Analyzing the cap scenario positionally: What can the 49ers afford? + K'Waun Williams suspended 2 games for PED use.

Sporty takes a look at the cap scenario and positional breakdown. Looking at ways to replace talent, let go of talent, or draft new talent, including an early look at what Fred Warner's deal could be.

Ahkello Witherspoon talks to 49ers GM John Lynch. Credit to Keith Allison for image.

(Santa Clara, CA) - K’Waun Williams, the 49ers stalwart at nickel cornerback and impending 2021 free agent was suspended today for two games following a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs. This is yet another blow in this nightmare of a season, and it affects the future. The 49ers will certainly hesitate when it comes to paying Williams, who will be 30 next season, big money. Most corners fall off very quickly once they reach the end of their athletic prime, and time might be up for Williams, who has been plagued with injuries this season too.

Ahkello Witherspoon has been a healthy scratch for the past two weeks. Perhaps we see Spoon get his final opportunity before his own free agency next season - the 49ers don’t have many other players they can give opportunity. Against Cooper Kupp, one of the best slot WRs in the game? It will very important as well.

It also needs to be noted: Deebo Samuel has been bombarded with drug tests as well.

Deebo @19problemz

Only played in 3 games and done get tested for PED 5 times 🤷🏾‍♂️. What’s going on

He was tested again today. PEDs are popularly, and suspiciously, used for injury recovery, so the NFL might have Deebo and K’Waun on their radar because of their abnormally fast recovery times from injuries. This is speculation, but the NFL may be trying to catch PED usage especially when used for injury rehab. We all know the 49ers have been doing a lot of rehab lately.

The 49ers also cut/waived Kiko Alonso with an injury settlement, if you missed it. Not much going on in 49ers land, but a lot of good news, as both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr were activated off IR this week. A welcome sight for a running game that sorely needs some boost.

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SportyMiner:

The bye week has wrapped up and Riqo is already reviewing the 2021 draft prospects. Yeah. I felt the need to review our roster depth going in to next season just to put myself in the right mind before I start to consider the draft and the 2021 season.

The first thing that occurred to me was just the sheer quantity of free agents we'll have at season end. Sure, we all know we have a lot and some big names to boot, but did you know the number of FAs currently sits at 41? Forty one?!. That leaves only 31 actually on contract next year... Well, kind of. That's the players who are actually on the team, we have an additional 18 players on contracts for 2021 who are not on the team. 

I'll post the details below, but to give you the headlines, here's impact on salary cap (note, taken from Spotrac - it may differ slightly on other websites:

• Predicted salary cap: $178,795,656

• Salary apportioned to players on roster $144,092,748

• Dead money: $13,443,427

• 2021 cap space: $21,259,481 

Considering about $10m is required to cover the draft and UDFAs, that leaves us with $10M to $11M to get to a full roster next year, perhaps $20M if we restructure some contracts... We're going to have to churn over some talent in order to pay for any returning players and veterans to bolster our squad. It doesn't look pretty, but more importantly it makes our roster depth somewhat unstable.

List of 49ers FA: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/san-francisco-49ers/

List of current 49ers 2021 Roster: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/cap/2021/#

Now, I'm not going to breakdown salary caps here, I'm just using it for context for both you and me when looking at the roster depth and contemplating what moves the team will make next year. Its going to be very interesting...

From here on in, I'm going to group the positions and identify: the roster depth, their 2021 contract status, cap hit + dead money, whether I expect them to stay and what that means for the off-season. Feel free to debate in the comments.

C = Under contract
UFA = Unrestricted free agent
RFA = Restricted free agent
ERFA = Exclusive rights free agent
Example: Player A - C $3.4m [2021 cap hit] ($2.4m) [2021 dead money]  

Quarterback:

1. Garoppolo - C $26.9m ($2.8m) 

2. Mullens - RFA

3. Beathard - UFA

First things first, I cannot see all three of these QBs on the roster next year, however I do think we'll run with Jimmy for another year. Moving on from him now would cause a downward-spiral of performance for the team and no matter the inevitable turn over in personnel we still have a strong core of players to fight for a super bowl run. I think we keep Mullens and move on from Beathard - both haven't shown enough to be a QB2 capable of keeping a playoff run going and as such have limited their appeal to other teams. We shouldn't keep both as they're not the right answer at backup QB, but there's value in consistency so getting rid of both at the same time probably isn't worthwhile. If we can get one for a vet minimum we'll do that. Mullens has not been awful either.

