49ers Fact or Fiction: Pre-draft wild trade edition
A group discussion with FTN staff about all things 49ers in wake of the 49ers move up.
Welcome back to another edition of 49ers Fact or Fiction. The articles where a has-been assistant blog manager (that’s Pat) talks with die hard 49ers fans and tries to get to the root of some of these issues.
As you know, 49ers Twitter has been set ablaze again, akin to the start of a run ‘n gun video game from the 90s. The news just won’t quit. First we get the word that the 49ers mortgaged the farm to move up to spot three (three consecutive first rounders and a third rounder got them the pick). That almost guarantees they will take a quarterback.
Then we found that Jimmy Garoppolo is (obviously) pissed off and Kyle Shanahan doesn’t give a damn who knows he’s taking a new signal caller. So let’s go through today’s contestants:
Patrick Holloway (Moderator): Jimmy G and I have something in common: we both got terrible news that our jobs relating to the 49ers were going to be gone in a matter of months.
El Shorts: DID SOMEBODY SAY SHORTS?!
Riqonator: We’re still waking him up after the trade news.
SportyMiner: Awaiting baby #2 and wondering what the hell I was thinking? Representing FTN International.
Shanafandom: Yes, he is still alive.
Pat: Jimmy Garoppolo will not play a full 17 games in 2021.
El Shorts: I have a feeling that many of my other contributors today will be saying this is fact, so I’ll play devil’s/fool’s advocate and say fiction. It’s easy to say that Jimmy will not play a full 16 games because of his injury riddled history, but one can also argue that he only gets injured every other year, so that means he’ll play this season injury free! However, with the addition of a potential young franchise QB at the helm, the odds are shrinking on the expectation that Garoppolo plays the whole season, whether it be to injury or succession. I think it’s a matter of believing whether “running it back” two years after your Super Bowl run will actually equal success in the 2021 season. If you believe that last season was derailed only from injuries, then Jimmy’s your starter. Let’s also add in the fact that no rookie QB has ever taken their team to the Super Bowl, and you have a case for why Shanahan has kept Jimmy still around and may opt to sit the rookie. Remember that Shanny has invested three first round picks in the next face of the franchise - he probably wants to make sure that he brings him up right and not rush him. I’m of the belief that Shanahan will run it back until it’s clear that the team won’t be in the playoffs with Jimmy as the starter - they’ll turn to the backup in a lost season.
SportyMiner: Fact - Jimmy is injury prone enough that Shanalynch decided to take the plunge and draft a new QB of the future. Had Jimmy not been injured so often I'm not sure this would have been the case. With a competent rookie QB as a backup, when(!) Jimmy picks up an injury I don't think Kyle will feel as pressured to rush Jimmy back in like he did with the ankle last year. Therefore, regardless of attempting to redshirt a rookie for season 1, if Jimmy gets a small injury that could be the end.
Furthermore, depending on who we draft, I think there's a good chance the rookie outplays Jimmy by wk 16 and Kyle will play whoever gives him the best chance of winning. You'd be a fool to say Fiction... Shorts...
Riqonator: Fact. When have you heard of a top three rookie QB ever sitting a full season? It just doesn’t happen. Unless Garoppolo - stays healthy the entire season, and balls out the entire season, both of which are unlikely to happen, Shanahan will be itching to try out his new guy at QB.
Shanafandom: Fact. When Alex Smith was starting just after Patrick Mahomes got drafted, Mahomes still had a game where he started. Granted, it was the final week, but it was still a game. The only way Garoppolo starts all 17 games is if he plays like a top 10 QB, doesn’t get hurt at all, and the rookie QB is really struggling during practice. And the 49ers would need to be in a very tight race for playoff seeding. And I see all of those happening being very unlikely.
Pat: If the 49ers do not make it to the playoffs in 2021, Kyle Shanahan will be on the hot seat.
