The Rumor Mill: What's real, what's not - in wake of the Stafford saga
This offseason is shaping up to be crazy. Let's breakdown what might actually be a real possibility, and debunk the other ones.
Santa Clara - With the Super Bowl approaching soon, rumors about the 49ers surrounding pretty much any QB, free agent signings, and more have been in overdrive. It has gotten to the point of fatigue - what is real, what isn’t?
When you have guys like Dan Sileo throwing stuff at the wall 24/7, and reputable reporters like Matt Maiocco saying the opposite, it’s easy to discern what’s real. But there are rumors this season that don’t fit that archetype as well.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
DeShaun Watson
This isn’t happening. Unless the 49ers are willing to put Nick Bosa in a deal, the 49ers are already out of the sweepstakes - barring the possibility that Watson vetoes a trade to any team, except the 49ers - which is already ruled out with him reportedly preferring Miami and New York.
Still, there have been rumors from guys like Vincent Frank who have claimed the 49ers have offered three 1st round picks, the reported baseline offer for Houston. I doubt this is true - especially with the 49ers “finalizing a deal for Stafford”, which ended up just being interest over the weekend.
Verdict: Nearly impossible
Aaron Rodgers
Not only would the Packers be idiots to trade the reigning NFL MVP - they would not trade him to the team that they’ve lost to in the playoffs, multiple times over the past decade. If he was to be traded, it would be outside of the NFC, and that already rules the 49ers out.
Verdict: Impossible
Kirk Cousins
This one makes no sense. Legitimately no sense. First, the Vikings aren’t going to trade a QB they just signed to a mega-extension, a QB that would cost them $20M in dead money to move on from - for a slight downgrade in Garoppolo, plus a pick. It only saves them $11M. It makes absolutely no sense for a team that has a talented offense and a defense that is beginning to get healthy. With the Bears in limbo, the Vikings could easily compete for 2nd place behind the Packers in the NFC North, and Cousins gives them the best available shot at that - not trading him.
Unless Kyle Shanahan loves him enough to trade a 1st round pick for him - which if he did, I would be extremely surprised, Cousins isn’t a realistic option either for the 49ers.
Verdict: Highly Unlikely
Carson Wentz
This one… is surprisingly possible. The Eagles have minimal savings from trading Wentz - about $800K, but they aren’t trading him for cap savings (although trading him would save a ton in the future) - rather, they are trading him to get rid of him. Which begs the question - is he even worth the gamble? He would cost the 49ers:
2021: $25.4M
2022: $22M (15M guaranteed)
2023: $25M (no $ guaranteed)
2024: $26M (no $ guaranteed)
As compared to Jimmy Garoppolo - who costs:
2021: $26.4M
2022: $27M
He would save a little bit of cap space and the 49ers would be able to move on from him after 2021 easily, if he wasn’t able to bounce back next season. Still, it’s already been widely reported that the Eagles have received 1st round picks in offers for Wentz… and I highly doubt the 49ers would be willing to go to that price. We know how Kyle Shanahan feels about Wentz, but is he willing to pay the price? No idea, but probably not. Wentz has also struggled with injuries and there are questions about his attitude.
Verdict: Unlikely.
Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Trey Lance
If the 49ers are going to make a move at QB, it’s going to be in the draft. I’ve maintained this position - not only are they picking high, in one of the most QB-rich classes in recent history, all of the top five QBs (Wilson and Lance in particular) are perfect fits in this Shanahan offense. We know that the 49ers sent Adam Peters to scout Wilson and Jones during the 2021 season, and we know that they’ve had scouts “around” Trey Lance, though the latter is a little more vague. It would mark the first time the 49ers take a QB in the 1st round since 2005 - which is unbelievable in hindsight.
Verdict: Possible.
Non-Quarterbacks
You’d be hard-pressed to find a non-QB 49ers rumor these days. But they exist.
One of the bigger ones floating around is with Ronald Darby, the Washington Football team CB scheduled to be a free agent this offseason. Darby has had a volatile career to say the least, but it’s been reported by (questionable) sources that along with the new coaching staff coming in, they will look at Darby.