I fully expect we draft a QB, but would expect it to be for QB2 with upside/ceiling. A new QB1 in 2022 I see as more likely and possibly a vet instead of a draft pick.

However, with a high draft pick this year, never say never to picking a QB in the first we think 'is the one', but at the moment, it’s more unlikely than likely. If Shanahan decides to bring Jimmy back knowing we won't make the playoffs, that to me will be the biggest indicator of "I want to check him over again before deciding on spending our 1st round pick on a QB”. Expect to hear Lynch be noncommittal whilst praising how Jimmy is better than Mullens.

Garoppolo’s very low dead cap number and the fact that it is listed as a potential “out” on Spotrac speaks volumes. The question is, will it matter?

(Riqonator) I wanted to chime in here. The real question with Jimmy is not his play, it’s his health. Will the 49ers risk yet another season of contention in a fast closing window on a player that has been seriously injured multiple times and will be 30 years old next season? Can they afford to risk that? The age matters because as you get older, injuries tend to become more serious. He’s exiting his athletic prime.

Center:

1. Richburg - C $11.4M ($8.4M)

2. Grasu - UFA

3. Garland - UFA 

4. Brendel - C $1M

Richburg is the interesting one. With so many injuries it's fair to question his future in the NFL, let alone SF. Kyle wanted his guy and the position is very important, so if we don't have Richburg next year then we need to find a solid replacement and I suspect a vet if possible. I think Grasu and Garland are career backups and we'll happily have both at a low cost but on the other hand both are expendable. Who's Brendel?

I fear Center will be a priority position next year, but I don't see us drafting one.

Tackle:

1. Trent Williams - UFA

2. Mike McGlinchey - C $6m ($2.2m)

3. Shon Coleman - C $9.6m ($1.4m)

4. Justin Skule - C $0.9

5. Dakoda Shepley (PS) - UFA

Yes, Brunskill and McKivitz can back up tackle too, but they are primarily Guards right now. Consider them depth, their versatility is something Kyle wants from all our OL. 

McG is a very good run blocker and very average pass protection - he's still gonna be here next year, regardless of how frustrating his play is. Williams is not certain, he wants to be paid and to play for a contender - his return will cost us a pretty penny. But I think (hope) Lynch and Paraag will find a way. 

Skule is not strong enough as a swing tackle nor has the versatility to play guard effectively. He's on contract though at a cheap salary, so he's safe for now I think, but won't see another contract. Then we have Coleman, the forgotten man at swing tackle - assuming he's healthy enough to continue, he will bolster our tackle depth a lot. I suspect we pick up a UDFA or very low round pick on a swing tackle with upside, nothing more. We should be good at Tackle unless we lose Williams - if that happens, I'd look for a 1st round LT or a strong/expensive vet. This is the biggest FA signing priority/decision/action this year with significant impact on how we the rest of the team. 

Guard:

1. Tomlinson - C $6.6m ($2.6m)

2. Brunskill - UFA? 

3. McKivitz - C $0.9m ($0.2m)

4. Compton - UFA

5. Bergstrom (PS) - (a G or T?) 

First thing's first, Compton is gone. Bye-bye. Guard has been a weakness, especially RG next to McG during pass protection. In fact, we haven't been great at run blocking this year either. Tomlinson is safe as our best guard. McKivitz is raw and needs more time to develop as G/T backup, but it's his first year and he has potential, hope to see him get more snaps and develop. Brunskill has done enough to stick around in the short term. 

I think we bring in a quality RG as a priority, depending on how things go with Richburg and Trent Williams returning (as their replacements will be a priority if needed). I'd like a day 2 pick or a solid vet to replace Brunskill at RG and move him back to swing backup role.

