What do the 49ers need to do to help Jimmy Garoppolo?
Garoppolo is entering his 8th year in the NFL, and his 5th in the Shanahan offense. It's go time for Jimmy if the 49ers ride with him for 2021, but what can they do to help him? Diving into the stats.
(Santa Clara, CA) - While most of the offseason debate has been about if the 49ers should pursue another QB to Jimmy Garoppolo, who it should be, what’s the cost to acquire, and treasure troves of hot takes like this one, “done deals”, and what not, there hasn’t been much conversation about if the 49ers keep Garoppolo - what should they do with him?
For many 49ers fans, this is an extremely nuanced question. It’s the age old “chicken or the egg” - did the Kyle Shanahan offense shape Garoppolo into what he is right now, or did Garoppolo force Kyle Shanahan to alter his own offense. The data suggests the latter, and guys like Steve Young - who worked in the Shanahan offense, have said so themselves:
“It’s about the relationship between Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy," Young added. "That’s what matters. They’ve created a system that Jimmy can be successful in. It’s not the system that Kyle wants to run.
“Kyle is going to be a coach there for 10 years. He will be one of the long-term coaches when he’s finally done. Does he want Jimmy, to concoct an offense for him, or does he want somebody who can actually be expansive and do all the things that are in (his) brain rattling around? That’s what Kyle wants to do."
I think I speak for most 49ers fans when I say that I like Steve Young; but it’s hard to take these remarks as much more than what they are on the surface - his opinion. He’s not, from what we know, involved in 49ers personnel decisions or in the locker room - although he may still talk to Mike Shanahan.
But back to the point. The data, as cited earlier in numerous articles I’ve written, suggests that Shanahan crafted an offense around Garoppolo. YAC Bros and Kittle wasn’t only what Shanahan liked in receivers, just look at his Atlanta days. Drafting and acquiring guys like Aiyuk, Samuel, Kittle, and more is intentionally done to take advantage of Garoppolo’s skillset more than anything else.
The 49ers may stick with Garoppolo for 2021. This would also pretty much guarantee, barring a disastrous 2021 campaign - that Garoppolo would also be the starter in 2022 and finish out the once record-breaking contract he signed, following that five game stretch in 2017. Why?
If Garoppolo is going to be replaced in 2022, it has to be through the draft. Expecting the QB market to materialize like it did this season with trades and FA is unreasonable and unrealistic. And if it was to be through the draft - that would mean the 49ers would likely have to move up in the draft, costing them future draft capital, to start a rookie. The 2022 QB class is nowhere near as gifted as this historically talented one we have upon us this season, although it is still very good. But it’s very top-heavy, although things could change.
Starting a rookie is popularly spelled as D-O-O-M for most 49ers fans (in reality, far from it), and most prefer the route of drafting a QB and letting them sit for one year. So if you want Garoppolo as the starter in 2022, it’s OK to pass on acquiring a future QB this season. If you aren’t sure about that, or don’t want that - this is the window. Right now.
If the 49ers are going to stick with Jimmy, they need to put him in the best possible position to perform better, and the key word there is better. Garoppolo’s 2019 play was good, but it’s not going to be enough for a team that will be reeling from a loss of talent next season - and a team, as much as I hate to say it, that will have a lot of injuries as well. Garoppolo not only needs to stay healthy, and bounce back, he needs to rise to another level for the 49ers to stay in contention. That means taking advantages of his strengths. How do the 49ers do that? Let’s dive into it.
Change the offense.
Yeah, we are going to go that drastic.
This is where the crossroads of coach vs. QB are reached. While the best coaches are able to adapt their systems to accommodate and accentuate their QBs, Shanahan has done that to a point of straining his own system. The extreme concentration of easy, short throws is not traditionally what Kyle Shanahan does - but it’s what fits Garoppolo’s skillset with his quick release, and great short area accuracy (for the most part).
More shotgun, less under-center.
Garoppolo isn’t the best fit, as most believe in this offense. He’s a shotgun QB. That’s not a bad thing. That’s also not been Mike Shanahan’s offense, and it’s not been Kyle’s either. They are play-action offenses, with a QB under center.
