As pads come on Tuesday, what should 49ers fans watch for?
We are entering the gauntlet of training camp.
It is just training camp, but it’s hard to not get excited about 49ers football. The pads come on tomorrow (no, really) - which means that the shape of the roster will start to take more defined form. Kyle Shanahan has indicated that many players will get more reps now, including players like Dee Ford, Jalen Hurd, and Nick Bosa, who have not been participating in 11 v. 11 drills quite yet. What specifically should 49ers fans watch for?
Trey Lance “competing” with Jimmy Garoppolo.
Through 5 days of camp, undoubtedly, nothing can be really made of the QB performance thus far. Lance and Garoppolo have been neck and neck when it comes to overall performance, with Lance perhaps having a slight edge so far. Depending on the reporter that you prefer, info can differ, but according to the premier 49ers reporter in the business right now - Matt Maiocco, Lance has been a bit better.
Maiocco has charted the first 5 days of eleven on eleven drills as such:
Jimmy Garoppolo: 37/59 (62.7% completion), 3 interceptions
Trey Lance: 31/50 (62.0% completion), 1 interception
Both are right around 62% completion, which is exactly what is meant by neck and neck. In addition, Lance has quite a bit of rushing production, and has completed a similar percentage while being generally more aggressive than Garoppolo. Those two points would give Lance an edge, but Garoppolo is playing against the first team defense, whereas Lance is playing against the second team defense. Because of that, it’s tough to do a direct comparison.
And this is not expected to change, as Kyle Shanahan stated in the post-practice presser that the plan has not changed with regards to reps, Garoppolo will continue to get the 1st string reps, and Lance the 2nd string. With that being said, it also should be mentioned that Lance isn’t working only with 2nd string players, just like he isn’t playing only against 2nd string players. The 49ers have rotated skill position players between the 1st, 2nd, 3rd teams.
Still, it’s hard to ignore what Lance has done as a mere rookie, just 5 days in. Impressing people like Maiocco shouldn’t be tossed aside, and although this isn’t quite a QB competition like many know it to be, it’s not exactly cemented in stone that Garoppolo will start Week 1. That is the likeliest scenario, but a lot can change. As pads come on, it will be important to see how this dynamic develops. Can Lance begin to challenge for the job? He’s currently on a good trajectory, but based on Shanahan’s latest comments, will need to turn it up another notch.
As of right now, it remains Garoppolo’s job, but there is more pressure than most people anticipated early on. It’s not a competition officially, but it could be at one point. Putting the pads on is the first step in that.
Shaking up the secondary.
The secondary has been the most questionable group on defense. Outside of Jason Verrett, Jimmie Ward, and K’Waun Williams, there are many questions. Jaquiski Tartt and Emmanuel Moseley remain on the COVID-19 list, and Tartt was already nursing a toe injury that was expected to keep him out of the start of camp. Tarvarius Moore tore his achilles earlier this offseason.
The first four days featured Tim Harris Jr, the 49ers 2019 6th round draft pick, opposite Jason Verrett. However, Harris Jr also sat out practice today with an injury, and Dontae Johnson left later as well. That opened the door for talented 3rd round pick Ambry Thomas to get reps, and he took advantage. Thomas was not targeted today. Thomas had struggled in past days, so it is a welcome sight that Thomas was able to have a good day against the “ones” today. Deommodore Lenoir has reportedly played well to start off, and he could also get reps with the CB depth up in the air.
There should be no question who is the starter at FS - Jimmie Ward can play. But as for strong safety, this might be more complex. It’s next to a lock that Jaquiski Tartt will start at SS, but as he remains out for COVID-19, players like Tony Jefferson, Talanoa Hufanga, and Tavon Wilson have been battling for reps at that spot. The depth at that spot is crowded and competitive, so they will need to prove versatility and special teams value in order to separate themselves.
Settling the slot receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are the top two WRs, but after that, things get more confusing. Early reports have indicated that veteran WR Mohamed Sanu has the lead for the WR3 spot - which remember, in the modern NFL, is basically a starting spot. However, Trent Sherfield has also played well in the first 5 days of camps, among the leaders in receptions. The 49ers are waiting to get Jauan Jennings back, following him being placed on the COVID-19 list earlier. Jennings should also insert himself quickly into the competition. The wildcard remains Jalen Hurd. Hurd is healthy, and is being eased into things. Hurd is expected to begin participating in team drills very shortly. Don’t expect much from the 3rd year Baylor product - this is a guy that was considered a project before his devastating back injury and torn ACL. Hurd would be a pleasant surprise.