SportyMiner: Fiction - A lot has to go wrong for Kyle to be in the hot seat. He's addressed the biggest blocker to us winning a super bowl in trading up for a QB in draft, has said they will rethink approach to signing/drafting players with injury history and he's maintained our top FAs. He's the best offensive mind in football and we think he's got an opportunity to unleash his play book in 2022 with a new QB at the helm... So how can he get on a hot seat? If he starts our rookie week 1 (perhaps after trading away Jimmy) and he turns out to be a bust come week 17. That's all I can think of.
No. Wait. If Kyle drafts McCorkle the seat will be very warm. If he plays this year and is bad…
Riqonator: Fiction - Kyle Shanahan, in my eyes, could go 0-16 next year and I’d still want him back. You simply just don’t let go of a young, enigmatic coach with the playcalling prowess and player relationship ability that he has. I’m willing to stick with him through the ups and downs.
Shanafandom: Fiction - As much as I’d love to play Devil’s Advocate, there’s no chance he leaves after this season. The only possibility is something off-field happening. No franchise should expect playoffs with a rookie QB. It is a tough position to learn in the NFL, and it is totally fine if 2021 results suffer to help the franchise in future seasons. Now if Garoppolo somehow starts all season (and I just said that won’t happen) and we miss playoffs, then there is an issue. But that issue would likely be Garoppolo being bad, the rookie QB not being ready, a brutal schedule, and another wave of injuries. If Shanahan gets on the hot seat, it will be the result of a proven QB bust after 2-3 seasons of failure. Not one during his rookie year.
El Shorts: Fiction - The only way Kyle Shanahan gets fired is if he goes on a drunken racist tirade after an 0-17 season blaming various nationalities and people. Or if he drafts Mac Jones. Regardless, the 49ers were lucky to have hired an offensive savant like Kyle, and with a new franchise QB on the way, Shanahan will have to be around to coach his guy up for the imminent future.
Riqonator: The 49ers should look at 2021 as a quasi-gap year, not as a Super Bowl contention year.
El Shorts: Fiction - You compete every year. With the amount of talent and more specifically, cheap young talent in players like Nick Bosa and Brandon Aiyuk, our Super Bowl window is open, but it won’t be all the time. Lynch has done a masterful job retaining many impactful starters such as Emmanuel Moseley, Jaquiski Tartt, Kyle Juszcyzk, and especially Trent Williams, so the Niners have the opportunity to “run it back” again. However, many of these deals are for one year (probably due to COVID constraining the salary cap), and if our players are as talented as we believe, they will be out of our price range in a year’s time. Resetting the QB position to a rookie contract will help alleviate some salary cap concerns, and if they pan out, your Super Bowl window is always open when you have a top tier QB at the helm. But ShannaLynch appear to be running it back with Garroppolo as the signal caller for now, so there’s a good chance that they’ll be looking to contend with all the short term talent they have minus the high-ankle sprains.
SportyMiner: Fiction - For two simple reasons:
If we didn't draft a rookie QB at #3, would you have asked the question? We have pretty much the same team as last 2 years and still (currently) have Jimmy to give us the same floor, so we're planning on being competitive.
We traded the next two years’ 1st round picks, so we don't have the draft capital to make significant improvements to the squad via the draft for another 3 years, so we better be competing as we can't retool like a normal gap year.
Just a thought, there's never been back-to-back Super Bowl winning teams with different QBs…
Shanafandom: Fact
I think the 49ers will be vying for playoffs and have over a 50% chance of getting in, depending on the draft. They obviously won’t tank this season. But a contender wants a Super Bowl, not a playoff game. And I can’t see any team with a starting rookie QB winning a Super Bowl. And to counter Sporty’s point, I’d like to mention that he listed Jimmy not playing a full season was fact. With the rookie coming in at some point, the team has changed from the past two seasons. It doesn’t mean the 49ers will be bad, it just means they likely won’t get a Lombardi this season. Which is totally fine for the long-term.
