Stat Analysis: The Philadelphia Eagles are a tougher opponent than you might think.
What do the advanced stats tell us about the Philadelphia Eagles?
Ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Eagles at Philadelphia, the 49ers are still reeling from the loss of two key starters. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is giddy after their young QB, Jalen Hurts, started off with a bang and was very good against the Falcons. The Eagles may present more of a challenge than previously thought - but how was their performance quantified against the Falcons? Can it continue? And what should 49ers fans expect?
What does the Eagles offense present?
The main issue the Eagles offense presents is their personnel - they match up very well with the 49ers defense. The Eagles offensive line is outstanding, lining up pro-bowlers at three of five spots on their OL. Lane Johnson is a top-five right tackle, Brandon Brooks is a top-five right guard, and Jason Kelce is a top-five center. Their left tackle, Jordan Mailata, has quickly risen and was just given a large extension because he’s turned into a star at left tackle, although not been recognized for it yet.
They were very good in the run-game, Miles Sanders gashed the ATL offense all afternoon and is a dynamic, explosive RB. If the Eagles establish the running game early, watch out - and they will have that ability with their top 5 offensive line. With their entire right-side from the center onwards being top 5 players at their respective positions, the Eagles are also well-equipped to straight up run it away from Nick Bosa and force Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw to shoot gaps and come to the RB, rather than wait for the RB in their gaps. Arik Armstead and his performance against Lane Johnson will be an X-factor in this game.
The Eagles OL allowed pressures on just 17.9% of passes, albeit playing a lackluster Falcons DL (still, the Falcons have both Grady Jarrett and Dante Fowler who are very good players. Jarrett is a top five defensive tackle in football).
For reference, that was the the 4th lowest pressure rate allowed in Week 1. Sure, the Falcons DL isn’t the best, but that’s still outstanding protection. It doesn’t help that Jalen Hurts is one of the mobile QBs in the league, very good at extending plays with his legs and making throws on the move. It’s going to be hard to bring down Hurts, especially against a quick pass oriented offense.
Perfect play-call and execution. Atlanta is playing Cover 1 and sending one of their LBs on a blitz. Hurts knows that he’s got a one on one with every defender, and all he has to do is avoid the deep free safety. The rub route that Ertz runs is a man-beater, essentially, as soon as Hurts saw it was man coverage, his mind was made up on where the ball would be going. Smith gets to the pylon and the throw is perfectly placed for the score as even the best slot corner isn’t going to be able to guard someone like Smith in combination with the help of a rub route. #22 had no chance. Because the route was going to the corner, the safety had no chance of getting over to help his corner out either. It was the perfect play and a bad defensive play call in addition.
The issue with the play call above is that it’s so stressful on a defense. The Eagles have matchup-winners everywhere on the football field, the 49ers cannot afford to play very much man, especially now down Jason Verrett - who was their best cover corner by a massive margin. Devonta Smith on Dontae Johnson is a matchup lost.
Here’s the crux - the 49ers played more man coverage than usual on Sunday against the Lions, and that was with Jason Verrett. Unless DeMeco Ryans decides to shift back towards the Cover 3/Quarters heavy-defense that Robert Saleh deployed in his time here, and away from the Cover 1 stuff that we saw yesterday, the Eagles could definitely take advantage of a weak cornerback room with the speed they have at all three of their starting WR positions. Spreading out the defense with five-wide formations also forces the 49ers to rely more heavily on DB-heavy packages, and that’s a better thing for the Eagles again, considering how unready Ambry Thomas looks, and how bad Dontae Johnson is.
Jalen Hurts
Hurts was not good last season - early signs show that isn’t the case anymore. Hurts was a top-three graded QB by PFF in Week 1 and for good reason, with a nearly flawless performance against the Falcons. He made quick, correct decisions, threw the ball with touch or velocity whenever needed, and looked far more measured and accurate both from within the pocket and outside of it. A stark contrast from last season, but there’s even more to it than the surface.
