The volatility of Jimmy Garoppolo defines the 49ers. Can he continue to reduce it as the 49ers near the playoffs?
Inconsistency means good and bad. Sometimes, even from one play to the next, Garoppolo can go from bad to brilliant. Can he reduce the bad moments when it matters?
Little needs to be said about the QB situation surrounding the 49ers right now. Jimmy Garoppolo is playing good football and the 49ers are winning. But in the past few weeks, even as the focus remains on Garoppolo’s efficiency and short to intermediate accuracy which he’s always done, instead the focus should be on what Garoppolo is doing different.
Even with the occasional mistake, even with fundamentally similar football to what he played in 2019, Garoppolo is making tougher throws as of late. These flashes of brilliance often accompany bad plays and mistakes. But the flashes of brilliance will be key if the 49ers are to make a serious playoff run. Garoppolo’s volatility is the reason the 49ers remain an inconsistent offense. Let’s break down some of his best plays, and some of his worst plays from the past three weeks - and why what he has done of late is so important.
Seattle is playing some variation of Cover 1 Robber, and credit to the Seattle secondary on this play - they played it virtually perfectly. Jamal Adams drifts into the middle, taking away the in route from Kittle who then has to relocate. Kittle was already tightly covered by his man.
At the top of the screen, all three WRs are well covered. Even against man coverage, Jennings fails to get separation on his whip route.
Sherfield can’t win off the line against DJ Reed and Reed shuts him down - not to mention that Quandre Diggs would have been able to break on that 15 yard dig even if Sherfield got separation at the top of his route - Garoppolo doesn’t have the arm to zing that in there.
Aiyuk goes vertical and does get some separation, but Garoppolo hesitates to lay it out there towards the sideline even with the window - instead opting to hold the ball.
Eventually, Garoppolo panics as he’s now under pressure and tries to get rid of it to Kittle, who is double covered and not open or anywhere near the first down marker.
Four things went wrong on this play.
None of the man-beater routes actually worked.
Garoppolo didn’t try to throw the deep ball to Aiyuk. Is it a tough throw? Yes. It’s also a throw that you have to try. There was space to throw it here, and in most cases this ends up incomplete.
Garoppolo failed to extend the play with his legs.
Garoppolo failed to look to his right - in this case, Kyle Juszczyk who does get open against Bobby Wagner. Is it understandable that Garoppolo didn’t look there, knowing Wagner was in coverage? Yes. It doesn’t make it excusable.
A multitude of things went wrong here, but the OL held up for a while, Brandon Aiyuk did get separation downfield, and Kyle Juszczyk did as well. This is on Garoppolo, Jennings, and Sherfield.
Just as Garoppolo had a bad play before, he has a perfect play here. A quick glance to the left told Garoppolo that Juice would not be getting open on a quick route to the inside over the middle. Mitchell is covered out of the backfield for his checkdown, and Aiyuk fails to get open on the whip route against Jamal Adams in the slot - initially where Garoppolo is looking, and correctly as pre-snap matchups clearly would favor Aiyuk against Adams who struggles in man coverage.
Garoppolo then looks at Trent Sherfield and almost pulls the trigger… but does (at least on this specific play) what separates great QBs from good ones. He doesn't take the throw to Sherfield which would have gotten six or more yards. Garoppolo presumably feels Quandre Diggs cheating and coming up, which means that the middle of the field and behind him is open - open for Kittle to run right through it.
Garoppolo is a bit late to throw it, but nevertheless throws a strike to Kittle who gets both feet in for one of his career-best 6 TDs this season. Credit should also go to the 49ers OL for keeping the pocket squeaky clean on this play, but Garoppolo, not Kittle - was the reason for this TD.
Let’s fast forward to later in the game.
The “bad” and “good” Jimmy joke? It isn’t a joke. Garoppolo is incredibly volatile. This was as bad of a play as you can ask for considering every target not named George Kittle is open.
Garoppolo still throws it to Kittle who is double-covered. The throw is off-target to add insult to injury, a high throw that perfectly lands in Quandre Diggs’ hands.
