Previewing the NFC: Offseason Moves and Predictions

Looking at the 49ers' competition as they push for another playoff bye and Super Bowl berth

The Catch, NFC Championship Game

---

Hello, time for someone new to write on For the Niners! Back on Slack, I wrote about some of the major offseason changes in the AFC, and some thoughts on each of the teams. I’m going to be doing the same for the NFC, as well as give some predicted records for each team. The descriptions ended up being a lot longer than I planned, so no offense taken if you only look at the Niners’ opponents.

NFC East

The most talked about offseason move for the Philadelphia Eagles was drafting Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second round of the draft. This matters a lot since Carson Wentz has a nasty injury history. When Wentz is healthy he is one of the best in the game, but as mentioned, he never can consistently get on the field. Hurts was talked about more, but the more impactful addition is Darius Slay, one of the best corners in the game. They also drafted Jalen Reagor in the first round, covering their biggest weakness in wide receiver last season. Marquise Goodwin was signed, but opted out of the season due to Covid. Corner Nickell Robey-Coleman and linebacker Jatavis Brown. Veteran tackle Jason Peters was also re-signed to play as guard. However, the Eagles did lose some big names in free agency in Malcolm Jenkins, Ronald Darby, Vinny Curry, and Timmy Jernigan. But their additions did a great job at addressing previous weak points, and I think the reigning NFC East champions should improve, provided they have some decent injury luck for once. 

The Dallas Cowboys were another team with a strong draft, picking up wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and cornerback Trevon Diggs. The biggest news for their offseason was re-signing Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. Three-time all-pro center Travis Frederick retired, leaving Dallas with Joe Looney and rookie Tyler Biadasz. Players leaving in free agency include Randall Cobb, Xavier Su’a Filo, Maliek Collins, Robert Quinn, Byron Jones, and Jeff Heath. The Cowboys did manage to pick up Gerald McCoy and Haha Clinton Dix, who should outperform the players lost in free agency. Former Niner Aldon Smith also joins, and is reportedly having a great training camp so far. On top of all the personnel changes, they have a new head coach in Mike McCarthy. I’m not a big fan of McCarthy, but it’s hard to see a move from Jason Garrett as negative. I expect Dallas to be in contention for the NFCE, but fail to make a deep playoff run as is typical for them.

Most of you have probably heard that Washington is now officially known as the “Washington Football Team”. Or that running back Derrius Guice was released over rape allegations. New head coach Ron Rivera was also recently diagnosed with lymph node cancer. So this has been a very chaotic offseason for WFT. On the field, Washington’s biggest hope comes from second year QB Dwayne Haskins progressing. Their biggest offensive offseason addition, Cody Latimer, was just released for off-field issues. Washington did make some moves on defense, drafting defensive end Chase Young second overall, and picked up Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, and Thomas Davis in free agency. This should let WFT be better than their 3-13 2019 team, but not ready to compete for the playoffs.

The New York Giants decided to pick up former Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett, and place him as offensive coordinator. He coached some Cowboys teams that often fell short of expectations, but usually kept Dallas competitive. Outside of this, the Giants had a fairly uneventful offseason. They appear to have a solid draft after picking tackle Andrew Thomas and safety Xavier Mckinney. Thomas will be especially important since veteran tackle Nate Solder opted out of this season. They added some solid defensive pieces in corner James Bradberry and linebacker Blake Martinez. Much like Washington, the Giants will depend on a second year quarterback. But Daniel Jones had a much better rookie year than Dwayne Haskins, and has the help of a strong running game with the most gifted RB in the game in Saquon Barkley. If Jones has a strong season, I could see the Giants staying in the division race for a while, but I have a hard time seeing them winning the East. 

NFC North

Looking at the Packers past season, they weren’t as good as their 13-3 record suggests. They had a very weak schedule, and didn’t beat many decent teams aside from the Vikings, playoff Seahawks, and Mahomes-less Chiefs. Their draft was noted for the Packers not addressing their most obvious need, wide receiver, and grabbing quarterback Jordan Love in the first round. To be fair to Green Bay, they did sign Devin Funchess, but he opted out of the season after the draft. At linebacker, they lost Blake Martinez, but gained Christian Kirksey, who has already played for defensive coordinator Mike Pettine. He should be an upgrade with his pass defense. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga also left for the Chargers, and will be replaced by former Lion Rick Wagner. The Packers are the most obvious NFC team to regress this year, but should be in the playoff hunt even if they will not be top two in the conference. 

