A balanced perspective on this entire season, Kyle Shanahan, personnel choices, and the quarterback position.

ajra21, long-standing member of the 49ers community, provides his detailed and balanced perspective on this season as the do-or-die moment nears.

Wanted to post this before the final regular-season game because emotions amongst fan bases tend to run wild after the final game (I expect the Rams to beat us regardless of who the QB is).

In one sentence, nothing I've seen this season has changed what I thought back in January, May, or even the preseason. That is both good and bad.

Pros for Head Coach

Kyle Shanahan is the best man for this job. Despite having some long-standing criticisms of Shanahan, I still believe he's the best option and I cannot come up with another option I'd want that is realistic. These "pros" For Shanahan won't feel as big as the "cons" but that is because writing a lot of words is pointless, when you can just say "Kyle Shanahan is a damn good offensive mind".

1. Firmly, I believe that the most likely option to provide long-term success is going to be an offensive-minded HC. The QB is the single biggest factor in team success and maximizing your QB's potential is the best way to go. I'm not saying that non-offense-minded HC won't have success. I think Belichick, John Harbaugh, Tomlin have all proven this. I'm even willing to hold Vrabel up as someone who could emulate them to some point. It's just that the chances of having a dud are more likely with a defensive-minded HC because if you have success, your OC is likely to go somewhere else and you've got to replicate another good OC. Who then gets hired as a HC. Rinse and repeat. Some teams may prove to manage to maintain success with this but it's not a path I want us to follow. Despite what many say, the NFL is about the offense. You win Super Bowl because of your offense because you win them because of your QB. Sustain defense is harder because it relies so much on who the opposing QB is and not who plays for your defense.

2. This leads us back to Kyle Shanahan. Despite not agreeing with much of his supposed offensive philosophy, I still want him leading this team. In 2021, believing the best O is one based firstly on the run is ignoring too much of what we now understand about the game. There is so much evidence for this. No doubt there will be games when you will want to run the crap out of the ball. But mostly, games are won through the air and the run game is used to milk the clock in the 4th when you have a big lead. The reason why I believe Shanahan is still the guy is because of his tenure with the Falcons. When he found his QB, in Matt Ryan, he was willing to pass the crap out of the ball. I think Jimmy never gave him that comfort and because of that, he never felt like he could be as pass-happy.

3. There have been games over this past season that have driven me insane because I have really not liked how Shanahan has run them. The first half against Green Bay. The Lance start against Arizona. I have criticized him for these and others. But if you think other HC don't have games like this, you're deluding yourself. We have one of the very worst CB groups in the NFL and so many teams have not thrown against them. Cincinnati should have destroyed us with that receiving group. The Titans took an entire half to understand that we could not cover an ugly face with a paper bag. Shanahan is not perfect but HC has their issues. Matt LaFleur could win an award this year and yet his offense disappears in games despite having Aaron Rodgers. McVay is considered a messiah but that offense can be painful to watch at times. The upside is there with Shanahan in a way I do not think you can replace. If people didn't think Jim Harbaugh should have been shown the door, I don't know how you could feel like Shanahan should.

4. Shanahan, with the acquisition of Trey Lance, has also shown that's he willing to take risks. Even if Lance is a bust, I'm not using that as the reason to fire Shanahan. If you want that upside, you have to be willing for risks to be taken and if you are going to punish the risk taker should it go wrong, your overall approach is off. This is not life or death. No one dies when you get it wrong. Fans get upset and yes, people will lose their jobs. But it's a sport. I want a HC who takes risks and not to be afraid of taking risks. I want an owner who doesn't hold a guillotine over the head of such a HC waiting to let it drop because the home run swing fell short.

5. Shanahan's win/lose record gets criticism but given whom he's had at QB over his time as HC, I don't think many could come close to winning the games he has done. People say that Jimmy is not good enough to be a starter and that no one should trade for him this offseason. Fine, let's take that position and go with it. So he's not good enough to be a starter and Shanahan has gone 5-0, 1-2, 15-3, 3-3, and 8-6 with him as his QB for a combined record of 32-14. 32-14 with a QB that the fan base is almost universal in wanting to move on from.
   
