Nick Mullens: Consistent + The Secret of CJ Beathard

Why the 49ers should not worry about tomorrow, or the future with Nick Mullens if Garoppolo misses time. Diving into the statistics + a shocking revelation about CJ Beathard - why Shanahan kept him.

Sep 26, 2020

San Francisco 49ers/YouTube - Kyle Shanahan’s final presser before Sunday.

(Rutherford, New Jersey) - Nick Mullens, whether you like him or not, is officially the starter for the 49ers - at least til Jimmy Garoppolo gets back. While Garoppolo’s injury outlook has improved to the point of him likely playing next week, there is a slim chance that Mullens may start next week as well. And though the Giants and Eagles aren’t exactly stiff competition, they should not be tossed aside either - especially with the devastating injuries the 49ers have suffered at each position.

Tevin Coleman - OUT with knee sprain
George Kittle - OUT with MCL sprain and bone bruise
Jimmy Garoppolo - OUT with high ankle sprain
Dre Greenlaw - OUT with quadricep contusion
Raheem Mostert - OUT with MCL sprain
Ahkello Witherspoon - QUESTIONABLE with hamstring

And that does not even include the sobering list of IR and PUP players including:

Nick Bosa - torn ACL
Solomon Thomas - torn ACL
Deebo Samuel - ankle
Jalen Hurd - torn ACL
Weston Richburg - torn patellar tendon
Ronald Blair - torn ACL
Jullian Taylor - torn ACL

While some players like Samuel, Richburg, and Blair are expected to return soon - this team is vulnerable. Coleman was also just placed on IR - as JaMycal Hasty is elevated to the active roster along with veteran LB Joe Walker. With a backup QB and backups at almost every position - things can happen. But Nick Mullens will do a good job of preventing those.

Around The NFL

The biggest news: AJ Terrell, the rookie CB for the Falcons out of Clemson - has tested positive for COVID-19 and placed on the COVID/Reserve list. He becomes the first player to test positive in season. The Falcons have begun testing everyone and contact-tracing - but early reports indicate no further exposure or spread occured.
Jaguars LB Leon Jacobs tore his ACL on Thursday. The dreaded Thursday game takes another.
Anthony Barr tore his pectoral muscle and is also out for the season.
In NFC West news, Pete Carroll hinted at the Seahawks getting a player back soon. The Seahawks have already been linked to Damon Harrison, the veteran DT and elite-run stopper, but he is scheduled to visit next week - making it likely that they both add Harrison, and the better guess: Josh Gordon is being reinstated. The Seahawks have received no word yet on his reinstatement, but I’d guess it is coming soon.
Russell Wilson is leading the MVP race, with Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray also competing; and of course, the usual contenders in Mahomes and Lamar.

Let’s be clear - Nick Mullens is not some superstar in hiding. He is however, a perfectly good QB with good decision making and vision. In his lone season as a starter, when Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a torn ACL - Mullens statline was decent:

He went 3-5 with a much less talented team (knock on wood)
64.2% completion
2277 yards, averaged about 284 yards passing per game
13 TDs
10 INTs
90.8 passer rating

The general outlook: Mullens is a limited QB. He can game-manage and make some plays, but that’s it - he does not have the athleticism or physical gifts to be anything more. I don’t think that’s fair. Mullens was in his rookie season as a UDFA - mistakes, bad throws, and everything in between has not been seen. Whereas Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be 29 soon, Mullens is just 25 with three seasons of experience, and only one as a starter. We have not seen Mullens’ full ability - and yes, his physical attributes will limit him. But if his decision-making, arm strength, knowledge, and in general football IQ has improved, he will be just fine.

I have cited expected completion percentage as a superior stat to completion. Why? Expected completion takes away the effect of a good supporting cast, and grades good throws that were dropped as completions and bad throws caught as incompletions.

With that being said, Nick Mullens had the 16th best expected completion percentage in the league in 2018.

Above guys like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, but without the volume. That stat perfectly emcompasses what Mullens is - an accurate thrower, but limited. And that can be seen in his aggression percentage, and longest completed air distance.

Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

Nick Mullens had a 12% aggression percentage.

That was the 2nd lowest in the league, behind Brock Osweiler. So yeah, he does not take risks - but that is not bad. For reference, Patrick Mahomes had a 12.2% aggression, just 2 spots below Mullens, and a little further down, Aaron Rodgers with a 13.7% aggression.

Mullens’ longest completed air distance - meaning how far the ball traveled in the air on his longest completion was just 35.8 yards, the 2nd lowest in the league.

That might alarm you - but in a Shanahan offense, don’t expect that. Drew Brees, who works in a similar offense to the one the 49ers run - and who is a first-ballot HOFer? His longest completed air distance was just 45 yards, 4 spots below Mullens. Aggression, deep balls - they aren’t exactly needed to run the offense, Jimmy Garoppolo is proof. But it will limit the offense in what it does, and that’s the problem. The good news: Mullens does his job. Simply put, he throws to the sticks, completes his passes, and generally hits his throws in the short to intermediate area - and that’s all that the 49ers need.

Here is where it gets interesting. My investigation into Nick Mullens - which revealed that he is going to be a fine backup QB and maybe a low-end starter. It revealed something else as well.

CJ Beathard has been an enigma. Most 49ers fans, including me, want him off the team - a 3rd QB wastes a valuable roster spot and CJ Beathard - he has not shown much of anything in his career so far. Shanahan picked him, trading up for him and the 3rd and the general view is Shanahan still is clinging to the chance that Beathard figures it out. But what if - He’s right?

