What does John Lynch's draft history suggest about our future? + The case against drafting a QB in the mid rounds.
If history is any indicator, it's clear where the 49ers will go this offseason. Plus, an argument against the popular "developmental" mid-round QB.
Santa Clara - There are 57 days left to the draft.
Yeah, we are in for the long haul in peak mock draft season, and well, the offseason can’t be going any more crazily.
We’ve seen the most QB turnover in the NFL, with the latest domino being Carson Wentz. Wentz was traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2021 3rd round pick and conditional 2022 2nd round pick, condition being that if he plays more than 75% of the snaps next season for the Colts (or 70%, and the Colts make the playoffs), that 2nd round pick is converted into a 2022 1st round pick.
This trade made too much sense and it finally happened, as Wentz was reunited with the offensive coordinator who oversaw his best years, Frank Reich. With no long-term QB on the roster, with loads of cap space, and a roster ready to compete, Wentz was one of the last veteran QBs available, and the Colts roster is uniquely built to coax the “good” Carson Wentz out of his shell. His contract is constructed in a way that makes it easy for Indianapolis to move on after next season, or for virtually no cost in two seasons.
Meanwhile, the Eagles make their QB decision a couple of months earlier. It was painfully clear that Wentz not only wanted, but needed a change of scenery, he was never going to bounce back with a new coach and the terrible supporting cast in Philadelphia, and the media atmosphere in Philly had already moved on from Wentz.
There’s no doubt that Wentz is one of the special talents at the QB position, the real question is if he’s truly broken, or if Reich can fix him. If Reich can work his magic, which he’s done for Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and others - the Colts have made a great move. If not, they lost a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a chance at a premier QB. If there was one place that Wentz can resurrect his career, it’s Indianapolis, and lo and behold - here he is.
And another marquee, more recent move has occurred - as the NFC West gets stronger. JJ Watt, star DE has signed with the Arizona Cardinals… because 49ers.
You might think - well, JJ Watt has been declining. This is true, but just two seasons ago, Watt had 16 sacks. He’s played 16 games twice over the past three seasons, signifying that he may be starting to stay healthy. And although Watt had around 5 sacks this season, it was despite being the most double teamed EDGE defender in football, with a ridiculous 30.1% of his snaps resulting in him being double teamed. That’s a sizable impact and it will be amplified on a much better team.
Not only has there been mass QB turnover, possibly with more to come (DeShaun Watson, Derek Carr), this also happens to be one of the most talented QB draft classes of all time, not an exaggeration. This QB market is saturated. But it’s not only at QB.
The offensive tackle class, the cornerback class, wide receivers, all of them are very talented this season.
Let’s look at things from the positional value standpoint.
No matter how you slice it, it’s pretty clear that this is the key point for Shanahan and Lynch. Through all the needs, BPAs, trade up and trade down, whatever, Shanahan and Lynch have prioritized positional value over everything else.
It’s now infamous, the 49ers draft strategy of prioritizing the defensive line over anything else.
But nothing says it more than this: Since Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch took over, they’ve spent significant draft capital in the first three rounds on just these positions:
DL (Thomas, Bosa, Kinlaw)
OL (McGlinchey)
QB (Beathard)
LB (Foster, Warner)
CB (Witherspoon, Moore - the original plan for Tarvarius Moore was to move him to CB)
WR (Pettis, Samuel, Hurd, Aiyuk)
While LB is not considered a conventionally premium position, some teams (Steelers) have prioritized it and have had success with it, and one could argue that Robert Saleh’s presence contributed heavily to this, and with another LB background DC in DeMeco Ryans, I don’t expect that to change. The rest of these positions, specifically OL and DL, are conventionally considered premium positions.
What would that suggest about this year’s draft choice?
It’s almost surely going to be a QB, OL, or CB. The 49ers have invested a mass amount into the DL, and as long as Fred Warner is on the roster, the 49ers won’t spend another high pick at LB. WR is where things get interesting, but I suspect that this will be less prioritized, maybe for the 2nd or 3rd round. If an elite prospect like Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, or Devonta Smith falls however, maybe Shanahan can’t help himself.
The 49ers don’t have another starting CB on the roster and Jason Verrett isn’t a lock to return. The OL issues have been well documented, and well, I don’t need to outline the QB conundrum further.