The Vikings had an atypical offseason in that they lost more core players than usual. These include Stefon Diggs, Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes, and Trae Waynes. On top of this, offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski left Minnesota to coach the Cleveland Browns. His replacement will be former Broncos coach Gary Kubiak. Kubiak worked with the Vikings last year, so I expect their offense to not change too much. The Vikings tried to make up for their lost talent in the draft, ending with 14 new players, most notably receiver Justin Jefferson and corner Jeff Gladney in the first round. They also signed Michael Pierce to help the defensive line. I expect some slight regression from Minnesota, and continue their recent trend of being weaker in even-numbered years.

The Bears had some tough injury luck, and played much of their past season without guys like Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, Kyle Long, and Roquan Smith. If the Bears are going to come back they need to have these guys stay healthy, and they even re-signed Trevathan to a 3 year deal. Their other big moves were grabbing Jimmy Graham and Robert Quinn in free agency, as well as trading for a backup QB in Nick Foles. However, they lost Kyle Long to retirement and Eddie Goldman to a Covid opt-out. Prime Amukamara was also released, and Ha-Ha Clinton Dix left in free agency. Like most fans, I am not very inspired by Mitch Trubisky or Chicago’s offseason.

Detroit was incredibly fun to watch last season before Stafford got hurt, and then horrendous afterwards. They had their own offseason drama get leaked as well, as former Lions star cornerback Darius Slay had beef with coach Matt Patricia. With Slay in Philly, Patricia seems to keep trying to “Patriot-ize” the team with pick-ups like Duron Harmon, Jamie Collins, and Danny Shelton. Desmond Trufant came in to replace Slay. The Lions also lose some talent O-line in Rick Wagner and Graham Glasgow. Their draft should be strong, picking up corner Jeff Okudah and running back D’Andre Swift. Overall, Matt Patricia has not proven to be a good coach in his first two years in Detroit, but a full year with Stafford should give us a better idea. 

NFC South

The New Orleans Saints are looking to win their division for their fourth year in a row. Much of their offseason was centered around keeping their current core, re-signing Drew Brees, Andrus Peat, and Janoris Jenkins. They also brought back former Saints PJ Williams and Malcolm Jenkins for their secondary. Their biggest free agent addition was former Niner Emmanuel Sanders, addressing a big need at receiver. The Saints obviously have Michael Thomas, but not many other receivers to help him out. They didn’t lose many big names either, mainly the very inconsistent Eli Apple, an old Ted Ginn, and AJ Klein. Teddy Bridgewater, who did a very good job as a backup QB in 2019, will be replaced by Jameis Winston. The Saints only ended up with four new players in the draft, so we should see a very similar team in New Orleans. The biggest worry is how much Brees’ age will show, since he is 41.

Tom-pa Bay has probably been the most hyped team this offseason. Brady and Gronk both join the Buccaneers. Winston was very fun to watch with Evans and Godwin, but threw so many interceptions and cost Tampa in many games. Brady will inherit strong receivers, a decent O-line that includes the newly drafted Tristan Wirfs. The defense has one of the strongest front sevens and a young secondary that should be improved with rookie Antoine Winfield. The Bucs have the tools to play well and make a deep playoff run. If Brady proves that last year’s disappointment was due to his supporting cast and not his age, the Bucs can easily challenge the Saints. 

Ever since Shanahan left Atlanta for San Francisco, the Falcons have looked largely mediocre. Last season, they suffered from a very slow start but played well in the second half of their season. They lost some big names from their Super Bowl run, Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman. Their replacements are Hayden Hurst, who’s  played behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore, and Todd Gurley. Gurley’s health will be the most important factor for Atlanta’s offense as it heavily limited his production in LA in 2019. On defense Dante Fowler replaces Vic Beasley, who never did much outside of 2016. Their first two draft picks were used on defense, giving Atlanta CB A.J. Terrell, and DL Marlon Davidson. The Falcons look like a decent team stuck with two strong competitors in its division, likely missing out on the playoffs. And with Ryan aging, he may also decline this season as well.