Jalen Hurts in 2020:
9.5 intended air yards per attempt (2nd highest in the NFL)
-2.5 CPOE (completion above expectation) (5th lowest in the NFL)
Those two are related, Hurts was so aggressive in his limited starts last season that his expected completion percentage was sub-60%, which is basically unheard of in the NFL.
Jalen Hurts in 2021 (small sample size):
3.7 intended air yards per attempt (lowest in the NFL)
+9.1 CPOE (5th highest in the NFL)
Essentially, he’s the inverse of what he was in 2020. The Eagles offense thrives on the short passing game, not unlike what the 49ers do. The difference is that the 49ers have the fast LBs to cover sideline to sideline and stop a horizontally-oriented attack, essentially, Hurts will have to attack more downfield than he did against the Falcons - which is definitely a possibility. Again, with the corner matchup already lost for the 49ers, there is a possibility that this could be a shootout rather than a slugfest.
The Eagles gained 86 yards and scored once just on screen passes alone against the Falcons. Hurts also rushed for 62 yards on just 7 carries. The 49ers need to keep him and his legs in check, and it’s not just the rushing. Outside of the pocket, Hurts was on-target on 4 of his 6 attempts for 61 yards and a touchdown. He’s dangerous from inside and outside the pocket, the 49ers need to be able to rattle the young QB with pressure - something he barely saw against the Falcons. Nick Sirianni clearly showed some play-calling chops and real ability against the Falcons, we’ll see if he can continue that against a fellow rookie coordinator/coach in DeMeco Ryans.
What does the Eagles defense present?
Good things and bad things - let’s start off with both. What do I mean?
NBC Sports Philadelphia had this telling statistic:
On their first three drives, Atlanta ran 16 times for 102 yards. The rest of the game, they ran 10 times for 22 yards.
Atlanta runs a scheme that isn’t dissimilar from Kyle Shanahan in terms of the run-game. The run game can surely be effective, but it depends on the OL executing - Philadelphia surrendered 5.4 yards per carry to the Falcons when they ran zone-runs, outside or inside. The 49ers can control the clock by doing so.
The issue comes with the pass blocking. Philadelphia’s DL is very good, with All-Pro Fletcher Cox headlining a strong, deep unit. Cox lining up over Brunskill is not a favorable matchup for the 49ers and they’ll need to scheme around it. The Eagles are strong with their DL and have an outstanding corner in Darius Slay, but their weakness is at the LB position - something that Kyle Shanahan will surely exploit with the best TE in the league and his quick RBs.
The defense is a winnable matchup. The issue comes with really, the PHI offense. If they get ahead early and the 49ers have to rely on the dropback passing game and not their run game, the 49ers could have some issues with the PHI DL. But overall, the 49ers easily win the skill-position battle in the secondary, save for the CB1 v. WR1 spot where Darius Slay is in play.
The 49ers didn’t have their best performance against the Lions, but they now stand a tougher challenge against the Eagles. Although the Eagles performance against the Falcons could have been flukey, they are a team that shouldn’t be underestimated, and this game could be quite close. This is DeMeco Ryans’ first real challenge as a DC, more than it is a challenge for Kyle Shanahan - the key will be how the defense performs against the Eagles offense, stacked with playmakers.
I wonder if this game sets up as a good place for a more Lance heavy plan? That DL is legit, but I wonder how they'll hold up if we give them a little more to chase?
I think the DC change is still underrated about the impact on SF defense. There were some bad things in the Lions game, but it could change in better in this game, at least this is what we all hope. On the offense side it was a very poor challenge, so it will be very interesting to see if there is a real improvement in Jimmy or it was just everything going well (I think about the Deebo TD, a possible easy interception with a CB less "Akello style"). I don't think we will see more Trey until KS will trust more in his defense. It was a bad surprise don't see Trey for a series or two at 41-17, but I think the whole situation is very hard to manage for KS, exposing him at criticism almost in every case, whether it makes Trey play too little or too much. Let's see how it goes after some losses, hoping it will be as late as possible in the season.