   Does anyone think Pete Carroll goes 32-14 with Jimmy Garoppolo in the NFCW? Does anyone think Sean McVay goes 32-14 with Jimmy Garoppolo in the NFCW? Does anyone think Kliff Kingsbury goes 32-14 with Jimmy in the NFCW? Mike Tomlin? John Harbaugh? Mike Vrabel? I suspect Bill Belichick could. I think Andy Reid could. The rest? I doubt it. If Jimmy had stayed healthy in 2018 and 2020, I think they would have completed for a wild card or even won the division. I give that credit almost entirely to Shanahan and not Jimmy. I am not telling you Jimmy is the reason Kyle Shanahan has won the games he has or that Jimmy was the reason we went to a Super Bowl. I am going to say that Shanahan is the reason why Jimmy has a 32-14 record and why Jimmy started a Super Bowl for the 49ers … and that is why I want him to stick around for a long time.

6. Five seasons in, all these players want to play for Shanahan. That is despite a losing record. Fans go on about “culture”. I think culture is almost always based around winning. If you win, guys will be happy. If you lose, that good culture will disappear. There are exceptions and I think we have enough of a sample size to consider that Shanahan can build a culture without winning. That is not to be dismissed.

Cons for Head Coach

There are many cons to Shanahan. They loosely fall into two categories. Things he has more control over and things that he has less control over.

1. As mentioned above, his run-the-ball first mentality limits us due to the type of OL he looks to acquire. OL must be able to hold up in pass protection on the most important downs when the opposing defense knows you must pass because it's third (or fourth) and long and the game is on the line. In the biggest games, against the best defenses, the most important snaps are more likely to be passing downs.

   I loved Joe Staley who was a good pass protector and an exceptional run blocker. During his time I often held up Trent Williams as a better LT and was knocked down by many a Niner fan. Williams is a better run blocker but more importantly, he's a better pass protector.

   
   On the other side, Mike McGlinchey was never someone I wanted us to take in the top ten. If your pass protection skills aren't good in college, expecting them to be good enough in the NFL just isn't smart. If you are looking at top ten OT, that guy has to be able to hold up in pass protection. Some years ago, I spent an offseason wanting us to sign Mitchell Schwartz. His body failed of late and he's not likely to play again, but he was an exceptional pass protector. Until he missed games in 2020, he'd not missed a single game in his career just showing how strange injuries can be.

   
   The reason I wanted Tristan Wirfs over pretty much everyone was because he could pass protect. I would have traded McGlinchey or just played Wirfs at Guard. Run blocking is about scheme and unit cohesion. No doubt, some guys are better at it than others. But pass protection on those most important downs is about one guy being able to hold up against a DE or DT who has the skills to destroy the play in two seconds. You have to acquire that. You have to see that as the most important aspect of an OL. These guys are rare so you have to be willing to draft or sign the ones you can. You can find run blockers in the middle/late rounds or for cheap in free agency. Tom Compton is kind of proving that. I generally feel that if our pass protection held up better, we'd have beaten KC in the Super Bowl.
   
   Additionally, passing is generally better at setting up the run, than the run setting up the pass. We've seen this with play-action being shown to be successful when the running game is not working as well as when it is. Passing on first down is frequently the best chance you get. The best RB and running games average 5 yards a carry, maybe a little more. That is a yard less than the worst passing attacks.

2. Next up is the approach on fourth downs. At this point, fourth and short should not be a special team down most of the time unless you are inside your half. And even then, there are times your punter should not see the field. Third downs, at the very least, should be downs that you are trying to make it "4th and short". We lost the Super Bowl for a few reasons but one reason under Shanahan's control was kicking field goals when he should have been going for it. When we kicked our first field goal in the Super Bowl, I said that we're losing this game. Against Houston recently, Lance ran on third down to make it "fourth & short" near the 50-yard line. Shanahan chose to punt. That was a mistake. He's been making this same mistake for a long time. Perhaps my biggest fear is that the Atlanta Super Bowl changed Shanahan. That he became more conservative due to that loss.

3. "Capital investment" is the final area that he can have a better say. This regime - and that means Shanahan, has made far too many poor cap decisions. Any single contract can often be excused but the big picture tells a tale of poor roster management. Signing Malcolm Smith. The extension for Marquise Goodwin. The second contract for Robbie Gould and subsequent redo. McKinnon. Giving Coleman $8.5m over two seasons. The way they re-did Kwon's deal and Dee Ford's deal. When players get injured, you move on from them. You don't redo contracts to make it harder to manage future injuries. Shanahan is too willing to invest capital in RB both in terms of picks (two for Sermon) and big money (McKinnon and Coleman) is concerning. He, for sure, is the one guy that should not be doing this. His entire career (and his father's) has been built on late-round or UDFA having success. The running game is an important part of the NFL. The specific RB is not. The running game is driven by OL and scheme.
   
