Breaking: Deebo Samuel placed on IR, Hroniss Grasu and Dontae Johnson are elevated to active roster + Dante Pettis: Stat Analysis
With Deebo Samuel confirmed to be out tomorrow, Dante Pettis will likely have to pick up the slack, especially if Brandon Aiyuk is also out + raining extensions across the NFL.
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Breaking: Deebo Samuel has been placed on IR with designation to return, his earliest return date will be Week 4.
Tough break for the talented sophomore WR - and that means Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, and Dante Pettis will need to pick up the slack. Scroll below for an analysis and breakdown of the impact of this move.
In less than 24 hours from the publication of this article, the mayor of Puntopolis, Mitch Wishnowsky, will kickoff the 49ers 2020-21 NFL Season. It’s been a long ride, but it’s here, and it’s a mixed bag of emotions. On one hand, game status is being threatened by California burning to the ground, being devastated by wildfires - and I’ve said time and time again, a 49ers game should be the last priority when people are losing their lives and livelihoods. But it’s hard to not get excited for something positive in a year chock-full of negatives - and seeing the 49ers compete should cheer a lot of people up. AQI has significantly gotten worse, hovering around 170 - the threshold for a game being delayed/cancelled is 200 - dangerously close. With that being said - the game is still scheduled to go on; the marine layer that the Bay Area benefits from has kept the AQI from deteriorating into unplayable territory.
Around The NFL
Alvin Kamara has signed an extension with the New Orleans Saints, worth $75M over 5 years - good value for both sides, Kamara is one of the best dual-threat RBs in the game when healthy, and losing him would have been a disaster for a Saints team, that by Drew Brees’ own words, has a window that is reducing, and fast.
Another star RB gets an extension: Dalvin Cook of the Vikings signed a 5 year contract, worth $63M - RBs since the McCaffrey extension have been getting a lot more money, and the effect is starting to show - Cook is super talented but again, needs to stay healthy and cannot fumble the ball as much. This is better value than the Kamara deal.
Cooper Kupp agreed to a 3 year, $48M dollar extension as well today - marking yet another big name signing an extension this season. The list of talent is astounding, especially in unknown circumstances in which salary cap situations are very shaky - how did the Rams structure this to work, I have no idea, but they seem to be doing a good job at the moment. Kupp had 1161 receiving yards and a whopping 10 TDs this past season.
Tired of extensions: how about a pay raise? Stephon Gilmore had his yearly salary increased to $15.5M from $10.5M before - still a bargain for the defensive player of the year.
Titans rookie 1st rounder Isaiah Wilson, the OT from Georgia, was arrested on a DUI - his status is unknown but he has had multiple off-field issues at Georgia and now the NFL.
Josh Norman was placed on IR with designation to return - Bills defense takes a hit.
Carousel of Injuries
49ers took a big hit a couple hours ago, with Deebo Samuel being placed on IR - the earliest he can return is Week 4. While it’s not a popular decision with Samuel being so close to returning, it is the correct decision - foot injuries are painful and very easy to reinjure, and 12 games of healthy Samuel is better than 15 games of 75% Deebo.
Jason Verrett was also downgraded to out, meaning that both Hroniss Grasu and Dontae Johnson, the two that were upgraded from the practice squad today, will have roles - Grasu is likely to start with Ben Garland still questionable with his injury. Interior OL has been a problem for many years with this 49ers team, dating further back than the Lynch days - you would hope they address it in the upcoming draft and or free agency, with Richburg not working out so far. Grasu is likely not going to play well - meaning Daniel Brunskill will have to step up.
The good news: as Eric Branch pointed out, Kevin White and Jauan Jennings not being promoted likely means Aiyuk will be ready to go tomorrow afternoon, which is a big relief for this 49ers team.
Dante Pettis: Pure Talent
By now, we have all heard the classic excuses for one Dante Pettis - he’s soft, he can’t contested catch, he doesn’t care, he has no work ethic - I’m here to tell you, it is not that - it’s a simple thing which almost every human will have to deal with - confidence. Now with Deebo Samuel out, and Brandon Aiyuk still questionable, Pettis will likely have his best shot since his rookie season to prove himself - we know the story: a disastrous sophomore offseason put him the dreaded “doghouse” with Shanahan, and although he has gotten out of it with his offseason this year, there are still questions.
But look at the stats:
Dante Pettis had 2 drops in 12 games his rookie season. He had 4 in 9 games and much less snaps this season. His drop rate was 4.4% his rookie season, it was a stupid 16.7% this season.
His air yards per target were halved from his rookie season to last season, his YAC per target went down by almost 75%.
The incredible thing: his catchable target rate this season went up compared to his rookie season - meaning he got easier catches than his rookie season yet dropped more and got less yards this season. Another stat that proves this: target accuracy, the lower it is the worse:
Pettis target accuracy in his rookie season was a terrible 2.7, meaning he did not get very good throws to catch. This season: 6.88.
His yards per route run this season: 0.85, unranked among the NFL.
His rookie season in the same stat: 2.25, 25th in the league.His true catch rate this season: 57.9%.
His true catch rate his rookie season: 81.8%.But by far the most damning, but also positive stat for Pettis:
Pettis in his rookie season: 2.38 yards of separation per route run, best in the entire league.
This season: 1.48 yards of separation per route run.
One does not just stop caring, or stop playing well, or become soft once year after playing lights out - it makes no sense logically and also statistically - the only way these stats can be explained is confidence: Dante Pettis lost his confidence. It’s the same problem with Ahkello Witherspoon, only Dante has gotten less chances - Dante Pettis can be the best route runner in the league: the question is, does he believe that he can? For those parroting the popular “he’s soft” argument, if so, why did Dante Pettis’ contested catch rate actually go up this season compared to his rookie season? These arguments statistically are disproven - but they remain popular.
Daily Links, Courtesy of Boats and Havoc
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I'd rather have Grasu at Center and Brunskill at RG with McKivitz backing up rather than Brunskill at Center and McKivitz (rooke) at RG and Compton (shudders) backing up at Guard spot. Grasu is a 3rd round pick and has had some experience. It's not as if he is a rookie stepping up to the plate AT Center without any pre-season games.