DeShaun Watson: Pipe Dream? Not so fast. + Evaluating Bust Rates in Draft History
With all the attention now on the offseason and 2021 draft, there's a lot of talk about the risk of drafting a QB, or an OL, or a DB. Let's evaluate that risk historically.
(Santa Clara) - The offseason has not even begun, and already - stuff is going crazy. Early in the morning yesterday, ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio reported that DeShaun Watson, superstar QB for the Houston Texans and consensus top five quarterback in the NFL - and just 25 years old, had discussed requesting a trade with his teammates.
Houston is reeling from a 4-12 season and the firing of Bill O’Brien, a gift to the entire NFL as his personnel decisions were rivaled if not outdone by your neighbor’s 12 year old on Madden 21.
There have been rumblings for months that Watson was very upset with the front office after DeAndre Hopkins, arguably the best or 2nd best WR in the league, was traded for a 2nd round pick and overpaid albeit talented David Johnson this offseason - and it’s gotten worse.
Although Mike Florio and PFT aren’t exactly the beacon of reliability when it comes to reporting, soon after, Adam Schefter, Ian Rapaport, and Peter King all came out with separate reports that suggested that this was indeed real. Watson is reportedly extremely unhappy with the Texans’ owner, Cal McNair, who succeeded Bob McNair - infamous for his “can’t have the inmates running the asylum” comments. There was already tension, this was further exacerbated by Cal McNair promising Watson that he and other players would have at least a little say in who the next GM and HC would be - McNair hired Nick Caserio without consulting Watson nor the players. Watson and other Texans players also heavily lobbied for Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy to receive at least an interview for the head coaching job - instead, Houston refused to even do that, with them interviewing every major coaching candidate except for Bieniemy, and Robert Saleh - ironically.
If Watson does request a trade, he would easily be the most valuable player, ever - to hit the trade market, and sadly - Bill O’Brien not being there, being replaced by the newly signed GM Nick Caserio (formerly of New England), means Watson won’t come cheap if it happens.
So you might be wondering - is it even remotely possible that the 49ers can trade for Watson, and if that’s possible - is it worth it?
Those are two different questions. Let’s break it down.
Possibility? Yes. There’s absolutely a chance that the 49ers could trade for him.
He just signed a massive extension that made him the 2nd highest paid QB in football, though rest assured, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and others will surpass that sooner rather than later. I’ve repeatedly mentioned the cap issues that the 49ers will go through this offseason - and so you might be thinking - Watson has such a massive deal and the 49ers have to give up so much, why in the world would they do this?
Well, first - he’s really, really, really good.
2nd in passing yards (not even top 10 in passing attempts)
9th in passing TDs
2nd in passer rating
2nd in passing yards per game
1st in passing yards/attempt
1st in passing yards/completion
1st in adjusted passing yards/attempt
2nd in adjusted passing yards/completion
2nd in net yards/attempt
3rd in adjusted net yards/attempt
3rd in pass completion
4th lowest INT%
10th highest TD%
10th in QBR
2nd in total offense
These are, again, incredible numbers. Unfortunately, they were overshadowed by the Texans being a joke of a franchise.
But more than that, although Watson in future years will carry a monumental 40M, then 42M cap hit in 2022 and 2023 - he only would cost the 49ers 9.8M next season. Which is a lot less than Jimmy Garoppolo’s 26.9M. He would cost less than most “bridge QBs” next season. Watson would actually make it easier to keep free agents like Trent Williams and Jason Verrett while simultaneously blowing any other FA or draft acquire out of the water as a player - though Zach Wilson and Trey Lance could become the next Watson in a couple of years.
Because Houston would be responsible for paying all of his prorated bonus, Watson would cost this year over year:
2021: 10.54M
2022: 35M
2023: 37M
2024: 32M
2025: 32M
Additionally, none of his salary is guaranteed past 2023. This may seem like a lot of money, and yes - 2022 and 2023 are pretty substantial cap hits. But for a player of Watson’s caliber, it’s a bargain. A massive one. Jared Goff has a similar salary to Watson, and in the next three years following extensions for reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and others like Baker Mayfield - this salary is one of the most team friendly contracts in the league - without a doubt.
