What has gone wrong, what has gone right, and what needs to change for the 49ers, as we dive into the advanced stats to bring new understanding to what this 2020 season has been.
Armstead was always going to a be a risk resigning and it hasn't paid off.
I'm sure the decision was made with Bosa, Ford and Solly/Blair/Jones etc. expected to be on the line with him, but he's been a ghost this season. With Ford being crocked too, this is even more reason that we should and likely will draft an EDGE/DE in the 1st rather than a QB.
We can be the NFC champs with Garoppolo, can we ve better than the Chiefs? Maybe not offensively, but they're not guaranteed to get to the superbowl and we can beat any other team in the AFC.
On balance our best shot at a SB title in the next 2 years is Jimmy and a dominant, healthy defense. Any rookie QB will have to cope with a returning Bosa and Hyder (maybe) and likely less supporting cast across the board.
It's a hard balance about what window do you plan to make a team competitive - my opinion is that your ethos, strategy, HC and GM set you up for multiple years but individual players should only be evaluated within a 2-3 yr window, you can't plan around individuals for longer than that.
I'm so excited for this year's draft - as Shanahan said, last year they drafted to keep our superbowl window open for 2020 and this year they'll need to overhaul the team.
Many thanks, a really fantastic article. Stats don't lie, but I think like the soccer the football is very difficult to be represented by "naked" stats. And this is especially true for QB evaluation. Nick Mullens can make very good throws, sometimes exceptionally good throws, like that long pass over the shoulder to Aiyuk, but the eye test during the whole game tells it is extremely hard win games with him against strong opponent. A single play has a different value depending by a lot of factors, and it is extremely difficult consider them in a brutal stat. Is there something like "do the right thing at the right time" ? It is impossible put a such concept in few numbers, but the difference between a great QB and a back-up seems in how they manage the "bad things at the not so bad time". It is true, as you pointed in the article, that Mullens makes too often bad things at the worse time. I'm very curious to see a statistical analysis about JimmyG, and comparing it with the eye test (not mine, or at least not only because my knowledge about football is still very limited and I follow you and the discussions to learn more).
Let Hyder walk, take the comp pick abd let Kocerk do what he does best. Find value FAs and make them studs. Damontre Moore and Jadeveon clowney will be available, looking to find a way to improve their game.and both probably have Kocerk on their short list of elite DL coaches who can get them paid.
Before yesterday's win my choices to replace JG at QB next year, ranked, were: Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Matt Stafford, Mac Jones; Lawrence is obviously unobtainable and Fields, Trask and Newman would be disasters waiting to happen IMO. As you point out, the win likely also makes Wilson and Lance also unobtainable. Plan B? See below.
Saleh departs (being replaced by Ryans) for Detroit and takes LaFleur with him as his OC. The Niners get a 3rd-round compensation draft pick (for Saleh); Detroit will be implementing a new Shanahan-like offensive scheme under LaFleur. Problem: Stafford is not likely to want to go through another complete rebuild and may ask for a trade, leaving the Lions with NO adequate starting QB and the need to find a relatively young but experienced QB to build with.
Solution: Niners trade Garoppolo plus the 3rd-round pick received for Salah to Detroit in exchange for Matt Stafford. Niners get a QB upgrade at a combined SAVINGS of $11 million over two years ($7M in 2021); Detroit gets a young veteran QB who knows LaFleur and his scheme with no further CASH obligation to Stafford.
And, about the 2021 draft: Niners trade down from ~#15 to ~#28, acquiring pick #2/60 and a 2022 2nd-round pick in the process. With pick #1/28 they select QB Mac Jones (Alabama); with pick #2/47 (their own pick) they select Edge Jayson Oweh (to replace Ford); with pick #2/60 (from trade) they select Center Josh Myers (Ohio State) (to replace Richburg).
Some folks are going to bitch about not selecting DBs. I think that the Niners 2021 CBs will be Verrett, Moseley, K. Williams, Witherspoon or T. Harris and a mid-round draftee (I'm assuming that Jamar Taylor will not recover in time to contribute in 2021). The safeties could well be Ward, Moore, Mayden and a mid-round draftee.
