, with Kittle going as far as to say that Charlie is a better blocker than Kittle when he came in the league. His blocking makes him a candidate to get a lot of snaps ahead of Dwelley and Reed on run downs at the very least. He also played WR in high school, and although he may be rusty and not used to a complex route tree, I think throughout the season he will progress quickly as a pass catcher as he adjusts to the NFL game speed. He already has shown big improvements, beating Fred Warner during training camp. We're desperate for a backup, and Woerner kills two birds with one stone, as the best blocker not named George Kittle here, and a guy who has soft hands and can grow in the passing game. If god forbid either sustain a serious injury, Woerner will have a chance to be the surprise player this season. I think he's going to be very valuable.
Offensive Line:
Starters:
RT: Mike McGlinchey
RG: Daniel Brunskill
C: Weston Richburg (IR, designated to return mid-season)
LG: Laken Tomlinson
LT: Trent Williams
Backups:
Justin Skule (T/G)
Colton McKivitz (T/G)
Ben Garland (G/C)
Tom Compton (all)
Practice Squad:
Hroniss Grasu (C)
Jaryd Jones-Smith (T)
Quickly becoming a weakness of this team, the interior depth on this squad is absolutely abysmal. Compton was supposed to be a starter but he has been so bad that McKivitz, the rookie 5th round pick out of West Virginia has thoroughly outplayed him thus far. Brunskill and Skule already outperformed last year spotting McGlinchey and Staley when injured. Brunskill in particular stood out and he's the favorite for the RG. However, with both Richburg and Garland injured, he might be our best backup center on the team. Grasu in less than a week has already distanced himself from Compton, and while Compton likely makes the team due to experience, if he starts it would be a disaster. I’d like to see them give Skule some run inside.
There aren’t any surprises here being completely honest. McKivitz could surprise, but it’s hard to standout as a lineman, usually no news is good news here. It’s going to be difficult to be a hero here, but very easily a villain if it all goes wrong.
Wide Receiver:
Starters:
WR1: Deebo Samuel (PUP)
WR2: Brandon Aiyuk
SLOT: Trent Taylor
Backups:
Kendrick Bourne
Dante Pettis
Tavon Austin
Jauan Jennings
Practice Squad:
Shawn Poindexter
J.J. Nelson
Kevin White
IR:
Richie James Jr.
Jalen Hurd
James is out and I don't think he gets his place back. Pettis is a dark horse simply due to how much he was put down by Shanahan and fans alike. His resurgence this offseason, albeit with some negatives, has quite likely saved his career on the 49ers, and he is currently the favorite to win the punt returner job. His added versatility in the slot makes him a virtual lock to get a roster spot.
Austin and Nelson, one will make the team, but I don't see them outperforming expectations, we know who they are. Nelson’s injury and the mere fact that Austin has outplayed him as well and has added versatility at RB, and at KR/PR makes Austin a lock. Poindexter is doing ok but not shining and not on the level of Jauan Jennings so far. So, step on down Jennings. You might be looking at this and saying, 7 WRS!!!! It sounds outlandish, but there are a couple things: Deebo’s and Aiyuk’s injuries make it necessary to carry 7 WRs, especially considering how injury prone this team is. If necessary, the 49ers could always send someone down.
At this point, I think it's unfair to put Jennings as a potential hero because so many have high expectations for the 7th rounder. I think he will be great in the 2nd half of the season and I would put him on top of the list here, but he's already on the pedestal, which makes it harder to excel. However, I truly believe he will make a few kittle-esque receiving plays this year, possibly in a big game or two, that will catapult his status with the fanbase. Afterall, it's big plays like Greenlaws stop inches from the line that become iconic. Jennings was considered a 1st round talent at one point, and his work ethic, YAC ability, and physicality already has made him a favorite with Shanahan.
Defense:
Defensive Line
Starters:
LDE: Nick Bosa
DT: Solomon Thomas, Arik Armstead (passing downs)
NT: DJ Jones
RDE: Arik Armstead, Dee Ford (passing downs)
Backups:
Javon Kinlaw (DT/NT)
Ronald Blair (DE) (PUP)
Kentavius Street (DE/DT)
Kerry Hyder (DE)
IR:
Jullian Taylor (DT)
Practice Squad:
Kevin Givens
Darrion Daniel
Dion Jordan
The Niners kept 13!! defensive lineman on their 53 man roster last season, so 11 is not a stretch of the imagination. There are a couple players not listed here that I will go to later. The biggest battle is between Darrion Daniels and Kevin Givens, who impressed last year albeit in limited snaps. Givens is surprisingly similar to DJ Jones, and could have a similar career trajectory, he’s currently the favorite to win the job over Darrion Daniels.
