Quick thoughts on the 49ers QB situation (for the 100th time)

It's really simple in all honesty.

Santa Clara, CA - As if the last two offseason haven’t been tumultuous enough, the incoming offseason looks to be the wildest of the bunch. Of course, in typical Shanalynch fashion, the biggest storyline surrounds the QB position.

Brock Purdy showed out. The NFL is a results-based business, and John Lynch’s quote from the day before? It is absolutely the only possible thing he could have said. If the 49ers were completely healthy and lined up as you read this sentence, #13 is under center. Rookie 7th round picks don’t just come in and perform the way he did. Are there questions about certain parts of his play? Absolutely. But there is no way around it - of the three QBs currently on this roster, Purdy has already staked his claim to the QB1 job, and he’s done so very well.

The issue, of course, arises in two other fundamental issues. Sunk cost aside, Trey Lance is still a very talented QB who lost his job not due to poor play but to injury. As I said, the NFL is a results-based business. One can argue that Lance was given the job and hadn’t shown much to keep it - but how can you say that with the tiny sample size we’ve been given? For one, Lance has still never started and finished two games in a row in the NFL. For those expecting Lance to show progression, game to game progression is where the most improvement is seen typically, and Lance simply never got that chance.

Which brings us to Kyle Shanahan’s press conference this morning. The quotes that you see on Twitter lack context, I’d recommend everyone spend 15 minutes of their day watching the whole press conference, but for your convenience, I’ve summarized.

A couple of easy takeaways can be made right away however.

• Brock Purdy is the front-runner for QB1. He gained the pole position with great play and no preparation in his 8 starts last season. If he was healthy, he would be the starter, no questions asked.

• However, because he is not healthy, that opens the door for Trey Lance to start a few games before Purdy is fully healthy, depending on his 6 to 8 month recovery. Even if Purdy is healthy by Week 1, Shanahan when asked if he’d start Purdy with no training camp replied with “I got to see guys in practice” and “We’ll start the guy who gives us the best chance to win”, repeating a mantra heard for seasons past.

• If Trey Lance (or Sam Darnold in some bizarro world) were to play lights out in the games in relief of Purdy to begin the season, Shanahan would likely ride the hot hand and they would become entrenched as the team’s starter.

And you know what? This is exactly how the 49ers should be approaching this situation. Purdy earned this job. There is no doubt about it. But he isn’t healthy. And the 49ers have another QB on their roster who has never got a real chance to show what he can do. They get the best of both worlds in this, and Shanahan said so himself, saying he is fine with the QB room as is (in response to a question on possible pursuit of Ravens phenom QB Lamar Jackson), and that he believes there are three capable starters on the roster.

Shanahan also stated that they don’t know how Purdy will come back from his injury and whether he’ll be good enough out of the gate while still recovering. It’s not just when, it’s how. It’s simple at the end of the day. If Purdy isn’t in a position to comfortably start Week 1 or beyond, it’s highly likely that Trey Lance will be that guy to begin the season. And Shanahan intends to give him an opportunity to “earn it back”. If Lance does so? Sweet. If he leaves the door open for Purdy? Then Brock will be back as planned.

Before you say, well, didn’t Shanahan say Lance is competing with Darnold as well? If Lance can’t beat out Darnold, then this is not a debate. And besides, when asked about Darnold’s signing, Shanahan reiterated several times that it was about Brock’s health and having another capable starter on the roster just in case, not necessarily about their belief in Lance.

“It’s why we brought in Sam, because we can’t be set for sure on Brock because you never know how the injury will go, we think it will go well. We’re optimistic about it, but right now that’s our hope. That opens up an opportunity for Trey and for Sam to come in and show us what they have.”

I’ll have a film breakdown later this week. Glad to entertain you guys again beginning this offseason which is going to be a whirlwind.

---

Join our tight-knit community of 700+ members to experience our live discussion of all things 49ers! Over one million messages sent from users in every time zone.

Download the new Substack app to have a more immersive reading experience.