Pat: I’m going to take Riqonator’s place as he was telling us about this prompt for weeks. As for the 2020, there was way too many insane outliers to make this a season you can pin on Kyle Shanahan’s coaching or the front office’s evaluation. Even Jed York has echoed these comments at some point (I don’t have a link, I’m trying to remember if he said anything somewhere…I think he did). The lack of OTAs, a more dedicated training camp, an effing offseason has put all of this into a very strange year. As for 2021? They have several people coming back on one-year deals but they are missing some of that unity they would have had in 2020 had COVID and MetLife Stadium not derailed the season. Therefore, this is FACT. Unlike the Rams, the 49ers are going to have plenty of money to play with in 2022 for the salary cap and plug the holes. They have a bazillion picks in 2021 that they hope can take some starting jobs and add depth. Add in the fact that Garoppolo will be off the books in 2022 and that will be the year for a Super Bowl run. 2021 - I still see them making the playoffs, but for reasons no one can explain, the NFC West is allowed to be a juggernaut while the NFC East can continue to be atrocious.
Pat: Even without DeForest Buckner, the 49ers defensive line won’t be just as good as 2019, it will be better in 2021.
SportyMiner: Fiction
I don't understand why it would be better? Bosa is coming off an ACL and cartilage damage. Ford is broken. Solly has gone. Buckner is pro-bowling for the Colts. Kinlaw just had an operation on his knees, you know, the red flag that took him off several team's draft board? Hyder flashed and out priced himself and we replaced him with an OLB who admitted he has no pass technique. Armstead was a shadow of himself without his (much better) running mate and there's a lack of decent EDGE in the draft - we know we won't draft one in the first round.
So… no, that's ludicrous. Fiction.
Riqonator: Fiction
I want to believe, but I can’t. We are replacing Dee Ford with Samson Ebukam. There’s no guarantee that Bosa will be back to form next season, he may take time to reach his previous level of play. Armstead had a bad season last year, how do we know he’s going to bounce back? And Javon Kinlaw was extremely disappointing - despite already having very low expectations for Year 1. I just can’t see it. The only way I could see it is if Kinlaw had a massive year two jump, which just doesn’t seem all that likely right now.
El Shorts: Fiction
Hard to replicate how successful and truly dominant that 49ers defensive line was back in 2019. A third year Bosa sounds very scary of course, but then you have to factor in that it will be his first season back from a torn ACL. Armstead and Jones are two years older, Buckner is replaced by a currently inferior Kinlaw, and Dee Ford is M.I.A (though I wouldn’t say no to trading him to Miami). The Niners were able to get Samson Ebukam, but I see it as more of a rotational edge rusher ala Kerry Hyder last season, and we’d be lucky to get the production we got from him. Definitely not expecting better at all.
Shanafandom: Fiction
The 2019 DLine was rare, and you can’t expect that production year to year with different players. Yes, Kinlaw could keep developing and become a real threat. Yes, Bosa should be back. But Buckner is still gone, Ford is a huge question mark, and I’m not sure what to expect from Armstead. I think we can surpass 2020 production with competent edge rushers, but surpassing 2019 isn’t happening.
About the first point, it is like a divorced couple having a good business together but forced to live in the same house, with the friend of one of them living there as well. It could work as long as business is good but it only takes a few difficulties to shatter everything. I think everybody would like avoid this, but it will depend by one team making an offer and it seems unlikely at the moment.
My takes:
1) Garoppolo won't play 17 games. Health, poor play, great play that locks up the #1 seed early. Lots of reasons he'd miss a start, I just don't like the odds.
2) The Shanahan "hot seat" isn't even a possibility until the 2023 season. At that point it'll be the 3rd year for whichever QB we take 3rd overall. By the end of that season, we should definitively know if we have a "Franchise QB." If ShanaLynch hits on that pick we will be perennial contenders. If they draft a bust, it will be 7 years of failing to adequately address the QB position and everyone involved should be fired.
3) The 49ers should be "all in" to win the Super Bowl, and have operated as such all offseason. All those guys signed one-year deals to contend. We ARE a contender, and need to maintain that perception to be able to sign similar deals that help the team next offseason. And really, we're not far off from the team that went to the Super Bowl.
4) ...Except for the D-Line. 2019's D-Line was historically great. When Bosa and Ford were on the field together, the entire defense was in "All Time Great" territory. Betting that we'd equal that, with Bosa coming off an ACL tear, Ford questionable to ever play, and Kinlaw looking mediocre as a rookie is a fool's bet.