   If you luck into a Derrick Henry or Nick Chubb and want to pay them, then OK, but do it knowing the track record of those guys being on Super Bowl-winning teams is not good. TEN have managed to win their division without Henry, while CLE will miss the playoffs again despite having Chubb and another well-paid RB in Kareem (I kick women) Hunt. I say all of this as someone who loves a good running game but just because I love it, doesn't mean I should ignore the flaws of investing assets in RB. I love to watch a good bunt for a base hit but I know, most of the time, it is just plain stupid. At this point, if you don't understand all this about the running game, I'm not going to waste any more time on it. It's like arguing that wins are a very good way of judging a starting pitcher in 2021. It was put to rest some time ago. If you want to remain in denial, go ahead.

The Draft

As for things outside of their control, I am willing to put the draft into that box. I'm not saying they've not made bad decisions, ones that many people said were bad before they actually happened or the very moment they happened. I've posted this before but I'll do it again for emphasis. I judge drafts on the first three rounds. Anything you get after that is just a bonus.

2017:

• First Round - Thomas was not tagged nor extended. He's a rotation piece in Las Vegas. For the record, I was very much for this pick but would have been happy with any one of almost a dozen players, many of whom have also not played well in the NFL. I was wrong about Thomas. I was wrong about a load of others too.

• First Round - Foster was cut during his second year. Off-field red flags before his drafting along with injuries should have stopped this from happening.

• Third Round - Witherspoon never played up to his potential. He's having a solid year in PIT after not sticking on a terrible SEA team.

• Third Round - Beathard is a backup in JAX. Shanahan wanted CJ Beathard but didn't want to move up for him which was a move made by John Lynch. Yuck all around.

• Overview - None are left on the team.

2018:

• First Round - McGlinchey was a below-average pass protector who was not worth a top ten pick. No manner of insane run blocking can excuse that. I'd be open to extending him for the right price which will be considerably less than he gets as I fully expect this regime to overpay him.

• Second Round - Dante Pettis was cut after his second season. He has done little in the NFL. The concerns that many had with him coming out have proven to be true.

• Third Round - Fred Warner is the first real success on this list. He's a blue-chip player who could be a first-round pick if 20-20 hindsight was possible. He's exactly what you want in a modern off-the-ball LB in the modern game and (along with so many others) shows why you can wait on stack LB in the draft.

• Third Round - Tarvarius Moore is still on the team but on IR this year with a torn ACL. His lack of success is probably due to him being moved to CB and then back to S. If he'd not been forced to change positions, I suspect he'd have made more of an impact but who knows?

• Overview - One blue-chipper and one solid to above-average starter. That's a good draft but the top two picks leave a lot to be desired.2019

2019:

• First Round - Nick Bosa. For me, and many others, this was an easy pick. I'm willing to give them some credit for not taking another three-tech in Quinnen Williams who has been pretty damn good for a terrible Jets org. Bosa is going to get paid very well.

• Second Round - Deebo Samuel has definitely paid off. This is a good pick following them getting to know him at the Senior Bowl. Credit where credit is due. He still has his injury issues, but so does the guy I'd have taken over him, AJ Brown (note, I'd still take AJ Brown over Deebo the gap has been closed). I'm interested to see how they deal with yet another guy getting paid after a career year (Armstead, Ward, and Warner).

• Third Round - Jalen Hurd. Not sure where to start with this one. Didn't like it at the time. Felt like a wasted pick and it was. I get that injuries can happen to anyone; but honestly, who felt good about taking this kind of project in the third round? In the fourth would have been high for me but I'd have been content with it because the last day is a complete crapshoot.

• Overview - This is by far their best haul so far and they completely whiffed on one pick.

2020:

• First Round - Javon Kinlaw might be the pick I dislike most from everyone this regime has ever made. If I keep typing, the rant is going to go on forever so I'm just going to say two words: Tristan Wirfs.

• First Round - Aiyuk has had his ups and downs so far but it's looking good. Not a fan of trading up for him but if he keeps going it would be very hard to critique this pick.

• (Third Round - Traded for Trent Williams. I'm adding this because I think such a move needs to be applauded even if it ends up requiring a massive contract. I don't mind paying a lot of money for the best LT in football. Honestly, if I had him and Wirfs at OT, I might be so smug that my head would explode.)

