How, exactly, will the offense change with Trey Lance under center?
Enough has been discussed about the Lance vs. Garoppolo debate that is inevitably going to be decided at one point. What specifically is going to change when Trey Lance takes over on Sundays?
Santa Clara, CA - It’s the dead zone of the offseason, and if you are reading this, it’s very likely that you have read all of the discourse so far regarding the possible quarterback competition that is brewing this season. I’m not here to talk about it. We’ve discussed the 49ers’ reasons for trading up. We’ve discussed the 49ers’ reasons for deciding (eventually), to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo, who when healthy, the 49ers have had success with. Not much has been discussed about how the offense will change under Trey Lance. When Lance does take over, whether it’s mid-season, Week 1, or Week 1 of 2022, there are going to be elements reintroduced in this offense that have not been seen in quite some time. Let’s dive into what those elements are.
11 v. 11 football
The easy one: Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have not run their QB very much. One doesn’t need to be Bill Walsh to see that, but let’s quantify that.
2017: 21 read-option plays - 15th in the league
2018: 11 read-option plays - 18th in the league
2019: 4 read-option plays - 29th in the league
2020: 18 read-option plays - 21st in the league
The same behavior can be observed in RPO frequency.
2017: 0 RPO plays - 32nd in the league
2018: 0 RPO plays - 32nd in the league
2019: 18 RPO plays - 26th in the league
2020: 14 RPO plays - 30th in the league
Having a mobile QB will change all of this. Let’s be clear - Kyle Shanahan picked Trey Lance for his passing ability. But you can be sure that Shanahan is going to use Lance’s rushing ability to make this offense lethal, and read-option/RPO plays are the pathway to that. Shanahan is likely going to dust-off some of the RG3 plays from 2012 - but he’s learned his lesson with overworking mobile QBs in that regard. Rather, Lance’s rushing ability is more likely to be utilized as a threat rather than an actual weapon. Defensive coordinators will have to live with the nagging threat that Lance can take off, and like many analysts have pointed out, the 49ers offense is now 11 on 11. It’s not just read-options, RPOs - anything from inverted veer to jet motion options can be utilized with Lance, and that is a scary thought. We already know how potent the jet motion game is with guys like Mullens and Beathard under center, imagine Deebo going in motion getting the handoff from Lance - or in some cases, Lance pulling it and taking off himself. Those plays were ran all the time at NDSU, and just the risk of Lance doing that is enough for a defense to have to think about it, which is the goal.
However, more than anything, Lance’s freakish combination of size, athleticism, and elusiveness is going to be absolutely essential within the redzone. The 49ers have not been very good in terms of converting red-zone opportunities into points:
2017 - 27th in red zone TD%
2018 - 32nd in red zone TD%
2019 - 20th in red zone TD%
2020 - 7th in red zone TD%
The outlier is obvious there, 2020 being that high despite this being a bad season for the 49ers is not the takeaway. Rather, it’s this - even in their best season, the 49ers didn’t convert opportunities as they should have. Lance will change that instantly - his rushing ability and skillset, specifically being able to run with power will instantly supercharge the red-zone offense.
Mobile QBs do this for teams. In 2020, the top three teams in red-zone efficiency were the Packers, Titans, and Seahawks. All teams that possess mobile QBs, again, the threat alone is enough. Arizona was at #10, Buffalo at #12, Philly at #13, Baltimore at #15.
In 2019, the same holds true.
1st - TEN
2nd - GB
4th - BAL
5th - SEA
8th - PHI
9th - HOU
11th - KC (remember how Mahomes hurt the 49ers in the Super Bowl with his rushing ability at key moments)
Moving and making plays
Athleticism is not fun for defensive backs. The longer a QB can extend a play, the longer they have to cover. Ever wonder why Russell Wilson has so many amazing long balls on the move? Or Patrick Mahomes? DeShaun Watson maybe? Josh Allen? They all excel at throwing on the move and they do it often.
Since Jimmy Garoppolo’s ACL tear - ironically, one that to date, remains on the longest run of his career, Garoppolo has not made throws on the move. In 2019, the 49ers as a team (which means Garoppolo, as he was the QB for all 16 games) ranked 31st in pass attempts while on the move.
31st. That’s below the Patriots, who were starting Tom Brady. And above the Chargers, who were starting the corpse of Philip Rivers. Garoppolo isn’t 40 years old, he’s 28 at the time. This is unacceptable. And it showcases the complete lack of creativity at the QB position that led the 49ers to move for Lance.
