Analyzing offensive performance: What do the advanced stats tell us about Shanahan's 49ers?
A position-by-position stat analysis of the 49ers offense.
The most important stretch of the season is now for the 49ers - sitting at 6-6 and teetering on the edge of a wild card spot, playoff hopes hang in the balance. 538 gives the 49ers a 61% chance to make the playoffs currently. A win against Cincinnati would jump those odds to 79%. A loss? Down to 46%.
NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund shares a similar outlook - calling the 49ers bout with Cincinnati this weekend the most important regular season game currently remaining.
Of the 300,000 simulations I ran for every game this week, this tilt between San Francisco and Cincinnati is the closest matchup, with the Bengals topping the 49ers in just 51.9 percent of simulations. This could also easily swing to the Niners winning in 52.3 percent of simulations based on who's active (Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel’s game-day status are both in question, for example). The outcome of this coin-flip game will cause some major ripples within both conferences. Entering Week 14, the 49ers made the playoffs in 67.7 percent of simulations; a win this weekend increases their playoff chances to 70.3 percent, while a loss drops them down to just 60.4 percent.
So entering this pivotal game, it’s important to understand exactly how the 49ers offense has performed til now. It remains a fair question to ask if the 49ers are good enough to make noise during the playoffs… if they even reach there. Let’s go position-by-position.
QB
Prior to the season, the majority of 49ers fans would have expected to see two names prominently featured here - Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance. Instead, the former has kept his hold on the job, despite Lance even getting a full start.
The reason for Garoppolo keeping his job isn’t a reason… it’s many. Many simply chalk up Garoppolo’s continued job security to Lance’s perceived “rawness” - a veteran presence is more valuable when trying to contend for the playoffs and beyond. Others believe the 49ers want to maximize Garoppolo’s trade value by showcasing him. Indeed, John Lynch has even said that Garoppolo playing well and maximizing his trade return would be an ideal scenario.
While these may be the main reasons, there are others as well - Garoppolo is still a leader in the locker room, the 49ers could have planned to redshirt Trey Lance the entire season no matter what, the list goes on. There’s plenty of evidence for all of this. It’s not just one reason.
But how has Garoppolo actually played this season? One side of 49ers land would have you believe he’s been a very good QB, maximizing “efficiency”. The other would have you believe that he’s been worthy of benching. These are polarizing times, and the truth lies in the middle. Garoppolo has had good moments this season, but not enough, and has still not eliminated the issues that still plague his game.
Let’s start with data summarizing the bigger picture.
Jimmy Garoppolo has an independent passer rating of 97.6. (16th among qualifiers)
IQR takes into account both dropped passes and dropped INTs for a more accurate outlook on a QB’s play. Garoppolo is basically dead-average in this category so far this season, just behind (irony) Mac Jones, and just ahead of Russell Wilson who has finally shown major signs of decline.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been pressured on just 28.1% of his dropbacks. (6th lowest among qualifiers)
Let’s be clear, credit should be given to Garoppolo. Although the OL has protected Garoppolo this season and he hasn’t seen a crazy amount of pressure regardless, a large portion of this is scheme-based and Garoppolo-based. His quick release paired with the heavily short-oriented pass game that Shanahan deploys with Garoppolo under center is a big reason that this is lower. To quantify this:
Jimmy Garoppolo averages 2.66 seconds from snap to release. (T-7th fastest among qualifiers)
From the moment he arrived in Santa Clara, the quick release has been the ace up Jimmy’s sleeve, saving him against an unblocked rusher and allowing him to be late on decisions. That has not changed, as he still ranks among tops in the league. However, it is not just Garoppolo’s quick mechanics. This is heavily scheme based. Players up there with Garoppolo include Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, and Tom Brady. An interesting group of names. How much is Garoppolo and how much is the scheme? Ultimately, both impact each other and it doesn’t matter - the result is the same. Less sacks, but also less longer-developing routes thrown to.