Darby had a great season in 2020 - allowing just 50 receptions on 98 targets, with a PFF grade of 76.0, which puts him in the upper echelon of CBs in the NFL. He can play outside or inside, and his speed and physicality all fit the 49ers scheme. He’d essentially fill the Jason Verrett role if Verrett leaves - and possibly could do it better.
Verdict: Possible
Todd Gurley III and Frank Gore
Another is with the RB room. Although both Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert are under contract for 2021 - it’s clear that the 49ers need one more guy, and it won’t be Tevin “1.9 yards per carry” Coleman. Who would that other player be?
The 49ers haven’t been reported to be interested in many names as of yet. But both former OPOY Todd Gurley III and former 49ers great Frank Gore have expressed interest in joining the 49ers. Gurley had this quote, while speaking to NBC’s Matt Maiocco:
"Kyle, he knows how to dial it up," Gurley responded. "He knows how to dial it up, for sure. ... Even with dealing with all the injuries this year with the 49ers, they were still able to put points up with the backup quarterbacks and whoever was in there at receiver or running back.
"I've definitely thought about that. Shanahan's a great coach.
There’s also the added, unspeaken factor here: Gurley is definitely thinking about playing his old team twice a year.
For a cheap one year deal? The 49ers could definitely be interested. But Gurley might be done as a quality NFL RB - he only averaged 3.5 yards per carry offseason, albeit in a bad running scheme. He could bounce back, but there’s an element of risk involved.
With Gore, he only averaged about 3.5 yards per carry as well. But you can sense that it’s coming to an end for “The Inconvenient Truth”. However, as a RB who gets one or two carries a game - and who can be a quality 3rd down pass protector at RB and a good inside runner and goalline back, he still has value. But the 49ers would need him back on a minimum deal for anything to be of worth.
Verdict: Possible
Aaron Jones
This is not happening.
Not only do the 49ers, as mentioned earlier, have basically no cap space to afford a luxury signing like this - they already have Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr, two RBs who exemplify the RB by committee approach that Shanahan takes. Jones is a bell-cow, a great one at that - but he’s going to cost a lot, and take away carries from other talent. I highly doubt this is a real rumor.
Verdict: Nearly impossible.
Alex Mack
The writing is on the wall for Weston Richburg - the 49ers would gain a lot of money by cutting him, and he hasn’t been incredible when he’s on the field either. Mack has already expressed interest in reuniting with Kyle Shanahan, saying this to Maiocco:
“Kyle is an incredible coach,” Mack said via Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. “He’s an incredible coach, great person, strong motivator and runs an offense that is something that I’d know really well and that I performed very well in.
“Yeah, that said, (the 49ers) are a very enticing thing.”
Could we see Shanahan bring in two Atlanta players in Mack and Gurley? It’s quite possible. Mack would be ideal as a great stop-gap which allows them one more year til they have to address the center position for the future.
It’s almost too obvious.
Verdict: Possible, if not likely.
In general, it’s far too early to tell who the 49ers will target in free agency in the draft. But there are signs, specifically towards someone like Alex Mack, and possibly a QB in the draft - that the 49ers could consider these guys, if not bring them in.
Of course, this front office is one of the most unpredictable FOs in the NFL. That’s a good thing for the 49ers, but unfortunately, it makes offseasons agonizing. They aren’t afraid to make splashes, in secret. Nobody saw Mike McGlinchey coming. Nobody saw Brandon Aiyuk coming. Nobody saw the DeForest Buckner trade coming - and they sure as hell didn’t see the 49ers even slightly entertaining Jimmy G in that deal. The 49ers shopped Kwon Alexander after the Super Bowl.
It’s clear they will make moves. Who will those moves send away and bring in? That remains to be seen, but you can already start to form a picture on what they will prioritize and what they won’t.
Happy Super Bowl Weekend!
I'm not seeing Gurley or, as much as I'd love it, Gore at all. Anyone else we add at RB has to play special teams or they're limiting the roster more than helping it.
Not gonna lie though. Seeing 21 score another TD in Red & Gold would be a beautiful thing!
I've got to say, you are a really talented writer Riqonator. Good read. Excited for Alex Mack!