Jimmy G - Part 2: Trust - Training Camp Day 7: Contract Year

Part 2 where we look at what Jimmy can do this season, and summarizing Day 7 of TC: Is it actually Solomon Thomas' year?

San Francisco 49ers/YouTube

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Day 7 has wrapped up and there is a lot of stuff happening. The main story: Solomon Thomas, after being placed at NT/DT exclusively these past 3 practices, has shown out, winning multiple reps and notching a couple big plays here and there as well. Thomas is up to 280 pounds to help gain some strength inside, and it’s paid off, he’s won multiple reps against many interior IOL over the past 2 days. If he can play well at the NT/DT role with DJ Jones out, and with Kinlaw having a very slow start, it would be a game-changer. Thomas has flashed very rarely with the 49ers outside of one or two plays a season, this would be a massive shift if he keeps it up. Thomas is the ideal replacement in a perfect world for Buckner at the three technique, but if NT is where he plays well, so be it. Either way, great streak of practices. 2 sacks in 2 straight practices including on Laken Tomlinson who has played outstanding this offseason is big. Especially considering Thomas has also won many reps as mentioned before, and has gotten some run-stuffs and TFLs as well.

Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are battling like Kong vs. Godzilla, the embodiment of “iron sharpens iron”. Jordan Reed still has not fully participated, same with Armstead and K’Waun as the team is cautious with them.

The Battle at CB

Ahkello Witherspoon had his best practice of the season so far. Spoon had a couple PBUs along with an interception, and played outstanding as the #2 CB across from Sherman, who also played terrific with a pick-six today. Moseley is still the favorite but Spoon would likely get the start if he kept playing like this. Saleh/Lynch handpicked Witherspoon in the 3rd round, and athletically he is the best fit at outside corner, it’s just a matter of consistency. Before he got injured, Witherspoon was playing like a bonafide top 10 corner in the league, and after he came back he was just not the same. Jason Verrett is also looking really good, but again: Moseley is and should be the favorite, he made multiple big PBUs and big plays last season opposite Sherman and stepped up when needed. Radio silence on 6th round pick from last year Tim Harris. Is he even playing? Jonathan Cyprien also had a pick yesterday which was pretty good for the 30 year old veteran as he pushes for a roster spot.

Winning at Wideout

Boy, if Aiyuk keeps this up I think he has a shot at OROY. Aiyuk is a game-breaker with incredible speed, release ability, and YAC ability, and it’s uncanny the resemblance he has to Odell Beckham Jr. It is early and expectations like that are too much, but it’s clear what Shanahan saw in Aiyuk, the same thing that made him try to trade for OBJ multiple times. Their similarities (Beckham vs. Aiyuk):

• 40 yard dash: 4.43 vs. 4.50 (Aiyuk was injured)

• 10 yard split: 1.57 vs. 1.57

• Height: 5 feet, 11.25 inches vs. 5 feet, 11.63 inches

• Weight: 198 pounds vs. 205 pounds

• Hand Size: 10 inches vs. 9.75 inches

• Arm Size: 32.75 inches vs. 33.5 inches

• Vertical Jump: 38.5 inches vs. 40 inches

• Broad Jump: 10 feet 2 inches vs. 10 feet 8 inches

• Bench Press: 7 reps vs. 11 reps

• 8 receiving TDs in their final college season

• Target Rate in College: 27.6% vs 26.9%

• 1152 yards vs. 1192 yards

• Yards/Reception: 19.5 vs. 18.3

I mean really, can it get more obvious? That is about as close you can get to an Odell clone as possible. Aiyuk has even said this:

“I just feel like he was somebody that I watched a lot because we're similar in builds, similar playing style," Aiyuk said. "And then, what he does after the catch. 

“I think he was a guy that had a huge upside coming out of college. Not a lot of a lot of numbers, but just a great talent. So, I think just Odell is one of those guys that I watched a lot and somebody that I try to model my game after.”

They even run the same way! Aiyuk will be the #1 WR in this offense, there’s no doubt about it. He’s blown expectations out of the water so far in training camp and with Deebo likely out Week One, will probably be the #1 WR. Whether that’s a good thing to have a rookie starting or a bad thing, remains to be seen.

Kendrick Bourne is also playing amazing, again he is a touchdown machine. I’d argue he maybe has the best chemistry with Garoppolo out of anyone. His ability to adjust got him red zone targets and his TD numbers show it, Bourne has a knack to find the soft spot and position himself well for Jimmy. Trent Taylor also showing out.

Jimmy Garoppolo: Trust

Part 2 of a two part series on Jimmy G. Check out Part 1, a much more in depth analysis of Jimmy G right here.

Jimmy G helped get the 49ers to the Super Bowl this season. There is no doubt about it, all the proof one needs is that without him, Kyle Shanahan is 2-20 as head coach of the Niners. He does his job and exactly what he is asked to do in this offense. But that is why the offense has been limited. I’ve stressed multiple times that Shanahan needs to allow Jimmy to air it out, and that is what limited this offense last season.