Jimmy Garoppolo has a total QBR of 56.3. (10th among qualifiers)
ESPN calculates QBR for each QB using a unique method that tries to isolate what a QB does in comparison to his teammates, attempting to assign proper credit. It considers context, even adjusting for strength of defense faced. No stat is perfect, but QBR suggests Garoppolo has been quite good this season in comparison to his peers and with context. This is good. The next stat is not.
Jimmy Garoppolo has the worst turnover-worthy play to big-time throw ratio in the NFL. (32nd among qualifiers)
We’ve known Garoppolo is terrible in this category but league-worst? Yeah, that checks out. The fact is that Garoppolo continues to attempt an easy difficulty of pass while still throwing far too many interceptable passes. For all the talk about Lance possibly making rookie mistakes if he plays, Garoppolo still does make rookie mistakes.
Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging 7.5 air yards per pass attempt. (T-11th shortest among qualifiers)
It’s certainly an improvement over past seasons for the 5th year Niners QB, and if it was paired with less turnover-worthy plays or more big-time throws, this would be acceptable if not encouraged. But it’s not. This contributes to some of the most egregious instances of stacking the box that you will ever see, along with Garoppolo’s unwillingness and lack of ability to challenge the sidelines and stretch the field out.
Jimmy Garoppolo has an independent passer rating of 61.9 when throwing to targets lined up outside the numbers. (33rd among qualifiers)
Simply put, teams know what’s coming when playing the 49ers passing game. It’s not going to go downfield, and it’s not going to go outside the numbers. And because the 49ers run the ball so much, it makes the defense’s job clear: “muddy up the middle”.
The fact is that Garoppolo has been largely the same QB he’s always been this season. The decision-making is still poor, the quick decision making is still there, and the short to intermediate accuracy over the middle is still quite good. He still lacks mobility and the ability to extend plays and he does panic when play structure falls out of place. More on that tomorrow, with a film breakdown coming.
Before we move on to the RB section, it would be irresponsible to not at least discuss Trey Lance. Lance has only got continued, consistent snaps twice - the second half of the Seahawks game, and the Cardinals game. Many 49ers fans were encouraged but many also discouraged, as Lance showed elite pocket presence paired with some rookie mistakes and efficiency issues. However, those may be overblown in comparison with his rookie counterparts.
Small sample size is there for Lance, but one could reasonably assume that the current sample size hurts Lance, as most of the rookies have gotten better with more playing time this season.
Trey Lance has a 60.0 PFF grade on the season. (3rd among 2021 1st round QBs)
Trey Lance has an independent passer rating of 103.8. (1st among 2021 1st round QBs)
Trey Lance has a completion percentage over expectation of -10.9. (Last among 2021 1st round QBs)
Trey Lance has an on-target percentage of 74.4%. (2nd among 2021 1st round QBs)
Trey Lance has been pressured on 46.7% of his dropbacks. (1st among 2021 1st round QBs)
It’s a mixed bag, but there are certainly a lot of positives to look forward to with Lance. His accuracy still needs work but batted passes and throwaways heavily weigh his small sample size down when it comes to completion. Overall, yes, his accuracy is still something to improve, but it’s not that bad in comparison to other rookie QBs. Context matters - all of them will likely get better in that regard as they get used to the NFL.
RB
Elijah Mitchell. That’s it, let’s move on.
OK, in all seriousness, Mitchell has been shockingly good this season. Continuing the tradition of late-drafted/UDFA Shanahan RBs turning into stars, Mitchell has taken over for Mostert as the speed back and hasn't looked back, despite him not even being the 1st RB taken in the draft by the Niners (I’m looking at you, Trey Sermon).
Elijah Mitchell has 759 rushing yards this season. (10th)
Despite battling injuries both to himself and to his OL, Mitchell has kept his legs moving and has chunk-gained himself to a top 10 spot in the league.
Elijah Mitchell averages +0.53 actual rush yards over expected rushing yards per attempt. (9th among qualifiers)
Mitchell, considering what he’s been given both in blocking and in the defense’s that he faces, has performed admirably. I do think Mitchell’s vision especially when he reaches the second and third level can improve, there have been multiple instances where he cuts inside when he had an open lane on the outside. But overall, Mitchell has been great for the 49ers when it comes to being a consistent, solid RB (on extremely high usage).