Targets at #12 overall could include:
QB:
Justin Fields, OSU
Zach Wilson, BYU
Trey Lance, NDSU (likeliest to fall)
Mac Jones, Alabama (likely reach)
OL:
Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (best fit)
Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC (likely reach)
CB:
Caleb Farley (best fit), Virginia Tech
Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
My advice? Start watching a lot of tape and film on these seven guys, because it’s highly likely that one will don the red and gold come this fall. Knowing the 49ers draft history though, you could maybe bump up South Carolina guys (Deebo, Kinlaw), and knock Alabama guys (Foster).
And to hammer the point across, the 49ers have made a number of marquee signings and trades, and all have come at the same positions:
OL (Richburg, Williams)
DL (Ford)
LB (Alexander)
CB (Sherman)
QB (Garoppolo)
WR (Garcon)
Only one has not come at a premium position (Juszczyk).
Do not pick a mid-round “project” QB.
If the 49ers are going to draft a QB, and look for that QB to be a starter, it has to be in the 1st round.
Period.
History is not kind to teams that half-effort (to put it lightly) the QB position. If the QB position is questionable enough that you consider taking one in the first four rounds, you should be taking one in the 1st.
Hoping for a Tom Brady, a Russell Wilson, or a Dak Prescott in the mid to late rounds is not only extremely unrealistic, it’s virtually impossible. You’d have to be incredibly lucky to find a starter level QB in those rounds. It just does not happen. Drafting Jamie Newman or Kellen Mond is strictly for a backup, the “developmental” mid round QB never works.
The list of QBs drafted in the 2nd to 4th round over recent history speaks for itself.
Jalen Hurts
Jacob Eason
James Morgan
Drew Lock
Will Grier
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Mason Rudolph
Kyle Lauletta
DeShone Kizer
Davis Webb
CJ Beathard
Josh Dobbs
Christian Hackenberg
Jacoby Brissett
Cody Kessler
Connor Cook
Dak Prescott
Cardale Jones
Garrett Grayson
Sean Mannion
Bryce Petty
Yeah, not a good list. One guy on this list is a high level starter - Prescott. Everyone else have shown none, or almost no indication that they are going to be long-term starters in the NFL, with the exception of Eason who has not played in his career yet.
The odds are against your favor if you want a “developmental QB”, and the last thing you do is go cheap at the position. People have complained of the decade-long instability and volatility the 49ers have had, in comparison with other teams, it might be because those teams have had long-term stability at QB. When you haven’t had a real long-term answer at QB for an entire decade, you only have yourself to blame. Why?
The 49ers haven’t spent a 1st round pick on the most important position in football since 2005. They only have themselves to blame. It’s OK if QBs bust. That’s part of football, anyone can bust. What’s not OK is spending a combined two 2nd round picks, and a 3rd round pick in a full decade on the QB position and then wondering, “hey?! why don’t we have a long-term starter”.
There are just five teams that have gone longer without drafting a 1st round QB.
New England Patriots (2000, Brady)
New Orleans Saints (FA 2005, Brees)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2004, Roethlisberger)
Dallas Cowboys (2003, Romo - 2016, Prescott)
Seattle Seahawks (FA 2001, Hasselbeck - 2012, Wilson)
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE TEAMS has had massive success by lucking out with a QB early, and never looking back.
The 49ers are nowhere near as successful as these teams, nor have they found a QB even close to the caliber of any of these QBs (with the exception of Hasselbeck - even that’s questionable) - yet they draft, through multiple regimes, like they have a HOF QB. It’s OK to take a risk.
I did a statistical breakdown of QB's by draft position a few years ago and came away convinced that drafting a QB after the first few picks of the 2nd round is a waste. Using a very generous definition of "Quality Starter" (basically more than a single year as a decent starting QB) roughly 50% of QB's taken by the 40th pick end up being quality starters. After the 40th pick that number drops to 5%.
To me, that says that anyone with a 50/50 chance of being a good QB is gone by the time the worst teams make their 2nd pick. There are outliers like Dak, Brady, and RW, but those are the 5% vs the 95% that amount to nothing. There's a 95% chance you're wasting a pick taking a QB mid to late.
I think you’re forgetting just how great Colin Kaepernick was. 😬🤭