Breaking down every Trey Lance play from Week 1 of preseason
The young QB had a lot of positives and some negatives. A play-by-play breakdown of his performance from Saturday.
Santa Clara, CA - A stat line of 5/14, with 128 yards and 1 TD doesn’t seem very impressive. Indeed, rookie QB Trey Lance had his fair share of struggles. But the overall takeaway when diving into the film is that Lance had a good performance with room to improve, and was not helped out by his supporting cast at all. Let’s dive into each play.
Lance’s first pass attempt should have been a completion for a first down, nevertheless, let’s break it down. The initial read, and where Lance hesitates twice to throw it to, is Trent Sherfield at the top of the screen. This was a play that was clearly designed to go deep, a gutsy play call by Kyle Shanahan for his young QB, but one that might indicate his already growing confidence in the signal-caller from North Dakota State. Lance hesitates because with the MIKE LB backpedaling towards Sherfield after being drawn in by the play-fake, Lance would have to throw it with touch over the LB, but get it there before the safety arrives. It would have been a tough throw. Lance then rolls out, and Aiyuk does a great job of moving with his QB and making himself available. Indeed, he should have caught this ball, but this was was a positive play, no doubt about it. Yes, Aiyuk had three guys near him, but he was open, and this was the correct decision.
The first of four sacks that Lance took all afternoon, there are things that went wrong both on the OL side and the QB side.
This blitz is picked up. 6 rushers, 6 blockers back. Raheem Mostert picks up the initial LB blitz, and Laken Tomlinson (is supposed to) slides over to pick up the delayed LB blitz. Unfortunately, things don’t always go as planned. Chris Jones beats Daniel Brunskill in the a-gap, and it doesn’t help that Brunskill, who was already losing the rep, tripped on Trey Sermon’s foot. Tomlinson looks to his left, expecting another blitzed, but the man he's supposed to pick up is on the right side instead. We don’t know who was responsible for protection on this play, but the OL messed up here.
The QB side of things comes with the below freeze frame:
Lance’s first progression is the curl route by Charlie Woerner over the middle. Because he operated under the assumption that the blitz was picked up, he looked there first. But when Lance, in the above freeze frame - recognizes that he’s got Chris Jones barreling towards him and also recognizes that Woerner isn’t getting open, he needs to hit his hot route, in this case, Jauan Jennings over the middle on a drag route. Although there’s a good chance that Jennings doesn’t get the first down anyways, this is a play where Lance just needs to get rid of it. Instead, he tries to rely on his athleticism to elude Jones. Against college defenders, this works - not against an All-Pro defensive tackle like Jones. It’s a learning experience for Lance, and the responsibility for this sack mostly falls on the OL - but there is room for improvement on this play for Lance. It’s tough for him to react that quickly, but it’s possible although not to be expected from a rookie however.
This play was part of a recurring theme with Lance all game - he consistently tried to look for more, which is a welcome sight, but only when measured. Lance should have been content to take his hot route, but didn’t recognize that he should have got there sooner.
The play that had everyone buzzing, this is just a beautiful throw from Lance. It’s not much more to say on this play, they start out on a two-TE set, the boundary side TE pulls and acts as a blocker so this isn’t a naked bootleg. Aiyuk gets open on a crossing route over the middle. Most QBs, including yes, Jimmy Garoppolo, take that throw and make that throw. And that’s a good choice. But Lance recognizes that Sherfield has inside leverage on his man, meaning that when he cuts to the right, he’ll have green ahead of him. He also sees that one of the safeties responsible for that half of the field is biting on Sherfield’s route, believing it to be going to the left side of the field (Lance’s left). So Lance waits a bit longer, and delivers a dime to Sherfield, in stride, who then turns up field for the easy score. This play was executed to perfection, and this ball traveled around 49 yards in the air and got there in a hurry. You cannot ask for better.