This is going to change under Lance. Trey Lance posted an independent quarterback rating of 147.2 while throwing on the move in 2019. That’s the highest measured of any 1st round quarterback, in 2021 or 2020. And it’s the 2nd highest if you go back to 2019 - only Kyler Murray had a higher IQR while throwing on the move, and he had a perfect rating of 158.3. Murray has his strengths and weaknesses, but he’s very good on the move, and the numbers seem to bear that out. Lance did this while also throwing the second furthest downfield among his peers, with an average throw depth of 9.3 yards, 2nd only to Zach Wilson’s 2020 season in which he threw an average throw depth of 9.6 yards.
He is elite throwing on the move and he’s only going to get better, and he does it quite often - Lance made 60 throws on the move in 2019, the highest among any single season from a 1st round QB in 2020. Lawrence also posted 60 throws on the move in 2019, but he did so with far more total attempts, meaning his percentage was lower.
But what about broken plays? Russell Wilson has made 49ers DCs have nightmares with his unmatched ability to make plays out of nothing. No 49ers QB under Kyle Shanahan has done this well, with the exception of Jimmy Garoppolo prior to his torn ACL, a short but glorious run. Lance will make a lot of 49ers fans happy, giving the NFC West (I’m looking at you, Wilson and Murray) a taste of their own medicine. On broken plays (meaning plays that specifically don’t work, the routes fail to get WRs open, etc.), Lance has the 3rd highest IQR among any 1st round QB in the past three drafts, posting a 139.2 rating. Broken plays are different from just throwing off-platform or on the move, there needs to be WRs rerouting, etc., and Lance excelled in limited sample size. Only Joe Burrow and… Dwayne Haskins (weird)… posted better independent quarterback ratings on broken plays.
Bombs away
There’s been almost too much discussion about Garoppolo’s inability to throw downfield. Trey Lance is different - with his massive arm and aggressiveness throwing downfield, he has an entirely different playstyle. One popular criticism was of his downfield accuracy, and yes, there are fair questions about it. But there’s more to it than completion percentage.
On passes traveling 20 or more air yards, Trey Lance had a completion percentage of 36.2%, on 47 attempts. Not good. Players that finished above him among early round QBs from 2021, 2020, and 2019 include, in order:
Zach Wilson in 2020
Mac Jones in 2020
Tua Tagovailoa in 2018
Joe Burrow in 2019
Kyler Murray in 2018
Jalen Hurts in 2019
Dwayne Haskins in 2018
Justin Fields in 2019
Joe Burrow in 2018
Trevor Lawrence in 2018
Justin Herbert in 2019
Trevor Lawrence in 2019
Not great, considering most 1st round QBs and their respective seasons are above him, and even Jalen Hurts as well. Lance had a higher completion on these passes than only a handful of QBs:
Zach Wilson in 2019
Jordan Love in 2018
Justin Herbert in 2018
Jordan Love in 2019
Daniel Jones in 2018
Besides the obvious flaws in looking at completion percentage, and comparing, there are even more issues. Trey Lance was a redshirt freshman in his 2019, most of these QBs had multiple years in their offense. Daniel Jones hasn’t had the career he would have liked to start off, but he was ranked among the best deep ball throwers statistically in 2020, despite finishing last in college among our sample. Herbert finished poorly, and… not much that needs to be said there.
But more than that, it’s this - completion percentage isn’t even that good of an indicator. Lance was low in completion. He also finished 8th in on-target percentage, suggesting that a large percentage of his deep throws were dropped, which does fit the eye test, frankly. It gets better.
Trey Lance had the 2nd highest IQR among 1st round QBs from 2021, 2019, and 2018, only behind Zach Wilson’s final season at BYU. He did this while also being pressured at the 3rd highest rate among those 1st round QBs (in addition to Jalen Hurts). He was pressured on 42.5% of such attempts, and again as cited earlier, had a 36.2% completion. Trevor Lawrence was pressured on 47.9% of such attempts in 2019, one of the few QBs that saw a higher pressure rate, and Lawrence completed 38.2% of his passes. Daniel Jones was pressured at the highest rate of 51.1% and completed 31.3% of such passes. Zach Wilson in 2019 was pressured on 43.2% of his passes and completed 34.5% of such passes.
Sure, his completion percentage is low, but with the context of the pressure rate, it’s not nearly as alarming. Sure, some charting services don’t see Lance as that good in terms of downfield accuracy. Some scouts see it differently. Some scouts don’t. But that’s what made Lance so hard to pin down
But how is that going to change the 49ers offense?
