The Day After: A win, but at what cost? Plus, an interesting tidbit regarding Robert Saleh and the future of the 49ers defense.

No matter how you slice it, a win is a win, and boy did it feel good against a divisional opponent.

Dec 27, 2020

(Glendale) - The 49ers weren’t exactly good house guests yesterday. With their 20-12 win over Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals, they make the Cardinals path to and through the playoffs a lot harder.

Positives

CJ Beathard surprised many, despite throwing for a very low yard total, Beathard finished with 3 passing TDs and no interceptions (although he had a lost fumble), a stark contrast from the Beathard of the past. He has clearly tweaked his motion and allowed for more flexibility, even flashing a side-arm throw to Jeff Wilson, who took it for six. Beathard only had 182 passing yards and just a 31.2 QBR, compared to Murray who doubled his QBR at 62.3, but Beathard had more yards per attempt and a higher passer rating.

Wilson was another big positive. Along with Beathard, both are projected to be free agents this offseason, and they did well to earn themselves a little more money - Wilson had a total of 25 touches for 204 all-purpose yards and a receiving TDs, and you can be sure that this performance likely earns Wilson a little nicer paycheck come March.

Ahkello Witherspoon, who just a couple weeks ago, was a healthy scratch, had his second consecutive game of strong play. He was physical, doling out multiple big hits and stopping the screen game, and Witherspoon although surrendering a couple big catches, closed the game for the 49ers with a clutch interception of Kyler Murray. He is also battling for a contract this offseason.

No Cardinals receiver surpassed 100 yards, including DeAndre Hopkins - despite Murray throwing 50 times. A stellar performance from the entire defense.

Kerry Hyder Jr is another free agent who played well today, as he picked up a sack and was disruptive all-day. Hyder is now up to 8.5 sacks and has surpassed 35 pressures on the season, and he will likely garner a big payday from another team - this is premium production. Hyder is also one of the better run-defenders in the NFL - an all-around force this season, despite no Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, or DeForest Buckner. A team like Indianapolis or New England, with a need for a productive pass rusher with versatility like Hyder, will likely pay a premium price for Hyder - who has played himself out of the 49ers 2021 plans in all likelihood, along with Jason Verrett.

Tarvarius Moore was a big positive as well, as he also doled out multiple hitsticks and was flying all over the field with his 4.3 speed. He was almost beat deep by Dan Arnold, who dropped a perfect pass from Kyler Murray, but outside of that, Moore was pretty good today, back at his natural position of free safety.

K’Waun Williams, another player in their contract year, was also balling out today - Williams racked up 6 tackles, a sack, two tackles for loss, and a pass defensed. Fred Warner casually led the defense in tackles with 14, had three passes defensed, and recovered a fumble. If Warner is not 1st team all-pro this season, something has gone terribly wrong.

Negatives

Although the 49ers dominated in the run game, which Mike McGlinchey was a big part of, he once again looked bad, at least by the eye-test, in pass protection. Haason Reddick was abusing McGlinchey all afternoon with multiple pressures and 1.5 sacks, and McGlinchey got beat badly on a couple of reps on crucial downs. Thankfully, it did not affect the outcome of the game.

John Lynch has said that McGlinchey must put on weight this offseason, but that is clearly not the only problem in his pass protection. His lateral movement has regressed significantly, which gets him beat very badly by quick-twitch edge rushers like Reddick, who now has 12.5 sacks on the season for the Cardinals. It’s a problem.

Although this was a masterpiece that we’ve come to expect from Saleh and this injured defense, Kyler Murray still gashed the 49ers for 75 rushing yards including a 30 yard rush on the crucial drive of the game, which Ahkello Witherspoon saved with his interception. Most defenses struggle with mobile QBs, and Murray is going to be a problem for the foreseeable future - a thorn in the side of the 49ers, along with other young stars on the Cardinals like Isaiah Simmons, the rising rookie LB, and DeAndre Hopkins.

What do the 49ers gain from a win? Culture. No player, no coach, no team is playing to lose, everyone is playing to win. It goes without saying that the culture comes with a steep price - dropping from a projected #8 to #9 overall pick to possible #14 overall or worse.

