Three down in three weeks. How do the 49ers recover from already being hit with injuries? Plus, why Javon Kinlaw is the key to the defense.
4th year safety Tarvarius Moore, along with swing tackle Justin Skule were injured on Monday.
Santa Clara, CA - At one point, is it more than bad luck? It’s a question. And it’s really a simple equation:
Since the 2013 season, the 49ers have been the 2nd most injured team in pro football. It’s a damning statistic and one that really captures the nature of the ups and downs that the 49ers have seen over the past decade. From 2-14 to 13-3 in a 4 year span, it’s hard to find a more volatile team, and it stems directly from the injury issue that has plagued this franchise.
2021 doesn’t look to be a fresh start.
Jeff Wilson Jr, talented RB and “dark place” dweller tore his meniscus while standing up a couple weeks ago. Then, yesterday during OTAs, Tarvarius Moore went down with a torn achilles. That might be the worst injury that a safety in the mold of Moore can have. If that wasn’t enough, swing tackle Justin Skule tore his ACL on Monday as well.
ACL, meniscus, achilles. There have been eight total season-ending type injuries that have occurred since OTAs began. Three of them are 49ers players.
The question should no longer be about luck. It should be about what other teams are doing different. Football is a violent sport that will have a lot of injuries, but simply put, being the 2nd most injured team over a seven year sample size is not something that can be assumed to be luck. Could it be luck? For sure. It also cannot be assumed. It’s troubling. And it must be asked: at one point do the 49ers re-evaluate their strength and conditioning staff? Because something is clearly wrong. Something needs to change. There’s a saying: those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The 49ers have seen this pattern before. Whether the issues stem from the training staff is a whole different conversation - one that is hard to summarize. These issues have been bad since the final days of Jim Harbaugh, they’ve only persisted through Tomsula, Kelly, and now Shanahan. Multiple strength and conditioning coaches, different players, different rosters - one constant, injuries. Perhaps the problem does lie with the training staff, but this isn’t an issue that has been solved by new training staff being hired. It’s likely something else, or a constant that isn’t known to the public.
Health is the single most important thing to a team. It’s not a coincidence that the Buccaneers - now defending champions - were the healthiest team in pro football in 2020.
It’s a minor miracle that the three positions that have been hit so far with major injuries - RB, OT, and S - are all positions that the 49ers fortified through free agency and the draft this offseason even through scrutiny for doing so, including from me.
The question is now, how do the 49ers deal with these injuries?
For Skule, the replacement is on-roster - Shon Coleman or Jaylon Moore will have to step up. For Tarvarius Moore, it’s more complicated. None of the safeties on this roster, outside of Jimmie Ward, the presumptive starter, are natural free safeties. Tony Jefferson might be the closest, and not sure that he’s the one we need to rely on as depth. Logically, the best option is to sign Malik Hooker, former 1st round pick and talented albeit oft-injured free safety. Hooker has been great when on the field but has struggled to stay on it. It’s cruel irony that the replacement for an injured safety is another injury-prone one, but Hooker is pretty clearly the best option.
There are a couple of takeaways from these injuries. The 49ers cannot afford to lose Jimmie Ward or any of their starting tackles. Either of those scenarios would deal massive hits to the 49ers contending chances this season. Ward is the last remaining true FS on this roster, as mentioned earlier - and he’s also the insurance at slot CB. He’s the key on the back-end of the secondary. And with losing Skule, who already was below-average at best in 2020, the 49ers already have extremely thin depth at tackle. Brunskill could likely handle tackle, but the 49ers cannot see another key offensive lineman go down.
Javon Kinlaw: X-Factor?
The 2nd year defensive tackle had a below average rookie season, to say the least. It was expected, as Kinlaw’s “rawness” was made clear throughout the draft process and even after. But Kinlaw, fully recovered from a knee injury, has reportedly lit it up in training camp, earning raving reviews from anyone and everyone. Now, it is “best shape of his life” season, but these are positive signs nonetheless. Kinlaw needs to have a massive 2nd year jump, one that removes any doubt of selecting him so high in the 2020 draft. Not only does he need it for his career (the longer it takes to breakout, the less likelier it gets), the 49ers need it as well.
