Panic Button: Should the 49ers look to acquire or sign someone? + Dre Greenlaw: Starter
Looking at potential moves that can be made with guys like Richard Sherman, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel out. Analyzing the Greenlaw vs. Alexander debate.
San Francisco 49ers/YouTube
(Santa Clara) - It’s been 2 days now, and while the overreaction factory has stopped production, there are still lingering doubts over this football team. As if we could afford another WR injury, we got not one but two, as Richie James Jr is now also limited and likely out for next game with hamstring tightness. Deebo Samuel also has a “setback” which should not affect his Week 4 status; problem is, Jones fractures are notoriously hard to evaluate and easy to re-injure, meaning he will likely miss a little more time than anticipated. Dante Pettis and Trent Taylor were almost non-existent, and Kendrick Bourne played well but all across the board, missed opportunities. That was theme of Shanahan’s presser, and it’s clear why he sees that - whether it was the OL, the missed Mostert TD, Jimmy’s missed passes, all the pass-rush resulting in 2 sacks total, or Moseley getting destroyed by D-Hop, everywhere could have been better. Even worse, Richard Sherman has been placed on IR, meaning he is out at minimum for 3 weeks, with a leg injury. As if that wasn’t a gut punch, Ahkello Witherspoon is dealing with a concussion and going through protocol.
Thought it was over with? George Kittle also did not practice today and is now in doubt for Sunday.
Webster was someone I really liked coming out of Ole Miss, a twitchy, physical corner. I don’t think Harris is seriously injured - they are essentially redshirting him for another reason. The long-term plan for Harris makes zero sense, give him a shot. Dontae Johnson has likely only gotten worse with age, and Allen and Angulo are just practice squad guys at best. I like the Webster addition, confused about Harris.
Around The NFL
A shameful, racist message was sent by a 49ers fan to Budda Baker shortly after Sunday’s loss - that fan is now being banned from all 49ers related events. Good on the 49ers for taking action. No place for that in society.
Michael Thomas is likely out for 6 weeks or more, decimating the New Orleans WR core - they tried out Dez Bryant last season, I would not be surprised if they swing on him again.
The Cowboys have been hit hard with injuries - Leighton Vander Esch, the talented young LB, is possibly out for the season, and Sean Lee is out for multiple weeks.
But now that the NFL is in full go, so is the rumor mill. And the rumor mill has some very spicy names, to say the least.
The Browns are reportedly shopping Odell Beckham Jr. Multiple sources have both confirmed and denied this story, but it’s worth noting that Beckham had rumors surrounding him last year that ended up being true. Beckham is mega-talented but comes with his fair, but overblown, share of drama off the field. No legal issues. He and Mayfield have simply never been on the same page.
Allen Robinson has asked the Bears about a potential trade; this comes after stalled negotiations for a new deal, which Robinson 100% deserves. He’s since deleted all Bears references from social media, while his teammates lobby for him to get a new contract. Both Odell and Robinson are situations to monitor.
So let’s breakdown some possible trades/signings the 49ers can make, not just at WR, but any position
No-Brainers:
Josh Kline, OG, FA
Why has this not happened yet? The 49ers are starved for any interior OL talent, especially with Richburg out till Week 6 at minimum. Kline is an athletic veteran OG who the last time he played in an outside zone scheme (2017), had a career year posting a 67.7 PFF grade. He would be miles above someone like Tom Compton who has disappointed to say the least in his short time here.
Trumaine Johnson, CB, FA
Another one that I’m surprised has not happened yet - Johnson a couple years ago looked like a rising star at CB and got paid like it but since, due to a mixture of injuries and decline, has fallen off. Still, Johnson is a lengthy press corner with experience in zone and in the NFC West. He would be significant, cheap upgrade over say, Dontae Johnson or the oft-injured Jason Verrett. With Witherspoon in concussion protocol and Sherman on IR, the only CB we have healthy at the moment (who can play on the outside) is Emmanuel Moseley.