River Cracraft, Travis Benjamin, and Austin Watkins Jr have not shown anything special at camp, and to a lesser degree, neither has Kevin White, although there are positive signs from White, with a TD reception today during eleven on eleven drills. White could be a sleeper for the final WR spot, but right now, the advantage would go to the draft picks in this room - Jauan Jennings and Jalen Hurd.
The 49ers sorely need more at this spot. The 49ers could wait til roster cuts to possibly snag a surprise cut. It’s puzzling as to why the 49ers haven’t taken a closer look at someone like Golden Tate, or Kenny Stills - both still effective, albeit declining WRs.
The 49ers could also swing a trade for former 1st round pick N’Keal Harry, also a former teammate of Brandon Aiyuk. The 49ers were known to have liked Harry quite a bit when he came out in the 2019 draft, and Harry would not be expensive to acquire. He certainly fits the prototype at WR3 for Kyle Shanahan.
Depth on the defensive line
During the 2019 run, this is what the 49ers built their team identity on. While nothing will come close to the 49ers vaunted 2019 DL, featuring DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Dee Ford - the 49ers could similarly build their identity around the pillars at DL.
Nick Bosa returning is a massive boon, and he should also enable Arik Armstead to be more effective in all facets of the game. The 49ers certainly hope that a 2nd year Javon Kinlaw can be more effective, and although I have my own reserved thoughts on that, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. DJ Jones remains an effective one-technique, and Maurice Hurst is a quality interior pass rusher at the three-technique spot. Hurst was a steal. Kentavius Street has also reportedly looked quite good in camp, although that may change when the pads come on.
At edge rusher, things get more complicated. Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa are the base starters, but Samson Ebukam has got the bulk of reps opposite Bosa when there are sub-packages. Dee Ford is also “healthy”, in the sense that he’s able to play. While we don’t know whether Ford is healthy enough to be effective, today was the first day that Ford participated in team drills, a surprise, but a welcome one. Arden Key has been very good since Day 1 of camp, and earned himself first team reps after Ebukam got a day off. Key had at least one sack in three consecutive days, before working with the 1st team today. Key also had a strip-sack and recovery for TD on Saturday. He looks to be pushing for a roster spot, and possibly more - and has an advantage over his main competition in Jordan Willis, which is that he’s available for the first six weeks of the season as well. Key was a top five pick after his record-breaking sophomore season at LSU, so he possesses all of the talent, but needed to mature. Perhaps the combination of being cut and being paired with Kris Kocurek has brought out the best in Arden Key. Reminder: Key was the best pass rusher in college football at one point, and that was with Myles Garrett in the same conference. In 12 games, Key posted some astounding numbers.
56 tackles
12 sacks (school record)
14.5 TFLs
54 pressures (led SEC)
2 forced fumbles
3 passes defensed
After that, things came crashing down for Key, as he wasn’t able to control his weight and this continued early in his career with the Raiders. But even then, he’s still flashed pass rush ability.
Overall, the pads coming on at camp should illuminate some of the key positional battles on this roster. As Shanhana alluded to, 5 days is not enough to make any judgement, but it is enough to judgee trajectory, and there are clearly some winners after 5 days. It is up to these players to determine if that trajectory continues.
Impressed by your work as always.
The sight of Lance standing on the sidelines week 1 will be tough. Every time jimmy makes a mistake, the sound of people calling for lance will only grow. Jimmy has to be dang near perfect all season to keep his job. Every week that goes by Lance gets better. That's a tough spot for jimmy.
Kinlaw talking about the game alowing down for him is awesome news but his knee is a constant worry with him. Is this the week it flares back up and has to get drained again. It tempers my belief in his level of success and that sucks. He got great tools and his size alone is a advantage to wear down olines.
If Sanu stays healthy, we gonna win the WR3 job. Kyle knows him to well and he in great shape and more importantly he injury free. He may be a little slower on the deep routes but in the RZ and on 3rds, his smarts will be a saving grace.
Good job containing your enthusiasm surrounding Key.