Breaking: Jason Verrett out for the year with torn ACL, Raheem Mostert out 8 weeks with torn knee cartilage
Worst-case scenario for the DB room has already happened, and it's not even Week 2.
This feeling is too familiar. Yes, the 49ers got out of Detroit with a win. They scored the most points of any team in the NFL in Week 1. What’s not to be happy about?
A lot.
Let’s start with the injuries, mainly Jason Verrett. Let’s be clear, Jason Verrett was possibly the worst-case scenario in terms of the one player on defense that the 49ers could not afford to lose. It’s also terrible for Verrett - at the age of 30, with a torn achilles and more already in his past, Verrett’s career might be over, at the least, his coverage ability impacted severely.
One might say that Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are more valuable, and they would be right in that evaluation. The difference is that the 49ers have proven that they can be a top 10 defense without Bosa (The 49ers were 6th in DVOA on defense last season), and they also have stronger depth at LB, which is a position devalued in the modern NFL. Although Warner is an absolute stud there and irreplaceable, there are ways to scheme around not having the best LB in football.
There’s no way to scheme around bad corners, even with an elite pass rush, bad corners will lose you games. In any scheme and in any case. The 49ers have gotten by with average to above average corners that get the job done over the last couple of years, but the CB room is now barren. Deommodore Lenoir is very promising but he still remains a rookie, and a 5th round pick at that - a matchup that any of DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or Cooper Kupp will relish. There’s no doubt that Lenoir has started off very promising. He allowed just a 39.4 passer rating yesterday, but faces a challenge next week in fellow rookie and Heisman winner DeVonta Smith.
Emmanuel Moseley, once healthy, will take over at the CB1 spot. Let’s be clear, Moseley is a solid corner, but he has never been a CB1 type of player and likely never will be - he’s a fringe CB2. Many remember his strong play in 2019, but do not forget that Moseley had a very up and down campaign in 2020, the last time we saw him on the field.
There is no way to tiptoe around it, this injury is devastating. More devastating than the actual injury is that it happened so early. There are 16 games left. That means 16 games that Emmanuel Moseley, the only above average corner with NFL experience left on the roster, has to stay healthy. Nobody is going to take that bet, especially because Moseley is already dealing with an injury.
What that means is two things: the 49ers need Deommodore Lenoir to keep surprising. If Lenoir can be an above average corner in Year 1 as he looks to be on trajectory for, that could legitimately save this defense.
The other factor is Ambry Thomas. Thomas has been downright terrible, from his camp performance to his preseason performance to his game performance. He’s clearly not there confidence wise, and that’s among the most important things needed as a corner - it’s instrumental in everything a CB does. Thomas didn’t play last season either and was already a project anyways. He’s got the physical gifts and actually didn’t get “burned” in the sense of being beat badly downfield. Rather, he kept losing at the catch point. Thomas needs to step up, the 49ers could really use their 3rd round pick finding himself and becoming a playable defensive back, because right now, the playability of the cornerback room is in very shaky hands.
Verrett wasn’t the only major injury. Raheem Mostert exited the game with a knee injury and it’s now been confirmed to be torn knee cartilage. He will miss 8 weeks at minimum - and this injury if serious can lead to further long-term effects. Thankfully, while Verrett is irreplaceable, Mostert plays a position where the 49ers are very deep at, and not many were more impressive on offense yesterday than Elijah Mitchell, the 6th round pick out of Louisiana-Lafayette.
Mitchell is fast, elusive, and extremely balanced as a runner, his speed to power ability being elite and easily running through the first tackler consistently. Mitchell had 73 of his 104 rushing yards come after contact, which is great to see - it wasn’t just the blocking up front that let Mitchell have such a debut, he consistently made plays. His future looks really bright. He also forced 6 missed tackles on Sunday.
Lost in the injury discussion and the worry about allowing the Lions to get back in the game at the end was the strong game that Jimmy Garoppolo had. Yes, it was against a terrible team and most of the throws he made were quite easy, but he looked confident and poised in the pocket, which is encouraging. He also looked good on the move, both running and throwing - an encouraging sight. Overall, Garoppolo didn’t look like a vastly different player from 2019, but that’s OK. It’ll be interesting to see if he continues the strong play against a tougher opponent next week in the Eagles.
Another key takeaway: the DeMeco Ryans defense clearly has some stylistic differences in comparison with his predecessor’s defense. There was clearly too much Wide-9 being played on base downs which left the middle of the defense wide open, which the Lions continually gashed all game. It’s fixable, but the 49ers could really use the massive space-eater that is Javon Kinlaw back in the middle of the defensive line.
Overall, if not for the injuries and the odd 4th quarter struggles that the 49ers saw, this would be considered a good week. The defensive line was dominant, Dre Greenlaw was dominant, and the offense played well, at every position. Yet somehow… the loss of Jason Verrett makes everything seem insignificant.
There are ways to alleviate the loss of Verrett, but they’d have to be trades. CJ Henderson and Stephon Gilmore are on the market but both would be far too expensive to acquire, especially for a team already lacking draft capital for the next two seasons. Instead, the 49ers must look to the depth charts of teams and find players buried that could possibly start.
Michael Ojemudia has been a popular name, as he’s buried in the Denver depth chart, but I don’t believe Ojemudia, even though he is young and talented, is realistically worthy of starting - Deommodore Lenoir is already better, and assuming Moseley can stay healthy for most of the season, Moseley definitely is better as well.
Another name would be Andraez “Greedy” Williams from the Browns. Williams is very talented and was quite good in college, and has been better than Ojemudia… when on the field. The issue is that Williams has big-time injury issues, but he could come cheap, and the 49ers could look at him.
But at this point in the season especially with the remaining assets the 49ers possess, they will not be able to acquire a CB1. They are looking at Richard Sherman which was obviously going to be a course of action, but he’s league-average at this point in his career - which is OK. Regardless of any free agent signing or minor trade acquisition, cornerback is now the Achilles heel of this roster. In a division chock-full of WR talent, and in a conference where the main contender has not one, not two, but three All-Pro caliber WRs, this is a problem.
We may have just lost the nfc west title because of this. AZ,Rams and Seattle will feast on this secondary. My SB hopes have drop about 50 percent. Bad secondary equals no playoff run
Nice work, SirL. You've grown quite nuanced and savvy as an analyst! The FO's drafts, particularly this recent draft, have been ... substandard, if I may be kind. Banks (would a 4th round pick have been too high?), Sermon (is he running in sand?), Thomas (lost in the moors), et al, no premium picks spent on CBs, and now it comes home to roost. Verrett has always been brittle, so a little planning would've been prudent to draft and prepare a replacement of (with decent luck) commensurate skill. Might Henderson be snagged for some of the defensive line depth? Grasping at straws ...