Jabaal Sheard, DE, FA
If we are desperate enough to sign Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah, and more, why has Sheard, a guy who as consistently averaged 5 and a half sacks a season as a bendy speed rusher, not gotten a look? He replicates Dee Ford’s skillset at a lower level of course, but as a depth rusher, much better than Jordan or Ansah. He had almost 5 sacks last season as well - in just 12 games.
Questionables:
San Francisco sends Dante Pettis
Washington sends Fabian Moreau
Pettis’ last chance comes with these next two games - I hope that Shanahan tells him, you will get targeted, you will get opportunity, if you do not fulfill it, your time here is done. I loved Pettis his rookie season, but at this point, it’s not only Pettis’ fault but also coaching and Jimmy - for not trusting him to even prove himself. He has talent and he has a future - just not with the 49ers likely. WFT would kill for WR talent for Dwayne Haskins, and Pettis could form a good duo with Terry McLaurin, and as bad as he is, is still an upgrade over what Haskins currently has. Fabian Moreau is a good, fast, and physical corner that is stuck behind Ronald Darby and Kendall Fuller - he is expendable for a bad team like Washington, and he has versatility for us, inside or outside.
Dez Bryant, WR, FA
Bryant is 31, was not that fast to begin with, and had a serious injury 1 year ago - and yet he is still faster, stronger, and catches better than most on our team - his physicality and toughness to go up and get the ball is reminiscent of Deebo, and while he has most definitely lost a step speed-wise, we don’t need him to do that - even with that step lost, he is still faster than guys like Kendrick Bourne, Mohamed Sanu, and more - with the added bonus of being tough to bring down after the catch. If not a signing, I’d have liked to see the Niners at least bring him in for a workout. Bryant has had maturity issues dating back to college, but for the past few years he has had none - I’d like to see him get a shot.
San Francisco sends Weston Richburg, 3rd round pick
Atlanta sends Alex Mack
This is likely an overpay, considering just how old Mack is and that his contract expires next season, but regardless, would almost save this OL. Mack was the driving force behind the deadly Shanahan run games from his time in ATL and CLE, and is technically sound with athleticism and football IQ to check LBs and more at the line of scrimmage.
Panic Button:
Antonio Brown, WR, FA
He might be the most talented WR in the league - but it does not matter. Even with his improved behavior over the past few months, he has a pending criminal trial, multiple arrests, and is generally crazy. Don’t forget, he is suspended till Week 8 and Roger Goodell has said that his suspension may be extended.
San Francisco sends Dee Ford, Dante Pettis, 2nd round pick
Cleveland sends Odell Beckham Jr, Olivier Vernon
A Beckham deal would only work if Ford or Alexander was sent back, and Cleveland has been looking for a true EDGE across Myles Garrett, expressing interest in Jadeveon Clowney, even offering upwards of 15 million dollars to get him. Beckham and Mayfield together - simply does not work, just as Pettis and Jimmy G, do not work. The Browns get the EDGE rusher to pair with Garrett, a talented WR reclamation project, and a high pick, while getting rid of Beckham’s contract which is just as bad as Ford, and sending Vernon, who is a decent starter level EDGE rusher but nothing more.
San Francisco sends 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, Weston Richburg, Jalen Hurd, Dante Pettis, Dee Ford
Atlanta sends Julio Jones, Alex Mack
Does Atlanta take this deal? Only if they are not in position to make the playoffs. But it is a fair deal. Atlanta gets two talented WRs as Calvin Ridley takes over the #1 WR spot, 2 high picks, a young center, and a EDGE rusher which they can pair with Dante Fowler Jr.
You will notice that I don’t include an Allen Robinson trade. Why? I don’t see a way in how it goes through. The Bears would want a WR back, as they have almost no talent at that post, and Dante Pettis, won’t cut it. They don’t have any other pressing needs, meaning a trade would involve high picks, which I am not sure the 49ers would do for Robinson who also needs a new contract - especially if the 49ers cannot send someone with a big contract back.
