Advanced Stats: What is wrong with the team?
What exactly is wrong with the passing game, the running game, the EDGE rush, the secondary - why have the 49ers gone 2-3 in a stretch they should have gone 5-0 in?
(Santa Clara) - Let’s be clear. The 49ers have the toughest remaining schedule, by far, of any other team in the NFL. There are just two teams in the remaining 11 which are not projected to make, or at least compete for the playoffs: the Washington Football Team, and the Dallas Cowboys. This team is entering the toughest stretch they will likely ever face. And they are doing it without:
Nick Bosa
Dee Ford
Richard Sherman (for the short term)
And many, many more depth and rotational players. But the 49ers have not helped their case one bit, going 2-3 in a stretch, that at minimum they should have been 4-1 in. With such a schedule, you can’t drop the “gimme” games, and the 49ers dropped it: a total of three times against mediocre to flat out bad teams like the Eagles, Dolphins, and Cardinals.
49ers News
The 49ers claimed CB Parnell Motley off waivers from Tampa Bay’s practice squad. Reinforcements for a banged-up secondary.
Kevin White and Brian Allen have reverted back to the practice squad.
Kwon Alexander is expected to go on the short-term IR with a high ankle sprain suffered on Sunday.
Richard Sherman will not play.
Jimmy Garoppolo will start vs. the Rams. Kyle Shanahan has made it clear - if he does not perform, due to injury or just simply bad play, he will be benched.
The battle between Mullens and Beathard is still going, there has been no decision on that currently.
Emmanuel Moseley is also expected to play vs. the Rams.
The 49ers have finally experimented with playing Jimmie Ward at corner, and starting Tarvarius Moore at FS, which looks to be what happens on Sunday.
Robbie Gould has pledged to donate 500 dollars to a pediatric charity for every field goal he makes this season.
Around The NFL
The Jaguars released former 49ers pass rusher Cassius Marsh. Is there a reunion in the making?
The Titans traded LB Kamalei Correa and a conditional 7th rounder to the Jaguars for a 6th rounder.
Le’Veon Bell, who was released by the Jets a couple days back, has narrowed down the teams he is signing to the Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins. Ironically, all three are on the Jets schedule for the next three games.
So with that being said: it’s also been 5 games. Previously, the sample size was too little and too errant to evaluate properly, but after 5 games, one can statistically begin to form an image of what this 49ers team is. Long story short, it’s a mixed bag. But there is a lot more alarming stuff in this, than good stuff.
Running The Ball
By now, we all know one thing. Kyle Shanahan, loves, and I mean loves, to run the ball. A little too much. Last year, the 49ers had tremendous success running the ball, and on the surface, that does not seem to have changed this season, with the 49ers ranking #6 in DVOA with regards to the run game. This offensive line is better when run-blocking, Kyle Shanahan’s outside zone scheme is the most devastating in the league, and the misdirection, versatility, and flat out speed on this offense makes for a potent rushing attack. With the 49ers offense stalling these past few weeks, Kyle Shanahan needs to make a recommitment to the rushing attack, and get back to his roots.
But, there may be a reason the 49ers are trending to moving the ball through the air more than the ground. While Raheem Mostert is absolutely wreaking havoc right now, averaging the most yards per carry of anyone in the league, you cannot say the same about the other RBs. And more importantly, the OL plays a big part in this as well.
The 49ers currently are being run stuffed at an astronomical rate of 27% on rushing attempts, the worst in the league. That is a massive sign, that this offensive line will not be what it was last year.
But it’s not just the offensive line. Tevin Coleman currently has a DVOA of -57.4%, 2nd worst in the league among qualifiers with at least 8 rushes. If you could not tell, that is bad… very bad. And while Jerick McKinnon and Raheem Mostert are much higher in that same category, it highlights why the 49ers need Mostert so badly.