Thomas is not exactly ideal based on his history to start, but he has played very well during training camp while at the 3-tech. Kinlaw is still learning and is not ready to start, not to mention is nowhere near being ready to play on passing downs. Thomas likely shares snaps inside with Kinlaw for most of the season, but I also expect Armstead to get a lot of snaps there as well as they move Ford to that DE spot to get their four best on the field.
Ford's health and availability is questionable. Bosa is fundamental to the DL being our primary rusher and then there's Armstead, who's paid to be the best defender on the team so he needs to prove it. Armstead will also be moved inside throughout the year. So backup EDGE is where the opportunity will come, in terms of snaps. The best surprise candidate here is Kerry Hyder. Hyder has impressed in camp so far, getting a couple sacks and beating up on a few tackles. He's not in the same stratosphere Bosa or Ford, but he may just hold the DL rushing together if one or two of them get injuries. If Bosa or Ford go down, a guy like Hyder who has experience with Kocurek and is decent, can hold it together till they are back. Similar to Dre Greenlaw and what happened with Kwon Alexander last season, he makes one big play, they'll build statues! Fingers crossed for this guy.
Linebackers:
Starters:
WILL: Kwon Alexander
MLB: Fred Warner
SAM (non-nickel passing downs): Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford (passing downs)
Backups:
Mark Nzeocha (WILL)
Joe Walker (MLB)
Practice Squad:
Azeez Al-Shaair
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
Greenlaw will likely be relegated to a backup role, Shanahan and Saleh have both said that Warner and Kwon are firmly entrenched as starters. Greenlaw will see snaps, no doubt, but he is a superb backup at the moment. Nzeocha is below average as a defender but his true value comes as a special teams player, while Walker is an average inside linebacker, albeit limited. DFF has been a standout so far in training camp, thoroughly outplaying his primary competition in Evan Foster, the SS/LB hybrid, and Azeez Al-Shaair, but at the end of the day, it’s a 53-man roster and he will likely be a prime-practice squad candidate. DFF is good enough to get a roster spot, and if he does, or is promoted later on in the season, he fits the bill as a surprise player.
Cornerback:
Starters:
Richard Sherman
Emmanuel Moseley
K’Waun Williams (nickelback)
Backups:
Jason Verrett
Ahkello Witherspoon
Jamar Taylor
Jimmie Ward (emergency nickelback)
Practice Squad:
Tim Harris Jr.
Verrett, Witherspoon and Ward would all be expected to pick up the mantle if K’Waun Williams injury extends into the regular season. I expect Ward to be moved from FS to cover for Williams in the first half of the season if his injury extends into the regular season. Saleh likes to keep his best players on the field, he has stressed that time and time again. I'd love for Verrett to regain his form, even a Verrett at 75% would be a big deal. Saleh has given him a very good shot to win the starting spot in camp so far, so I expect him to get many snaps, even if Moseley as expected wins the job.
Looking at this roster and the bubble/edge of roster players, there are a couple candidates. The problem is, who's going to get the opportunity to play? The player would have to be able to play slot/inside CB, assuming that Williams injury is long-term, considering if not, Jimmie Ward would most likely be moved to slot CB. Ward is a top 10 FS in the league when healthy, and although he is no slouch at corner, I doubt that Saleh and his defense would want to move him. Jamar Taylor is the best bet. He's made many splash plays (a few misses too) in training camp, and been praised by Sherman (although to be fair, Witherspoon gets praise and look at him). He's bounced around from team to team, meaning the expectations for Taylor are low. Will he get playing time? Probably, especially with injuries being inevitable. But he is not the best option for the surprise player this season.
Taylor as mentioned before has exceeded expectations, he likely makes the roster as the DJ Reed replacement. The other cut is pretty obvious. Surprisingly, there are no other corners on the roster.
Safety:
Starters:
FS: Jimmie Ward
SS: Jaquiski Tartt
Backups:
Tarvarius Moore (FS)
Jonathan Cyprien (SS)
Practice Squad:
Evan Foster
Jared Mayden
The main competition here is between Mayden, Foster, and Cyprien at SS. FS is the most important position here and with Ward being emergency backup at NB, a big decision will be made at the last CB and S spot. Cyprien has been impressive so far and clearly has the experience to do well at the position, although he has lost a step being 30 and coming off injuries. I don't see him outplaying Ward or Moore however. Solid, not a star.
Between Foster and Mayden, so far Mayden has the upper-hand, although he's had more time in camp to show his ability off. The Alabama recruit was tipped to be the best UDFA signing for 49ers and some ranked him the best UDFA for the season. That's high praise, even if it is for a UDFA. I love Foster's aggressive play, he's rough and immovable, reminds me of a smaller version of the other Foster we once had patrolling at LB. However, for the scheme we run, I think Mayden has a real chance to make a name for himself and I can see him beating Harris to the backup spot. Mayden is a real contender here, if he can make the roster.