Nick Bosa is recovering from his second torn ACL dating back to his senior year in high school. Durability issues have plagued Bosa for his entire career: torn ACL, core muscle injury, groin injury, high-ankle sprain, torn ACL, cartilage damage. There’s no doubt about the type of player that Bosa is, but it remains to be seen if he will return to that level, or more likely - how quickly will he return to that level?
The 49ers are optimistic about Dee Ford possibly playing this season. I’m less hopeful. Even if Ford does play, it’s highly unlikely that Ford will be effective.
Dee Ford in 2019, prior to initial injury:
222 snaps
13.8 snaps per pressure
34 snaps per sack
27.7 snaps per hurry
Dee Ford in 2019, after initial injury (plus one game in 2020):
148 snaps
29.6 snaps per pressure
148 snaps per sack
148 snaps per hurry
We aren’t even going to look at run defense for Ford - it’s never been his forte. PFF also supports this outlook on Ford post-injury, Ford’s grade during the 2019 playoffs, his last stretch of consistent snaps, was not good to say the least. I very much hope that Ford surprises me, but it remains to be seen whether Ford can even return, let alone return to effective play level.
Arik Armstead is coming off an OK season. It was not good in the pass-rush department, but Armstead as usual was a stalwart in the run-game and did contribute somewhat in terms of getting push while pass-rushing. Armstead is a candidate to bounce back, especially with Nick Bosa coming back, and although his contract is a whole different story, Armstead is going to be an impact player in 2021.
The 49ers have also added a lot of new blood to the DL, specifically in the EDGE room. New EDGE rusher Samson Ebukam is the presumable Dee Ford replacement, and Ebukam in limited sample size has been quite good rushing the passer. The question is: why did the Rams not let him do it more? The Rams haven’t had a bookend pass-rusher next to Aaron Donald for quite some time, and have been looking for EDGE help in many places. Ebukam can be effective, but there are question marks. Outside of him, the 49ers most notably brought in two Raiders imports - Maurice Hurst and Arden Key. The former has been a good interior DL since entering the league, and although he has heart issues that limit his snap count, he's no doubt going to be an impact player on the DL. Key… is more complicated. Key was the master of the almost-sack in Las Vegas, and his performance has seemingly declined every year since his incredible sophomore season at LSU where he was legitimately the best pass-rusher in college football. On top of that, although Key seems to have solved his off-field issues, he’s become infamous for costly penalties. DeShaun Watson getting kicked in the helmet and throwing a TD play? That was Arden Key that almost got the sack. Instead, it ended in infamy. The unbelievable Ryan Fitzpatrick no-look/facemask deep bomb? You guessed it, there’s Arden Key again.
There’s talent there. The 49ers actually gave Key a bit of guaranteed money, which suggests they may think the same.
If Kris Kocurek can refine Key and coax out the once-considered #1 overall pick talent from him, the 49ers could definitely have a useful pass-rusher on their hands. We know what Mo Hurst is, a very effective interior DL, but Key could also be something.
Zach Kerr is also a very good interior DL, and don’t forget about Kevin Givens, who played well in limited snaps last season. Jordan Willis also flashed ability after the 49ers traded for him last season.
What is the point of summarizing all of the DL on this team? It’s to make a point. It’s talented, but if Kinlaw plays like he did last season, it’s almost entirely relying on Nick Bosa to come back with a vengeance. I don’t know if that’s a winning strategy. This DL isn’t as talented as 2019, though I didn’t need to tell you that. The problem is that neither is the secondary. The secondary is young, not deep, and injury-prone across the entire board. They need a pass-rush to help them out.
Kinlaw stepping up would be absolutely tremendous for a defense that needs a dominant interior presence to replace the 6 foot 7 inch hole left by DeForest Buckner. Kinlaw needs to show up, and the fact that he’s already receiving positive reviews bodes well for a sophomore breakout.
If Kinlaw can do the above more consistently, it will alleviate a lot of worries that I’m sure DeMeco Ryans is having right now.