Elijah Mitchell has caught all of his 17 catchable targets this season.
Elijah Mitchell sees a stacked box (8 or more defenders) on 40% of his carries. (2nd among qualifiers)
If you want to know why he sees such a high rate, look no further than:
The 49ers run the ball on 1st down on 58% of plays. (3rd highest)
Shanahan’s predictable playcalling on early downs, paired with Garoppolo’s previously mentioned inability to stress a defense and make them pay for stacking the box, makes Mitchell’s job a lot harder.
What about the other RBs? Simply put, there’s not a lot to talk about. Mitchell has been the bell-cow in a scheme traditionally known for the RB carousel. Sermon has been both inconsistent and injured, and so has Raheem Mostert. However, there are positives:
Trey Sermon forces a missed tackle or breaks a tackle on 14.6% of his attempts, 1st among 49ers RBs. (For reference: Dalvin Cook forces a missed or broken tackle on 13.5% of his attempts).
Sermon has not been nearly as bad as his lack of usage would suggest. But while he still isn’t nearly the player Mitchell is, he’s still shown some encouraging signs.
JaMycal Hasty has also been solid in the passing game, he’s caught 13 of 14 catchable targets and forced two missed tackles on those receptions.
WR
Deebo Samuel has been nothing short of transcendent this season. Doing damage from nearly every spot on the field, he’s been arguably an OPOY-level player and he’s going to get paid handsomely for it. Just how good has he been?
Deebo Samuel is averaging 18 yards per reception. (3rd in the NFL)
Deebo Samuel has 10 rushing and receiving TDs. (T-6th in the NFL)
Deebo Samuel has 1209 yards from scrimmage. (5th in the NFL)
Deebo Samuel is averaging 14.9 yards per touch. (1st in the NFL)
Deebo Samuel is averaging 3.1 yards per route run. (1st in the NFL)
And he’s ranked so high… despite missing last Sunday’s game against the Seahawks.
He’s taken the step, and many more. He’s turned into an all-purpose weapon and although he still has inconsistencies (9 drops on the season), Samuel’s route running, pure WR ability, and ball tracking has clearly improved. This paired with his already lethal YAC ability and physicality has yielded one of the most unstoppable forces this season. The question is once the 49ers pay him… can he stay healthy? Regardless, Samuel has answered every question about his game this season.
But there’s more to the WR corps. Brandon Aiyuk, not Deebo Samuel, was expected to take the massive leap to WR1 status this season. Unfortunately, that got put on hold early this season with his benching and lack of touches, reportedly because of effort issues in practice. Many have attributed his poor play early in season to a statistic showing his “lack of separation” - this is extremely misleading. The number tossed around (which was low) was average separation at time of target… meaning Aiyuk when targeted wasn’t open very often, at least early in the season. Aiyuk was still getting open when he wasn’t being targeted.
Whatever the case was for his early season struggles, they are gone now. He’s come on strong as of late, and even with an off game against Seattle, he still has a bright future on this team. Since the 49ers loss to Indianapolis on SNF, Aiyuk has seen his production across the board go up. In fact…
Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers in receiving yards (391) since Week 8. This also ranks 10th in the NFL among all receivers.
There’s no doubt that Aiyuk is one of the most talented players on the team. Once Aiyuk works through this slump, he should become a great weapon on this team.
How about the other WRs? Mohamed Sanu is the 3rd leading WR for the 49ers this season, with 177 receiving yards on the season, but he’s had two drops on 15 catchable targets, which even as a small sample size is terrible. It’s not all bad - Sanu also leads the 49ers in defensive pass interference penalties drawn, showing his veteran savvy. Jauan Jennings is coming on strong as of late, and of 9 catchable targets, he’s caught 8.
For all that was said about Trent “Meatball Time” Sherfield during the offseason, he’s fallen off during the regular season (predictably, but also sadly).