Carolina is my personal pick for the worst team in the NFC and will be lead by new head coach Matt Rhule. Teddy Bridgewater comes in to play quarterback, and should perform much better than Kyle Allen. And the offense of course has Christian McCaffrey. They also saw the loss of Greg Olsen, and traded away Trai Turner for Russell Okung. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers lost Gerald McCoy, Bruce Irvin, James Bradberry, and Eric Reid. Stud linebacker Luke Kuechly also retired. They got a few new bodies in free agency, mainly corner Eli Apple, but the defense is a rough group to go against Brees, Brady, and Ryan. The Panthers decided to address this by using all of their draft picks on defensive linemen and defensive backs, leaving the offensive line and linebacking corps barren. The Panthers are clearly building for the long term, and will suffer this season.

NFC West

After a severe case of a Super Bowl hangover, the LA Rams will be looking to bounce back in a suddenly competitive NFC West. Since last season, they have lost Todd Gurley, Dante Fowler, Brandin Cooks, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Eric Weddle, Clay Matthews, Corey Littleton, and more. Of course, they did trade for Jalen Ramsey last season who is one of the best corners in the game. They also managed to pick up Leonard Floyd and A’shawn Robinson in free agency. They had a small draft class, but the name to look out for will be running back Cam Akers, as the replacement for Gurley. The Rams are a team that I think will have a lot of close games, but remain competitive in most and will be able to beat anyone. But they are very susceptible to being screwed by trading away so many recent draft picks and being in a very tough division. Nice new stadium though.

Seattle is forever the thorn in the 49er’s side and will remain a threat this season since  Russell Wilson is still the best quarterback in the NFC. Their two biggest additions this offseason came in the secondary. Corner Quinton Dunbar is a strong corner and will likely play despite his previous armed robbery charges this offseason. The Seahawks also traded for Jamal Adams. While Bradley Mcdougald and 2 first rounders is a hefty price, Seattle will only benefit in 2020. Seattle also picked up veterans Bruce Irvin and Greg Olsen. Losses include Quinton Jefferson, DJ Fluker, George Fant, Justin Britt, Germain Ifedi, Ezekiel Ansah, Mychal Kendricks, and Jadeveon Clowney. This hurts especially the defensive line, where the lost talent balances out the improved secondary. Their first round draft pick Jordyn Brooks seems like a reach, but the Seahawks tend to be good at finding talent in later rounds. The Seahawks look like they have a slightly worse roster this year and should regress to the mean in close games, but they were also hit very hard by injuries last season. I expect them to be very competitive in the West and give us more heart-attack inducing games. 

If any West team has received a lot of attention this offseason, it is the Arizona Cardinals. The attention took off once they traded for Deandre Hopkins to the Texans for David Johnson and a second rounder. This provides a top target for second year quarterback Kyler Murray, which is important since Larry FItzgerald is now 36. Arizona also tagged Kenyan Drake who broke out after he got traded for last season. Other big free agent signings focused on defense, being Jordan Phillips, De’Vondre Campbell, and Devon Kennard. And aside from Johnson, they didn’t lose anyone too important. However, Marcus Gilbert did opt out of the season hurting their offensive line. Arizona’s success depends on the ability of defenses to adjust to a spread offense but they will be a strong competitor. They feel very similar to the Browns of last year in hype, but can they match the hype?

The 49ers had a nearly impeccable offseason and you can’t convince me otherwise.

Playoff Predictions:

1. 49ers (13-3)

2. Saints (12-4)

3. Packers (11-5)

4. Eagles (10-6)

5. Buccaneers (11-5)

6. Cowboys (10-6)

7. Seahawks (10-6)

8. Cardinals (9-7)

9. Minnesota (8-8)

10. Lions (7-9)

11. Falcons (6-10)

12. Rams (6-10)

13. WFT (6-10)

14. Giants (6-10)

15. Bears (5-11)

16. Panthers (3-13)

The above predictions were made using the actual schedule, to make sure strength of schedule was taken into account. So let me know if you have any questions about it or want a link to the full schedule. And yes, I gave the 49ers three losses (Rams, Bills, Cardinals).