Pinpointing FA targets: Why the 49ers should be aggressive in free agency this offseason + Historical Precedent: Nick Bosa's recovery

The so-called COVID cap has allowed for a lot of talent to saturate the market. SF must take advantage.

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Santa Clara - In an ideal offseason, the 49ers would love to strengthen the OL, the backup QB position, the slot WR position, the CB position - the list goes on and on. But the key trait for any outside free agents the 49ers would bring in - value. They need to be good value for their price, there’s no need to pay extra for a minor upgrade. With that being said, there are some clear fits, scheme-wise, experience included, and price factored in this free agency. The COVID cap has struck many teams very hard, with stalwarts like now former Kansas City offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz being part of the purge. Talent is going to be saturating the markets, not only in free agency, but also this draft - one that is stacked at the QB, WR, CB, and OL positions. And while there is no high-end talent at EDGE, there is plenty in the mid-rounds that would fit with the 49ers as well… the 49ers are well-positioned with above average relative cap space along with draft capital to replenish their roster this offseason, but they must do it with value, not with overpaying as done in previous years.

Who would the best fits be? What do they bring to the table? Can they do more?

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QB: Alex Smith

Alex Smith didn’t have the best season in 2020. Of course, that was the least of his worries - with complications stemming from a gruesome leg injury suffered in 2019, Smith nearly lost his life and could have had his leg amputated. However, the former #1 overall selection by the 49ers - the last QB the 49ers have taken in the 1st round, made his triumphant return this season and won comeback player of the year. Was he particularly good? No. Was he starter-quality? Maaaybe. Would Smith fit the Kyle Shanahan offense and be a great backup QB? Yes.

Simply put, the 49ers cannot spend money on a backup. It’s important, with Garoppolo’s injury history but there’s no need nor the ability to spend more than a couple million on a higher-end backup option like AJ McCarron, Andy Dalton, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Smith has already expressed an interest in returning to the Bay Area in interviews. Smith would come cheap. Smith knows the area. But most of all… it’s versatility?

What I mean by that is, it’s still very unclear where the 49ers will head this offseason with regards to the QB position - will they sell the farm for Watson? Will they trade up for someone like Justin Fields, Trey Lance, or Zach Wilson. Could they take Mac Jones? Or the obvious one, stick with Garoppolo? In any of these scenarios, Smith fits like a glove. If the 49ers did pick the future QB early and decided, say, to move on from Garoppolo - Smith would be a good mentor, having already dealt with being a pressured high selection by the 49ers at QB. His decision making and efficiency although it dropped off in 2020 is still essential to a QB, and that would be really important to learn for a young QB.

Or the 49ers could take another three technique. I’m kidding. Maybe. And in that scenario, Smith would be the backup to Garoppolo, not pushing anyone for a starting job, but not any slouch either. He fits in every scenario the 49ers could roll with in 2021.

Smith completed 66.7% of his passes for 1582 yards, 6 TDs and 8 INTs. Not amazing, but contextual stats would have you know he played better - PFF graded Smith at 66.0, which is pretty good and on par with the best backups and even some mid-range starters. Smith went 5-1 behind a bad offensive line, and without any legitimate receiving threats not named Terry McLaurin. He can still play.

RB: Duke Johnson

Johnson has been one of the best receiving RBs in the league since entering in 2015, routinely racking up yards on 3rd down as a potent pass catcher and a good pass protector. He’d be a great change of pace back next to the speed of Mostert, the power of Wilson - and he’s just 27 years old, with relative youth. Johnson would fill in what Jerick McKinnon was supposed to be, and he’d do it with the ability to run the ball better (though not by much) as well. He’s almost a bulky, elite slot WR - and would bring added versatility to this offense at an affordable cost.

OC: Alex Mack

It could not get more obvious than this. Mack isn’t the long-term solution to the center position for the 49ers, but it’s highly unlikely that a rookie will be able to step in and perform up to standards - certainly not with Aaron Donald and JJ Watt now in the division. Mack has been outstanding for many years, and an iron-man as well. He’s started 179 out of 190 games, and missed just two games in the past 5 years. While he’s coming off a season that wasn’t up to his standards in 2020, moving back into the Kyle Shanahan offense should help him raise his play level. And the 49ers don’t need him to play like a pro-bowler, they just need him to be very good - which he was last season. At 36 years old, he will likely be looking to join a contender and the 49ers will be on the top of that list, he’s affordable, he’s from California - it just makes too much sense for both sides. Mack was still very good this season as mentioned earlier - he allowed just one sack in nearly 1000 snaps (972, to be exact) and had just three penalties.

The last time Mack was in the Shanahan offense, now four years ago - he was by far the best center in the league with an incredible 91.8 PFF grade. Is it likely he will reach that level? No way. But we know his ceiling in this offense, even slightly approaching it would be a boon to Garoppolo, Mostert, or whoever else is lining up in the backfield or under center next season.

OG: Forrest Lamp

The 49ers can’t afford to spend big money on a great guard like Joe Thuney, Kevin Zeitler, and now, the newly unretired Kyle Long. It’s highly likely someone will be drafted at the G position, and within the 1st three rounds. But the 49ers definitely need to strengthen their options. Colton McKivitz was not good last season, and the rotation of Tom Compton, Ben Garland, and Daniel Brunskill on the interior was not ideal - though Garland was still pretty good. Lamp has struggled with injuries in his short time in the NFL, and hasn’t played good when healthy either. Why sign him? Lamp is one of the more athletic offensive lineman in football, and his scheme fit would be much better at G in Shanahan’s offense. This is a low-risk, high-reward signing and he should be cheap - the latter of which is most important. Lamp at the very least would provide depth at guard, and at best take over the starting job at RG.