Armstead was always going to a be a risk resigning and it hasn't paid off.
I'm sure the decision was made with Bosa, Ford and Solly/Blair/Jones etc. expected to be on the line with him, but he's been a ghost this season. With Ford being crocked too, this is even more reason that we should and likely will draft an EDGE/DE in the 1st rather than a QB.
We can be the NFC champs with Garoppolo, can we ve better than the Chiefs? Maybe not offensively, but they're not guaranteed to get to the superbowl and we can beat any other team in the AFC.
On balance our best shot at a SB title in the next 2 years is Jimmy and a dominant, healthy defense. Any rookie QB will have to cope with a returning Bosa and Hyder (maybe) and likely less supporting cast across the board.
It's a hard balance about what window do you plan to make a team competitive - my opinion is that your ethos, strategy, HC and GM set you up for multiple years but individual players should only be evaluated within a 2-3 yr window, you can't plan around individuals for longer than that.
I'm so excited for this year's draft - as Shanahan said, last year they drafted to keep our superbowl window open for 2020 and this year they'll need to overhaul the team.
Many thanks, a really fantastic article. Stats don't lie, but I think like the soccer the football is very difficult to be represented by "naked" stats. And this is especially true for QB evaluation. Nick Mullens can make very good throws, sometimes exceptionally good throws, like that long pass over the shoulder to Aiyuk, but the eye test during the whole game tells it is extremely hard win games with him against strong opponent. A single play has a different value depending by a lot of factors, and it is extremely difficult consider them in a brutal stat. Is there something like "do the right thing at the right time" ? It is impossible put a such concept in few numbers, but the difference between a great QB and a back-up seems in how they manage the "bad things at the not so bad time". It is true, as you pointed in the article, that Mullens makes too often bad things at the worse time. I'm very curious to see a statistical analysis about JimmyG, and comparing it with the eye test (not mine, or at least not only because my knowledge about football is still very limited and I follow you and the discussions to learn more).
Let Hyder walk, take the comp pick abd let Kocerk do what he does best. Find value FAs and make them studs. Damontre Moore and Jadeveon clowney will be available, looking to find a way to improve their game.and both probably have Kocerk on their short list of elite DL coaches who can get them paid.
Repercussions and Wishful Thinking:
Before yesterday's win my choices to replace JG at QB next year, ranked, were: Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Matt Stafford, Mac Jones; Lawrence is obviously unobtainable and Fields, Trask and Newman would be disasters waiting to happen IMO. As you point out, the win likely also makes Wilson and Lance also unobtainable. Plan B? See below.
Saleh departs (being replaced by Ryans) for Detroit and takes LaFleur with him as his OC. The Niners get a 3rd-round compensation draft pick (for Saleh); Detroit will be implementing a new Shanahan-like offensive scheme under LaFleur. Problem: Stafford is not likely to want to go through another complete rebuild and may ask for a trade, leaving the Lions with NO adequate starting QB and the need to find a relatively young but experienced QB to build with.
Solution: Niners trade Garoppolo plus the 3rd-round pick received for Salah to Detroit in exchange for Matt Stafford. Niners get a QB upgrade at a combined SAVINGS of $11 million over two years ($7M in 2021); Detroit gets a young veteran QB who knows LaFleur and his scheme with no further CASH obligation to Stafford.
And, about the 2021 draft: Niners trade down from ~#15 to ~#28, acquiring pick #2/60 and a 2022 2nd-round pick in the process. With pick #1/28 they select QB Mac Jones (Alabama); with pick #2/47 (their own pick) they select Edge Jayson Oweh (to replace Ford); with pick #2/60 (from trade) they select Center Josh Myers (Ohio State) (to replace Richburg).
Some folks are going to bitch about not selecting DBs. I think that the Niners 2021 CBs will be Verrett, Moseley, K. Williams, Witherspoon or T. Harris and a mid-round draftee (I'm assuming that Jamar Taylor will not recover in time to contribute in 2021). The safeties could well be Ward, Moore, Mayden and a mid-round draftee.
No thanks, would rather keep JG and a third round pick to o with our new onslaught of Day 2 rooks
*go