Another reason: Jerick McKinnon, incredibly, spends an average of 3.23 seconds behind the line of scrimmage on his rush attempts, far and away the most in the league among qualifiers (almost 0.2 seconds more than the next). While Mostert is not far behind at 2.96, this also highlights the side-to-side/one-cut nature that a Shanahan offense is famous for. Mostert and McKinnon best exemplify this. The problem comes when the offensive line, as seen above, is allowing a league worst stuff rate. The vast majority of 49ers rushing yards come in the open field, specifically on average, 1.47, best in the league. At the 2nd level? Same story, averaging 1.26 yards in that area of the field, 12th in the league. There is no question that the 49ers have the talent at RB to field a dominant rushing attack - the problem comes with that stuff rate number. The time spend behind the OL, along with the EFF% number, which according to Next-Gen Stats:
Rushing efficiency is calculated by taking the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards) per rushing yards gained. The lower the number, the more of a North/South runner.
Both Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon have very low numbers, signifying the North and South mentality that is required in a Shanahan offense. The former, Mostert, is 3rd lowest in the league. The problem with such a scheme, is when you also spend so long in the backfield because of the RB lining up so far back in most of these outside zone schemes, the margin of error for offensive lineman gets higher and higher - and the eye-test proves this with our interior OL especially.
Raheem Mostert has the 2nd most rushing yards above expectation in the league right now, and also averages the most rushing yards above expectation per carry.
This is both good and bad: It means Mostert is an ungodly talent at RB - he does his job extremely well, and makes the OL look very good as a result when it was not them responsible. This is corroborated by the Football Outsiders stat of Adjusted Line Yards, which are supposed to evaluate how many rushing yards are because of the OL - this stat: 3.81 yards, 4th worst in the league, just above Washington, Denver, and New York (Giants, poor Saquon).
Football Outsiders defines their stat with this explanation:
A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.
The 49ers are #29 in adjusted line yards, but #1 in open field yards, meaning it’s heavily dependent on the RB breaking long runs. Mostert and McKinnon’s rushing yards per attempt are highly inflated by a couple of long runs they broke. The latter benefited most, if you subtract the one 55 yard run that McKinnon had vs. the Jets in Week 2, his average drops from an elite 5.7 average, all the way down to 4.05.
The bottom line is, the offensive line has been abysmal in terms of run blocking to start the season, and while the 49ers rank high in their rushing attack, they are inflated by some long runs: but that’s actually a positive. This OL is going to get better over time, not worse (barring injury), and Mostert still is averaging a ton of yards even without his long runs - this team will need to depend on their run game, and while the OL can’t answer the call like last season, this time, the RBs will.
The Passing Attack
By far, this has been the thing most lacking so far this season. And the problems start with the offensive line, just as they did for the running game.
The 49ers have allowed 18 sacks in just 5 games, 29th in the league, and an adjusted sack rate of 9%, also 29th in the league. If I had told you that despite upgrading at LT, the 49ers would be a bottom 5 OL five games into the season, you would have scoffed - and rightfully so. It’s baffling what has happened to this OL, and with every game that passes it becomes more important that something change.
But this is not only on the OL - despite surrendering so many sacks, the 49ers OL, specifically with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm:
Jimmy Garoppolo has a 25.7% pressure rate currently. That is good for 12th highest in the league - he is not being pressured at an astounding rate.
His pressure rate last season was 20.8%. This is a substantial difference, but it’s not enough to actually explain or be the reason for Garoppolo’s bad performance so far this season.
Even weirder, there is a statistic called time in pocket. It averages out the time a QB has every time he drops back, before the pocket collapses and or he is pressured.
Jimmy G time in pocket this season: 2.4
Jimmy G time in pocket last season: 2.4
Yeah. That is not good for the argument that Garoppolo has been under duress, far more than last season. Pressure rate and hits may be higher, but when you look at how much time he actually has to throw, it’s exactly the same.
So when you take these pressure rates, and his general OL performance into play, it becomes very hard to quantify why:
Garoppolo has a bad throw percentage of 21.2%, which would be 5th highest in the league among qualifiers - the names above him? Baker Mayfield, Dwayne Haskins, Mitchell Trubisky, and Matt Stafford.
