Breaking down Trey Lance: Week 1 - NDSU vs. Butler

Play-by-play for the (at the time) 19 year old's first collegiate start.

Jun 03, 2021

Santa Clara - As OTAs continue, many still don’t know much about the new 49ers QB outside of a couple highlight reels and internet scouting reports (including ones that we have wrote). Well, starting today, we have the Trey Lance breakdown series - every play from each game, starting with his debut as a starter, against Butler. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to the all-22 so the breakdown is pretty limited in terms of breaking down the coverage and passing concepts. But the broadcast angle is still valuable to a lesser degree, and don’t worry, I have access to the all-22 for plenty of the other games he played, for future installments of this series.

Also yes, this is “Riqonator”. I changed the name to match the one that I go by on the Slack. Join, if you haven’t already!

Just a solid play all around. Not much here to really breakdown, but it’s good play design. #87, Noah Gindorff, basically sets a pick on #49 here, who’s responsible for the running back coming out of the backfield on this shoot route to the right. As soon as Lance recognizes that his RB has got some space, he gets it to the RB quick, and the RB is able to beat #49 to the sideline and get the first down. The pass was a bit low, but nothing serious. Quick and good recognition.

Kyle Shanahan didn’t pick Trey Lance for his running ability. It’s hard to ignore regardless. Lance’s ability to run the ball is going to be nightmarish in tandem with Deebo Samuel running jet sweeps, and with the 49ers OL clearing up lanes for him to take off. I don’t expect the 49ers to run Lance very much, but just the threat alone will be terrifying for defenses because he can do the above, if defenses don’t respect him. He doesn’t look super fast in most of his clips. But look at the ground he covers instead - when he breaks the tackle and passes the 30 yard line, it takes him well below 4 seconds after that to reach the end zone, despite not running in a straight line. That’s fast.

I-formation, under center. You can see him call out protections pre-snap, but I can’t tell you what the protections are, sadly. This is a curl route on the bottom of your screen from #1, Christian Watson. Great job by the WR to get separation at the top of his route. But this is also a nice play from Lance. It’s not a tough throw, but the pace at which he makes this throw is very good. His dropback and footwork are quick and clean, his subtle step up in the pocket helps avoid the edge rusher, and the pass is on target and thrown early enough that Watson could turn around and get some more yards after the catch. Overall, this is a winning play in the NFL.

Perfect throw. Man on the outside means that two go-routes really stretches the defense, and you can see the LBs and safeties bite on the play-fake, allowing the WRs to get behind the defense. Aside from the great ball-tracking displayed by #11, Phoenix Sproles, this is an awesome throw. High-arcing on a one v one deep, dropped right in the bucket. Good dropback from under center, good playfake. Just awesome all around. 53 yards in the air.

Another completion. Lance is now 4/4, and all three passes can be characterized as accurate. While this throw requires his TE to adjust, it’s done that way on purpose - leading his TE away from this DB, where the DB can’t make a hit and dislodge the football. Aside from the placement, quick decision, and correct decision, look at the pace that Lance throws with. It’s high velocity, velocity that hasn’t been seen since Colin Kaepernick’s last healthy years on a San Francisco team - only Lance doesn’t need a massive windup to create the same velocity.

The first (and only) bad play of the game for Lance, and one of a minuscule amount over his career. Lance bobbles the snap, and doesn’t dive on it at first, hoping he can pick it up and make a play. Instead, he looks up too early and never secures the ball, and boom - lost fumble. One of just two lost fumbles in his career. This was his first start, but regardless, just dive on it and live with… 3rd and 10, roughly.

Play-action bootleg, easy throw to the fullback here, #44. Lance shows some nice mobility and gets it out before the defender gets to him, and makes a good throw on the move. Not a tough throw, but a good one. Not much to see here, the pass was slightly behind, but in this scenario, that’s OK.

This is a questionable play for a couple reasons. This pass is underthrown, but the pass is a 50/50 ball. It’s meant to take advantage of a mismatch, Christian Watson is 6 foot 4 and matched up on a smaller corner. So the decision isn’t bad. The ball is in playable position for Watson, Watson gets his hands on it, but can’t hold on. But if this was thrown with say, new Arizona Cardinals CB Malcolm Butler in coverage instead of whoever #24 is, I think this could be an interception.

Now, this goes without saying - in the NFL, I’m not sure that the mismatch is bad enough that you even throw this 50/50 ball. And does the NFL WR come down with it anyways? But the ball was underthrown and it was a ball that could easily have gone the other way. This is a miss that any QB will have, none are perfect. However, unlike many Lance misses, his mechanics are fine. This was Lance’s only incompletion the entire game.

Next play, easy schemed open TD. You can’t see it from this angle, but in simple terms, the two TEs split their routes right when they reach the end zone, making the DBs choose which to cover - often leading to mistakes. Lance waits, reads who got open of the two TEs, and throws one of the easy throws he had to make all game. The patience in the pocket is good, even as his left guard gets driven pretty close to him. Ball placement is safe and good, a bit behind on purpose to not lead the TE out of the endzone.

Play action roll-out, a strike to Phoenix Sproles near the sideline, and good placement to keep Sproles inbounds so he can get a couple more yards. Again, the pace that the ball is thrown with is really good. When we are done with this series of Lance, go back and look at Jimmy G from 2019. After watching so much of the rookie QB class, when I went back and looked at 2019 Garoppolo, I was shocked at how his balls seemed to float. Now, it’s relative - Lance’s arm is good enough to make other QBs’ arms look bad. But it’s not hard to see the physical difference. This pass isn’t the best example, but holistically, the difference is clear.

Dime. He progresses to his third read, keeps the safety occupied, fires a great ball over the DB and behind to the point that the #20 can’t get there and dislodge this ball. This ball isn’t “placed behind”, it’s placed perfectly over one DB and led away from another. Lance also recognizes a mismatch, a TE on a slot corner, and exploits it. Also take note that Lance has a DL right in his face and is hit, but keeps his eyes downfield.

Just a normal 4 yard pickup - jet motion read, Lance keeps it up the middle and gets 4 yards. It’s a positive play, nothing else really to make note of.

Yeah, it’s not hard to see how he differs and why he has so much “potential”, compared to Garoppolo. QB draw on 3rd down doesn’t have the intention of getting the 1st, it’s for making the FG easier. The score is 29-0 at this point, Lance can easily just go down early, walk out of bounds. But he doesn’t - a blessing and curse. He won’t lower his shoulder in the NFL, but the easy cut, outrunning an angle, and finally lowering his shoulder on #24 is just proof of his physical gifts.

Lance is going to have an instant impact on naked bootlegs because he can make defenders miss, buy time, and make throws on the move like this. This throw is super easy, but buying time with multiple unblocked defenders coming right at you is hard. And it’s an incredibly valuable thing to have. He outruns angles that defensive lineman and linebackers think they have, and while the NFL will have LBs that won’t be outran or eluded as easily, it’s clear that Lance can do this.

Looks like Cover 3, Lance goes through multiple progressions, shuffles to avoid a rusher while keeping his eyes downfield, finds the open guy. The pass was high, but still catchable for this WR. Positive play, nothing crazy.

You thought we were done? Lance ends his day (midway through the third, which was mainly the reason for not having many passing attempts) with a 60 yard rumble, turning on the jets after breaking a tackle on a designed QB keeper up the middle. Game breaker.

Overall, a great game from Lance in his first collegiate start - he’s only 19 in these clips. There’s so much room to grow, but there’s already a really solid base - instincts, pocket presence, decision-making. It’s easy to see why Shanahan liked him.

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