This is why the 49ers picked Lance. Garoppolo cannot make this throw. That’s not a bad thing - Garoppolo takes the throw to Aiyuk and makes it. In fact, most QBs do that, and most QBs don’t have the arm talent to throw this ball either. It’s more of a representation of Lance’s plutonium-grade talent.
This play falls squarely on Lance in terms of sack responsibility. The weirdest part is, Lance did everything right up until… well, he took the sack. Lance motions Gallman outwide, who runs a quick slant. This is the hot route, Lance had correctly identified the blitz and that it would also be vacating the middle of the field - recognizing Cover 0 and moving to an empty set to get the ball out quick and maximize yards after catch.
Yet… instead of hitting his RB who he just motioned, Lance instead waits on Dwelley, likely the first progression in the original play design. Once he recognizes Dwelley didn’t get open, he moves to Gallman and begins his throwing motion, but then tucks it, fearing that he’d fumble the ball while being hit. Indeed, Lance could have thrown this ball, there was a bit of time left, but instead, he decided to play it safe. This is on Lance, but there are still positives - recognizing the blitz, setting a hot-route. He just needs to hit it, and hit it earlier.
It may also be interesting to some that this isn’t a new thing for Lance, in college, he made this mistake a couple of times as well - recognizing, but not throwing a wide-open slant over the middle and instead looking down the sidelines for the big play.
Steve Spagnuolo did not spare Trey Lance at all this game. The Chiefs rotate one of the safeties into the lower middle zone while rotating what looks to be a slot corner into playing a deep half/third zone (depends on what the field side (upper for this view) corner is playing, and it’s hard to tell if he’s playing a third in Cover 3 or not playing a deep third at all, which would be Cover 2). Spags brought out his bag of tricks, and this play wasn't working from the beginning - there’s no QB in the league that gets a first down on this play, at least with original play design. Lance recognizes the heat coming from his right, slides over and hits his hot route quickly. The correct decision, Lance gets a few more yards to make it an easier FG for his kicker. This was a great play by the Chiefs defense. It doesn’t help that Aaron Banks gets absolutely smoked by someone who’s not even Chris Jones.
Not a tough throw by any means, but Lance does have to get it over the LB that was in his throwing lane. He hits Woerner in stride for a 30 yard chunk gain - this isn’t even a great route by Woerner, the DB is just off balance. Lance had Jennings on the lower route as well, but made the correct choice. Good play by Lance, although there’s some wasted movement with his footwork in his drop - something that Shanahan alluded to in his press conference today. When the protection held up, Lance was quite good on Saturday.
This play is so impressive for a multitude of reasons. One, great rep by the Kansas City defense, especially #51 who doesn’t bite on the run and instantly pressures Lance on the naked bootleg. This is Russell Wilson-esque. Nobody is open on this play, as the intermediate crosser (likely the primary read) has been taken away, as has the checkdown. There isn’t enough space to tuck it and run.
Lance makes an outstanding play, throwing it across his body to the far side of the field, and putting the ball in a spot where only River Cracraft could get it. This ball is delivered intentionally where Cracraft has to come back to the ball - if Lance tries to throw this directly to Cracraft (or even if Cracraft had to come back to the ball a little bit, instead of a couple of steps), this is a pick-six that KC walks in. But Lance’s arm talent and accuracy get the ball there. Unfortunately, this ball was a wobbler, which would be expected when throwing off-balance and across your body, but the fact that he gave Cracraft a very good chance of catching this ball is great in itself.
Now, Lance will also kick himself watching this in the film-room? Why? As good of a play that he had made, there was a bigger one if he had simply looked to his right, and found an open Trey Sermon sneaking up the sideline. Again, outstanding play by Lance to give Cracraft a shot, but this is one of the plays he could have been referring to when he said that he left plays on the field.
