George Kittle is best tight end in football - and it's not close: A breakdown + Day 9 Camp Summary: Endless Injuries

Looking through the stats in the Kittle vs. Kelce argument + 49ers trying out 4 more WRs today and injuries again piling up.

Aug 25, 2020

San Francisco 49ers/YouTube

(Scroll down to skip Training Camp Summary) - Day 9 has wrapped up for 49ers training camp, and boy, the injuries just keep on coming. Kyle Shanahan said today in his presser that Nick Bosa and Brandon Aiyuk are week-to-week, and Dee Ford is day-to-day. 3 key players for this season all getting injured is an inauspicious start with less than 3 weeks to kickoff. Aiyuk and Bosa are expected to be held out for the rest of training camp.

There is some good news though: Jordan Reed participated in team workouts for the first time today, and showed out, especially in individual drills, where he beat his man and caught a pass in all four of his reps. Reed if he stays healthy could really help mitigate some of the WR injuries and lack of talent that the 49ers are trying to navigate right now.

Some other notes from the presser:

The 49ers are not interested in Earl Thomas. Shanahan cited the roster already being talented.
WRs Kevin White, Justin Hardy, River Cracaft, and Johnny Holton were all brought in for workouts today.
TE Erik Swoope was signed. More depth at TE, Dwelley’s injury is likely worse than we think.
Salvon Ahmed, UDFA RB out of Washington, was cut today. You have to feel for guys like him, in a normal season he would have stuck and got an opportunity during the preseason at least. JaMychal Hasty now pushes for a roster spot.
49ers will hold practice in Levi’s Stadium on Friday (per Jennifer Lee Chan) to get ready for the season.

If I had to guess, White or Hardy are going to be signed. Aiyuk’s injury may be week-to-week, but hamstring injuries are notoriously hard to evaluate and easy to re-injure, meaning some decent depth would go a long way. White is by far the most talented guy on this list, he is also the one with biggest concerns, never going a season without being injured. Hardy is also a height-weight-speed guy, just like White, only he has the Atlanta connection with Shanahan. The 49ers cannot afford another WR injury. Right now the starters at WR at Week 1, assuming Aiyuk/Deebo will be out for week one (only 3 weeks away) are Kendrick Bourne, Dante Pettis, and Trent Taylor. Not ideal.

The full injury report:

Brandon Aiyuk
Nick Bosa
Dee Ford
Ross Dwelley
Ross Reynolds
Ben Garland
Weston Richburg
Deebo Samuel
Jullian Taylor
Richie James Jr.
Jalen Hurd
K’Waun Williams

And I’m sure I missed some. Just brutal. The interior OL, and WR depth is absolutely shot right now. Thankful D.J. Jones cleared concussion protocol today and was able to rejoin practice. Jones and Reed were the silver lining in this terrible day injury wise.

Trenches

As usual, Trent Williams has played incredible. Kittle said yesterday that the tag-team blocks between him and Williams will be fun, and he’s not wrong, the best blocking TE in football next to a top 3 OT in football? Sign me up. Trent Williams can push for being the best OT in football, that trade looks better and better by the minute.

In light of the injuries to edge rushers today, the 49ers moved Thomas back out to DE for today. I’m not one to criticize things like this but this is stupid. Thomas had the best week of his career this past training camp and was gaining confidence at his natural position, and you put him back at DE? After saying you would keep him inside at all costs? Hopefully this is a one-time thing. If you are short on edge rushers, move Street to the outside instead. Colton McKivitz has played really well.

The War between Wide Receivers

In light of the Brandon Aiyuk injury, the 49ers brought in 4 WRs to workout as mentioned earlier. But they also gave a lot more snaps to guys lower on the depth chart, and one guy in particular took advantage. Tavon Austin had multiple catches during 11 v. 11, and with his added elite special teams ability, I think he will make the roster. JJ Nelson was also great but Austin has consistently played well.

Jauan Jennings, the fan favorite physical WR out of Tennessee has also played well. In the absence of Jalen Hurd, Jennings has stepped up as the big body target the 49ers have lacked at WR, and QBs have routinely thrown at him in double coverage or over the middle in crowded areas… and he comes down with it. He is not fast, he is not a great route runner, but he is physical, and has a knack for coming down with the ball. His ability to get YAC is outstanding as well. He reminds me a little bit of Kelvin Benjamin, at least before Benjamin’s play fell off. Both are extremely physical WRs with good hands and tackle breaking ability. The difference: Jennings has a work ethic that is incredible, unlike Benjamin, who is out of the league because of his lackluster work ethic.

