Evaluating the 2020 49ers Draft Class: Javon Kinlaw, #14 overall, DT - A film and statistical breakdown.

Javon Kinlaw is a massive man, hard to miss on the football field. Unfortunately, his size hasn't translated to his play quite yet.

(Santa Clara) - The way people talk about the 49ers 2020 draft class, you could almost forget about Javon Kinlaw - who went 14th overall, over Brandon Aiyuk who gets the attention. He doesn’t garner attention for a reason - let’s just say, Kinlaw did not have a good season. He had a possibly OK season. Let’s dive into why. Remember, he can easily breakout next season, but we can only judge on his 2020 season so far.

Let’s start off with the stats.

Statistical Breakdown

Javon Kinlaw in 2020:

• 546 snaps on defense

• 33 tackles (16.6 snaps/tackle)

• 3 tackles for loss (182 snaps/TFL)

• 1.5 sacks (364 snaps/sack)

• 10 pressures (54.6 snaps/pressure)

• 4 QB hits (136.5 snaps/QB hit)

Solomon Thomas in 2017:

• 696 snaps on defense

• 41 tackles (17 snaps/tackle)

• 10 tackles for loss (69.6 snaps/TFL)

• 3 sacks (232 snaps/sack)

• 30 pressures (23.2 snaps/pressure)

• 11 QB hits (63.3 snaps/QB hit)

Thomas had his position messed with, a chaotic offseason where Stanford grads couldn’t participate in OTAs, a less talented defense and DL - Armstead played in just 6 games, and Buckner was not Buckner yet (only 3 sacks on the year).

Kinlaw also had a chaotic offseason. These two both make their money inside, and yet - this is a massive difference in production, despite Thomas playing more snaps, their rates were massively different. You could attribute some of it to Thomas playing a bit on the EDGE, but that doesn’t explain more than double the pressure rate.

There is a silver lining which was that both were graded similarly (badly) by PFF. But I’m not sure that’s good news. Kinlaw did not have a good season statistically, especially in the pass-rushing department - he was largely invisible the entire season.

Film Breakdown

First play - this is a 3rd and 7, this was meant to be a long-developing play but the 49ers showed blitz from the start both with Warner who ended up dropping in the flat and Ward, who ended up blitzing. This lead Murray to get rid of this early and not take any chances with a sack. Armstead is lining up right above the center, thought that was interesting. Kinlaw is right above him, he’s going to be rushing the RG JR Sweezy here - and then you’ve got Dee Ford right above him. Ford was largely ineffective for this entire game.

Right away, you notice what made Kinlaw so enticing in the draft. His get-off and first punch on Sweezy was great. That bull-rush was great, he puts his hands on Sweezy before he can react, and drives him backwards like crazy - just plain physical dominance.

Next play, we’ve got a redzone play. This was in part some great play-design and bad LB play, but I really, again want to highlight Kinlaw here. Thomas is smart enough to get out of that triple team and use his quickness to get to the other side - but that play had three different outcomes, and that only covers for one. Kinlaw stays on his assignment and just gets brutalized. You might say, oh he got double teamed - yeah, but NFL DTs are supposed to hold up against double teams. He just gets destroyed.

Remember, one of Kinlaw’s supposed best games was against Arizona, Week 1 - at least by PFF. But if there was another game that was good, it was against the Saints where he had all 1.5 sacks.

But even this wasn’t as impressing as I thought. This is a coverage sack, this is great motor and mentality by Kinlaw to not give up, but he rushes with zero plan or pass-rush moves and gets stood up. Lining up against the right guard here, you can see again, his get-off and first punch are great and it drives back the NO guard. After that, it’s all downhill, the Saints OL gets leverage below him and he gets driven upwards, and all the force he started with is gone.

Another play from this game, and yeah… this kind of encompasses how Kinlaw’s season went. Nowhere. That’s not being overly mean, it’s just the truth: there’s a reason that guys like Kevin Givens (UDFA) and DJ Jones (6th round pick) outplayed Kinlaw. He just struggled all season in the pass-rushing department, and although he had some flash plays that would go viral (thanks, Brian Baldinger) - are they really representative of the player he was in 2020? No.

Too often does he go into a pass-rush with literally no plan. This is just a straight bull-rush, and he expects to win because of his physical gifts. It doesn’t work like that in the NFL.

Another complete annihilation on a double team. If there’s one area of significant emphasis, he needs to get better at everything regarding double teams. Seeing them coming, reacting, holding his ground - wiping out like this will only make him more of a target.

Kinlaw did flash some good moves throughout the season. That doesn’t mean that he’s suddenly a good player. 49ers fans waited almost four years for Solomon Thomas’ breakout season - it never came. Thomas showed more in his rookie season than Kinlaw and it’s not close. So my question is really, what suggests that Kinlaw will become some sort of dominant force?

His motor and effort are certainly there, he never gave up on plays and was constantly running and chasing down plays - even if he didn’t make the play. And he was a decent run defender, when not double teamed Kinlaw had some nice plays.

He could always take the Gerald McCoy, Chris Jones route and have a sophomore breakout, but to be brutally honest, there’s almost nothing suggesting that he will do that. He still has pretty much, an entire pass-rush arsenal to develop, that’s not going to happen in one offseason. I think Kinlaw can become an elite run-stopper, but the pass-rush… I just do not know.

I don’t know if he’s ever going to be that force, asking a player to develop, again, an entire repertoire of pass-rush moves while teaching him to leverage better is… tough, to say the least.

He barely showed anything, even his 1.5 sacks were coverage sacks - his one true sack came almost 6 seconds after the ball was snapped, as was his other half sack. His pressure numbers, QB hit numbers, everything - were simply not good. Outside of a few good moves he showed, some good run defense, and a bull-rush - Kinlaw was largely ineffective for the majority of the season.

This is great. But it’s not going to cut it, simply put, the least you could expect from a #14 overall pick was to outplay Kevin Givens. That didn’t happen. You can’t simultaneously be down on someone like, say, Tua Tagovailoa… or Isaiah Simmons, and then also be OK with Kinlaw’s performance.

I’m not giving up on Javon Kinlaw, it’s far too early - but I think expectations need to be changed. In the NFL, he was almost exactly the player he was in college - a violent, physical DT who made a couple splash plays. The difference is level of competition, that’s not going to get you far in the NFL, and it’s certainly not good enough for the #12 overall pick. I think people need to realize, expectations were too low for Kinlaw. That’s not a contradiction from my 1st sentence, the general outlook on Kinlaw was that he’d be a developmental player that takes a while to get into his groove in the NFL, and once he got into the groove, would be a force. It’s questionable whether that will be the case.

Year 1 Grade: C-

Why such a low grade? Well, the 49ers passed on Justin Jefferson at a position of need - who ended up tearing the NFL apart. They passed on Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb at that same position who also played relatively well, Jeudy was questionable.

But the real loss was passing on Tristan Wirfs, now Super Bowl champion and stalwart right tackle for the Buccaneers. Wirfs not only fit perfectly in the 49ers offense (better than Arians), he could have played inside at guard, kicked out to LT or RT - and provided insurance if the 49ers don’t want to pay Trent Williams excess of $20M, or if they want to upgrade at RT - where another disappointing pick, Mike McGlinchey, could have his days numbered. Wirfs was a massive miss.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and you can’t get too mad at the 49ers for making this selection. But Kinlaw’s below average play in 2020 combined with his injury issues (both knees are red-flagged for risk of arthritis, and he’s just had surgery on his knees) makes this a really questionable pick in Year One.

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