Well, for one, it opens up the entire field. Here’s one example: Under Kyle Shanahan in 2016, Matt Ryan attempted 63 passes that traveled 20 or more air yards downfield. The 2016 Falcons are widely considered to be one of the best iterations of the Shanahan offense, a true representation of what it’s meant to be. Ryan attempted 534 total passes, meaning that his deep pass attempt rate was 11.8%.
Now look at the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. Jimmy Garoppolo in his entire 49ers career has only attempted 66 total passes that traveled 20 or more air yards. Just 30 such passes in 2019. Think about that - Matt Ryan in one season had just three less attempts. It’s not even the performance when throwing deep, it’s simply the frequency - teams don’t have to worry. And we’ve gone through how this can be seen in the stacked box rates (more on that below).
But let’s take Garoppolo’s 2019 season, the best indicator of his true ability. He attempted 476 total passes that season - giving him a deep pass attempt rate of just 6.3%. Ryan attempted deep passes at almost double the rate of Garoppolo. While a lot of this can also be chalked down to the difference in OL play, and oh, that guy named Julio Jones, it is also very dependent on the QB.
At the very least, it’s clear that being so conservative with play calls is not what Kyle Shanahan wants to do.
This is maybe the biggest change that comes with Lance. Lance showed that he can balance risk-management with aggressiveness - despite having the lowest turnover rate among his peers, he also had the highest average depth of target, at 11.5. The next closest in this year’s draft was Zach Wilson at 10.9.
Operating under center
Under center is often used as a term to describe any QB. I’m using it more literally. Despite Shanahan’s clear love of passing from under center, 49ers QBs have not exactly been good at it. From 2017 to 2020, this is how 49ers QBs have ranked in independent quarterback rating, when exclusively operating under center.1
2017:
Brian Hoyer: 30th of 35
CJ Beathard: 29th of 35
Jimmy Garoppolo: 12th of 35
2018:
Jimmy Garoppolo: 17th of 33 2
Nick Mullens: 22nd of 33
CJ Beathard: 28th of 33
2019:
Jimmy Garoppolo: 19th of 27
2020:
Jimmy Garoppolo: 18th of 263
Nick Mullens: 23rd of 26
Despite being so heavily dependent on playing from under-center, the 49ers have not had a single QB finish top 10 in terms of play level from under-center. Enter Trey Lance. Lance among his 1st round peers (from 2019, 2020, and 2021) easily has the most attempts from under center - 92, to be exact. That’s 61 more than the next player, Zach Wilson in 2020. Lance would have been 3rd in independent quarterback rating among his peers, only behind 2020 Justin Fields, and 2019 Joe Burrow, both of whom had minimal attempts. Fields had just 15, and Burrow, just 5 attempts. Lance posted a 150.5 IQR. Furthermore, when adjusted for passes beyond the LOS, Lance jumps to 2nd, only behind Burrow, who had just 3 attempts. Lance had 70 such attempts, posting a 152.1 IQR.
We know how much Shanahan loves play-action, and no prospect has been stronger than Trey Lance in the past 3 years when it comes to play-action from under center. Lance has the most attempts in that span among his peers, Lance has the 2nd highest independent quarterback rating, only behind Justin Fields who had just 15 such attempts. When adjusted for passes beyond the LOS, Lance is 1st. Garoppolo was also very strong when passing from under center with play-action, but purely from under-center (either play-action or not), he was closer to average if not below average, as seen by his ranking of 19th.
Throwing different routes and unpredictability
Jimmy Garoppolo in 2019 had almost 40% of his passes thrown to just four routes - slant routes, dig routes, whip routes, and screens. It was 38.3% to be exact, and that is almost 5.2% more than the 2nd place when it comes to those routes and the percentage that they are thrown, with Baker Mayfield having 33.1% of his attempts come on those same four routes. Next would be Kyler Murray at 29%. When players that work in the exact same offense aren’t as limited, there’s a problem. Jared Goff, the definition of a system QB, threw 23.3% of his passes on these four routes, despite working the same offense. Rodgers was lower at 21.4%. Same offense.
Limitations lead to predictability. Trey Lance will definitely change this. In fact, he’s almost the polar opposite with regards to this limitation of Garoppolo.