His bad throw percentage in 2018 was 13.7%.
And a quick tidbit for the Mullens truthers, Mullens’ “bad throw” percentage this season was 12.5%, 28th in the league. So it is not the offense. More troubling:
Garoppolo has an on-target percentage of 72.7%. This would be 29th among qualifiers, right above Carson Wentz (72%) and right below Lamar Jackson (73.3%). Only Wentz, Mayfield, Haskins, and Trubisky are worse.
In 2019, this same statistic was 80.7%, #4 in the league!
What is going on? Really, this mini-regression if you want to call it (since the sample size is very small), is troubling. But there is reason to hope for better - he has 16 games of good play. But this explains why the passing offense has looked so stagnant, and why the offense has been so uncoordinated and sloppy in these first 5 weeks.
Garoppolo has an expected completion percentage of 66%, but instead has an actual of 60.4% - meaning he is missing throws at a much lower rate than he should be, compared to the rest of the league. That -5.4 differential is 4th worst in the league, with Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, and Jeff Driskel (thanks, Baalke) only lower.
When you cannot depend on your OL or playcalling, the responsibility falls upon the QB to change things - and so far, Garoppolo has not answered that call.
Garoppolo’s average intended air yards this season: 7.3, bottom 10 in the league.
The same measure last season: 6.5, bottom 3 in the league.
This offense under Garoppolo simply just cannot push the ball downfield, this is corroborated by Garoppolo’s 16 games last season. Garoppolo’s LCAD (longest completed air distance) this season (small sample size), is just 29.5 yards, worst in the league.
Garoppolo’s average completed air yards this season: 4.5, 3rd worst in the league.
Last season: 5.3, 12th worst in the league.
Garoppolo is also only averaging a deep ball attempt rate of just 2.3, 31st in the league. His deep ball completion? 0%.
When your OL is not playing well, you have to make it up elsewhere. And both Garoppolo and this offense as a whole are not pushing the ball further downfield, resulting in abnormally high stacked box rates. Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon are both in the top 15 for percentage of rush attempts with at least 8 defenders in the box. Simply put, the run game with already a below average OL, is simply not going to work if defenses can get away with 8 defenders.
And this is made worse by the extremely low amount of times Garoppolo exits the pocket.
Garoppolo has been involved in a play action play 18 times this season, or a rate of 9 per game (he has played 2 games essentially). That is almost the same as last season’s rate of 8.3.
He has plenty of time and opportunity to do so, but in these 2 games so far, a total of 66 dropbacks not including sacks - he has scrambled once.
That is not going to cut it. Most of this team’s play is good outside of the pocket - and it is necessary to help our OL, and to jumpstart both the run game and the offense. The problem: Garoppolo being asked to improvise, or to make plays outside of the scheme structure, is simply not going to work.
San Francisco’s similar success to Kansas City belies a profound difference in approach. The 49ers are tied for the league lead in wins with 10 and are first in the NFL in EPA per play on outside dropbacks (0.51). But the Niners have run the second-fewest outside dropbacks in the league (28), and while the Chiefs have been reliant on the improvisational brilliance of their superstar QB, San Francisco has leaned heavily on head coach Kyle Shanahan. Nearly two-thirds of the 49ers’ plays outside the pocket in 2019 have been schemed, and Shanahan’s offense has been brilliant on those 18 occasions, earning 1.2 EPA per play. But when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been asked to improvise outside the pocket, he’s been a liability, accruing -0.43 EPA per play.
That snippet is from 538 last season, and already, one could see the difference. Garoppolo outside the pocket, and also outside of scheme, was a liability. And that’s the same problem this season as well.
The 49ers are simply not playing complementary football. And contrary to popular belief, Garoppolo’s performance is not being affected by his WRs or his TEs right now. His OL, there is an argument to be made. Not the rest of his supporting cast. We already went over the fantastic job that both Mostert and McKinnon have done this season despite both of them facing stacked boxes at a very high rate. Garoppolo has just had 3 passes dropped all season, for a rate of 1.0 which is 30th in the league.