My guess at the WR depth chart once everyone is healthy is something like this:

X: Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Jauan Jennings
Y: Brandon Aiyuk, Dante Pettis
Slot/Z: Trent Taylor, Tavon Austin

The added bonus with this, is that all of these guys can play in the slot as well, not to mention guys like Jordan Reed also having the ability to lineup out wide. Jennings is the biggest guy at WR on the roster, that alone will give him an edge over someone like JJ Nelson, or Jaron Brown, or Shawn Poindexter.

Skill Positions

Raheem Mostert had a rest day today, but he is essentially written in stone to begin the season as the starter at RB. I expect McKinnon to get a ton of snaps too, possibly more than Mostert if Shanahan likes his matchup with the LBs or safeties. Coleman is Mr. Consistent. The last RB spot, I think goes to Jeff Wilson, but JaMychal Hasty is making a big push for it, although he has not gotten much opportunity either. Hasty is likely a practice squad candidate.

We don’t even need to talk about Kittle and the TEs.. but Reed if he continues to recover and play this well… he will likely be the 2nd TE by Week One. Dwelley should be TE3, and if the 49ers choose to take 4 TEs, that will 100% be Charlie Woerner. Woerner’s blocking is really good, he could get some FB snaps as well which would be added incentive to keep him as a 4th TE, and as a 2nd FB basically. I actually think Woerner is better than Dwelley already, but Dwelley’s in-game experience may give him the edge.

Saleh keeps bringing up Jason Verrett when talking about the CB battle. Witherspoon had a great day of practice today, but at this point, it’s between Verrett and Moseley in my mind. Moseley has outplayed Verrett in the regular season and during TC, but again, the added man-coverage looks seem to be making Saleh favor Verrett opposite Sherman. Verrett seems to be back to 100% health wise, he hit 22!!!! MPH during practice a couple days back. Witherspoon and Moseley played very well today however… and Tarvarius Moore as well. Moore needs to be on the field in some way shape or form. He’s too talented to leave him on the sidelines.

George Kittle: Easily the best TE in football

I know, us 49ers fans need no convincing that he is the best TE in football. But the evidence clearly backs us up.

What are the constant arguments we hear in the Kittle v. Kelce debate?

Kelce is a better route runner
Kelce impacts the passing game more
Kelce has better hands
Kelce is better in the red-zone
Kelce gets more catches

So let’s dive into the stats, shall we? We are just going to look at the passing game first.

First step: Look at the counting numbers for context.

George Kittle in 14 games: 107 targets, 85 receptions, 1053 receiving yards, 5 TDs, 12.4 yards/reception, 75.2 yards/game
Travis Kelce in 16 games: 136 targets, 97 receptions, 1229 receiving yards, 6 TDs, 12.7 yards/reception, 76.8 yards/game

At first glance, it looks like Kelce has an argument for being better than Kittle. He does indeed “impact the passing game more” and is “better in the red-zone” and gets more catches.

These stats, just like all stats, don’t tell the full story.

Opportunity (Kittle vs. Kelce)

The number in parentheses represents their rank among all TEs.

Targets per game ——— 7.6 (#4) vs. 8.5 (#1)
Target Share (among team) ——— 28.2% (#1) vs. 24.2% (#2)
Team Pass Plays ——— 32.1 (#29) vs. 37.6 (#18)
Snap Share ——— 82.2% (#9) vs. 94.1% (#2)
Route Participation (on passing plays, the percentage of times they actually go out for a pass rather than block) ——— 64.9% (#12) vs. 85.4% (#1)
Deep Targets per game ——— 0.43 (#14) vs. 0.88 (#1)

What do these numbers mean? Kelce gets more targets as a whole because his team:

Passes the ball at a much higher rate
Puts him on routes rather than blocking at a higher rate
Puts him on deep routes and throws him the ball at a higher rate

Yet Kittle, in a much less snap share and route share, still led the league in target share, which means: He gets open at a higher rate than Kelce. Leave alone the fact that Kittle is the best player on his offense with a much worse QB, unlike Kelce who benefits from having the best QB in the game throwing to him, as well as Tyreek Hill getting a ton of attention as well. More proof?