Cover 1, there was basically one place that Lance could realistically go with this ball, everything else covered. On 3rd and 9, you’d prefer to go past the sticks, but hitting this out route on time and on target gave Cracraft a chance to dive for it. The 49ers missed the first by a yard, but this is another very good throw and good decision by Lance. He gets the ball out quick, on time, and delivers an on-target pass. It looks to be his first progression as well, meaning that this play was designed to be prior to the sticks and have the WR try to get the first using his legs.
This is a gorgeous throw and one that really accentuates just how talented Trey Lance is. It’s pinpoint accuracy, placed directly on the helmet of the WR which is exactly what QBs are coached to do on these types of throws. Lance had pressure bearing down on him and stood tall, delivering a strike. The velocity is on full display. This was the correct read on 3rd and long, but it’s possible that Lance also could have hit Charlie Woerner running a dig over the middle. Either way, a laser beam that should have been a catch under any circumstance. It’s these types of drops that get players cut.
Cover 3 in a dime look by the Chiefs defense, this time there’ s no fancy disguise or rotation. Lance gets to his third progression and fires an absolute rocket to Richie James Jr on a dig route over the middle… and James could have caught this. Yes, the pass was a bit high, and yes, the pass was a little ahead of James too. But this pass was short armed by James, and it’s another thing that coaches will instantly notice during a rewatch and factor in when thinking about roster spots. James didn’t put full effort into catching this ball.
Lance takes advantage of the MIKE LB dropping super low instead of filling the middle of the field, which left James open. If this is Brandon Aiyuk, it’s a snag. This pass falling incomplete is both Lance and James Jr’s fault, but James carries more of the blame on this incompletion. There’s no tip-toeing around it, this was a cut-worthy performance by James Jr, and it’s carried over in training camp too - James Jr has routinely shown up in the “dropped a pass” column.
More than a bad throw by Lance (we’ll get to that in a second), this is just an absolutely elite rep by Chiefs DB DeAndre Baker. The Chiefs show single high and then rotate to a variation of Cover 4 post snap. Based on the pre-snap read, the correct throw is the sail route that Lance ends up throwing. Here’s where things go wrong:
DeAndre Baker breaks on the route from underneath and gets a hand on it, and if this ball was thrown with less velocity, it’s probably an interception. This is just special by Baker… he stays with the lower route (this is a smash concept, so Lance is actually reading Baker himself) for a long time, waiting until Lance takes the bait, thinking that he’s got a free throw to the TE. As soon as he sees Lance begin his motion, he passes the underneath route off to the LB (so that route is out of the picture) and breaks on the ball and makes an elite play. This is perfect defense, and indeed, there's no other place Lance can throw this ball other than the sail route to Dwelley. If the pass was thrown with more anticipation, this could have been completed, and Lance gets baited into a rookie mistake, waiting too long and trying to rely on his elite arm talent to get the ball there. Most QBs will get baited into this throw, it’s elite coverage. For a more educated breakdown of this play by someone smarter than me, look to former NFL DB Eric Crocker.
In the regular season, when everyone is covered to perfection like in this play, I believe Lance will look to extend and use his legs. And Lance had a wide-open lane to take off. It’s heavily been insinuated that the 49ers explicitly instructed Lance to play from the pocket and not use his legs on Saturday - there should be no questioning Lance’s rushing ability, a 1100 yard rusher at NDSU.
But at the end of the day, this was a turnover-worthy play. But as many point out, this type of defense fools many QBs.
Woerner runs a dig, and based on the cushion that Lance sees initially, he correctly believes that the route will get open. However, another good rep by the KC DB causes things to go wrong. #24 is playing catch technique, which basically means that he’s jamming the receiver in the open field, to disrupt the route and timing. Indeed, this causes Lance to hesitate, and pressure surrendered by Aaron Banks doesn’t allow Lance to step into throw, leading to an inaccurate ball.
One of the main areas I think Lance can improve on is throwing platforms - he needs to be able to throw from more than a couple of platforms and angles, if he was able to do so, I think this pass is complete.