His receivers on average have a separation of 1.68 yards, 4th in the league, and they add 4.09 yards after the catch on average, 8th in the league.
The passing offense is solely on Jimmy and his OL - not the WRs or TEs. Garoppolo has a catchable target percentage of 69.7%, 31st in the league. When pass catchers are both not dropping passes, and getting separation that is qualified as top 5 in the league - that is on the QB to not get the ball to them, and while the OL plays into how much he is getting hit, as we know, he has the exact amount of time in a clean/non-pressured pocket this season, as last season. And once again, continuing from last season, he makes far too many mistakes for a QB that is not throwing downfield virtually at all. This is from 2019, there is no sample size error here.
The final story: this passing offense is not helping the rest of the team at all. Too many turnovers put so much pressure on the defense, the lack of pressure downfield as well as outside of the pocket makes the run game extremely easy to stuff and predict, and Garoppolo is quite frankly, missing throws he did not last season. Combine all those together, and you get your answer. There is reason to be optimistic: 16 games of good play last season would suggest Jimmy will bounce back, even somewhat. But these stats simply explain why we went 2-3 in a stretch we were projected to go 5-0 in.
The Defense
The Pass Rush
Contrary to popular belief - the 49ers pass rush has actually been pretty good. Despite only notching 10 sacks - 21st in the league, the 49ers defense also has notched:
31 QB hits (9th in the league)
55 pressures (4th in the league)
30.1% pressure rate (3rd in the league)
19 QB knockdowns (3rd in the league)
11.9% QB knockdown rate (2nd in the league)
26 hurries (4th in the league)
14.2% hurry rate (3rd in the league)
5.9% sack rate (16th in the league)
As you can see - sacks might be the only thing this pass rush is lacking. They are getting to the QB, and at an elite rate. It’s a matter of finishing these pressures, these hits, etc.. Granted, these games have been against the Cardinals, Jets, Giants, Eagles, and Dolphins. All five are easily among the bottom ten offensive lines in the league, and the last four of which were starting rookies at offensive tackle.
But this is still encouraging either way - even if these numbers drop against better OLs (hello, Rams!), the 49ers would still be an above average to average pass rush. There is reason to be optimistic here. And with Ronald Blair, Jullian Taylor, and maybe, just maybe, Dee Ford returning, this group could see a jump. Kyle Shanahan also said to expect a signing this week, which has not happened - but they may now wait til next week to do so.
Passing Defense
The 49ers in terms of passing defense:
7.1 yards per pass attempt allowed - 9th best in the league
10.9 yards per pass completion allowed - 11th best in the league
90.4 QBR allowed - 10th best in the league
215.6 passing yards per game allowed - 3rd best in the league
6 passing TDs allowed - tied for 3rd best in the league
65.0% completion allowed - 15th best in the league
The 49ers are teetering on top 10 secondary/passing defense territory. Even with the terrible performance vs. the Dolphins, they still have been quite good.
Rushing Defense
3.8 rushing yards per attempt allowed - 7th best in the league
107.4 rushing yards per game allowed - 10th best in the league
The rushing defense, the passing defense, the pass rush - all of them seem to be fine. Not at #1 level like last season, but they are all borderline top 10.
What is the issue with the defense?
As you saw above, it does not seem to be with the pass rush. It’s with discipline. Despite being top 10 in least yards allowed, and least yards per play, the 49ers also have:
given up 15 1st downs to penalty, 5th most in the league
289 yards given up to penalty, 9th most in the league
Outside of missed tackles which the 49ers have cut down on, with only 23 this season, this team has been very undisciplined. And this is shown here, they are not doing themselves any favors by keeping the opposing offense on the field. Worse, the concerns about the 49ers vs. mobile QBs, is absolutely warranted:
221 rushing yards allowed to QBs, most in the league by far (the 2nd (KC), has allowed 140 rushing yards)
34 QB scrambles allowed, most in the league (next is 33).
Yeah. Not good. These concerns are most definitely going to be an issue, especially against QBs like Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Kyler Murray - and it highlights the lack of discipline the defense plays with, allowing QBs to escape contain, missing assignments, and crashing on RPOs and the read option.
