48 hours: Injury Bug + Hindsight: Evaluating John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan as decision-makers - Part 1: 2017

Now in their 4th season at the helm, how have they fared in their personnel decisions?

Sep 19, 2020

San Francisco 49ers/YouTube - A throwback to Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch being hired.

The 49ers have been hit extremely hard by injuries for… forever, it feels like. While the Jets should not be a problem, there is definitely a chance the game could get competitive. Why?

Richard Sherman (OUT)
George Kittle (OUT)
Richie James Jr (OUT)
Dee Ford (questionable)
Jason Verrett (OUT)
Deebo Samuel (OUT)

That’s right folks. It took about 1 week for Dee Ford to get injured, but thankfully it is not a knee injury. He exited practice yesterday and did not practice today with neck tightness, which is definitely not a good sign considering how slow and stiff he looked Week 1. Kittle has been ruled out with his knee injury, as is Sherman with his calf. And the hamstring doom continues, as James Jr and Jason Verrett both are out with hamstring issues. The injury bug has already bitten and hard.

Thankfully, Brandon Aiyuk, Ben Garland, and newcomer Mohamed Sanu are expected to be fully ready and 100% for Sunday, which is a relief for the offense which struggled, badly, last Sunday. The 49ers will have to pressure Darnold from the inside, as Mekhi Becton, their rookie OT, will likely slow down Bosa. Becton is a monster already, if he gets his hands on you, it is a wrap. Look for Solomon Thomas, DJ Jones, and of course, Javon Kinlaw to be active on Sunday against a weak IOL. Sadly, the same goes for the 49ers while Weston Richburg is out. Hroniss Grasu was actually one of the best pass blockers on the 49ers on Sunday, which is hard to believe. Quinnen Williams might have a big game. The Jets run defense is tough - the only reason they were bad last game is because Josh Allen is a massive threat with his legs, which needless to say, Jimmy G is not. The passing game will need to be big, and it will be tough against this Gregg Williams defense with Marcus Maye patrolling the back-end.

One of the biggest developing storylines for the Jets is Jamison Crowder being out. The speedster being unavailable for Sunday means that Breshad Perriman, the former 1st round pick, will be required to have a big game. Sam Darnold can be easily rattled - the question is, can we get there? Armstead needs to bounce back as does the rest of the DL.

Around The NFL

Los Angeles Chargers C Mike Pouncey is out for the season with a hip injury - that team cannot avoid OL injuries at all.
On Thursday Night Football, Baker Mayfield found himself while completing 70% of his passes for 2 scores and 219 yards en route to a victory over the Bengals. He rekindled his connection with Odell Beckham Jr, who was the leading receiver in the game with 74 yards and a TD. Interestingly enough, reports right after the game suggested that OBJ is still on the trade market - suspiciously good timing.

Get Up @GetUpESPN

.@diannaESPN says that the possibility of the Browns trading OBJ has "not been taken off the table." "During the offseason there were definitely serious conversations in the organization about perhaps looking at the option of trading Odell Beckham Jr."

The Cardinals signed Mike Nugent to their practice squad. Veteran kicker, he was the longtime kicker for the Bengals from 2010 to 2016.
CJ Anderson, Broncos hero and journeyman RB, announced his retirement at 29.
CJ Uzomah, the talented Bengals TE who was Joe Burrow’s favorite target yesterday, tore his achilles and is out for the season. A massive blow.
The Rams signed Robert Woods, the consistent and elite former Bills WR, to a 4 year, $65 million extension. I think cap space is a myth.

At the end of this season, it will mark the first 4 years of the Shanalynch regime. And by all accounts, it has been a massive success. After all, these two inexperienced, but talented leaders took an organization with a terrible roster, a terrible locker room, and a terrible culture, and re-instilled the winning mentality, team-oriented philosophy, and attitude that the 49ers are supposed to be. In just their 3rd season, they built a Super Bowl roster and were very close to winning it.

There has been time to evaluate this team - it’s time to evaluate the decision makers as well. And although we have the massive benefit of hindsight, it does not change things.

Let’s go chronologically, starting with the first decisions that this team made.