You may be thinking, so what? We can just trade up. Regardless of if you support drafting a QB, a WR, an OL, a DB, an EDGE - talent drop-offs are real, and the 49ers with their win today, will suffer from that talent drop-off. These are the types of wins which feel great, and then in hindsight, one realizes this is what costed the team Myles Garrett.

The win felt great. But let’s take a look at what the cost means.

It might be too early for draft talk, but with the 49ers being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the draft.. sadly, is the only thing to look forward to this offseason. For the sake of argument, iff I had to guess, the 49ers draft board will look something like this (you can mix and match, but this is likely the top 15 players):

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Trey Lance, QB, NDSU
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
JaMarr Chase, WR, LSU
Joseph Ossai, DE/OLB, Texas
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan

Keep in mind, that’s not what the general draft board around the NFL will look like. It’s simply what the 49ers draft board may look like. And here’s the problem with that. If the 49ers are projected to pick at around #14 overall, which is currently the likeliest scenario… they are out of range for all 4 of the premier QBs, likely two of the three premier defensive lineman, and out of range for the two best offensive lineman (and the best fits) in this class. And likely out of range for the top 2 DBs. There is a large talent drop-off after the top 10. This can be observed in the drop-off from the top 4 QBs to the next, the top 3 OTs to the next, the top 3 CBs to the next, and the best EDGE to the next best EDGE. The gap between Rousseau and Ossai? Significant. Surtain and Horn? Significant.

And that’s exactly the problem that led to Solomon Thomas being picked as a consolation prize for Myles Garrett. The past is in the past - but make it clear, although this win was incredible and certainly a great win for the moral spirit of the team, especially CJ Beathard who has gone through a lot… it will likely hurt them in the long term. So be it.

Robert Saleh Watch

It’s a foregone conclusion that the 49ers defensive mastermind will leave for a head coaching job after the end of this season. Detroit lawmakers have lobbied for Saleh, a Michigan native, to get the job for the Lions, and you can certainly see the fit.

The Lions have longed for a cultural overhaul and Saleh’s personality will easily fit that. As Richard Sherman put it, he’s a player’s coach, a stark contrast to Matt Patricia who is now infamous for the opposite. With talented cornerstones on offense like Kenny Golladay, Frank Ragnow, TJ Hockenson, and of course, Matthew Stafford, Saleh would enter the job not having to worry about the offensive side of the ball. Instead, he could focus on the defense, which is dripping with unharnessed talent like Jeffrey Okudah, Julian Okwara, and more. The fit is easy to see. Saleh could also look at a job like Jacksonville, where he previously coached as a LB specialist, or even Houston where he would inherit a defense with one of the greatest defensive players of this generation, in JJ Watt. But everything points towards Detroit.

And that begs the question… who do the 49ers replace him with?

Kyle Shanahan, intentional or not, hinted towards the replacement.

"As I keep saying, I hope I don't lose Saleh, but we've got a bunch of good coaches on this staff, and we'll decide that here…”

Now, most would say, Kris Kocurek. That has to be it right? Kocurek has never coached outside of the DL in his life, and there’s a reason - some people are specialists. Just because Kocurek stands out on the DL, doesn’t mean he will standout as a DC - especially with limited knowledge of what goes on with LBs and DBs. The favorite to win the job in house would be former LB DeMeco Ryans. Ryans has clearly done a great job identifiying and developing LB talent, like Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, and equally found good role and depth players like Azeez Al-Shaair and more. The protege of Saleh, who as mentioned, was also a LB coach - this is quite obvious. Especially with a new secondary coach in the fold, the 49ers would likely not promote their new coach yet - that would go to a more experienced candidate, again Ryans.

In an article by Jeff McLane, Ryans expressed his desire to become a defensive coordinator.

“That’s definitely an aspiration of mine,” Ryans said. “But I will continue to be the best linebacker coach I can be, and the best linebacker coach in the league, and eventually I’ll get the opportunity to call plays as a defensive coordinator and eventually head coach.”

The first step is a promotion, and it appears that Ryans may have a good shot at that this season.

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