Instability and the 49ers QB situation: Mismanagement paired with misfortune
John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have had their successes. That doesn't render them immune to criticism.
Trey Lance has seen nothing but instability for virtually his entire career. He only truly began playing quarterback in high school. He only began starting for varsity in his junior year of high school. Despite being the top-ranked QB recruit in Minnesota, Lance barely garnered any interest as a D1-FBS QB and instead chose North Dakota State.
After just two short years of starting, with seldom throwing involved as well, Lance again had to redshirt and sat his entire first season as a true freshman The season after, one of the most successful QBs in NDSU history - now Chargers QB Easton Stick - declared for the NFL Draft and Lance won the job as a redshirt freshman. He then rumbled his way to arguably the greatest season from a QB in FCS history, winning virtually every award at the age of 19.
Yet again, instability struck. The COVID-19 pandemic began, and while Lance’s FBS peers such as Zach Wilson and Justin Fields were able to play and get valuable reps and game film, Lance instead was relegated to one, last-minute exhibition game.
Draft season came and went, and on draft night, Lance found out minutes before, just as everyone else did, that he would be a San Francisco 49er. From there, the instability only continued.
While Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson both knew they’d be starters from Week 1 and garnered valuable first-team reps throughout the offseason, training camp, and eventually the preseason… while Mac Jones battled with Cam Newton in an actual QB competition and won it, earning his QB1 role and garnering valuable reps…. both Lance and fellow Quincy Avery understudy Justin Fields were subjected to strictly QB2 reps during camp and the preseason. Fields now has taken over as the starter but has suffered from the same instability that Lance has, while their peers do not.
Lance has gotten the short end of the stick. While there’s not a doubt that the 49ers supporting cast (when healthy) is better than those of the other four QBs, the way which Lance has been jerked around throughout this season isn’t conducive to developing a young, uber-talented QB.
Lance got virtually zero first-team reps save for trick, gadget plays during training camp. Lance barely received any first-team reps behind a first-team OL during preseason. Lance was relegated to scout-team and strictly QB2 duty during practices.
As soon as Jimmy Garoppolo went down against Seattle, Lance was thrust in - without the benefit of any true preparation that your typical starting QB would be expected to have. He started rough but finished strong. After that, Lance finally got a week of prep against the only undefeated team left in football - the Arizona Cardinals. Lance again, by Kyle Shanahan’s own words, played well enough to win. Brian Baldinger, often known for praising this front office and coaching, issued a scathing message, burning Kyle Shanahan’s play calling and the performance of the team around Lance against Arizona. And rightfully so. Lance had his own issues during the game but was seldom helped by his team like a rookie QB should be.
Lance ran so much during the game that he was inevitably going to get banged up. Indeed, he now has a minor knee sprain that looks to be keeping him out of this week’s marquee matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. After just one week of starting reps, Lance goes straight back to strictly backup reps, and now nursing an injury, cannot even practice and get those valuable reps that he so desperately needs.
Indeed, the 49ers are 2-3 with plenty of time and easy games left in the schedule. It’s not unreasonable to believe that starting the veteran QB in Jimmy Garoppolo is the way to maximize a roster that still can play. But every ex-49ers player, ex-NFL player, coach, you name it - they all agree after watching Lance - he needs to play. He needs to get his reps and develop. How can the 49ers pull off this balancing act of development and winning at the same time? They can’t. It’s mismanagement. Ask yourself if Lance had spent the entire offseason as QB1, gone through his lumps early, how much better would he be right now?
In fact, look no further than the case study for “young, physically talented but raw QB from small school” - Josh Allen. Allen credits the stability that has surrounded him since coming to Buffalo for his drastic improvement.
With Brian Daboll sticking around after an offseason in which he became a hot name following Allen's breakout season, the Bills are ready to run it back in 2021. Allen is well aware of his good fortune when it comes to organizational stability.
"It creates a very good space," Allen said, via the team's official site. "Just being able to talk with guys in a very comfortable fashion, being in the same system now going on the fourth year and having that rapport that I have with Daboll and (quarterbacks) Coach (Ken) Dorsey and really understanding our offense in and out and being able to relay that to my teammates.
"I've always said that the job of the quarterback is to be an extension of the offensive coordinator and have to understand what he wants in certain situations and by me knowing that I get to relay that to my teammates and allow us to try to have better success on the field. It's a blessing to be in this situation, not many people have that luxury of being in the same system and understanding and knowing guys on a personal level for as long as I have, so definitely blessed here."
It’s not the 49ers fault that Lance endured so much instability early in his career and in college. But they need to recognize that when they selected Lance, they had to make some sacrifices to give him the much-needed day to day stability that he needs.
And the thing that makes it so tough to swallow is the fact that instability at the QB position has been the name of the game for this team, at least since the early Harbaugh years. Jimmy Garoppolo was once considered the future of this franchise, and between his propensity to get injured combined with the lack of stability at the QB coach spot, in addition to the team around him being often impacted by injury or roster turnover, the development of the once-promising QB was stymied. It doesn’t help that Garoppolo is one of the most physically limited QBs in football, among the slowest and with an average at best arm, but there’s no doubt that lack of continuity for Garoppolo was harmful.
The 49ers cannot afford to keep jerking a young, 21 year old QB around like this. Not only does he deserve stability after such a unique and tough path to the NFL, but he needs that stability. And that doesn’t have to mean that he starts every game here on out. He may not be ready for that. But it does mean that the 49ers owe it to him to give him an opportunity to earn more reps through steady .
While his four peers now are the starters, Lance is subjected to sitting on the bench, unsure of what is coming in every game with Garoppolo’s shaky game-to-game status. Stability is key, and right now, the 49ers have not correctly provided that to their young prospect.
Again, not all of this falls on the 49ers. It’s not their fault that Lance had an entire season taken away from him by a pandemic. It’s not their fault he wasn’t recruited by big schools or didn’t play QB until later in his football career. It’s not their fault that Jimmy Garoppolo is serviceable when on the field but his biggest concern remains staying on the field to begin with. They planned for injuries, that’s why they kept both Garoppolo and Lance. But walking the tightrope has benefits and flaws, and if they want to replicate the ideal development curves that QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, DeShaun Watson, and Justin Herbert - all case studies in their different ways for Trey Lance and his unique situation with the 49ers - they must also begin to provide the stability that all of these QBs had early in their career, either through consistent starting opportunity or through consistent development while sitting.
Trying to have the cake and eat it too only makes it so Lance isn’t able to ever establish a rhythm and truly adjust, develop in game. Consistency is key, and right now, the 49ers are unstable from top to bottom, constantly bombarded with injuries and drama at every stop. The QB position isn’t free from this.
Shanny play calling was abysmal against Arizona. Nobody is gonna win football games doing QB draws on 3rd and 5