Trey Lance had just 41 attempts come on these routes. That’s just 14.3% of his total pass attempts. For reference, these were the other QBs in recent drafts in their most recent season:
Trevor Lawrence: 33.5%
Zach Wilson: 20.8%
Justin Fields: 14.2% (14.4% in 2019)
Mac Jones: 31.8%
Joe Burrow: 26.2%
Tua Tagovailoa: 33.2% (33.5% in 2018)
Justin Herbert: 33.2%
Jordan Love: 27.7%
Kyler Murray: 22.8%
Daniel Jones: 27.3%
Dwayne Haskins: 24.2%
Lance is effectively the polar opposite, only Fields targeted these routes at a lower percentage, and the difference was a tenth of a percentage point. These numbers are more indicative of the offense that the QB worked in rather than the QB himself, but the question needs to be asked - why would Kyle Shanahan want the QB that threw his favorite stuff virtually the least, among any 1st round QB of the last three years?
Only Shanahan can answer that, but what can be said is that Lance already showed that he can give play callers the ability to do anything in college. That may have appealed to Shanahan.
Beating a stacked box
The 49ers faced stacked boxes (8 or more) at the highest rate in the league in 2019. Both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo have extensive experience operating against stacked boxes, albeit for different reasons.
Lance faced stacked boxes because of his rushing ability as well as the strength of NDSU’s rushing game as a whole, Lance as the leading rusher. Lance leads all 1st round QBs in the last three years, in passing attempts against stacked boxes.
Garoppolo faced stacked boxes because of his limitations as well as the dependency and potency of the 49ers running game.
The difference comes with how effective each one is. Garoppolo in 2019 finished 24th in IQR among qualifiers, against stacked boxes, with an IQR of 98.6. Lance finished 3rd among all 1st round QBs (plus Jalen Hurts) in IQR against stacked boxes, with 28 more attempts than the two QBs ahead of him. Those QBs were Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. Lawrence posted a perfect passer rating of 158.3, Herbert posted a 149.7 IQR, and Lance posted a 144.0 IQR.
Therein lies the difference. Lance and Garoppolo face these stacked boxes quite a bit, only one has showed ability to take advantage of them, albeit in college.
There are clearly a couple things that should be apparent instantly, whenever Lance does take over as the 49ers quarterback. Aggressiveness, mobility, these are all traits that most big-time quarterbacks possess. The deep passing game could become a key part of this offense once again, as would the zone-read game - especially in the red-zone. The QB rushing game is often frowned upon in the 49ers fanbase - mostly due to a bad taste left by Colin Kaepernick’s decline. But people do not need reminders of Steve Young or Joe Montana, and how their rushing ability made them so much more lethal. Patrick Mahomes won a Super Bowl with his rushing ability. Russell Wilson continually gives all 49ers fans nightmares with his rushing ability. Josh Allen, an MVP candidate, is hurdling and trucking defenders, and 2020 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson - one of a kind rushing ability.
The explosive passing game has been lacking for quite some time in SF, frankly, earlier than Kyle Shanahan’s tenure as HC. Elite QB play hasn’t been here since the days of Jeff Garcia (and a couple of small tastes, with early Colin Kaepernick and Jimmy G). San Francisco has not seen a Pro Bowl QB in almost two decades. Lance might be that guy, and if he is, the above differences will be key in his rise.
Among qualifiers (at least 50 attempts in referenced season)
Did not pass qualifier threshold of 50 attempts, this would have been where he finished.
Did not pass qualifier threshold of 50 attempts, this would have been where he finished.
I think this hits the nail on the head perfectly:
"Lance’s rushing ability is more likely to be utilized as a threat rather than an actual weapon." And I think that goes for his arm talent too. Our offense will be more dangerous simply because of what Lance CAN do, without even considering what he actually does. DC's will have to account for his deep ball, plays outside the pocket, and rushing ability, all of which means they have to focus less on stopping the run - and make no mistake this will always be a run-first team.
Thanks for this strong article.
Josh Allen's remarkable Monday night game vs us last Decemeber may represent what Shannahan is hoping to get from Lance. Allen was unstoppable, in part because of his size, strength, strong arm, and he didn't try to force things or make stupid throws. Our defense was strong and we played well, got lots of presure in the backfield, but Josh Allen was able to evade pressure and extend plays and he basically just did what he wanted to do, no matter how well we played. He looked unstoppable, and Shannhan's facial expression leaving the field after the game showed he understood there simply is no answer to qb play like that.
I remember too that Shannhan wanted to draft Allen back in 2017, if he had chosen to come out that year. 4 years later, we may our unstoppable qb.