2017:

Free Agency (major decisions):

Pierre Garcon - 5 years, $47.5 million ($20 million guaranteed)
Malcolm Smith - 5 years, $26.5 million ($11.5 million guaranteed)
Kyle Juszczyk - 4 years, $21 million ($9.75 million guaranteed)
Brian Hoyer - 2 years, $12 million ($9.85 million guaranteed)
Elvis Dumervil - 2 years, $8 million ($1.5 million guaranteed)

I really don’t know what any of these signings meant or why. Really, the Garcon and Smith contracts were terrible in hindsight, and having outs for those contracts was a blessing. Garcon was 31 at the time, and we gave him 20 million guaranteed… really bad. He played in 16 total games over 2 seasons before being cut. Malcolm Smith was also a bad contract, coming over from Oakland at the time. We know the story with Hoyer. Juszczyk and Dumervil were really good signings, Juice was a bit overpaid for a FB but nevertheless has been great. This entire FA period felt like Lynch and Shanahan just threw money at whoever they wanted - and it continued in the draft.

Draft:

3. Solomon Thomas
31. Reuben Foster
66. Ahkello Witherspoon
104. CJ Beathard
121. Joe Williams
146. George Kittle
177. Trent Taylor
198. DJ Jones
202. Pita Taumoepenu
229. Adrian Colbert

This draft was brutal. There’s no beating around the bush - at the time it looked great, right now terrible - and that’s with George Kittle. It’s hard to believe a draft with a future HOFer is bad, but man. Lynch had a stroke of genius, trading down 1 spot and getting two 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick back. One of those 3rd round picks became Fred Warner - the other… Alvin Kamara. Hurts. Badly, especially when we picked Joe Williams in the next round and he never played a regular season snap for the 49ers. Brutal.

Trading up for Foster at the time felt amazing, especially with how well he played his rookie season, but there was a reason 30 teams passed on him - and it came back to bite us. Trent Taylor was looking like a good pick but injuries have turned him into an unknown at best.

Beathard was by far the worst pick here - Solomon Thomas was a good pick for the league’s worst run defense. I don’t blame Lynch then and I don’t blame him now. Overdraft? Yes. Bad pick? No. But trading up for CJ Beathard in the 3rd round was absolutely brutal - if not for his draft pedigree, Beathard would be off the team.

DJ Jones was the 2nd best pick in the draft for the 49ers - he has been plagued with injuries but when healthy is a wrecking ball in the middle of the defense. Ahkello Witherspoon still has a chance but as each game goes on it gets slimmer - he looks like a bad pick at this point, especially with Shaquill Griffin on the board. Pita T was a bet that did not work out, Taumoepenu never was able to make an impact on the field. Adrian Colbert was a good pick - He has bounced around since being released, but for the first season, Colbert looked like a rising star at FS. Sad to see his downfall.

UDFA:

Matt Breida
Kendrick Bourne

If you trick your mind into thinking we drafted Breida in the 4th, and Bourne in the 5th, this draft looks much better. But one of the best traits of this regime is their consistent ability to find talent in the later rounds and UDFA - in this case, Breida, who the 49ers flipped for a mid round pick this year. Breida was a great RB for a couple years in this offense. Bourne is the longest tenured 49er receiver, somehow making it through all of the roster turnover, trades, and signings with his work ethic and dancing. No really, Bourne has become a trusted receiver of Jimmy’s because of his route running and ability to make tough catches.

Summary:

This year was easily the worst year that this regime has had - and it makes sense because it was their 1st year. But the bad decisions made in that year can still be seen today: there is a direct correlation between Reuben Foster to DeForest Buckner. How? If Foster had never been released, Kwon Alexander is never signed, meaning the 49ers then have enough money to sign Buckner to an extension.

Similarly, taking Thomas at #3 was brutal when considering the talent in that now stacked 2017 draft - QBs alone, Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore, Christian McCaffrey, and more all went in the same range. Rough.

But this year was vastly improved upon in following years which will be looked at tomorrow. Sadly, it also shows a troubling trend of overpays and overdrafts by this regime - I’ve said this many times. While you can’t really complain as they built a Super Bowl roster, you can see the effects of their bad decisions - and how they have not gone away since then. Bad habits of routinely overvaluing players and undervaluing others have plagued this team.

There is no question that Shanahan and Lynch know how to identify players and talent. The problem is, as good as they are at that, they are also not polished in how to go about in acquiring said talent. There is a lot of room for improvement - which can actually be taken as a positive - even with these issues, they constructed a Super Bowl roster. But those problems will haunt us with the offseason next year, which I have already mentioned is shaping up to be brutal. The 49ers will have a maximum of about 18 to 20 million dollars in cap space, even after reconstructing contracts.

Our free agents next year include but are not limited to:

Trent Williams
Richard Sherman
Jaquiski Tartt
K’Waun Williams
Solomon Thomas
Kyle Juszczyk
Jerick McKinnon
Jason Verrett
Ahkello Witherspoon
Trent Taylor
DJ Jones
Emmanuel Moseley
Nick Mullens
Tevin Coleman

That is almost 10 of our 22 starters - brutal.

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