The salary of Watson is not the issue. The issue is - cost to acquire. While you may see trade proposals from ESPN and PFF, this tweet has never been more true:
She’s absolutely right. As mentioned before, Watson would easily be the most valuable asset to ever hit the trade market if he does in fact, request a trade. A 25 year old QB who’s already a top 5 QB in the league.
Three 1st rounders? Try five, maybe six, plus players. That’s what Watson would likely garner, even with his leverage - if he requests a trade out of Houston. The 49ers would likely check in, do their due diligence, and once they hear the price tag - move on, because even though Watson’s contract and play are amazing, 5 1st round picks is a lot - and the 49ers already aren’t set up well for the future with a ton of open roster spots. Surrendering a half-decade of 1st round picks is - rough, although for Watson, it may actually be justifiable.
Now here is where it gets interesting. Watson has a no-trade clause which essentially allows him to dictate the team that he is traded to. He’s not going to want to go to a team like the Jets, or Jaguars, or any other troubled franchise. He wants to win. And Houston is most definitely not going to want to trade him in the AFC though I’m sure if they got a good enough offer, they’d consider it. Cough, Miami Dolphins, cough.
Which leaves the cream of the crop in the NFC. Enter… the Chicago Bears, the Minnesota Vikings, the Washington Football Team, possibly the Atlanta Falcons, and easily the front-runner in the NFC - the San Francisco 49ers. This is a QB destination - make no mistake. Most QBs would dream of the scenario that Garoppolo and the other QBs have gotten here with a healthy roster, and Watson would surely prefer the 49ers as a destination over the Bears - who passed on him to select another QB in Mitchell Trubisky. While Washington, Minnesota, and Atlanta are all fair destinations, Cousins has a long term deal which doesn’t allow for Minnesota to really make a change, and Atlanta - isn’t very close to winning, although Watson would change things if he was throwing to Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Hayden Hurst.
The 49ers when healthy have a NFC contender type of roster, the best playcaller in the league, front office stability - and a need as well with the means to make such a move.
While trading for Watson is extremely unlikely because of the sheer price to acquire, along with the Texans likely not even entertaining a trade - if he requests a trade specifically to one of these teams - that price drops, and by a lot. Which makes that a plausible albeit still crazy scenario. So let me summarize: salary good, price to acquire bad. But if he requests a trade specifically to a couple of teams or only one or two - and one of those includes the 49ers… this can be very interesting.
Kyle Shanahan liked Watson in the draft. Although he visited Mitch Trubisky’s pro day and Patrick Mahomes’ as well, the 49ers treated Watson differently - they spent one of their thirty allowed private workouts per draft on Watson, and also reportedly flew him to Santa Clara. Watson is a good fit in this offense - an extremely efficient, playmaking QB with very good decision making.
Evaluating Bust Rates in the NFL
Approaching the draft, I thought this would be a valuable exercise considering there arguments being made about certain positions being more risky than others.
Now, keep in mind - these are standards of bust and success made by me. Your personal definitions may be different, but I tried to go off the consensus rather than my personal views.
The main criteria:
Did they perform, and stay with the team past the first five years, and if they didn’t, did they produce in five years with the team before moving on?
So, while Laken Tomlinson has performed well for us in his couple of years as our starting LG, he is a bust for the Lions, who drafted him. That’s just one example.
Quarterbacks
2015-2020
59% success rate for QBs
41% bust rate for QBs
2010-2020
45% success rate for QBs
55% bust rate for QBs
That is a massive difference. So why not go a little further.
2000-2020
47% success rate for QBs
53% bust rate for QBs
If I’m being honest, that 2010-14 range really messed things up for QBs. EJ Manuel, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, and others - they weigh down a twenty-year period which was very good outside of those five years.