It’s hard not to come back to this exact tweet. Garoppolo, simply put - is nowhere near as effective under center, as compared to in the shotgun. And Shanahan knows this. But he can’t do much about it. You might be thinking, but he did it in 2017? They incorporated Patriots concepts and that’s what made Garoppolo better right?
In 2017, Jimmy Garoppolo had 187 total dropbacks in 5 games.. Of those 187 dropbacks, 119 of them were in the shotgun. 63.6%. Keep that number in mind.
Fast forward to 2019. he had 524 regular season dropbacks in 16 games. 339 of those dropbacks were in the shotgun. 64.69%, very similar, in fact, a bit higher.
Garoppolo was great from the shotgun in 2019, but he was average if not below average in 2017 while in the shotgun. It’s clear that Shanahan could use some more shotgun in the offense to make sure Garoppolo can consistently have a clear field of vision and more time to process. But frankly, it’s already been done. Matt Ryan’s percentage of dropbacks in the shotgun in his MVP season, widely regarded as the Shanahan offense at the best - roughly 57%. The offense has already been changed, but it could be done even more drastically.
Slot targets need upgrade.
A lot of 49ers fans have also brought up Trent Taylor’s regression, saying that Garoppolo trusted Taylor in 2017.
75 of Garoppolo’s 178 attempts in 2017 were to the slot. That corresponds with a top five passer rating when targeting receivers in the slot during 2017, and his target rate to the slot was 42.1%, a very high number.
In 2019. 218 of his 476 attempts were to the slot. 45.7%. His passer rating remained top 5. Again, not much of a difference there, not in volume nor performance. If anything, Garoppolo missed Marquise Goodwin far more than Trent Taylor, though that’s a story for a different time.
With his high reliance on the slot and inside the numbers passing, the 49ers could definitely look to upgrade at that spot. While some may hold out hope for Jalen Hurd, someone like Elijah Moore from Ole Miss, or Marquez Stevenson from Houston would be an ideal draft selection.
But the slot, while important for Garoppolo, isn’t where he dropped off either. It’s as simple as one thing.
Downfield, volume passing.
It’s been beaten like a dead horse, but it’s really the key to unlocking this offense.
Let’s go back to 2017.
In 5 starts, Garoppolo racked up a 67.4% completion, 1560 yards, 7 passing TDs (3.9% TD), 5 interceptions (2.8% INT), while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. These numbers… don’t exactly jump off the screen. Extrapolate these to 16 games, and it’s a mixed bag.
67.4% completion, 4992 passing yards, 22 TDs, 16 INT. While the TD and INT numbers don’t exactly scream franchise QB, the completion and yards do. I don’t know if it’s because of Garoppolo’s play only, or it’s because of the system.
64.5%, 4714 yards, 25 TDs, 22 INTs.
This is similar production to what Garoppolo put up. Except this was Nick Mullens in his 16 career starts. Garoppolo is light years ahead of Nick Mullens, but we need him to put the pieces together in 2021 if he returns.
It goes back to downfield passing.
Garoppolo in 2017 averaged 9.2 intended air yards per attempt - tied for 8th highest in the league. In 2019, this number was 6.5, 3rd lowest in the league. It’s really as simple as this: Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan need to go downfield. And that doesn’t mean deep passing necessarily, it means attempting, in general, passes that travel further downfield. Instead of the sweet spot being almost behind the LOS and within the first 5 yards, Garoppolo needs to be focusing on the 10-15 yard range much more.
This is why the eye-test with Garoppolo during 2017 was so different as compared to in 2019. He was attempting harder passes, more passes (6 passes more per game compared to 2019, which is almost a 100 passes over a full season for perspective), further passes - and even if his TDs and INTs weren’t exactly good, his yard totals, efficiency, and in general, how the offense performed was so impressive. Especially with a bad team. Every single one of Garoppolo’s starts in 2017 were with 30 attempts or more, last season in 2019, Garoppolo averaged 29.75 attempts per game, and including playoffs, 28.1 attempts.
Mobility?
Sure, the mobility with the ACL tear was an issue. In 2017, Garoppolo had 29 of his 178 attempts come outside of the pocket. 16.3%. Of those five games that he started from Week 13 to Week 17, Garoppolo was #3 in the league in outside of the pocket attempts.