And while I am a big fan of Aaron Rodgers, no, it is definitely not time to think about that… yet.
Dre Greenlaw, Starter?
As Kwon Alexander gets more and more snaps, I am wondering - why did we sign him? Moreover, why did we sign him to that type of deal, at the time, he was made the highest paid LB in the entire league.
Because Dre Greenlaw is a better player. And younger. Let’s dive into the stats. Before we do, keep in mind - salary does not affect this argument. Regardless of how much Alexander is paid, we need to look at this in a different, unbiased light.
(Format: Alexander vs. Greenlaw)
68 tackles vs. 92 tackles
4 TFLs vs. 3 TFLs
2 QB hits vs. 2 QB hits
8 PDs vs. 2 PDs
2 FFs vs. 0 FFs
1 sack vs. 1 sack
2 INTs vs. 1 INTs
Right away, you can see the discrepancy and what the eye test tells us as well. While Greenlaw is a much more sound and consistent player, big plays are Kwon Alexander’s thing - he gambles, so he is naturally more hit or miss (literally).
One of the reasons why Greenlaw’s tackle totals are so much higher despite being adjusted to equal the same snap count is - he missed tackles at a ridiculously low rate. Even with his high tackle total and snap count, Greenlaw missed a ridiculously low 2 tackles, for a missed tackle rate of 2.1%. For comparison, Alexander if playing the same snap count as Greenlaw would have missed 14 tackles, for a very high missed tackle percentage of 17.1%. The definition of hit or miss. In the run game, this is not close - Greenlaw takes the win.
Alexander was the better LB in pass coverage, but the gap is not as close as you think. Greenlaw allowed less yards per completion, while Alexander allowed less yards per attempt - and both have very similar DADOT values, with Greenlaw slightly edging him out there - meaning both do not allow many yards in the case that they are targeted in the passing game. Greenlaw allowed a higher passer rating, more yards, and a higher completion percentage, but both did not allow a single TD in coverage.
In contextual grades (PFF), Greenlaw takes the win, again. Greenlaw in his rookie season posted an overall grade of 64.0, Alexander posted 61.8. While Alexander’s coverage grades were great, Greenlaw was no slouch, posting a 72.6 coverage grade which was 15th best in the league - and had 22 stops in the passing game, 3rd most in the league. PFF went as far as to call Greenlaw a top-25 linebacker in the game already.
Here is my question. Dre Greenlaw is 22 years old and on a rookie contract, and quite possibly outplaying Kwon Alexander, while Alexander is paid like the 7th best LB in the league - even though he is arguably the 3rd best LB on the 49ers. With teams like the Broncos, Bears, Washington, Patriots, and more all in dire need of LB help, while our OL and WR corps suffer, why not ask around? Alexander’s contract is bad, but not bad enough to be a negative asset - and when a team has a need at a position, they will overpay - just ask Mohamed Sanu; the Patriots traded a 2nd round pick for him. Warner is still growing, but is not elite in the run game yet - Greenlaw is. The run defense has been a focal point of improvement that is needed on this defense, and so Greenlaw should be starting - the drop off in pass defense from Alexander to Greenlaw is not equal to the improvement we get in the run game, which is the biggest issue, especially with mobile QBs like Kyler Murray - who you cannot afford to miss tackles on.
I love what Alexander brings as a hard hitter with heart, he is a leader on this team - but at that salary, especially with a fast-improving and young player like Greenlaw, tough decisions have to be made, taking into account the weakness at other positions.
Analysis, stat study, and quick film study on what Mohamed Sanu brings to the 49ers is coming soon. Stay tuned.
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The logic on Greenlaw over Alexander is sound. Is Greenlaw as fast as Alexander? Based on the need for run defense improvement, maybe it doesn't matter. I especially like the idea of a trade of bad contracts, which occurs all the time in baseball. Alexander for OBJ with additional pieces to even out the value is dreamy.
Is it time for a mock draft thread? I think it is.