• Overview - Maybe Kinlaw turns it around but even then he will not have been worth his pick. They will get barely anything from his rookie deal. Aiyuk needs to give more in year three but is promising.

2021:

• First Round (and in 2022 & 2023) - Trey Lance is basically going to make or break this list and I'll discuss this later in this soapbox of trash I am spewing.

• Second Round - Aaron Banks was a pick that didn't feel right at the time because, despite some PFF grading showing that he was better in zone blocking than power/gap/man blocking, he really didn't look right. Some felt he moved well enough plus our run scheme has included more power plays than in 2017. One year in, this doesn't look good. Personally, I don't believe he'll be as worth his pick as Javon Kinlaw was at #13 the year earlier and that is a really bad sign.

• Third Round - Trey Sermon is a RB I really quite liked. I figured someone would take him in the late rounds and get a solid complimentary piece. So far, he was over-drafted, overpriced, and has barely played. This might be the worst process for any pick this regime has made. Worse than Banks or Kinlaw and that is saying something. I truly hope I'm wrong and he becomes a solid second option to Mitchell.

• Third Round - Ambry Thomas was not a pick I loved. He started out poorly, but that was understandable given he'd missed a year (which is why I didn't like where we took him). He's improved a little in a month and let us hope he's a starter moving forward.

• Overview - all about Trey Lance.

First-round picks are Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, Mike McGlinchey, Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trey Lance. Not great. They have not drafted well. Hitting on George Kittle, DJ Jones, Dre Greenlaw, and Elijah Mitchell doesn't change that. I have some real questions about their process, but out-drafting your peers is not easy. The draft is a crapshoot. 2017 turned out a poor first round, with only two of the top ten being worth their pick in Mahomes and Garrett; and five from the top twenty in Watson (sans the obvious sexual assault accusations), Lattimore (who hasn't played great since his rookie year), Marlon Humphrey and Jonathan Allen. However, not drafting well leads to overpaying in free agency to cover holes such as Kwon Alexander. If they continue to draft poorly, it will be the primary reason for their downfall and what can be called "unlucky" will have to be considered a "poor process".

In some ways, the best part of using four picks for Trey Lance is that I don't have to watch them waste four picks on crappy players over the next couple of years.

The Quarterback

I am not a QB expert. I have said this many times over the years. I didn't think Watson or Mahomes would have the success they have had on the field. I generally stay away from assessing QBs because, deep down, I don't think anyone really knows how to evaluate them well. Most of them miss and most evaluators miss on most QB prospects.

For a long time, I have believed that Jimmy's ACL tear changed his future and this team's future. I think he's not the QB he could have become, and I say this being one of the first in 2017/2018 to air concerns about him before that injury - much to the Niners Nation comment section's annoyance. But I could be wrong about Jimmy. Better, more insightful, minds could prove me wrong. I'm more than happy to have that happen, though how we prove either point of view is beyond me.Many people are going to criticize my points in the coming paragraphs. Well, good. They should be scrutinized because I have little expertise in this field, just like everyone else. We should all be open to opposing views.

Without question, I firmly believed that this was one of the best QB classes in a very long time yet, equally, I don't think any of them will have careers that people will currently be hoping for. I wouldn't rule out any of them getting a second contract from the team that drafted them. I would have been fine with Fields though his pocket presence is concerning, and I preferred both Lawrence and Wilson over Lance - but they were not an option. If we'd have stayed at the original number twelve pick, I'd have been fine with them taking Mac Jones. A quick side note: I am a firm believer that after talent, who drafts you is the single biggest factor in a player's success. When Trevor Lawrence and Zac Wilson were taken by JAX and NYJ, I felt they were done for. The Jets could destroy the mental stability of a robot while Urban Meyer is … well Urban Meyer.

Mac Jones has been better this year than many Niner fans want to admit. People who say he cannot throw a deep ball haven't paid enough attention - he's not great at it but he's better than people think. He wasn't worth the third overall pick, but NE is going to win a ton of games with him and I suspect Shanahan would do so as well. He's already a step better than Jimmy and if the possibility exists that Lance can improve under Shanahan, then so can the possibility that Jones can under Belichick. If Jones have ended up in many places, he'd be screwed - just like Lance would be, and just like Lawrence/Wilson probably are. Equally, I think that both Belichick and Shanahan would be having plenty of success with Lawrence as a rookie, maybe less so with Wilson in hindsight but It would be better than we're seeing with NYJ.)Right, this is where people are not going to like what I'm writing - if you even liked what came before. I do not believe Trey Lance will be the success we all want him to be. Before the draft, I believed there were too many concerns surrounding him. His lack of playing time was one, but more specifically that this limited playing time came against so few future NFL players.