Ideally, this ball lands in the hands of Trent Sherfield, who is coming wide-open on Garoppolo’s left downfield. Sherfield could have a TD if he gets the ball. Fine, it doesn’t go to Sherfield. Aiyuk has good separation on a comeback - he does not get the ball. Garoppolo has both check downs open as well, and either would have gotten good yardage. The fact is that Kittle wasn’t open even if one ignores the second defender. This is a complete failure to actually read the defense.
But just as Garoppolo has a bad play, he comes back later in the game with a great one.
The anticipation on this throw is nothing short of elite. The placement on this throw is nothing short of elite. Garoppolo finds the soft spot in the zone and exploits it with a perfect throw, from the far side of the field to the opposite side downfield. This is the exact type of throw that Garoppolo has struggled to both attempt and complete - and it’s incredibly encouraging to see that he’s still confident enough to do it at times. Garoppolo could have taken his safety blanket in Kittle, who was open for a short gain, but opted for the correct decision. This is a throw that if consistently made, will win you playoff games. Even with Garoppolo’s physical limitations especially apparent on sideline throws and throws downfield, him being able to make this throw even occasionally would be integral in keeping defenses honest.
Again, a positive play from Garoppolo and one that will be something that he consistently has to replicate. In the playoffs, expect the time he spends under duress to skyrocket. Garoppolo’s strong play since Week 8 hasn’t gone unnoticed, but he’s done it largely under very good to near-perfect circumstances both in his trio of weapons (Kittle, Samuel, and Aiyuk) and with strong OL play. In the playoffs, this won’t remain true and Garoppolo will. need to make plays under pressure and off-schedule for the 49ers to survive. Plays like the above, where Garoppolo goes through his progressions, delivers an on-target ball that protects his receiver from a hit, and does so while being hit.
Let’s jump to the Cincinnati game, which was perhaps even more volatile of a performance from Garoppolo in comparison with Seattle.
Garoppolo was very… uninspiring for most of this game. This throw is the most extreme example. Let’s start with the protection here - Cincy rushes four guys and the Niners have 6 guys blocking. Garoppolo should know that he has time here. Regardless of that, Garoppolo decides to make a late, inaccurate throw to the outside of the numbers which should have been intercepted and possibly returned for a TD. One of the first rules of QBing - never throw late to the outside. Garoppolo violates it here. To be fair, there isn’t much that’s going to work on this play in general, but with the time he had, he should try to improvise knowing that throw is one that he already struggles with, and knowing it isn’t open anyways.
But just 5 plays later, Garoppolo throws an absolute dime to George Kittle downfield and outside the numbers into tight coverage - the exact throw that he struggles with the most. This is one of Garoppolo’s best throws of his career, falling incomplete only due to the defensive back holding one of George Kittle’s arms down. Attempting this throw is good. Actually making it is great, and even though Garoppolo just doesn’t do it enough, it’s great to see that he still has the confidence and ability to do so. There is nobody open on this play, he just straight throws Kittle open. Perfect. Great deep ball accuracy.
It’s almost comical how volatile Garoppolo’s general play is, that it swings from one extreme to another within the same game. Travis Benjamin should be walking into the end zone if this ball is placed correctly to the outside and ahead him. Benjamin is pushing towards the sideline, but Garoppolo places it inside and behind Benjamin where it allows the DB back into the play to break this up. This is the correct read but it is inaccurate placement. This is on Garoppolo.
Again, Garoppolo is bailed out both on a bad decision and bad throw. Deebo Samuel comes back to the ball and prevents a pass-break up here, and so some may see the outcome and consider this a good play. The issue is what Garoppolo left on the table. As soon as Garoppolo sees #22 at the bottom of the screen stay with Samuel, Garoppolo needs to let this rip to Aiyuk who is wide-open, and only has to beat one man to get to the end zone here. This is a terrible read and a bad throw, and it shows the worst of Garoppolo at times - staring down targets and not looking downfield nearly enough.
Then Garoppolo comes back with an absolute laser to George Kittle while going through multiple progressions and under a bit of pressure from his right side. This is absolutely perfect. The right read, a laser across his body to the far side outside the numbers, that allows Kittle to dive for the pylon and score here. Aiyuk does not get open on his whip route, Deebo does not get open on his crosser, and neither does Jennings (?) on his crosser on the other side. The two crossers often cause defenders to get tangled up with each other, leading either one of Deebo or Jennings to get separation, but in this case, Cincinnati’s defense plays it well. But Garoppolo stays composed despite the play seemingly not working early on, and finds Kittle coming open as he pushes towards the pylon. Perfect.