Clearly, there is both reason to be optimistic and also down on this team. These defensive statistics can easily be dismissed because 4 of the 5 teams the 49ers played are not playoff teams, and not good offenses. Meanwhile the offensive statistics were bad, against bad competition, but they can also be dismissed because of a small sample size in some cases. Whatever the case, one thing is clear. The next seven games are against playoff teams. The 49ers have to at least go 0.500 to stay in the playoff hunt at minimum, or this season may be lost by then.
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Here are some more advanced stats:
The O Lines Run blocking efficiency
LY 89.8 6th in the league
TY 74.9, 28th in the league
They're doing worse, but it could be a result of the below:
Mostert LY
faced stacked fronts 29% of the time, TY 12%
Base fronts 29% of the time, TY 61%
and light fronts 40% of the time, TY 26%
So what - teams aren't giving any light front looks to the 9ers
But, Mostert
He had 12 breakaway runs (10+ yards) with 8.8% Breakaway run rate (#1 in the league)
This year only 2 breakaway runs with a 6% breakaway run rate (#11 in the league) probably just not enough opportunity yet.
5.3 true yards per carry LY (discounts long runs as they over-weight this stat)
5.7 true yards per carry TY
26% Juke Rate LY
34% Juke Rate TY
1.89 Yards created per touch LY (#6 in the league)
3.77 Yards created per touch TY (#3)
So, RM is actually better this year than last year. He's doing MORE work to make up for the O line / Heavier fronts.
How about passing.
Nick Mullens and CJ are both posting abysmal 2.7% TD rates, less than Half of Jimmy G's.
Jimmy has had a 90% protection rate from the Oline, significantly better than Nick and CJ AND that's better than last year by several % pts.
CJ has had 0 Danger / Interceptable passes
While Nick and Jimmy are just playing catch with the other team (15 & 11 respectively)
Nick and CJ are significantly more accurate than Jimmy
the support cast (pass catchers) are performing significantly worse this year.
Last year they were #4 in the league, this year #11 in production premium.
They averaged 1.7 yards of separation just about the same as TY.
And they're dropping LESS balls, over 50% less per game right now than LY.
That is to say, they're getting open and catching the balls, but they're not getting the YAC.
Last year Jimmy posted a 77% clean pocket completion percentage, this year is 66%.
He's simply not delivering the balls where they need to go, and the pass catchers aren't delivering when they have the ball in their hands.
There's no denying it, right now Mullens is outperforming Jimmy G across all measures including pressured pocket completion % and catchable pass rate (82% vs 69%)
CJ's pressure pocket completion % is 11% and he's completing 40% of passes out of play action. CJ is too safe and shouldn't be in the game unless necessary.
If nick can take more down field passes and be stronger in the Red Zone, no reason he shouldn't be starting.
Jimmy is the better QB, he's shown that. He needs to get his accuracy back.
Really awesome, Riqo.
If you had asked me to diagnose the issues, I wouldn't have been too worried about the defense, which holds true. However, I would have guessed the issues with our passing game were primarily due to the OL, while the issues with our running game would have more to do with us playing from behind while defenses load the box against our run.
Stats pretty clearly show that the OL is holding up about as well as last year in pass protection, and receivers are still getting open. Falls pretty squarely on JG now imo, but I'm hopeful he'll progress to his mean.
On the other hand, the OL has been abysmal in the run game, which I would not have guessed (at least to that extent). Pretty crazy what our backs have done for us this year thus far.
Really eye-opening stuff, man. Helped me see exactly where we're struggling and where we can have hope. Thanks as always for the content and everything you do for the community!