What to watch for during OTAs + Yes, the 49ers should look at Julio Jones.
What are specific things to watch for in training camp, from snap counts to footwork. Plus Julio Jones - Looking at him doesn't mean trading for him, but the 49ers should definitely do the former.
Santa Clara, CA - With OTAs beginning, not much can be gleaned from practice videos and completion percentage in seven on sevens and eleven on elevens. But there is quite a bit you can start to shape an understanding around, especially when projecting a roster, depth chart, and eventually performance. There are things to keep track of during camp, especially with snap counts, positional battles, and rookie adjustment/performance.
Snap counts and first-team reps
While you might think I’m referring to Lance, which in part, I am, this is also more about the open competitions that we will see.
Not much can be gleaned from how they play in OTAs and camp, but you can shape an idea from snap counts - often a reflection of what a coach believes. The snap distribution and first-team rep count for these players will be important to watch.
Returners
Aiyuk can be a very good returner, but do the 49ers want to risk their WR1 on special teams where if even one injury happens to their WR corps, they are starting one of River Cracraft or Richie James Jr? I’m just not sure that it’s safe right now. Travis Benjamin and Richie James Jr should get a lot of run at KR as well, and don’t forget Kevin White, another guy that could get a shot at KR, as his snaps last season mostly came on special teams as well. But again, Aiyuk’s injury concerns aside, he averaged 32 yards per kick return and 16 yards per punt return during his time at Arizona State. He definitely has the ability to be a big-time returner.
As for the other side, who will return punts? Ambry Thomas has been a name floated, but expect Richie James Jr, Travis Benjamin, and others to get reps.
Trey Lance, QB
Lance is mostly fine mechanics-wise, as detailed in multiple breakdowns we’ve done on him dating back to last November. He was my pick from the start. However, he does get lackadaisical with his footwork when throwing downfield, specifically with an overstride which can lead to overthrows. He has reduced it tremendously in multiple workout videos and his two pro-days, but it will be something to watch. Another interesting observation from our charting done pre-draft - Lance was far more accurate from under center than in the shotgun, and his base/overstride issues do seem to appear more often from the shotgun. A grain of salt must be taken with all “practice” reports - Lance is rusty, this is the first real organized football he’s played since last August, and he’s a different player from 2 years ago. Still, it will be interesting to watch how he does with the backups to begin with. Lance was 10/15 in his first practice, while Garoppolo was 11/15 - quite good. A lot has been made of an overthrow that he made during camp on Monday, but all one needs to do is listen to Kyle Shanahan on why it really shouldn’t be made into something big.
Trey Sermon, RB
Wilson Jr. injured his meniscus sometime recently and got surgery, and it was reported yesterday when he wasn’t seen at camp. Sermon’s playstyle is almost identical and he can easily fill in for Wilson, but considering what the 49ers invested in Sermon - a 3rd round pick, is Sermon going to get more snaps than you expect for a rookie? Clearly, Shanahan values him quite a bit. And rightfully so. Sermon was outstanding at both Oklahoma and Ohio State during his time in college, a powerful, physical runner with good acceleration and even the ability to hurdle people. He reminds me so much of Nick Chubb, a guy that seems to always run through the first tackler.
Aaron Banks, RG
Banks looks to fill in right away as the new starting right guard next to Mike McGlinchey on this team, but how good will he be out of the gate? He was polished and very consistent at Notre Dame, which bodes well for his NFL future, but something to watch will be how he moves during practice - is he lagging behind the rest of the lighter guards, or is he keeping up? Another will be how he responds to NFL strength - Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw are a lot stronger than the typical player that Banks has had to block.
The WR battle
There are three locks to make the roster in terms of WRs - Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Richie James Jr. After that, it’s a free-for-all. Anyone has a shot at the the minimum two remaining WR spots, likely three. It’s between:
Jalen Hurd
Mohamed Sanu
Trent Sherfield
River Cracraft
Travis Benjamin
Kevin White
Jauan Jennings
Austin Watkins
I don’t expect Watkins nor Sanu to make this roster. The latter may surprise you, but Sanu was utterly ineffective in a short stint with SF last season, and he was ineffective in New England the season before, to the point that New England released him, despite having traded a second round pick the year before. He’s not what he was, and what he was in previous years was a slow, decent WR2 or WR3. Mohamed Sanu ran a 4.62 40 yard dash at the combine almost a decade ago, since then, he’s most definitely lost, not gained speed. I struggle to see how he would be effective as an actual player, though I believe that his locker room presence and vet leadership as the oldest player in the WR room could certainly be a factor if he did make the roster.
As for Austin Watkins, Watkins is talented and was quite productive at UAB, but he’s had consistently bad reviews in the short rookie minicamp and yesterday’s OTAs. He’s not helping his case, hopefully he turns it around.
So that leaves Jalen Hurd, Trent Sherfield, River Cracaft, Jauan Jennings, Travis Benjamin and Kevin White. Battling for likely around three roster spots.
Personally, my guess that the three that make the roster are Jalen Hurd, Jauan Jennings, and… Trent Sherfield. While I would love for Kevin White to surprise everyone, or River Cracaft to break out, the likeliest scenario is that Hurd makes the roster even if he doesn’t play that well in camp - the 49ers will want to see what they have in him after investing a 3rd rounder. Jennings has reportedly looked better in both the minicamp and the first day of OTAs, and just off talent alone, can stake a case for a roster spot.