Production

Kittle and Kelce averaged the exact same receptions per game.
Kittle averaged 0.3 yards less per reception, but 0.8 yards more per target.
Kittle averaged 1.67 yards of separation per route run. Kelce averaged 1.48.
Kittle averaged 4.2 yards per route run, best in the league. Kelce averaged 2.5.

Kittle averages more yards per route run, more separation, the same amount of receptions, and more yards per target… yet Kelce is considered a better route runner?

Red Zone

Kelce had 6 TDs in 16 games. Kittle had 5 TDs in 14 games. One of Kelce’s TDs was a rushing TD.
Kittle has a 5.9% rate of touchdowns. Kelce has a 5.2% rate.

Kittle is either equal or better than Kelce in the red-zone considering he played 2 less games. Just food for thought.

So far, the main arguments for Kelce:

Kelce is a better route runner (false)
Kelce impacts the passing game more
Kelce has better hands
Kelce is better in the red-zone (false)
Kelce gets more catches (false)

Efficiency:

George Kittle has a catch rate of 79.4% (#3 among TEs)
Travis Kelce has a catch rate of 71.3% (#16 among TEs)
George Kittle has a true catch rate (instead of receptions/targets, it is receptions/catchable targets) of 94.4% (#4 among TEs)
Travis Kelce has a true catch rate of 85.1% (#17 among TEs)
George Kittle had 1!!!! drop all season. 0.1 drops per game. 0.9% drop rate.
Travis Kelce had 7 drops all season (#2 in the league). 0.4 drops per game. 5.1% drop rate.

Kelce has better hands?!?! No chance. Kittle blows Kelce out of the water in that regard.

Big Plays:

Something to keep in mind is Kansas City runs a much more vertical offense than SF. Additionally, as cited in the opportunity section, Kelce got way more opportunity to make big plays.

Kittle: 569 yards after catch (5.3 per target) #1 in the league
Kelce: 398 yards after catch (2.9 per target) #3 in the league

Kelce may be ranked #3, but don’t let that fool you. Kittle averaging 2.4 YAC more than Kelce per target, not to mention 171 more YAC in total (while playing 2 less games!!!)… Kittle can create way more for himself in big plays, after the catch. To be fair, a lot of this is also being in a West Coast offense. This can be seen because when you look at air yards the story is different. These stats are very scheme dependent.

Kittle: 484 air yards (4.5 per target) #6 in the league
Kelce: 831 air yards (6.1 per target) #1 in the league

Kelce averages 1.6 more air yards per target, a smaller margin than Kittle in YAC, but Kelce has more air yards in total, in part because of 2 more games played. The gap between air yards is smaller, than the gap between YAC ability.

Blocking:

Finally we get to blocking, and this is where the killshot from Kittle comes. Kittle is by far the better run blocker, ranked #4 in the league in run block grade among TEs, while Kelce comes in 10th. Kelce is ranked #4 in pass blocking grade among TEs, while Kittle is only 15th.

That might make it seem that Kelce is just as good of a blocker. But… opportunity.

Kittle was blocking on pass plays for 35.6% of the time.
Kelce was blocking on pass plays for 14.6% of the time, the least in the league.
The Niners ran 31.1 running plays per game, #2 in the league.
The Chiefs ran 23.5 running plays per game, #29 in the league.

Essentially, Kittle blocks at an incredibly higher rate than Kelce while keeping his standard, being a much better blocker in the run game where the 49ers run the 2nd most. In the passing game, Kelce is rated higher as a blocker, but that does not take into account that on passing plays, the percentage of time that he was blocking was the least in the league, whereas for Kittle it was much higher. And Kittle is still a decent pass blocker as well.

We can go into PFF grades where Kittle annihilates Kelce, or rankings by other players where Kittle was higher than Kelce, or rankings by GMs where Kittle was higher than Kelce… Everything points to the same conclusion. George Kittle is a better player than Travis Kelce. He impacts the passing game at the same rate that Kelce does, is more efficient in doing so, and is a better blocker. Every argument that is used to prove Kelce is better, when you get into the advanced stats.. is wrong. It’s not close. Kittle is 26 and doing this. He’s got a real shot at becoming the best TE of all time, and well on his way to Canton.

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