The first criticism from the eye test? Turnovers.

Including the playoffs, Garoppolo has 14 interceptions and 21 turnover-worthy plays (TWP) by PFF’s charting. His turnover-worthy throw rate isn’t among the worst in the league, but only 13 quarterbacks put the ball in harm’s way more often

For a guy who was 19th in the league in passing attempts, his proportion of turnovers and bad throws is too high. And while this could be attributed to taking too many shots downfield, that just was not the case. We already went through how he was 29th in the league in taking deep shots, but a better indicator would be Next-Gen Stats’ aggressiveness percentage.

Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

Jimmy G was 25th in the league in aggressiveness percentage. And while that can be interpreted in two different ways, it is again proof that: his turnovers and bad plays come at a rate much too high for his amount of passing attempts. Worse, he is 25th in aggressiveness, yet according to PFF:

Garoppolo also doesn’t offset that danger with a significant amount of big-time throws (BTT), the highest-graded throws in PFF’s play-by-play grading. He has just 15 of those (compared to 28 touchdowns this year) and fields the sixth-lowest big-time throw rate in the NFL.

So his big time throws match his aggressiveness, but not his turnovers. Not good.

But enough of the bad stuff. Let’s look at the opposing side of things. Jimmy G had the 6th fastest snap to release time, meaning, he gets the ball out quick. That is necessary in this offense, and Garoppolo combining that with his incredibly quick delivery made his offensive line look way better than the 26th ranked pass blocking offensive line that it was last season.

Supporting Cast: Jimmy has the best TE in the league and the best offensive coordinator in the league. He has a decent group. A good way to evaluate this is through the differential of expected completion percentage and actual completion percentage. If the differential is positive, that means that the supporting cast is good. Negative, supporting cast is bad. QBs with very negative differentials (meaning their supporting cast made them look worse) include:

• Dwayne Haskins

• Gardner Minshew

• Aaron Rodgers

• Josh Allen

• Jared Goff

• Tom Brady

And many more, but you get the point. Jimmy G’s differential was positive at 1.7, good enough that his supporting cast would be rated above guys like Pat Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and DeShaun Watson, but he was nowhere near the top, signifying that his completions and accuracy was more him than his WRs and TEs. At the top of the list though: Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott, and Russ. Jimmy G’s completion percentage was 4th in the league, his expected completion percentage was 3rd. He is accurate, very accurate.

Expect a massive step up from Jimmy this season. Why? Trust. Not only from Shanahan to his franchise QB, but Jimmy trusting his receivers, Jimmy trusting his o-line, Jimmy trusting his knee. It all depends on trust.

What got Jimmy his massive extension? His 2017 season right? That magical season where he looked like he would never lose a game. Let’s go back to that. And the numbers will paint a way different picture.

Jimmy G in his 2017 season:

• Intended Air Yards: 9.2 (8th in the league)

• Completed Air Yards: 6.8 (9th in the league)

• Air Yard Differential: -2.4 (16th in the league)

• Expected Completion Percentage: 65.9% (9th in the league)

• Completion Percentage: 67.4% (4th in the league)

That is a monumental shift from this season. For reference, this season, Jimmy’s numbers in the same category:

• IAY: 6.5 (3rd worst in the league)

• CAY: 5.4 (28th in the league)

• AYD: -1.1 (worst in the league)

• xCOMP%: 67.5 (3rd in the league)

• COMP%: 69.1 (4th in the league)

Just as a reminder, IAY is a much better evaluator of how far downfield a QB throws, rather than yards per attempt. CAY is the same, but a replacement for yards per completion. AYD properly evaluates if a player’s completion percentage on deep shots is proportional to the amount of attempts they have, the higher the worse.

Monumental shift. He is at the worst in the league in categories that just 2 years ago, he was top 10 in. A good sign however: xCOMP and COMP got better from already being good, as if more proof was needed that he was accurate.

(Also an interesting tidbit: for COMP% differential, while I was scrolling I saw this: In the 2016 season the 2 QBs with the worst differential - meaning their supporting cast/receivers were the worst - Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert. In 2017, the same stat - CJ Beathard had the worst differential in the league. Supporting cast makes those 3 players look way worse than they truly were.)

But back to Jimmy. Trust. That is what will change this 49ers team. If Shanahan trusts Jimmy to throw deep. If Jimmy trusts his knee enough to become mobile again. The reason why his 2017 stats were so high compared to this year in my opinion: Shanahan shielded Jimmy this season. He essentially made Jimmy G’s job as easy as possible. Just deliver the ball accurately, and let the others do the work, which they did considering the leader in YAC per completion? Jimmy Garoppolo. That will be the key this season, in a season where the window is wide open. Can Garoppolo step up and take this team to the next level? Because he has already shown it. And that’s the point. This is not a case where what is being asked of him is something he has never done. He has already done it, it is just a question of can he regain what he once had.

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