North Dakota produces NFL players. The rest of that league does not. However, I think this can be overcome. My biggest concern has been and remains his accuracy. The Houston game was the first time I've not been surprised when the ball was close to his receivers, yet I still think some of his easy passes were not well placed. In the preseason, and against SEA & AZ, I didn't expect him to hit the broadside of a barn with a banjo at one yard. The fact he's improved this against Houston is a good sign but it's not a guarantee. The sample size will need to be far larger. If Colin Kaepernick can have more than a season of "good signs" as he did and still not sustain his success, I cannot look at one game from Lance and feel overly confident. Now, here we are with the third overall pick, and having invested two other firsts to get it, they needed to swing for the fences.

Therefore, Trey Lance was the player that made the most sense. The physical upside, the way he'd be coached in college in a scheme that had similar concepts and that by all accounts, he's a "football junkie" (whatever the hell you want that means). Taking Trey Lance was the right pick despite me not believing he will have the success we are looking/hoping for. The reason Green Bay, New England, Kansas City, Seattle as well as Pittsburgh & New Orleans in the past have dominated their divisions is because of their QB. The Chargers may have found something similar and I still suspect KC will keep winning the division. Teams that win their division tend to win more Super Bowls. Winning the division is about having the best QB. There are, no doubt, exceptions to this rule. Occasionally, a team with a healthy and superb QB will come second. But if you do not have "that" QB, then everything must go right. Exceptions are exceptions. Mac Jones at #12 would have been an upgrade over Jimmy because of the cap space he'd have created but Jones was not likely to ever be the best QB in the NFCW. I am not a Murray fan but he's capable of winning games by himself. Wilson could leave SEA but he's been a top-six QB for most of his time in the NFL despite playing for a HC who thinks it is 1976. Stafford with McVay should not be dismissed even if his flaws remain.

Trey Lance at #3 was Shanahan's best chance of taking over this division. When we took him, I was deeply relieved despite not believing in him as some do. Mac Jones would have been the wrong pick at #3. Then it comes to the season. I don't think Trey Lance was ready to start in week one. I don't think he was the best option for winning games over the first month of the season.

Yet, I would still have played him over Jimmy. I would have traded or cut Jimmy to free up cap space for 2021 or that could be rolled into 2022. I also understand why Shanahan didn't do that. He has a roster of vets that believe they can win a Super Bowl. They are coming off an injury-riddled year and want success. Balancing that when Jimmy has brought success to these players is not an easy thing to do. I wanted Trey to get as much playing time as possible, even if he was inferior to Jimmy because, over the long run, that is his best chance for success and with it, the best chance of winning the division and a Super Bowl for the 49ers. Equally, saving cap money and maximizing Lance's cheap years is just good roster management. I ignored Mahomes and Watson (as well as Josh Allen to some extend) because I believed they relied on their superior physical gifts to overcome other areas in the game, which in the past was not a good predictor of NFL success. If I was wrong about them, I could be wrong about Lance.

1. I don’t make this trade.

2. I don’t think Trey Lance will be successful enough to satisfy what we were looking for.

3. I think Trey Lance was and is the best option to achieve success given what we have and where we are.

4. Playing him sooner rather than later is the best way to heighten our chances of success.

5. All of the above can be true and perfectly reasonable.

The Future

This weekend, I think we lose to the Rams with whoever plays at QB. I will be annoyed the season didn't go differently. The GB game will annoy me. So will the IND game, the Colt McCoy game, and the Titans' game. But, in the end, the team is going to have won the number of games I expected they would: between 9 and 12 games depending on health (simply having two NFL quality CB would have had them in the playoffs). In a sixteen-game season, we'd not have already made the playoffs at this point, because we would not have won against Cincinnati and would finish the season with an 8-8 record. This offseason, Shanahan needs to make sure Trey is the only option as a starter. Get a vet backup who can help him, push him but never make us question that he should be starting. They need to draft well, be better in the passing game, and be aggressive on fourth down. Generally, this team I enjoy rooting for and with. I don't like all the players and while I find it all frustrating at times, we're in a good place.

Enjoy life everyone, in whichever way you want! I spent far too much time writing this sprawling ramble of crap. Many won't like it and they probably shouldn't. Some will like and they probably shouldn't.