CJ Beathard’s statline in 2018 through 5 games (0-5)

60.4% completion, 1252 yards, 8 TDs, 7 INTs, 81.8 rating

Not good. Hovering at 60% completion is not terrible but it’s not good, especially when Mullens was at 65% - a big difference in more games as well. His record reflects his play - widely considered bad. Mullens in his rookie season was better, at least by the counting tats, and it gets worse when you look at Beathard in 2017 (through 5 games, 1-4).

54.9% completion, 1430 yards, 4 TDs, 6 INTs, 69.2 rating

So the wide narrative that CJ should not have a job - from both the eye test, the record, and the counting stats - the narrative is true.

Advanced stats? Tell a different story.

First things first: expected completion. Like I mentioned earlier, it balances QBs so you can evaluate them without considering their receiving corps.

Beathard in 2018 had an expected completion of 68.4%. Highest in the league.

His differential between his actual completion and real completion was -8.1%, worst in the league - meaning his playcalling was vanilla, but his supporting group and WRs were not good either. Mullens for comparison in the same season with relatively the same group: 65.7% expected completion - 16th in the league. There is also the QB aspect: Beathard did not do his WRs any favors either - but that point does not change that his throw difficulty/situations warranted a high completion percentage.

You might be thinking: it’s a fluke number. He only played 5 games. So let’s go to his rookie season, shall we? His expected completion in his rookie season:

Beathard in 2017 had an expected completion of 65.8%. Tied for 9th in the league, with none other than Jimmy Garoppolo. This says more about the scheme than anything else.

Keep in mind, 2017’s supporting cast was even worse than 2018 - so him being tied with Jimmy - is an achievement. Especially considering the fact that the differential between their actual vs. expected? Massive difference.

Jimmy Garoppolo in 2017 (differential): +1.5

Garoppolo makes those around him better - in this case, creating the illusion that his WRs are better than they actually are. Only Drew Brees, Case Keenum, Russell Wilson, and Jameis Winston had a higher differential - meaning Garoppolo, again, benefited his supporting cast.

CJ Beathard with the same group and the same year: -10.7

Yeah, that’s a 12.2% difference in the supporting group’s performance with Garoppolo rather than Beathard, and the -10.7 - worst in the league again, and by a big margin. That not only means 2018 was not a fluke, it also means Beathard was better (still bad) in 2017 than we thought - and his supporting group, terrible. Taking away more than 10% of completion is uncharted territory. Beathard’s eye test shows that he isn’t missing WRs by a massive margin - so why is his xCOMP so high compared to his actual? Hard to say.

Now the Mullens argument comes into play: Does Beathard push the ball or is he just being so conservative that his numbers are bloated like this? Stats and eye-test both disprove this.

Beathard AGG% (amount of tight window attempts): 12.5% (in 2017, his rookie season)

Yes, that is really low, to the point which it was the lowest in the league at the time. But that doesn’t mean he does not push the ball, and like Mullens - that is both not bad and also a product of the offense. Garoppolo is just 6 spots below Beathard in this category, and Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Alex Smith are all in this range as well. His LCAD (longest completed air distance) in 2017?

59.1 yards, 5th in the league - he has an arm.

Remember, Mullens last season had a 37.8 LCAD - that is a massive difference. Jimmy Garoppolo in 2017 - had a 41.7 LCAD, 2nd lowest in the league. Like I said, Beathard keeps his high expected completion while taking shots downfield and avoiding tight window throws. That is good. Very good.

How about 2018? In his 5 games there, Beathard had an AGG of 14.8%.

He both increased his expected completion (best in the league in 2018), regular completion (around 60%), while making more tight window throws. That’s defined as: improvement. His percentage is only around 25th in the league - but I’ll say it again, that’s good. He’s got good company with that number: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, Patty Mahomes.

As for his LCAD? Not as good as his rookie season, at 48.6 yards - but still good enough, and a massive step up over the noodle arm of Nick Mullens - who had an LCAD of 37.8. It’s higher than Jimmy Garoppolo as well.

You might be thinking now: but the eye test doesn’t match Beathard being that good. And you are right, Beathard does not seem that good - but it has been a while, and losses - they cloud judgement. Stats don’t lie, though they don’t tell the full story either - and in this case, Beathard’s stats: they prove he is much better of a QB than we realize. And while Mullens and Garoppolo are undoubtedly better - maybe Shanahan was right to keep Beathard. Mullens is a valuable asset as a good backup QB - and keeping Beathard allows them to trade Mullens at one point.

Advanced stats make the argument that Beathard is closer to Mullens than we think - and while counting stats, eye-test, and every other measure of play tell different story - again, Shanahan is smarter than us. He cut bait with his other hand-picked players (Foster, Williams) from that draft. He knows that Beathard is better than what he looks like.

Mullens and Garoppolo average more yards per game, less turnovers, more TDs, less sacks - the list goes on, compared to Beathard - but it’s time to give Beathard one excuse: he’s had the worst supporting cast compared to those two. And he may have something to offer in the future for the 49ers. He has suffered from a bad supporting cast to the point where his best numbers/attributes look like his worst. If Beathard does get an opportunity - though I doubt it, don’t be surprised if he plays well.

Leave a like and comment to support us if you like the article and our content, or if you have criticism, or simply for discussion. Check out our best content, including Part 1 and Part 2 of an in-depth look into Jimmy Garoppolo, where we look at what his issues were last season, and a in-depth look into the Kittle vs. Kelce argument.

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