Wide Receivers:

1. Aiyuk - C $2.8M ($10.2M)

2. Deebo - C $2.0M ($2.0M)

3. Bourne - UFA 

4. Taylor - UFA

5. James Jr - C $0.9M

6. Cracraft - ERFA

7. Hurd - C $1.2M ($0.6M)

8. White (PS) - UFA

9. Finke (PS) - UFA

10. Benjamin (Opt Out) - UFA $1.1M

11. Jennings (PS) - C

12. Thompson - C $0.9M

Ooh, the WR group doesn't look too bad if you squint. I think Aiyuk is as close as we'll get to a "number 1 receiver" so let's put that discussion to bed. With Aiyuk and Deebo with have a solid 1-2,.. and then a lot of potential/questions/risk behind them.

Bourne is coming back, mark my words. The coaches really like him and he fights hard. He's pretty much at his ceiling now, border WR3, but that ok. He is more reliable than most fans give credit for. However, he may be a salary cap casualty if someone else wants him more - my gut tells me he'll work something with his agent to stay here. 

Richie James has done ok, nothing amazing - I'm not on the RJIOF bus, sorry. Jennings is raw but a rookie, he's still here next year. As is Hurd, with both massive potential and a hospital file longer than Wile E. Coyote, Kyle wants to see him play at least a few games before giving up. I think Taylor is gone however, he's lost his quickness and I can't see him getting back to 2017 Taylor. 

Carcrash may stick around as depth, don't think anyone else will pay him. I have no idea what's going on with White, do you? I feel we've put too much effort in to him to see him go. Then there's some more 'depth'... 

We'll draft a WR as we always do, but I don't expect it to be too high, a 4th maybe? If we lose Bourne, it may be a 3rd instead. 

Tight End:

1. Kittle - C $5.5m ($17.9m)

2. Reed - UFA

3. Dwelley - RFA

4. Woerner - C $0.8m ($0.1m)

5. Helm (PS) - UFA

This is where it starts getting more difficult. Kittle is a monster at passing and blocking. Reed is great at catching. Woerner is great at blocking (and another backup FB at a pinch). Dwelley's first name is Ross. Helm is great at cheering the others on. I really like Reed and want him to stay, but at what price? I'd much rather have him than Dwelley but this might be a tough call for Shanalynch in our cash strapped season. We do need 4 TEs though, so if Reed goes, then a cheaper vet or low draft pick/UDFA is likely unless they see Helm as that answer.

Running Back:

1. Mostert - C $3.3m ($0.5m)

2. Coleman - UFA

3. McKinnon - UFA

4. Wilson - RFA

5. Hasty - ERFA

6. Walter - ERFA

The good news? Mostert is on contract for next year. The bad news? Only Mostert is on contract for next year. Now Hasty and Walter are exclusive rights free agents, so I suspect they'll be back. Coleman is almost certainly gone after this season, he’s aging, not explosive, and oft-injured like so many others on this team.

There's an argument that we don't need Wilson and Hasty, but this year has proven otherwise. McKinnon has looked tired this year and I'm not sure he's earned a big paycheck for next season. He did this year on the cheap, I think he might try his luck elsewhere for more money but Kyle likes his catching ability and has been overly supportive of Jet's performances even during his struggles. If we can keep him on the cheap, great, but I can see us needing another RB body next year.

Fullback:

1. Juszczyk - UFA 

2. Hokit (PS) 

We need Jus to return, he's so fundamental to what we do and there's nobody else on the team who can replace him. They signed Hokit as a potential replacement down the line but with such a limited offseason this year, I don't think Kyle would be comfortable handing over the reins. Juice is expensive though - personally, I think he's worth it but we need to save money somewhere. Whether Paraag and Lynch can sort a team friendly deal out or not is the crux, Juice may be paid more elsewhere. I like having the best TE in football on one side of my QB with the best FB in football on the other.