If I evaluate the bust rate and success rate of QBs from 2000-2009, combined with 2015-2020, it comes up with this (without 2010-14):
54% success rate
46% bust rate
So you might be wondering, why is it so much higher in the past 5 years than in the past 20 years?
Simply put, QBs… have gotten better. Or teams have gotten more desperate for QBs - in my opinion, it’s the former. On average, about 2.6 QBs went in the 1st round per year from 2000-2010. From 2010 to 2015, 2.8 QBs went in the 1st round.
From 2015 to 2020 - 4 QBs are going in the 1st round, on average, every year. And that won’t change this year - if anything, it will get higher, with at least five if not six QBs pretty much locks to go in the 1st round. If someone gets desperate, that could become seven. Four QBs are favorites to go top 10, three of whom are projected in the top 5. This is the golden age of the rookie QB, and it’s not just teams becoming more desperate, it’s quarterbacks becoming better, and better. While the success rate of QBs is pretty comparable to other positions, this position is a lot more volatile - resulting in higher bust rates.
Offensive Line
2015-2020
69% success rate for OL
31% bust rate for OL
2010-2020
63% success rate for OL
37% bust rate for OL
Probably the consensus biggest need among 49ers fans (both who want a QB and don’t), the offensive line bust rate is pretty low relative to other positions. The draft is always a risk, at any position, but knowing that you’ve got a lower chance of a bust is very comforting. Almost a 1/2 chance that you find a long-term starter in the draft when taking offensive lineman. This also happens to be a very strong OL class, with multiple tackles and interior OL projected in the 1st round. Penei Sewell is possibly the best tackle prospect since Trent Williams.
EDGE
2015-2020
50% success rate for EDGEs
50% bust rate for EDGEs
2010-2020
55% success rate for EDGEs
45% bust rate for EDGEs
The success rate for EDGEs is not very high in the past five years, and while it’s much better if you go back to 2010 onward, that’s in large part because of the incredible 2011 draft class which yielded Von Miller, JJ Watt, Aldon Smith, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan, and Cameron Jordan all in the 1st round. Either way, EDGE is definitely one of the more risky positions to pick.
Cornerback
2015-2020
58% success rate for CBs
42% bust rate for CBs
2010-2020
56% success rate for CBs
44% bust rate for CBs
This might be the most surprising result - CBs are pretty good in general. The average amount of CBs of being taken in the 1st round has remained around the same year over year - so the success and bust rate also staying pretty stable is expected.
The conclusion of this - yes, it is a little riskier to draft a QB - that’s to be expected with the most important QB in football. Higher stakes, higher standards. The issue comes when ignoring that CBs, or DEs are also dangerous to draft - in general, any position comes with risk. And it’s not as simple as bust and success rates either - for example, I’d encourage you to look at of the QBs drafted in the 1st round over the past decade, how many of them went to a situation they could succeed? How many had stable front offices, or not terrible teams? The answer is a lot more nuanced than saying - yeah, QBs fail more often than most positions.
With this class being strong at most positions of need for the 49ers, at QB, OL, CB, though EDGE is a weak class this year - the 49ers have their work cut out for them.
The corner success rate doesn't surprise me. The OL does. Always felt like a lot of tackles bust hard, but maybe that's because a missed OL pick hurts a lot more than most other positions
The price requested by Houston could be huge, but they have to deal with a player who doesn't want play for them and a falling price every year. What could they do in 2023, still pay 40 mil/y for a player who probably want go away as soon as possible ? It is a bad situation for them too, I can't see a trade now with 10 mil. cap hit, but in a couple of years... For much less than 4-5 first picks. From the SF point of view it could be doable if we could offer some players, more than picks, but most our players are "damaged goods" for injuries, so giving up a lot of picks now would be a suicide. But in 2023 if QB is still a weakness I could see a solid offer for DW. Obviously a lot of "if" and two years is a very long time.