QB Breakdown: Zach Wilson - Part 2: Playmaking, Explosive Passing, and Negatives
This is what makes Zach Wilson special, and it's what makes him so tantalizing as a prospect come April.
All rights to images and videos used in this go to the FBS, BYU, and the NCAA.
You can access Part 1 of the breakdown here.
It’s hard to overstate just how good Zach Wilson’s deep ball is. I can’t fit enough clips in here to really show how good his deep ball is - but, if any statistic can encompass it, it’s this.
Highest completion % on throws 20+ yards downfield (per PFF):
Zach Wilson - 83%
Mac Jones - 64%
Kyle Trask - 60%
Spencer Rattler - 58%
And while this stat could easily be chalked up to low attempts downfield (as it is done fairly with Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2019 season), Wilson also throws downfield at a very high rate. It’s simply incredible what Wilson has done this season.
Besides the fact that this was thrown into triple coverage, HOW do you throw this better! Seriously? What a throw, this was put in the tiniest spot that this WR could get it. You can make an argument that it was a bad decision to throw this, and in the NFL - this might get picked, but damn, Wilson makes these throws so often, and makes it look so easy, it’s hard to fault him for even throwing this. It works!
Looks like he got hit as he threw as well. You love to see him standing, and delivering dimes like this - open or not, these throws are routinely messed up by NFL QBs.
Look at how easy he gets the ball to the far sideline 20 yards downfield. The ball travels quick out of Wilson’s hand and this throw shows it. It’s not a hard read nor a hard decision to make, but just a showcase of what he can do with his arm.
He excels at throwing 50/50 balls - and he’s (arguably) got the best deep ball in college football, though I’m sure Trevor Lawrence and possibly Trey Lance (if he played) would have something to say about that. The kid from Oklahoma, Spencer Rattler? Him too. Another example.
Shanahan is going to love seeing Wilson play fearless, taking hits like these and being accurate downfield. Perfect throw, a bit underthrown - if that ball is in front of the WR instead of to the side, it’s even easier. Either way, great throw.
Playmaking
Um, yeah, another “Best in class” attribute for Wilson. While all three of Lawrence, Fields, and Lance are elite with this as well, Wilson is a Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers-type of player when he’s playmaking. The real question is, will it translate to the NFL like Mahomes, or like Manziel.
Besides the fact that this traveled nearly 70 yards in the air, he also threw it off balance across his body and got it there before the safety arrived. It’s not only how far it traveled, it’s how fast it gets there, and this is what makes Zach Wilson special.
Flushed out to this right, and he throws a rope to his WR who’s getting pushed to the sideline. This is a bailout throw when the play did not work. He’s actually got his slot WR open on a little in-cut, but the pressure prevented him from making the throw… or did it? This is where that tendency to bail on plays comes in. He makes so many of these plays because the majority of the time, he puts himself in that scenario. I mean, this is a three-man rush and the pocket is clean, but he abandons his fundamentals and has to throw this. It worked out here, but this won’t fly in the NFL where DB and DE play is much better. Still, great throw.
The ball comes out a little wobbly here, but either way, unbelievable instinct and throw to get his TE a shot at this. This is a play that DCs will tear their hair out when seeing, because it’s perfect coverage and the perfect playcall. Better throw.
He doesn’t only make plays with his arm, he’s a pretty good rushing QB as well, with 8 rushing TDs and 200+ rushing yards on the season this year. Good elusiveness, and while he’s not the fastest, he will fight for extra yards and he also knows when to slide.
Negatives
I’ve already gone through the decision-making and small mechanical flaws that Wilson has, but the biggest problem remains - his decision-making needs a lot of work, and the statistics don’t really show it.
Something troubling about Wilson is more often than not, his WRs make a play on the ball, not he making a play for his WRs. And while that’s also an art (throwing the 50-50 ball), it raises the question of how that translates to the NFL. BYU is so much better than their competition, more-so than NDSU to their FCS opponents, and more-so than Ohio State against Penn State, Indiana, etc… Is it really him making this many plays, or is it also part of his WRs being so much better than the competition?
Hard to say. It also needs to be said that his WRs dropped a ton of passes in addition to the tough catches they make as well. So it sort of balances out. But you have to wonder how much of it is luck, and how much is really him. Still extremely impressive.
This is an example of that Manziel-type decision making. This is how you get RBs killed and this is what causes turnovers in the NFL. He needs to cut this out of his game. Right now, of the big four, he’s the weakest decision maker of those four. You may see his interception numbers and think, how? It’s plays like these that do not show up on stat sheets. He gets “cute” as one scout put it, and this is what will scare some teams off, especially ones looking for a safe pick over the exciting pick.
And he does have passes sail on him, especially when he abandons his mechanics or is under pressure. Most QBs have this problem, so it’s not surprising, but it is a red-flag that when he is really getting hit a lot, he starts to miss throws.
This is a tough throw to make but missing that badly is something that he does a little too much for comfort, and it’s why guys like Fields and Lance are better under pressure. Of those big four, again, he’s not bad under pressure by any means, but he’s the weakest of the four. Part of it is to do with his OL. While Clemson, OSU, and NDSU’s teams and corresponding OLs are good, they aren’t best in college. Wilson’s is. The difference in level of team between BYU and their competition, compared to any of the other 3 QBs is much more.
2. BYU
Say what you will about BYU’s cupcake schedule — the team genuinely has the second-best offensive line in the entire country. Left tackle Brady Christensen and his 96.2 overall grade are on pace to shatter the PFF College era record for highest single-season PFF grade among tackles. Whether he is pass protecting or run blocking, Christensen has been elite. He has allowed just two pressures on 293 pass-blocking snaps en route to a 96.0 pass-blocking grade, and his 95.2 run-blocking grade is also the best in the FBS. He’s not the only top performer on this line, though. Center James Empey ranks fifth in the FBS in pass-blocking grade, guard Tristen Hoge ranks fifth in PFF grade and Chandon Herring ranks fourth among right tackles in PFF grade. Coach Eric Mateos, I apologize for the poison, but we have to give credit when credit is due.
It also needs to be said - his first two seasons were nowhere near in the stratosphere of this season, despite his OL being graded top 20 in the nation last year as well. Granted, his WRs were much more inconsistent and he had played injured for part of the season last year, but in terms of his tape (and statistically), it is much different. All of the clips I used were from this season. It took til his junior year to breakout. He was a consensus-6th round prospect prior to this season.
And then, the injury history. He’s needed surgery on his torn labrum (in his throwing shoulder) after his freshman year, and he needed surgery on his throwing hand after his sophomore season. And he has another torn labrum on his left shoulder which reportedly will need surgery after this season, although this is unclear.
Wilson, in his interview with BYU Sports Nation, added that he also has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will eventually require surgery. He said he has been limited in his workouts, including not being able to bench press, but does a lot of workouts with dumbbells and resistance bands, typical to the routine of a healthy quarterback. The torn labrum does not affect his quarterback abilities, he said, adding that he is able to play through it since he does not throw with his left arm.
The positives outweigh the negatives with Zach Wilson, and by a lot. The main problem with Zach Wilson right now is that he is looking like he will be picked top 5, along with Fields and Lawrence, and Lance could join them with a good combine. 4 QBs seem sure to go in the top 10 this season, something that happens rarely, but something we saw recently in 2018. Will the 49ers trade up?
You can access Part 1 of the breakdown here.
I have a feeling he either ends up being a super star or a monumental bust. his playstyle is very volatile. i'd still take him over any one else though. (Lawrence is the exception)
Well, after that write up I wouldn't touch Wilson with a barge poll!