Trent Sherfield is averaging 0.7 yards per route run this season. (last among 49ers receivers with at least one reception)
TE and FB
George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk, as per usual, are doing their jobs at a level worthy of more recognition than they get. Kittle hasn’t impacted the passing game nearly as much as many would have expected, but he’s still elite in this category.
George Kittle is averaging 2.7 yards per route run this season. (1st among TEs)
When Kittle is involved in the passing game, there isn’t a player more effective in the NFL. He’s still the dominant threat that broke records just a couple years ago.
George Kittle is graded at 90.7 by PFF this season. (1st among TEs)
In terms of blocking, it’s hard to gauge this with data - but PFF’s blocking grades are the closest one will get. It’s hard to find someone more effective than Kittle in this regard, not only is he one of the best receiving TEs in football, he’s the best blocking TE, hands down.
George Kittle has 5 receiving TDs this season. (5th among TEs)
The red-zone production is finally starting to show up for Kittle, and the reason it wasn’t there in the past is simply because… he wasn’t targeted. Shanahan is beginning to look for Kittle in the end zone and it’s paying off.
George Kittle forces a missed/broken tackle on 31.8% of his receptions. (1st among TEs)
George Kittle has 185 yards after contact this season. (2nd among TEs)
George Kittle averages 2.5 yards after catch over expectation. (1st among TEs, 5th among all receivers).
Kittle is still the premier YAC weapon at TE in football, and somehow, he’s not even the best on his own team (Deebo Samuel is insane). The 49ers need to get Kittle involved even more in the passing attack, even if it means manufacturing targets - the workload has been too heavily reliant on Deebo Samuel and it runs a risk of getting Samuel banged up - in fact, it already has. Samuel missed Week 13 and is questionable for Week 14.
Kittle has been incredibly reliable this season, with a drop rate of just 2%, 2nd lowest among TEs with at least 50 targets.
What about the other TEs on the roster? Only 11 targets have gone to TEs not named George Kittle this season, 6 to 2nd year TE Charlie Woerner, and 5 to Ross Dwelley. Woerner has caught 5/6 catchable targets, and Dwelley has caught 4/4 catchable targets. When Woerner is blocking, 49ers RBs average 2.8 yards before contact - best among any blocker on the team. He’s taken steps forward as a blocker, now he needs to continue to develop as a pass catcher.
As for Kyle Juszczyk, no words need to be said about his blocking ability. His pass-catching needs to be utilized more, but Juszczyk has caught 23/25 of his catchable targets this season and for what he is paid paired with his unique skillset (route-running and blocking), Juszczyk can be even more involved. He’s already 4th on the 49ers in receiving yards but that’s not his ceiling.
OL
Trent Williams is the best LT in the NFL. It’s not close.
Trent Williams has a 98.4 PFF grade on the season. This is the highest PFF grade ever recorded for any position in any year if it holds.
Williams has arguably been the best player in the NFL at any position this season. He should be the frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year if such awards acknowledged offensive linemen. He has allowed 14 pressures in 11 games, and his tape in the run game is like a teaching clinic of deleting defenders from the point of attack and single-handedly invalidating run fits on defense. Nobody has more highlight-reel blocks than Williams this season. He looks set to finish atop the PFF rankings for offensive tackles for the second consecutive year.
Laken Tomlinson has been solid this year as well, posting a 71.6 PFF grade which is 16th for his position. Alex Mack has posted a 69.1 PFF grade, which is also 16th for his position. Daniel Brunskill has been weak this season, posting just a 63.9 PFF grade which would rank 38th among 80 qualifying guards.
Finally, in replacement of Mike McGlinchey who was having a solid season again, albeit not the season that people want from a 9th overall pick - Tom Compton has surprisingly been OK for a backup OT, posting a 74.6 PFF grade which ranks 28th for his position.
In general, the offensive line has been quite solid this season. OL play around the league has hit lower and lower standards each year, but Williams’ sheer dominance paired with good play from Tomlinson and Mack still makes this OL a good unit.