Another issue is that Lance should have either tried to extend or look elsewhere after he realizes that the Woerner dig was messed up. To his left, he could have found Jauan Jennings with a step on an out-route - a tough throw, but one with a higher probability than the tight coverage that Woerner was playing against. Wrong read and inaccurate throw, but he was under pressure.
Lance was in trouble from the start. Moore gets beat right off the snap and I think he was expecting a chip block from Charlie Woerner… which he did not get. In addition, Aaron Banks gets beat to the edge after initially standing his ground, leaving Lance with little choice but to take a sack. The veteran move would have been to try and spike this ball near the RB who’s on a flat route, but the issue is that the Chiefs DL is already in that throwing lane by the time Lance rolls right. There are very few QBs that do not get sacked here.
In addition, Kansas City once again rotates on their back end, sending their LB to play a half and having one of their safeties drop into intermediate coverage. Spagnuolo spared little sympathy for the rookie quarterback, and this is a valuable learning experience for Lance - most regular season defenses don’t play this many disguised coverages and rotations.
Aaron Banks struggled all game, and no play shows it better than this. He gets obliterated by the defensive tackle. There’s no chance for Lance to even get this ball out, and this isn’t a blitz where Lance failed to recognize the pressure and hit his hot route. Lance is looking at the out route to Warner. He’s essentially blindsided because of his angle that he’s looking Banks gets beat. This sack is not on Lance.
Yet another disguised coverage, the Chiefs rotate from a clear single high look to Cover 2. Lance takes a hit after the left side collapses, but is able to hit his checkdown correctly and on time to get positive yardage. Not much else to see here, but a good play by Lance - one that is expected though.
This was Lance’s worst play of the game. Once again, another rotation from a single high look to a Cover 2 look. Lance should have taken either check down on both sides, but tried to force a ball to Jauan Jennings over the middle. This is the adjustment of game-speed at full display, in college, his velocity was enough to get the ball there before this window closed. Lance also seemed to drop too deep, nearly 10 yards, and needed a hitch before he threw this. It was late and a bad decision, and should have been an interception. Jennings could have worked back towards the ball, but this is on Lance.
I was not able to get all-22 for the 2nd half, so the final two plays have to be in broadcast angle, but luckily there is not much to see. There’s only two reads on this play, and one is clearly covered. Lance does a great job of sidestepping the rusher and getting this ball out to the correct guy, but it is inaccurate and he doesn’t give Benjamin a chance at this ball. Still, there’s no hot route on this play, so this isn’t a very negative play considering the pressure he was under. Lance knew he had a one on one when he saw the left DB with his back turned, and a good route run would get Benjamin some separation.
Quick slant to Benjamin, and on further inspection, this pass did hit Benjamin in both hands. It’s tight coverage, but this is an accurate throw. One read, not much else to say here - Lance can’t throw it anywhere else realistically.
Overall, this was a strong performance from Lance considering context. He had his fair share of mistakes, but nothing that isn’t expected from a rookie. Steve Spagnuolo really challenged Lance, and Lance was able to somewhat hold his own, at least til a rough ending to the first half. Despite being under heavy pressure and not being helped out by his WRs, this was a good debut. Lance clearly can work on quicker recognition of when to go to the hot route, and I’d really like to see him work on different arm angles to throw from, as they help when under pressure and not being able to step into throws. There were plays left on the field however, and he’s got a lot of room to grow, but this was an encouraging debut.
Many thanks for the excellent article, my impression about Lance's performance is KS put him in the worse challenging situations, playing against his weakness without any "comfort zone", and he made it intentionally in order to work with him about the bad things. I think it is a correct approach at this stage, and I can't wait to see in the next game if there are some steps ahead. My concern is this is good for Trey now, but going into the season both Trey and Jimmy would need the same things in practice (like reps with starters), and obviously playing time in real games. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see very difficult correctly develop Trey and keep Jimmy in the best conditions at the same time during the regular season. However this seems the way chosen by the CS so we can only see what will happen.
This article and Lance’s performance left me satisfied and smiling…