After that, it gets muddy, but I see Trent Sherfield winning out. Sherfield is fast, decent-sized, and most of all - has real NFL experience. Cracraft had a couple games, Sherfield has played three seasons already. I expect Kevin White and Travis Benjamin to challenge here as well, but Sherfield has the clear-leg up both based on experience and also in real in-game production. Benjamin has not been effective in years, White is a complete unknown, and Cracraft wasn’t impressive in limited snaps last season. Sherfield isn’t an amazing player by any means, but he can play slot or outside and has experience. This spot could also go to Sanu, but I think the 49ers won’t keep three “big WRs” in Sanu, Hurd, Jennings.
Julio Jones is possible. He makes sense. Yes, the 49ers should look into trading for him.
We need to dispel a couple of really egregious narratives that I’ve seen on Julio Jones.
No, Julio Jones is not expensive in terms of the salary cap. He is expensive to Atlanta, but to the team that trades for him, he will be paid (again, by the team that trades for him, not total)
2021: $15.3M
2022: $11.5M
2023: $11.5M
In addition, while his 2021 salary is fully guaranteed, 2022 only has $2M guaranteed, and 2023 has no money guaranteed at all. He’s low risk and extremely cost-effective considering the player he is, with regards to the salary cap.
No, Julio Jones is not injury-prone and washed. Jones was one of the healthiest players in football over the past decade - from 2014 to 2019, Jones missed just four games. Now, recently, he had a hamstring issue that lingered throughout 2020 and caused him to miss 7 games. However, when he did play, he was still extremely effective, averaging 85.7 receiving yards per game in his 9 games played this season. Jones is without a doubt, a top five WR in the NFL, and even as a 30+ year old, future decline factored in, is more than worth the salary that he will be paid by whoever trades for him. It’s far more likely that Jones’ injury concerns were a one-time thing, as he’s historically one of the most reliable players ever. Jones is incredible productive and remains so even as ATL endured coaching changes, inconsistent offensive scheme, inconsistent QB play, and more.
Again, Jones production was right in line with his normal production last season. He’s not washed, and he’s only seeing a slight decline in play. As long as the hamstring injury doesn’t linger, there should be nothing, nothing to question about the play of Jones. He averages the most yards per game in NFL history.
So in short, yes, there should be no question and I am quite sure that the 49ers front office is debating this right now, if they haven’t already inquired. The price, specifically to acquire, will be the key sticking point, and how the 49ers fit Jones onto the cap. The 49ers after rookie contracts are signed will have roughly about 10M left, which obviously is not enough for Jones. Could they restructure Garoppolo and move some of the salary to next year? Absolutely. Could they trade a player in addition with a draft pick to Atlanta? Absolutely.
We don’t know what it could or will be, but I can say this with conviction: when Julio Jones could be had for a 2nd round pick, it needs to be considered. Atlanta’s reported asking price is a 1st round pick, but they aren’t likely to get that - the Falcons cap scenario is among the worst in the league which does not leave them much of a choice with regards to Jones, and we now also know that Jones had requested a trade earlier. The Falcons have been trying to move him since Arthur Smith took over, and while we don’t know the timeline of what came first, we know that the Falcons aren’t exactly the ones with leverage in negotiations. A 2nd round pick is likely what most teams would offer for Jones, but then again, you can’t rule out a team like the Patriots or Ravens giving up more in desperation.
It also needs to be said: while Brandon Aiyuk could definitely and probably will be an outstanding WR1 in the future, we don’t know how quickly that ascension will happen. Young quarterbacks having established, star WR1s to throw to is one of the key situational factors to a young QBs success.
Look at recent history:
Carson Wentz had (at one point) an elite Alshon Jeffery.
Patrick Mahomes has Tyreek Hill.
DeShaun Watson had DeAndre Hopkins.
Lamar Jackson had… nobody.
Josh Allen was bad for his first couple of seasons, but as soon as the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs, became an MVP candidate.
Kyler Murray has DeAndre Hopkins.
Justin Herbert has Keenan Allen.
Having a true WR1, one that is established, is key to a young QBs development. Adding Jones would be invaluable for Trey Lance. It’s not just about the contention and helping Jimmy/Trey out this season, Jones’ cost-effectiveness and proven production (Even with decline factored in) would be huge for the following two years where Lance is presumably the starter. And if he does fall off a cliff, which I highly doubt, the 49ers could cut or move him with almost no effect on their cap because of his low guaranteed money that the 49ers, specifically, are on the hook for.
The 49ers paid a third round pick and a fourth round pick for less than a season of Emmanuel Sanders. I find it hard to believe that they wouldn’t consider a 2nd, even with the picks already given up in future years, for Julio Jones - who, spoiler alert, would likely make that 2nd round pick closer to an early 3rd round pick.
You may think that Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle is enough. And they are. When healthy. The problem is that Deebo and Kittle, like it or not, miss a lot of games. If one of them goes down for an extended period of time, the 49ers are now relying on Richie James Jr or one of the fringe WRs above to step up. Many complained about the WR depth during the 2019 title run, this is comparable to that. For those that blamed Jimmy G’s performance in Week 1 of 2020 on lack of good WRs, also comparable. “He only had one WR and Kittle”. Jones is insurance that also helps towards a title run.
Should the 49ers trade for Jones? If the price is right, yes.
If we can get Julio for next years 2nd and our other 3rd I'm all for it. We can make up for the loss of draft capital with solid to outstanding vet FA's and take advantage of our rookie QB's contract. It all works out.