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Special Teams:

K: Gould (Digger) - C (Club Option) $5.3m ($1.5m)

P: (Make A) Wishnowsky - C $1.0m ($0.4m)

LS: (Sergeant) Pepper - RFA

Sorry - had to make special teams more... special.  I think we'll keep the band together another year. Gould has a club option and is due $5m+ next year, which we can get cheaper. But what we have is ok and with bigger needs elsewhere I suspect it's left alone, certainly Wish and Pepper.

Thought it would be interesting to put the returners up - James has been solid in return, but nobody else has. With Taylor likely gone, possibly Jet too, who would you put as backup return man? Might be something we need of that new WR we might draft.

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Defense:

EDGE/Defensive End:

1. Bosa - C $9.3m ($19.8m)

2. Armstead - C $12.5m ($28.1m)

3. Ford - C $20.8m ($14.4m)

4. Blair - UFA

5. Hyder - UFA

6. Ansah - UFA

7. Willis - UFA

8. Jordan - UFA

9. Barrett (PS) 

Bosa stays obviously, but his health/fitness/prowess are in question after his bad ACL tear with reported cartilage damage. Armstead has been a tad disappointing this year, I haven't seen him jump off the screen once this year and I don't think he deserves his salary right now. I hope they readjust it. Ford is great but never available. Do we roll dice for another year or do we get rid? If I remember rightly, he has some dead money to consider, roughly $14m (i.e. is he worth the delta between salary and dead money?). Everyone else is a FA. I would suspect Blair to be back as a coach favorite (although Saleh might want him on his new team if he gets HC - I know that's not a common thing, but the timing might work). I think Hyder deserves another contract, as does Willis. But assuming Jordan and Ansah go, possibly Ford and maybe even Hyder if he gets a big offer elsewhere, we need a pass rusher next year, preferably a speed rusher. Round 1 or 2 for me, Bosa needs a counterpart and is himself not quite a sure thing as usual next year. 

Defensive Tackle:

1. Jones - UFA

2. Kinlaw - C $3.5m ($12.7m)

3. Thomas - UFA

4. Street - C $1.0m ($0.2m)

5. Givens - ERFA

6. Daniels (PS) 

7. Coatney (PS) 

8. Henry (PS) 

Onee year left of Street, he hasn't shined but he nearly killed Brees by landing his arm on him, so that alone will help keep him noticed. Solly... Poor Solly. I really feel for the guy as our coaches screwed him of 2 years development as a DT (he's not a DE, no matter what others may say). He lost his sister to suicide which was a significant mental challenge and this year he suffered ligament damage. He hasn't played to the level we hope a #3 pick would, but would you rather have him on your team over Street and the rest of the depth? As disappointing as he is, he's better than those players and we should offer an appropriate contract - he may get a better offer somewhere but he's valuable albeit recovering from a serious injury. DJ Jones is playing better than Thomas and perhaps will be the target FA. Either way, we'll likely keep Givens and at least one of those 2 guys, maybe a low draft pick but more likely a cheap vet pickup. 

Kinlaw is progressing fine. 

Linebacker:

1. Fred “Lord” Warner - C $1.2m ($0.3m)

2. Greenlaw - C $0.9m ($0.2m)

3. Al-Shaair - C $0.9m

4. Nzeocha - C $1.6m

5. Flannigan-Fowles (PS) - C $0.8m

6. Walker - UFA

7. Griffith (PS) 

Hey, the main guys are already on contract. Nzeocha is somewhat surplus to requirements though - did you know he earns more than Warner? No, thought you didn't (don't pretend). We forget Warner was such a low pick. We need to sort out Warner contract going forward though, so we need room down the line.

I would still draft a LB in the 4th-6th rounds though, as everyone other than Warner and Greenlaw are expendable. 

For The Niners @forthe9ers

Preliminary Fred Warner contract guess: This is the best LB in football and a perennial DPOY candidate in the future. He’s only 24 and is going to ask to be the highest paid LB in the league, and deserve it.

For The Niners @forthe9ers

Bobby Wagner, the current highest paid inside LB in football, got 3 years, $54 million, $40 million guaranteed and 18 million annually. Warner’s deal is both more long-term than that and also higher. A rough estimate would be something almost at 5 years, $95M, close to $100M.