The combine is not a be-all, end-all tool in evaluation, but it does help paint a picture of a prospect, especially in terms of measuring athleticism. Lamp’s numbers: 5.00-second 40-yard dash (fourth among all offensive linemen), 34 bench reps (second), 111-inch broad jump (tied for third), 7.55-second three-cone drill (fifth).

His athletic profile alone would suggest a better fit in an outside zone scheme where he can use his physical traits to his advantage.

EDGE: Carl Lawson

Easily the most underrated free agent on the market this season, Lawson has consistently played well on a defense devoid of talent the last four seasons. Lawson only notched 5.5 sacks last season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Lawson has been a force off the EDGE, notching a whopping 32 QB hits last season, with 44 pressures. His game is well-rounded, and fits the 49ers need at EDGE following the likely release of Dee Ford this offseason - and he’s not going to cost $20M per year, more likely around $8M to $11M - which is perfect for the EDGE#2 on this team. Take a look at what Pro Football Focus had to say:

There is an argument to be made that Lawson is the best pure pass rusher to hit free agency this offseason. Since entering the league in 2017, his pass-rush grade on true pass-rush sets ranks in the 96th percentile among all edge defenders — firmly in elite territory. Injuries and inconsistent play have limited his opportunities to begin his career, but he finished the 2020 season with a career-high 723 defensive snaps and 84.9 pass-rushing grade. The arrow is pointing up. 

Despite finishing the season with only 5.5 sacks, few pass rushers were able to consistently beat their blocks and pressure opposing quarterbacks more often than Lawson. He was one of just five qualifying edge defenders to record a pass-rush win rate of 20% or higher, joining Joey Bosa, T.J. Watt, Khalil Mack and Jerry Hughes. On top of that, his 64 pressures were fourth-most at the position.

Lawson is flying under the radar, and the 49ers would be extremely smart to capitalize while the market has bigger names with flashier sack totals.

CB: Kevin King

Ahkello Witherspoon has not worked out for the 49ers - despite starting off his career in a way that made many believe he would be one of the better corners in the league. King has started his career the same way - but his case is a lot more interesting. He’s famous for being burned multiple times throughout 2020 - and yeah, he’s dangerously inconsistent. Also sounds like Spoon. But his ceiling and overall play level is a lot better than Ahkello Witherspoon - King runs a 4.3 40 yard dash at 6 foot 3 inches and he’s a much better, again - scheme fit. King was outstanding in 2019 as a press man corner, something the 49ers run a lot of:

Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire recently set out to find the NFL’s 11 best cornerbacks in man coverage. His evaluation led him to Packers cornerback Kevin King, who he listed as the 11th best in the NFL in a man coverage role.

According to Farrar, King allowed no touchdowns, intercepted two passes, dropped three other interceptions and gave up a QBR of under 60.0 while in man coverage during the 2019 season.

From Farrar’s breakdown:

At 6’3″ and 200 pounds, King is one of the better new wave of big, physical press cornerbacks developing right now. Aggressive to a fault off the line of scrimmage (and occasionally too grabby), King makes quick slants and drag routes very difficult for opposing receivers, because he has the size, physicality, and short-area quickness to erase those concepts. He will occasionally get lost on the back stem of longer routes, and smaller, quicker receivers can give him fits at times, but that can be said of most bigger cornerbacks, and when King trusts his instincts and doesn’t over-concentrate through the route, he’s just fine. The third-year man from Washington is one to watch.

King’s problems stem, again from getting burned downfield. In the 49ers defensive scheme with a high amount of zone or press, his strengths would be accentuated, his weaknesses hidden. King is an elite short area corner (highest graded red-zone corner in the league in 2019) with long speed, and he’d be a great bet to find himself on the 49ers. While he might cost more than Witherspoon, his overall play level paired with easily coachable mistakes and strengths in the 49ers scheme would fit and give King the fresh start he needs.

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How will Nick Bosa recover?

Let’s get it out of the way, maybe the best parallel one could draw is to Miller. Miller tore his ACL in the 2013 season, his 3rd year in the NFL. He returned the following season and was incredible, named to the Pro Bowl after notching 60 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 14 sacks, and 27 quarterback hits.

Miller was dominant in his triumphant return, but it’s worth noting that Miller was and remains one of the most physically dominant defensive ends ever to play, his burst and speed off the edge is unmatched. Bosa is no slouch, but he’s not close to that level. You could see it in two ways:

• Miller’s existing athleticism and gifts aided him in his return, as it was easier to recover and he had a higher athletic ceiling post-injury.

• Miller’s existing reliance on athleticism and natural gifts would give Bosa the advantage, as Bosa relies on technique more than athleticism.

Either way, this is the best case, basically no drop-off from pre-injury to post-injury, and with little to no-buffer. Unfortunately, I think the former scenario is more true in this case. It also needs to be factored in that this is Bosa’s second torn ACL, his first coming in his senior year of high school. Is it so far in the past that it could be disregarded - maybe. But it still needs to be said.

It’s hard to find exact parallels - proven young defensive ends that tore their ACL early in their career. It’s a small group, but Miller is easily the closest comparison, even if not physically. And it bodes well for Bosa’s future. Nick Bosa is a DPOY-level player that the 49ers need back, and they need him back in full-form if they want to realistically compete next season.

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