Garoppolo’s best trait continues to be his ability to get the ball out under pressure. That does not mean he’s a great QB under pressure, when Garoppolo is faced with making a decision and the pocket is also collapsing at the same time, he certainly has his share of good and bad plays. But when there’s an unblocked rusher and Garoppolo’s decision is already defined, there are very few QBs that have the ability to get the ball out like he does. Ideally, Juszczyk picks up this pressure and Garoppolo has a little more time. This is what good QBs do.
Aiyuk does not get open over the middle, meaning Garoppolo now has to fit it into a tight window back-shoulder throw, downfield, outside the numbers. This is a throw he struggles with, but here, he throws an absolute dime to Jauan Jennings who shows off his contested catch ability as well. Bengals play one safety deep again, Garoppolo has to get it there before the safety can come over to help. This is a great throw and the correct decision made.
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the ATL game.
Garoppolo’s biggest strength is his quick release and his decisiveness in the quick game. It’s also a curse - Garoppolo misses Kittle wide-open over the middle, and Kittle easily gains a first down in this case. There are so many plays that Garoppolo leaves on the field for the easier plays, for the simple ones - that’s not a bad thing. It’s why he’s been so efficient as of late. But efficient play does not always mean winning play.
Garoppolo when decisive and in rhythm is a good QB. There’s no doubt. Here, he gets the ball to Kittle over the middle whereas no other route on this play had any chance of getting open. This is his quick recognition and quick release again coming into play, even without elite ball velocity, Garoppolo gets it there on time. This is not a hospital ball, a hospital ball is when an inaccurate ball causes a bad hit when it was avoidable. The safety going low doesn’t change that there was nowhere else this ball could have gone, it was good placement, fit between the LB and both safeties.
There’s no doubt that Garoppolo has had one of his stronger stretches of play as of late. That doesn’t mean that he’s back to “2017” Garoppolo as some have insinuated. He still largely demonstrates many of the weaknesses that led the 49ers to spend three first round picks and a third round pick on Trey Lance.
But one thing is certain - Garoppolo has been more aggressive with the football in recent weeks. This is also paired with him making throws that he’s seldom made in his career - especially deep throws and throws outside the numbers. Tight-window throws, back-shoulder throws, all of these have been missing from the offense from quite some time and it’s made the 49ers offense a lot easier to defend. Garoppolo making these throws even occasionally, which he has done in recent weeks, is massive for the 49ers playoff effort because it’s the threat more than the actual play that matters - if defenses know that Garoppolo will actually throw it outside the numbers, or will throw the back-shoulder ball, they will have to account for it, even slightly. Those “big-time” throws are what win you games in the playoffs, especially in such a pass-happy league where you will have to throw it to get far in the playoffs. What the 49ers did in 2019 was amazing, riding a dominant run game, dominant defense, and very good passing offense to the Super Bowl.
But did they win? No, they lost to a team that won making the exact “big-time” throws that this offense has lacked. Especially with Aaron Rodgers playing at such a high level, with Tom Brady now in the conference, the 49ers need confidence from their QB1, they need him to be able to make these throws.
Garoppolo has never been that QB to make these throws consistently. Don’t expect that to change. But if he continues to gain confidence and make these throws occasionally, even that will be integral in a playoff run. The 49ers cannot take their foot off the gas (pass) pedal now. They need to continue to throw it, both frequently and aggressively. It’s a dangerous game, but they cannot afford to have Garoppolo fall out of rhythm as he did near the end of 2019 regular season and into the 2019 playoffs. In fact, it must be the opposite, Garoppolo needs to continue to improve for them to stand a fighter’s chance in the playoffs. They may not need it from Garoppolo. But they should make sure they are ready to trust him to make these throws if need be.
The volatility of Jimmy Garoppolo defines the 49ers. Can he continue to reduce it as the 49ers near the playoffs?
Let's go good jimmy
Profetic, after the Titans loss. We don't play a talented rookie QB because he would limit the playbook, and we play a limited veteran QB who needs to limit the playbook. It is too late, the season (sadly) is almost over and I only hope next year will be different. There is still room for a miracle, six perfect games in a row. Not what we saw from Jimmy very often.