Now it gets really interesting:

Strong Safety:

1. Tartt - UFA 

2. Harris - RFA

3. Cyprien (PS) - UFA 

Free Safety:

1. Ward - C $11m ($9.5m)

2. Moore - C $1.1m ($0.2m)

3. Mayden (PS)

Tale of two halves. Cyprien and Mayden both looked strong in preseason and neither have been poached. Would like to see them back. FS has Ward and Moore locked up, a pretty strong pairing and both are versatile to play SS or NB if needed. I, too, would like Moore to play more snaps but if we can sign him cheap on a FS2 contract then shift Ward off we'll get very good value. However, Moore deserves to be a starter somewhere and rewarded appropriately, in my opinion and Ward has a lot of dead money to move on. On the other side, we have no SS on contract. I don't think highly of Harris but the coaches see something in him (he did alright against Saints). It comes down to money and whether we can afford Tartt. We might lose one or two safeties this off season and should probably draft one on day 3 or test the FA market (SS are one of the cheapest positions so FA is better value than the draft - you want to hit your expensive positions there such as QB, EDGE, T, CB, WR).

Cornerback:

1. Sherman - UFA 

2. Moseley - ERFA

3. Verrett - UFA

4. Johnson - UFA

5. Webster - ERFA

6. Harris (PS) ~Motley (PS) 

7. Williams - UFA

8. Taylor - UFA 

Hands up if you can see a problem?

Ok, hands down. We have no rostered CB on contract for next year. Questions, do we we bring back Williams, one of the best NBs in the league? Is that an area to save money? Can Moore fill in (promoting Mayden to FS2)? Obviously, Williams was just suspended for 2 games and also happens to be aging.

Will Sherm come back and if so, will it be at CB? Is Witherspoon with a cheap contract? Has Verrett outplayed his place at the Niners (regardless of injury history, this year will set him up to have suitors with more cash)?

I have no idea what will happen, but I know we can't bring them all back and actually I wonder if it's a decision between Sherman and Verrett.

I'm certain we'll draft a CB, not sure where though, 3rd round maybe. If we resign some of our big players at other positions, we maybe be forced to draft CB higher to enable us to have a quality CB opposite Moseley next year (he'll be back). This is the area with the biggest unknown and very much a priority, with big decisions to make that may fundamentally change our CB look for the future, or even prevent a big FA (re-)signing at our other positions. Need to pay a lot of attention to the board coming out from Shanalynch, Sherm and Verrett the next couple of months. Plans are afoot.

Also, as an aside, I suspect we lose Saleh to a HC position, among with a position coach or two. This will have a big impact on our defense look next year, possibly our scheme and thus also our defensive player evaluation /scouting/priorities. For me, this will be a bigger factor for the Niners future success in the short term than the QB debate. In fact, knowing the risk and unknowns with our D may factor quite strongly in to our QB decisions. Hmm.

2021 Draft Needs

So, here's a recap of my expected draft needs, prioritized per ideal rounds to take them in, with all other roster spots filled with FA, resigns or UDFA:

1. EDGE / LT / QB / CB

2. QB / G / EDGE / CB

3. CB / G / QB / WR

4. WR / LB / S

5. LB / S / WR / CB-DB

6. S / TE / DT

7. TE / DT / G

Here's a recap of some of the biggest decisions Lynch, Shanahan and the team need to make going in to the off-season in the new year:

• Jimmy G's value for 2021/2022 and the QB strategy going forward.

• Can we afford a trade up in first round, noting needs at many positions?

• An extension for a top five offensive tackle in the game - Trent Williams.

• What is Weston Richburg’s future with this team? He’s often injured and even when on the field, not very impressive.

• Ford’s contract situation.

• Picking a DB. Every single 49ers corner hits FA this spring

• Who will Saleh’s replacement be… he is all but a lock to get a head coaching offer with his performance as a DC this season, under heavy pressure.

Hope you enjoyed my meanderings across the roster. I'll likely revisit in February as we approach the FA market and Draft day, noting how much can change in that time.

What are your thoughts on the Roster depth, off-season decisions and priorities for the team? Let me know in the comments.

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