Fast forward to 2019. Garoppolo in his 16 games had 54 total passes attempted outside of the pocket, of his 476 total attempts, that ranked 20th in the league. 11.3%. It’s a substantial difference, but it’s not enough to explain the eye-test discrepancy, and the chances of Garoppolo regaining this mobility are slim. He may improve, but many people who suffer ACL tears never are the same.
Improve the interior.
Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel are three weapons that most QBs not named Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes would die to have. I believe Aiyuk can be legitimately better than Kittle, and Kittle is the best TE in the league. He’s got his weapons.
While the interior offensive line clearly needs to be upgraded, that’s not the main problem with Garoppolo’s play. He is the root, and if our plan for Jimmy is to keep him for the next two seasons - he is the solution. Draft Rashawn Slater if he’s there at #12, look for OL upgrades like Alex Mack, without a doubt these will help - but even without them, Garoppolo needs to do it, himself.
OL play is not going to solve every one of Garoppolo’s problems. It will definitely make things better, but let’s keep this in mind: in 2019, when not under pressure, Garoppolo had the 12th highest independent passer rating in the league among qualifiers (independent means they add dropped passes to the yard total, and dropped INTs to the INT, to properly evaluate the QB and minimize supporting cast). He had the 10th highest completion percentage.
Those are great numbers, absolutely, but the 49ers need more. You might be thinking… that’s damn near top ten, what’s the problem with that? Well, again, no team is ever going to have perfect pass pro, and the QB will have to make throws under pressure - and they will have to be downfield. Garoppolo when under pressure and throwing more than five yards in the air is throwing more interceptions (4th highest rate) than TDs, for a passer rating that ranks 15th in the league. Not terrible, but the turnovers are a problem - the only other QBs throwing more picks than TDs under pressure, past five yards in 2019 are:
Philip Rivers
Matt Ryan
Josh Allen
Andy Dalton
Jameis Winston
Kyle Allen
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Sam Darnold
While the shotgun, slot, and out of the pocket statistics show some difference from Garoppolo’s perceived performance in 2017 to his performance in 2019, it’s clear that the downfield passing game once existed in this version of the Kyle Shanahan offense. Garoppolo has never had the deep ball in the NFL, and I don’t expect that to magically change in his 8th season; but he can easily increase his frequency of attempting passes to the intermediate area. He’s done it before!
Would implementing more shotgun and passing the ball more be risky? Absolutely, especially with Garoppolo’s already alarming knack for turnovers.
But it’s a necessary evil. As good as our run scheme, run blocking, and Raheem Mostert/Jeff Wilson are, most of the time; when it comes down to playing from behind, you need to be able to trust your QB and be able to really pass the ball well. I’m not saying that the 49ers didn’t do that last season, I’m saying it needs to be done more, because I believe that’s the only way to unlock Garoppolo himself.
Garoppolo was a fine QB in 2019, but the 49ers will need more in 2021 if they are to push for a championship, and the same will likely go for 2022. And while a lot of his problems will be alleviated by a better interior offensive line, a better slot WR (Jalen Hurd, you still there?), and better playcalling, it comes down to him and Kyle Shanahan deciding to let it rip. Garoppolo at his purest form is a gunslinger as we all remember, not a game-manager. It’s time to let him sink or swim, the risk is high, so is the reward.
Let him throw it more. Make him throw downfield and to the sidelines. Make him go out and win games, consistently. Give him a better offensive line, upgrade at slot WR, play more shotgun. And hope for the best. Get him another deep threat maybe.
Unleash high volume Garoppolo, and if it doesn’t work, you’ve got your answer about if he can be the franchise QB. If it does, that question also has an answer, and one that will make a lot of people happy.
Although it’s not sexy pick(s), I’d like the 49ers to use their 1st and 3rd round picks on o-line; as I feel both Fairly and Surtain will be gone; and at 12 they’re are very solid guys that can play multiple line positions, e.g. Slater, Vera-Tucker. Then I’m Round two get the best corner available, e.g. Asante Samuel, Tyson Campbell; and in round three take Josh Myers or Quinn Meinerz, solidly the line, that’s the way to go; as truly having a strong o-line never hurt anyone.
Site looks good. Layout is clean and should be an easy transition from that “other” place. I look forward to reading and interacting here.