QB Breakdown: Zach Wilson - Part 1: Fundamentals and Fit with Kyle Shanahan
Looking at the BYU QB - the last BYU QB that played for the 49ers was pretty good. Is Wilson next up?
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You can access Part 2 (covers explosive passing, playmaking, and more) here.
Zach Wilson. Mormon Mahomes or Mormon Manziel? Wilson is the favorite among the majority of 49ers fans if they do indeed look to draft a QB in April. And rightfully so. Wilson’s got everything. Elite arm, great ball placement, unbelievable instincts, playmaking, and mobility. He’s thrown the 3rd most TDs this season, with a video-game statline of:
2964 yards, 27 TDs, 3 INTs, 73% completion, 11.1 yards per attempt
And the season is not over yet! For most QBs, that would be a good enough statline by itself, but Wilson has done this in just 10 games, and against two nationally ranked opponents. He’s in the Heisman race, and while his tough loss (The first) last weekend against Coastal Carolina likely ended those hopes, it does not change just how well he has played. His highlights show an incredibly gifted player in the mold of an Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes. However, there is reason to pause, and parts that you only see on tape. Regardless, Wilson is one of the most impressive QB prospects in this class for a reason.
Zach Wilson has an elite, NFL-ready release. Lightning quick, compact, powerful - and although it can get “punchy” at times, it’s not a big deal at all. Great release. He throws all arm on occasion, which sometimes is a negative for players - it’s not for Wilson. His accuracy is the same regardless.
Besides the point of this being an absolute laser on the run, that release is great. One of the biggest problems that QBs with such quick releases will have is that it tends to impact how the ball comes out. Wobblers, and lower velocity especially when driving the ball to the sidelines is an issue - one that Jimmy Garoppolo struggles with although it does not limit him as much as others. Wilson does not have a problem with velocity - but there is a problem I will get into later regarding wobblers.
Great mechanics especially on the run. Wilson is comfortable in the pocket but he clearly is in his element when outside of it - which is not a bad thing. But that will impact how Shanahan sees him when it comes to draft decisions - if the 49ers indeed are interested in a QB. If Shanahan is really changing his mind on QBs, Wilson might be the most attractive option in the draft, not including Mr. Golden Boy in Lawrence.
The quick release paired with his strong arm - you don’t have to squint to see the fit within the Kyle Shanahan scheme. In theory it would make Wilson an extremely lethal passer in the current 49ers scheme - but there are some issues, that again, we will get into later.
Fundamentals are not just the release, but clearly, there is no problem with Wilson’s release. There is a problem with his footwork. It’s not an unfixable problem and certainly not a world ender. But there is a problem and it starts with his footwork.
It’s not that Wilson does not have the ability to use his feet, use his hips, slide, decelerate at the top of his drop. He absolutely does - the problem is that he is inconsistent in showing it.
Too often does he display functional and textbook footwork like this:
This is perfect. Zero wasted movement, steps into his throw, perfect pass. But then you see plays like this soon after.
First off, bad vision. He doesn’t even see the LB dropping into the flat, but that’s a discussion for later. The real problem here, is the footwork. It’s non-existent. Outside of him stepping into his throw, he does not even move his feet whatsoever. You may be thinking, eh, this is not a big deal. It is because not moving your feet essentially telegraphs where the ball is going. Watch the LB. As soon as he sees Wilson looking there with no movement, he knows that Wilson is going to be throwing there and drops. This is the same thing that safeties will see - if you don’t move your feet or keep them active, especially on these short passing routes, it will burn you because unless you are looking off the LB or safety - they already know where the ball is going.
It’s not a deal breaker by any means. But it does become of note when considering that Shanahan and his QB coaches haven’t been the gold standard of coaching good mechanics with QBs - Garoppolo’s mechanics have suffered every year he’s been here, with him becoming more and more content to throw off his back foot every other play. Don’t believe me? Take a look at Garoppolo when he first arrived, and his mechanics then, and then look at them last season. Noticeable difference. Do we really trust the same coaches to fix this inconsistency? I do. But it’s something to be aware of.
The NFL will pounce on these small mechanical issues - which is why it’s of the essence that he fixes them upon arrival to the NFL. But, it’s not always a negative.
Besides the situation in this where Wilson probably should have taken a shot at the endzone, this shows what he can do with his legs. He’s the best in this draft at escaping the pocket and buying time. And it shows both the negatives and positives. He abandons his fundamentals as soon as he sees the slightest bit of push in his OL, backpedaling whilst the pocket is clean - this could have ended badly.