Special Teams:
Starters:
K: Robbie Gould
P: Mitch Wishnowsky
LS: Kyle Nelson
PR: Dante Pettis
KR: Tavon Austin
Gunners: Tarvarius Moore, Mark Nzeocha
No backups here to fit the bill, but I'm eager to see Mitch make some progress this year with more special punts and less returns. Looking forward to a hitstick from Mitch. His progress will be a boon for the offense and defense, the best teams always start with good field position. Pettis is the greatest college punt returner ever. No explanation needed, once he has fully adjusted to NFL speed, he will be great, and as 49ers fans, watching Austin when he was on the Rams, we all know firsthand the talent and explosiveness he brings at KR. I wish they would give an OL a chance at LS. It feels incredibly unnecessary to keep an entire roster spot for a long snapper. Give McKivitz, Garland, anyone a chance at LS, and I’m sure they could do just as well of a job.
So, recap, here are the most likely heroes for the 2020 season:
Jauan Jennings, WR
Charlie Woerner, TE/FB
Kerry Hyder Jr, DE
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, LB/S
Jared Mayden, S
Hyder Jr and Woerner are backing up superstars and so it will be hard for them to really shine as they'll never live up to who they're replacing. Nevertheless, Woerner is going to be a great addition, and Hyder will continue to grow to be a solid pass rusher.
Jared Mayden has a great chance to earn his stripes and get some snaps considering how injury-prone both our safeties are. As a SS he faces stiff competition against Cyprien who has played out of his mind thus far, but Mayden has all the physical tools and talent to make an impact if he gets snaps.
Flannigan-Fowles has a chance, but again, he has strong LBs in front of him. I can see him coming up with a few splash plays and he definitely has a chance of being noticed flying across the field at SAM/WILL. Is he the most likely though? No.
I think the trophy goes to Jennings. Opportunity? Yes, several injuries across the group already and the position is always at risk being tackled for a living. Pettis is having a great camp but that doesn't mean he's going to ball out - his weakness has been toughness and playing through tackles. Ironically, those are Jennings strengths. The Anquan Boldin comparison for Jennings? Not fair at all for a 7th round pick. There is a reason he went that low, his speed and route running are not NFL-level. But the tools he brings to the table elsewhere are. He'll smash you in the mouth to get a couple yards and none of our receivers offer that - we're relying on Kittle here. Shanahan is not shy and he will give Jennings a chance, but if Jennings can fulfill what Hurd was supposed to be, as the red-zone threat and physical WR blocker, he has the best chance to be that surprise player. jennings
Jennings, per my (SportyMiner) opinion, is not going to end his career as the best player out of these five (I'm backing Mayden for that title) or get the most snaps (that's probably Hyder in a rotational role) but I'm predicting he will have the biggest impact this season, similar to Greenlaw. Greenlaw got more snaps and played well, but his penchant for big plays is what made him the surprise player. That would fit Jennings best on this roster, he will get us out of our seat on Sundays and having many of us saying “I told you so”.
Disclaimer: This is a valid 53-man roster, due to Weston Richburg and some other players being placed on the IR, which does not count against the roster. The practice squad total is also 16, which is legal under the new CBA and COVID-19 measures.
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Prediction: On the 53 from the TE/FB pool (5): Kittle, Reed, Woerner, Juice, Hokit. Dwelley & Harrell to the Practice Squad. You heard it here.
Excellent write-up, SportyMiner & Riqonator!! Most of the Roster spots are realistic.
Now, going as per the Positions:
OL: Tom Compton brings nothing but experience and that, to me, is totally useless given how he has fared thus far in TC. Shades of Jordan Devey. Colton McKivitiz is ahead of the game, if Brunskill is playing Center. I've pretty much resigned myself to NOT seeing Richburg play for us and in that context want Brunskill to be developed as a Center
Skule is the swing Tackle and Compton could be the backup Guard. I wonder what happened to Ted Larsen whom we brought in for a workout?
TE/FB: Kittle, Reed, Woerner, Juice, Herrell. Might see Dwelley and Hoskit on the PS
WRs: I disagree on Jennings; he hasn't done enough and is a prime PS candidate. Aiyuk, Deebo, Taylor, Bourne, Pettis, Austin and maybe White (I'm really not sold out on him), if we go with 07 WRs. Though I could see Shanny going with higher TEs and lesser WRs
Poindexter and Jennings go straight to the PS
RBs: Jet, Coleman, Mostert and Wilson
Hasty is going to the PS