He just bails far too early and looks to play hero-ball, make highlight plays, when he simply does not need to.
But he makes up for it, by ducking through and making a nice throw on the run to get the 1st, although situational awareness would have prompted him to try for the endzone or spike for a field goal.
There isn’t much sample size of Wilson under center, but there are a few encouraging plays. The majority of his under center plays are runs, but in the couple times he does throw, his drop back seems to be functional - but there’s still things remaining to be seen. You would definitely like to see more effort in his playfakes, concealing the ball and more - but again, these aren’t massive red flags. This is a vertical concept that Shanahan runs with George Kittle a lot, and Wilson executes this perfectly with the exception of his playfake (not a big deal, as mentioned). The throw is properly placed to the outside of the TE as to protect him from a big hit and lead him away from the crashing safety. Simple play, but good read, great throw, quick decision.
Again, there really isn’t much to look at in terms of Wilson under center, at least this season, but this is something Shanahan will like. Under pressure, he looks downfield first, then takes the easy two or three yards, not forcing anything. Simple play but it’s the correct play.
Another nice play from Wilson. You can tell he’s a little comfortable with his playfake, but that’s normal for most college QBs - and normal for everyone but Mac Jones and Trey Lance in this draft. Still, great touch, and great throw off his back foot to get it over the defender where only his big TE can get it.
In general, Wilson fits pretty well in this offense. It’s hard to be better in terms of fit than Lance, considering NDSU basically runs the Kyle Shanahan offense, but there’s no problem here with fit - he can do anything asked of him. Just needs a bit of coaching up - the polish needs to be there, and the footwork is a little troubling. But it’s unfair to compare guys in spread offenses like Wilson to pro-style QBs like Lance or Jones in terms of polish and footwork.
He flashes this ability to sell the playfake… it’s just going to take time. He barely was asked at all to be under center in his first two years, with the most snaps he got under center being for QB sneaks. This season, still not a lot, but definitely enough snaps where you can start to see where he can go. Just need more sample size, but again - this is encouraging, albeit also troubling.
Why is it that his footwork seems to suffer? This is where that Manziel vs. Mahomes comp comes in. He’s so unique and confident as a passer, and although he has an elite arm, it’s not a Mahomes arm - not many QBs have that type of arm. He’s not going to be able to get away with this on some of his reps in the NFL, or those reps will look more like Manziel than Mahomes. It’s bad coaching or overconfidence - I don’t think he’s lazy, it’s a matter of being so confident (and rightfully so) in your arm that you can get away with it. Fixable, but again, Wilson’s fundamentals are the weakest part of his game. But he more than makes up for it in other areas.
Decision making is the weakest fundamental he has, and also the main reason why I believe Trey Lance, not Zach Wilson, will be Shanahan’s main guy, if the 49ers do indeed look to draft a QB this offseason. Wilson will be close behind, and again, I could be wrong - but knowing the fundamentals of what Kyle Shanahan looks for in a QB and looking back on his history, Wilson’s decision making holds him back from being a grand slam pick at QB. He’s still a homerun pick.
No, no, no, no! Kyle Shanahan has likely already seen this play and screamed - decision making is one of his most desired attributes, this is a big red-flag. This is almost never an OK throw to make - the only time you throw across your body like this is if the guy is wide-open, not covered by one defender, with another safety streaking. This is what makes his comparison the Mormon Manziel, not just Mormon Mahomes. This is how you end up on highlight reels… either because it worked miraculously, or because it was intercepted and returned for a TD. No.
Wilson also has a terrible habit of getting his WRs killed, and what I mean by that is - he limits his vision of the field. Too often will a safety or LB be streaking and he puts the WR in danger with this type of throw, just because he does not see the full coverage, just the one-on-one. Elite safeties and DBs like Jamal Adams, like Jalen Ramsey, and like Budda Baker - they will exploit this to the fullest. This is a hospital throw in the NFL - and in the NFC West. Jamal Adams will light any WR up if you let him get a clean shot at a WR like this.
Now, by all means - Wilson is not all bad in this situation. And again it’s unfair to compare any of the QBs in this class to a guy like Lance, who we covered previously - Lance threw 1 interception total in his college career, which is impressive by any standard at any level. So in terms of his decision making, again, not a deal breaker, but it’s certainly a red flag. The positives outweigh the negatives with Wilson.
You can literally see Wilson make his decision, looking off the safety and getting his WR enough space to make this great throw. This is an elite decision, elite read, elite everything. Steps into his throw, adjusts his arm angle, looks off the safety and gets him to bite on the shallow route… textbook. Perfect.